Roy Halladay: Will He Help Our Schedule Issues?

by David S. Cohen on Mar 5, 2010 3:37 PM EST

Ask any informed fan about the Phillies' woes based on the schedule, and you're likely to get two answers: 1) the team sucks out of the gate, and 2) the team really suffers during interleague play. Looking at the team's win/loss record over the past three years based on month shows this perception is not entirely accurate, but is pretty close:

Month	W	L	W/L %
March/April	37	36	0.507
May	49	36	0.576
June	38	42	0.475
July	50	27	0.649
August	48	36	0.571
Sept/Oct	52	33	0.612

The Phillies have an overall winning percentage of .564 over the past three years. The only two months they're below that figure is March/April when they have a .504 winning percentage and June when it's at .475. In fact, without those two months, the Phillies have won almost 60% of their games (.598 winning percentage).

So, will Roy Halladay help with these two maladies? The answer is split, as he should help in June, but April might continue to be a problem.

Let's start at the beginning of the year. Historically, in April, Halladay is at his worst. Over the course of his career, he's appeared in 55 March/April games, starting 52 of them. He has slightly lower, but roughly comparable, numbers of appearances/starts in the other months as well.

Almost across the board, Halladay has his worst or second-to-worst career marks in April. His career April ERA is 4.13, his worst by month. His RA is 4.55, also his worst. His WHIP is 1.242, tied for second worst. His strikeout rate is 6.4, tied for worst. His opponents' OPS is .717, second worst. And in each of his last two years, Halladay has had his second worst monthly ERA in April.

Of course, none of this is to say that he won't have a stellar month of April this year. After all, in 2007, his April ERA was his best for the year. And this analysis doesn't mean that, even if not his best, this April from Halladay won't be better than someone else that the Phillies ran out there in years past. However, based on his past, don't look for Halladay to be an immediate savior for the team that struggles out of the gate.

On the other hand, Halladay may just help in June. Overall, June is a better month for him. He has a 3.57 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, and .667 OPS against.

But, more importantly, the Phillies' June struggles have come in large part from being awful in interleague play. Obviously, Halladay's dominance over the past decade has come against AL teams. Although he's actually had more success in his career against NL teams (3.02 ERA in interleague play compared to 3.48 ERA against the AL), he still has had huge success against the AL.

This analysis does not change that Halladay is going to be a huge asset for the Phillies this year. However, to the extent there's some big-picture institutional issue going on with the team at the start of the season, don't expect him to radically alter the team's problems early on. But, you can expect him to help a team that's historically struggled against the AL.

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Comments

Interesting spin

On a topic that has gotten alot of general coverage. Thanks.

by MG77 on Mar 5, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions

Unless Hamels stumbles out of the gate again

I think Halladay should help in April, by virtue of giving the Phillies two (very) good pitchers anchoring the rotation instead of just one.

by phatj on Mar 5, 2010 10:32 PM EST reply actions

Every pitcher struggled if I recall. It was more ugly than the thought of ugly. The pinnacle was that 9,000 meter pop-up Loney hit against Moyer. I remember after he hit it, he started disgustedly towards the dugout with that “how the f***k did that just happen” look on his face until lo’ and behold, a favorable bounce off the Russian space station and it plummets back to Earth, a pubic hair’s width from the railing for a 3 run shot. …Myers if I remember correctly pitched the best out of the bunch until he went down with Blanton slowly rolling to a boil and shortly after that in stepped the man with coolest baseball name next to RJ Swindle, JA Happ. That month was painful esp.with HK dying. Thank god the for all the Nationals games and Rauuuul and the rest of the offense going like all Ralphie on Scut Farkas otherwise we’d been up shit’s creek with nothing but our own stink for a friend.

by j reed on Mar 5, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

Well let’s hope that the league change will buffer that a bit.

by j reed on Mar 5, 2010 10:47 PM EST reply actions

At least for April

by j reed on Mar 6, 2010 8:10 AM EST up reply actions

And he’s the GOD OF PITCHING

1/4 part Hermes: cause he throws stuff like really fast
1/4 part Apollo: causes he’s lighting the way back to Olypmus
1/4 part Ares: cause with that blessed sinker proves Vizzini wrong by winning a land war in Asia
1/4 part Zeus: thunderblot/javelin hurler plus interchangable with a Mr. Gene Simmons

by j reed on Mar 6, 2010 9:08 AM EST up reply actions

Historically speaking I doubt we’ll see any real difference in April, but that’s me being a pessimist.

My unabashed optimism for Halladay says we’re perfect in April.

Reality says we might see a bit of an increase in win % against the past but not by much. I expect Hamels to look a bit better than last year (I pray nightly for this). But Halladay isn’t the only factor in relation to win % in April. We still don’t know who will be pulling up the rear of the rotation, this is going to factor in for more greatly than the addition of Halladay.

Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.

by JCB79 on Mar 6, 2010 11:36 AM EST reply actions

I wouldn’t sweat the month-by-month totals too much. For instance, in those April splits, you’d expect a .564 team to play .507 ball in 73 games just by random chance 19% of the time.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Mar 6, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions

That's still pretty low

If I remember seeing the numbers since Cholly became manager, it is the first 10 games of the season where this team has had some real issues. After that, they generally have played pretty well in April.

by MG77 on Mar 6, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Cholly and the first 10 games

In Philly:

2005: 4-6 (1-2 in Opening Series, 4-5 in first 3 series)
2006: 3-7 (0-3 in Opening Series, 3-6 in first 3 series)
2007: 2-8 (0-3 in Opening Series, 2-7 in first 3 series)
2008: 4-6 (1-2 in Opening Series, 4-6 in first 3 series)
2009: 4-6 (1-2 in Opening Series, 4-4 in first 3 series)

17-33 (3-13 in Opening Series, 17-30 in first 3 series)

In Cleveland:

2000: 7-3 (1-2 in Opening Series, 7-2 in first 3 series)
2001: 4-6 (1-1 in Opening Series, 3-5 in first 3 series)
2002: 9-1 (2-1 in Opening Series, 8-1 in first 3 series)

22-10 (4-4 in Opening Series, 18-8 in first 3 series)

It is hard to say if Cholly does do a poor job of preparing his teams given how well his teams in Cleveland generally performed out of the gate. It is pretty fair to stay though that this team has generally done a lousy job of playing well early in the season and their performance bares that out given how well they generally have played from 2005-09.

by MG77 on Mar 6, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

So if it’s not Cholly, is it something else institutional? The weather change from Clearwater to Philly in April? The instructional staff? The stadium in April? I have no idea, but the pattern makes me think something’s going wrong.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 6, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

Honestly I think you could forth several possible reasons and not come up with any definitive. If they get out to yet another slow start this year though, I would tend to think it is more this group of players although there was alot of change from the 2005 starters even by 2007.

by MG77 on Mar 7, 2010 12:06 AM EST up reply actions

Could it just be bad luck? Sometimes, stuff just happens.

by taco pal on Mar 8, 2010 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

Last year the Phillies also caught some teams early on whose only success came early on prior to major fades. I’m mildly intrigued to see how they get out this year. On paper, the away series vs. ATL and SF are the only ones that are concerns in April prior to long May homestands.

All reports seem to be that the Phils are in good shape, prepared well in the offseason, and are anywhere from mildly or majorly ticked about losing the WS. If they have 4+ wins after their opening series vs WSH and perennial nemesis HOU, we could be looking at a very different start and season.

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 6, 2010 12:18 PM EST reply actions