Beat Unmissed: Phillies 14, Nationals 7

by WholeCamels on Apr 14, 2010 10:46 PM EDT

On a day when the Phillies got their worst (only bad?) news of the young season when Jimmy Rollins was placed on the disabled list, the team went out and bad it's biggest offensive outburst of the season, putting 14 runs on the hapless Nationals' pitching staff, and winning the second game of the three game set by a score of 14 to 7.

It certainly wasn't smooth for the first, oh, six innings or so. Kyle Kendrick was, well, bad. Again.

Kendrick failed to escape the second inning, going just 1 2/3 innings, allowing six hits and six earned runs, as the Nats and Phillies swapped multi-run frames in the first two innings. The score was tied at seven until the fifth inning, when new leadoff hitter Shane Victorino put the Phillies up for good with a two run homer. The Phillies proceeded to stack on another five runs, including the an upper deck solo home run from Chase Utley in the sixth inning, for his second bomb of the night. Victorino finished just a double short of the Cycle for the night, after a bases loaded triple in the seventh inning.

Good stuff. Honestly, I'm getting a little anxious to see how this lineup does against some better teams.

Delicious linegraph

via www.fangraphs.com

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Men at Work, nothing to see here

TAKE THE FALL, ACT HURT, GET INDIGNANT

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Apr 15, 2010 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

No K KK

So let’s see if I have this right. No K has pitched 5.2 against the woeful Nats and has a 17.47 ERA. What are we in store for when he faces a real national League team like the Dodgers or Cards?

Blanton can’t get healthy soon enough.

by Steve-O- on Apr 15, 2010 12:38 AM EDT reply actions

KK may indeed be a bad pitcher, but by no means are the Nationals bats woeful. They field, run the bases and pitch poorly but they hit the piss out of the ball.

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Through 7 games the Nats line is .218/.309/.380

by Steve-O- on Apr 15, 2010 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

7 games isn’t much to go on.
Last year the Nats

718 R, 156 HR, 685 RBI, .258 BA, .337 OBP, .406 SLG, .743 OPS, 96 OPS +, 2231 TB

the league average last year

718 R, 115 HR, 683 RBI, .259 BA, .331 OBP, .409 SLG, .739 OPS, 94 OPS +, 2245 TB

So they don’t exactly hit the piss out of the ball. They are average offensively but not woeful.

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Correction for NL League AVG HR in 2009

The league average (NL that is) for HR in 2009 is 155, not 115

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions

isn't the Nat's offense supposed to be better this year though?

by packimop on Apr 15, 2010 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions

that i don’t know, but the games between us are usually slugfests. They did put up 5 runs against the Smets the other day. they have no pitching at all

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions

actually with Pudge playing for them, they might…Willingham, Dunn, Zimmerman, Guzman (faded a bit by the end of last year).

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions

PECOTA has them at .252/.325/.389, 682 RS, slightly down from last year. No Nick Johnson, BA regression from Dunn, I guess.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 5:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I say this with no personal animus towards Kyle Kendrick, but seriously, just how bad does he have to be before the Phillies realize that he is not a major league pitcher?

I didn’t understand before the season what makes him a better option than Drew Carpenter, who had a very good 2009 in AAA, and I don’t understand it now.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 5:27 AM EDT reply actions

a little ML experience?

Why were we so excited he might be Moyer in Spring Training?

by Clyde Simmons on Apr 15, 2010 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions

While you have a point here, let’s remember that the only reason Kendrick is pitching is because Blanton is on the shelf. It’s not like the organization wanted him in the rotation.

Kendrick vs. Carpenter is, I think, a toss-up. Kendrick has some major flaws as a pitcher, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s looked the last two games. Nobody is that bad.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe Cowley just excused himself from the conversation to go look at some nicely framed memorabilia on the wall over there.

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 15, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh man, Joe Cowley. This is one of the first games I ever watched:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI198704280.shtml

Floyd Youmans homered off of him! I had forgotten all about that.

