Phillies Links for You: March 3, 2010
It's been a blessedly quiet Spring Training so far. Let's hope it stays that way. No news = good news.
Phils begin spring slate vs. Florida State | phillies.com: News
The Phillies will take the field as a team Wednesday for the first time in 2010, facing Florida State in an exhibition game at Bright House Field at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Live Phillies blog: Victorino update
Shane Victorino's shoulder is kinda sore, will miss tomorrow's spring opener.
Phillies payroll has risen from $27.3M in 1999 to $143.5M for 2010 | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/03/2010
This really puts a lot of things into perspective.
'Stache-stastic! Collin Balester wins offseason facial hair contest - Big League Stew
OK I was wrong, THIS dude really looks like Gordon Lightfoot.
Phillies pitcher Happ would love to rattle sabermetricians | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/03/2010
Ugh. And wow. Just wow. For extra fun, peep the Comments section.
I don't think anyone can say with a straight face that J.A. Happ is a sub-3.00 ERA starter. He's going to regress, probably to somewhere in the low to mid-4.00s in ERA. Which is absolutely fine!
Yankees' World Series Shares Cut by $15,023
At least when the PHILLIES win the World Series, they can allocate the money properly...
Ryan Howard of Phillies struggles against breaking balls - Tom Verducci
Thanks for the tip, Tom.
The Chosun Ilbo (English Edition): Park Chan-ho Has First Day as a Yankee
Outfielder Greg Golson was originally given 61, but it was handed over to Park as "part of the Yankees' plan to accommodate their newest player," the New York Times reported. Park threw 35 pitches on Tuesday, combining both fastballs and variations, and the team's staff expressed their satisfaction.
Good luck with all that.
Marson has a lot on his shoulders | MLB.com: News
With Carlos Santana well on his way, you wonder how long Lou Marson is going to stick in Cleveland.
Former pitcher throws curveballs at opponents on unemployment bill
You know, I'm glad the Phillies are good right now, so Jim Bunning's jackassery doesn't constitute the "face of the franchise" on the nightly news.
R-Phils Name Top 10 Promotions For 2010
No better place to watch a baseball game than Reading -- I mean, you have a crazy hot dog guy!!
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Comments
I always thought it was a little odd that Marson was included in the Lee trade with Santana so clearly a future star at Catcher for the Tribe.
They probably wanted someone to hold down the fort (to use an unfortunate turn-of-phrase in light of his new team’s mascot) until Santana was ready. The fact that Marson projects as a below-average starting MLB catcher is all the more puzzling.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I agree that Cleveland’s pursuit of Marson was strange because of Santana’s presence, but I have to admit that I’m not totally ready to write Marson off as a below-average starting catcher yet. There was a raging debate on Phuture Phillies the last few days regarding comparing the Lee packages, and I made the point there that Marson is still just 23, that he has room to improve, and that PECOTA already projects him as a .268/.363/.376 hitter (50th percentile). That’s a 16.5 VORP that would have put him 11th among all MLB catchers last year.
Now, I know VORP is sort of a poor measure for total value, that Marson could very well flame out, etc. But I don’t think becoming an average or even slightly above average starting catcher is out of his reach.
I think Cleveland just went after what they thought were the best players available.
I didn’t really like any of the guys they got as the centerpiece of the deal, but as a whole they got 4 guys who could all turn out to be solid contributers at the major league level that will all be under team control for 6 years. With the exception of Knapp, they all seem like pretty safe bets to be contributing (or at the very worst ready to but blocked) at the ml level this season.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
And for a team with those types of payroll constraints they have added value.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
I didn’t think Murphy’s Happ article was terrible. It was basically the same as the blog post he had on the topic a few weeks ago. His FIP-skepticism is unwarranted but it’s also pretty mild, and he at least understands how the stat is calculated, which is more than you can say about a lot of people. Also, Murphy’s and Dubee’s point about intentional unintentional walks is semi-well-taken, although I doubt that the impact of that on the overall calculation would be huge.
The comments are moronic, of course, but no surprise there.
I will have to renew my objection to Keith Law, whose rhetoric has practically set sabermetrics up to fail in the eyes of casual observers this year. Happ will probably post an ERA in the low-to-mid 4’s, which will probably give him a good W-L record and a “good season” in most people’s eyes. Of course, Law will be able to say this is consistent with what he’d said all along, which will technically be true, but because of the vehemence of his past rhetoric, it will leave an impression in many people’s minds that sabermetrics was “disproven.” Basically, he will have succeeded in making people dumber instead of smarter, which is the opposite of what a good writer is supposed to do.
I don’t take issue with Murphy’s opinion as such (like you said, at least he knows what FIP and xFIP are, and what goes into them…the horse has clearly been led to the water), it’s that the Happ quotes don’t really match up with how the story is framed. How do they expect Happ to react to a bunch of people saying he’s not really that good (or, to use a euphamism, lucky)?
To put it another way, let’s say you’re generally acknowledged within your office to be doing a good job. Along comes someone independent of your company with a new way of measuring productivity, and they tell everyone that will listen that, despite your good performance reviews, you’re really a detriment to your company and can be replaced by someone off the street. It doesn’t matter if the guy is right or wrong, your first reaction is probably that he’s full of crap and his new methods are worthless.
Happ didn’t even go that far. He basically said, “I think they (sabermatricians) are wrong about me, and I’m going to prove it.” Murphy’s building a mountain out of a molehill here, one that only exists because a few people (Law) were jumping up and down screaming what should have been simply stated – Happ will regress.
And, of course, FIP doesn’t say he’ll suck, just that he’s not sub-3 ERA good (as you said, TP). So in essence this whole thing is centered around an overreaction (the column) to an overreaction (Law) to an overreaction (Happ as ROY).