The thing is, Cowley was actually a decent-enough pitcher in the AL before coming here. We acquired him right at the end of spring training in 1987. I wonder if the Steve Blass had already started to manifest itself during the spring.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ve never seen anyone melt down like Cowley before. It was hard to watch.

by Cormican on Apr 15, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Sure, and me going on a crusade for Carpenter over Kendrick as 6th starter is probably not a worthwhile use of anyone’s time, but for some reason it just drives me nuts. I know the Phillies (publicly, anyway) like to embrace a resolutely non-SABR philosophy, but surely someone, somewhere in the organization pointed out that Carpenter struck out 7 batters per 9 last year, while Kendrick struck out 4 per 9.

There’s a reasonable argument to be made that Carpenter can be a 5th starter. I don’t see that argument for Kendrick.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Kendrick’s FIP in AAA last year was better than Carpenter’s.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Basically, Kendrick had a much lower K rate, but also had a slightly better BB rate and a much better HR rate. There’s no HR/FB for minor league stats on Fangraphs, so it’s possible that Kendrick’s xFIP was worse, but even if that was the case, the difference probably wouldn’t have been that big.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

But isn’t K rate more predictive for prospects (or for anyone)? And I’m also thinking of Kendrick’s growing and mostly lousy track record in the majors.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

It is, but I think K rate has the greatest weight for really young, low-level prospects that you’re trying to project way into the future. When you’re up at AAA, there isn’t as big a difference between the best major league stats to use and the best minor league state to use.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I could swear that I read somewhere that K rate is always the most predictive. The example I’m thinking of is forecasting the rate of decline for established major leaguers who are past their prime.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

is drew carp on the 40?

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Not only is he on the 40, he was on the 25 before we picked up Figueroa.

If Kendrick gets sent down, my guess is that Figueroa will get the first shot at the 5.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

well…at least he can hit.

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Figueroa has a lifetime 4.88 xFIP. As a #6 starter, he’s fine. He’s certainly better than a lot of guys out there who are making millions more.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Forget Carpenter, there’s also Bastardo, who is capable of the occasional spot start and Nelson Figueroa who is capable of spot starts. They’re already with the team and wouldn’t involve sending people down and messing around with waivers, etc.

by Cormican on Apr 15, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

bastardo scares me. He’s lights out at times and Kendrickesque at others, basically…exactly what you’d expect from an average #6 starter who’s not got much experience.

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Better than someone who’s Kendrickesque all the time, like Kyle Kendrick.

That said, I wouldn’t use Bastardo to start just because I’d like him to get used to relieving. He hasn’t been doing it for very long.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, Carpenter gave up 5 in 3.1 in his first AAA start the other day. It’s just one game, but the timing isn’t really the best for bringing him back to the majors.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I know, I’m not agitating for calling him up now, I’m grumbling that he didn’t open the season with the big club instead of Kendrick, whom I’ve personally given up on.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

he was never really in contention for the job. It started as a competition between Kendrick and Moyer and both pitched very well. Had both stunk it up, he might’ve got his name in the mix.

Kind of the equivalent of the BCS poll. If you start #3 and #1 and #2 never falter, it doesn’t matter how well you do.

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Bastardo is the only lefty in the bullpen (and he’s been pretty good in that role), plus he’s not stretched out right now.

Maybe more to the point, the yo-yo’ing of guys between the rotation and bullpen, and the majors and minors, often doesn’t end well. I’m increasingly confident that Li’l Bastard is going to be a pretty damn good big-league reliever, a legit setup guy in a year or two who could close without too much trouble; if the Phils feel the same way, they shouldn’t mess with him.

by dajafi on Apr 15, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Not that I disagree with keeping Bastardo in the pen, but what does he have to “stretch out” that would take so long ….scar tissue? I don’t understand this term. The shoulder has the greatest range of motion of any joint. and therefore baring anatomical defects, arthritis or rotator cuff damage takes little time for an athlete achieve a great amount of flexibility. If he’s pitching now, then he has the flexibility to pitch whether he’s relieving or starting. It might take some time to develop the endurance to start esp. as a reliever he’s more like a sprinter whereas a starter is more like running an middlle distance race (600m -1000m).