I actually appreciate what Murphy did there — it’s a step in the right direction toward educating the masses about some of the more basic sabermetric points.
We’ve had the discussion about the Law thing before, and I see your point. Personally, I just wave it off as the snark being part of his shtick; his language is intended to inflame the simpletons, and it succeeds marvelously on that front (even if it’s at the expense of framing the issue as a binomial one, between the enlightened and the idiots).
A pair of interesting articles to add to the Happ debate...
First, Tom Tango weighs in on Dubee’s idea that Happ’s walks were situational, and thus not reflected in FIP. While fully admitting the idea has credence, Tango notes:
The average walk costs a pitcher about .030 wins… David was kind enough to send me the Situational Wins for J.A. Happ’s unintentional walks. Of the 54 walks he issued, their average win value was… .030 wins! That is, his walks were NOT situational. His strikeouts tell a similar story, as the win value of Happ’s strikeouts are similar to those of the average pitcher. Where Happ did excel was not allowing many singles, doubles, and triples. In addition to that, he minimized this aspect of his game in dangerous situations. This double-whammy is where he was very successful. It explains how he was able to strand a league high 85% of his runners on base, and no one was anywhere close to that.
The other piece is from Rob Neyer, who takes the sort of conciliatory tone that, as taco pal would say, Keith Law is lacking.
Look, nobody’s saying Happ can’t pitch. In 2008, I wrote at least once that Happ should have been getting some of the innings that were going to Adam Eaton and (especially) Kyle Kendrick. Kyle Kendrick … now he was a lucky rookie (in 2007)… Every team needs a reliable No. 4 starter, but I think Happ’s better than Redman, who won more than a dozen games just once in his career. Happ doesn’t throw hard, but that big Triple-A strikeout rate does suggest that he’s deceptive (and his major-league strikeout rate is better than Redman’s, too)… The implication sometimes is that people like me don’t respect the talents of people like J.A. Happ. I don’t suppose I should speak for my colleagues, so I’ll just tell you this: J.A. Happ, lucky or not, awes me. He’s one of the most brilliant athletes on the planet, doing something that’s incredibly rare and difficult. And that’s all true whether Happ is the new Mark Redman or the new Tom Glavine.
I don’t really get the whole uproar around Happ’s regression. Like you said above, it’s obvious he isn’t a sub-3 ERA pitcher, but it’s not like advanced stats are saying he’s going to fall off a cliff and be out of the major leagues next year. He’s projected as a just about average pitcher, which is just fine for your #4 starter.
While only the Phillies know for sure how high they can push the payroll – and how much they dare continue to increase ticket prices – there are signs that a saturation point may be nearing.
Are there any reliable outlets which track what baseball teams and their owners truly make on a year to year basis, or is this a carefully guarded secret. Just curious. With all the talk about our payroll constraints next year, the debate of keeping Werth and the others, is the team really nearing the saturation point?
I found this article from Forbes last year (they come out in April), wherein they rank the value of franchises based on revenue, operating expenses, debt/value, player expenses and gate receipts. They ranked the Phils #7 in all of baseball last year in terms of overall worth. Does anyone know of any other sites or publications which give further insight as to what the team may be able to realistically spend in any given year?
Forbes link:
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/33/baseball-values-09_Philadelphia-Phillies_335119.html
Unless you have a mole in the Phillies accounting group, good luck getting any balance sheets, income statement or cash flow information. The casual fan in an uproar over payroll doesn’t take into account the debt the Phillies presumably have. They did just build a new stadium and that isn’t paid for overnight or with one WS title. It certainly helps, but no can assume they know the financial health of the Phillies based on 2 great seasons.
Forbes is probably as close you’re going to get and even that is based on assumptions that may or may not entirely reflect the Phillies financial status.
by Phils 2036 World CH on Mar 3, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Years ago Baseball Prospectus tried to get at “the business of baseball,” but it’s really hard to figure because at heart many teams are just small pocket operations in a much larger coats of many pockets. So (surprise!) it’s hard to figure—and each franchise is a bit different.
The only bottom line is that if you/your company/your group has the cash to manage the day-to-day, the net worth piece of this makes it a fine investment. Now, that was in the early 2000s, so that assumption may well be unsustainable depending upon the depth of this current recession. I’ve noted before that Phillies fans have a skewed view of the industry — that I’d bet there were 20+ organizations out there last year that failed to fill seats anywhere near what they budgeted for, which also likely means that ad rates across the board are subject to (lower) renegotiation at a time when salaries continue to increase. So if you don’t have cash + can’t demonstrate that you have, in fact, an appreciating asset, borrowing to cover your increasing liabilities will be at best more expensive, at worst impossible. It’s as simple and as difficult as trying to justify how a family of four can shell out $200+retail for a Tuesday night in May. We may be approaching late-Soviet era unsustainabilit
I really think they should just turn off comments on Philly.com. What value are they? It’s consistently a cesspool.
They occupy time. Any time somebody spends posting on philly.com is time they’re not on the streets…
I can say that online newspaper bulletin boards have disabused me of any notion I might have ever had that racism is an overstated problem in modern-day American society. So there’s some value there, I guess.
That’s another problem. If you’re going to have these comment sections, it’s your responsibility to moderate them and they really don’t.
I’m sure seeing the comments section allows editors of opinion pages to feel superior in providing a product that does not contain virulent racist rants.
“Look! Our editorial value exists! You should pay us for it! (and continue to pay our monopoly rates on classified legal advertising, which subsidizes our editorial value add).”
sigh
Go away, newspapers.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 3, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Incidentally...
People probably already know this, but anyone itching for Phils baseball can find the radio feed for the Phils/FSU game here.
http://www.seminoles.com/multimedia/baseball.html
The Noles are #3 in the country, so they aren’t exactly pushovers.

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