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

thats usually what stretching out refers to with regards to pitchers – the process of extending their pitches per appearance until it approaches what they might be expected to do in a game, as opposed to physically stretching.

by Steve J on Apr 15, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

thanks for clarifying. For the most part I baseball is ass backwards training wise so I don’t give them the benefit of the doubt.

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Kendrick gets at least 2 more starts. That’s my prediction. He was really really good in Spring Training, he was really really good when called up 2 yrs ago, and he was respectable at the end of last year, not an ace, but serviceable.

These may just be bad outings, he may be rusty. I’m not saying either of those is the most likely scenarios, but they’re entirely plausible. Also…lets not forget, the Phils are 2-0 in those starts. Maybe putting him on the mounds lights up the bats?? :)

I was looking at the fangraph and find it a little strange that the nats prob of winning after being up 3-0 in the top of the first was only 75%, and a 6-4 lead in the top of the second was only good for ~ a 70% chance at winning. Does fangraphs take into account who’s coming up, who’s pitching, that kind of stuff, or is it just along the lines of
“the visiting team in the national league wins 75% of the time when they jump out to a 3 run lead after half an inning in which they send 7 man to the plate”

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 10:34 AM EDT reply actions

The reason I’m not optimistic about KK is that the two positive data points we have are spring training, which is meaningless, and 2007, which was clearly a fluke driven by a high strand rate.

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Kendrick has a lifetime 4.84 xFIP over 300+ major league innings. I don’t know if I’d call that a “positive data point,” but it isn’t wholly negative either.

Obviously, if he keeps pitching poorly, we’ll send him down, but in my view none of the reasonable alternatives are clearly better bets to do well. It’s just a grab bag.

But Blanton will hopefully be back soon, so this should all be moot soon.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

On the last point, we are in enthusiastic agreement :)

by SethC on Apr 15, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Thought this might help

I read somewhere that BABIP requires 1000 batters faced before it statisitically viable. It stands to reason at least at a cursory glance that if one sets a parameter for pitcher’s luck it would also for a pitcher’s skill

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies will have the option to skip Kendrick’s next turn in the rotation, and by the time his next turn rolls around, Blanton could likely be back.

So 2 more starts seems a bit optimistic to me…unless you mean 2 more starts over the course of the whole season.

by FuquaManuel on Apr 15, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

David Murphy reported this morning that Charlie’s going to flip Moyer and Halladay vs. the Marlins. Not sure if that will impact Kendrick or not.

Off the top of my head, I kind of wish he hadn’t done that. As I see it, a Moyer-Halladay-Hamels sequence is almost perfectly designed to mess with the heads of an opponent’s lineup.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

how about Halladay-Halladay-Halladay?

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s a great point in theory, but if Moyer’s Marlins mojo has finally dissipated (as I fear it has), probably best just to get the Doc as many starts as possible and announce our presence in a tough season series with maximum authority.

by dajafi on Apr 15, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Question

They always do the Marlins Moyer Shuffle…so it begs the question as they are willing to reshuffle the deck for this match-up, why not match Moyer with umps. more favorable to his strike zone if they know what umps. will be calling balls and strikes in advance.

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m just thinking of what I would expect to be enough data points to base a decision on. 2 is not enough, and 4 is on the low end of reasonable. Surely you consider past experience, but since August of last year, he’d pitched pretty well in all situations, so you kind of hope he’d figured it out. 4 starts is enough time to be sure that the last 8 months of pitching was a fluke.

I also agree, Blanton’s return curbs the experiment, but I wasn’t considering that (which is erroneous).

by Bilzo on Apr 15, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

If Blanton makes it back in that time and doesn’t re-injury himself I’d be bowled over. The abdominal/oblique strain is notoriously the most difficult to heal and re-injury is often common.

by j reed on Apr 15, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

i think...

the phillies lost his last start vs. the nationals last week? I could be wrong, but I thought that was where their one loss came from. That would make them 1-1 with kk on the hill.

by PhilsForever on Apr 15, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions