Some Phillies Links for You, May 17, 2010: Jimmy Back?, Brewers Swept, Minor Accomplishments

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 8:32 AM EDT

Phillies Notes: Rollins just an exam away from return
please be healthy, please be healthy, please be healthy...

Philadelphia Phillies put closer Brad Lidge on 15-day disabled list - ESPN
About effing time. Of course, now he'll be abused, thrown out there five times a week, because he's their only good reliever right now.

Even Halladay finds a new pitch to use
Roy Halladay learned something from Kyle Kendrick? Shut up.

Burrell designated for assignment; ex-Phil was hitting .202 for Rays | Philadelphia Daily News | 05/17/2010
It's been discussed elsewhere at great length, but I just want to add that, if this is the end of the road for Pat Burrell, it's been a great run, and thank you.

New York Mets in search of pitching depth, but don't expect Pedro Martinez to get a call
If the Mets continue playing like they've been playing, they have no use for Pedro Martinez.

Rays use 'ground game' to beat Mariners, Lee

"Cliff Lee is one of the top two or three pitchers in all of baseball, as far as I'm concerned," Maddon said. "I'm watching this guy and I'm just imagining the Phillies with him and (Roy) Halladay at the same time. That would be ridiculous."

WE KNOW.

Washington Nationals: 2013 Wild Card Winners? Drew Storen Set To Make MLB Debut. - Federal Baseball
The Nationals are looking more and more legit.

Phillies still have something in the cupboard after trading all those prospects | Philadelphia Daily News | 05/17/2010
Jarred Cosart probably deserves a little more than a cursory mention at the end of the article.

An older Domonic Brown is becoming a wiser player in Phillies system
In the event Jayson Werth leaves, the disappointment ought to be tempered somewhat by the fact that he'll be replaced by such an exciting young player.

Wrapping Up the Near No-No | BlueClaws Blog
Left-hander Nick Hernandez continued his run of outstanding pitching for Lakewood, losing his no-hitting with two outs in the eighth inning during the BlueClaws 9-1 victory over Greensboro.

Braves Win Behind Hudson, Prado, and Hinske - Talking Chop
The Braves top the Diamondbacks by a score of 13-1.

Marlins 10, Mets 8: Niese Injured, Mets Swept - Amazin' Avenue
Marlins manhandle Mets

Rockies 2, Nationals 1: Rockies Take Series Behind 2007-Edition Jeff Francis - Purple Row
The Rockies won their fourth in their last five games, behind Jeff Francis, who has been out of the big leagues since 2008.

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Damn that Cliff Lee trade

I’m not getting over it.

by David S. Cohen on May 17, 2010 9:09 AM EDT reply actions

A friend (Phils fan) and I

were talking about how good the Phillies would be with those two just the other day.

You’d think that the Mariners would be a lot better with the Hernandez-Lee combo going. They just need to build on that.

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 9:44 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

The Mariners may have outsmarted themselves. Their starters are pretty damn good, their Defense is stellar, but there is no one in that batting order who scares anyone. They have some great small ball hitters and OBP guys (Ichiro, Figgens), the least they could have done was signed a Matsui, or someone with some pop to be a DH. I love Griffey and he’s a big part of their history, but you don’t see the Yankees sending Tino Martinez or the Red Sox sending out Garciaparra to DH because they used to be important players.

Working in the M’s favor is the fact that the AL West is pretty weak, so they could still sneak in to the postseason.

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know if they’ll end up winning the division, but I do think they’ll play better than they’ve shown so far. A lot of their guys are underachieving in a way that can’t continue indefinitely. Chone Figgins won’t end the year with a sub-.600 OPS. And some of their BABIPs are just ridiculously low: Figgins .240, Jose Lopez .240, Griffey .229, Josh Wilson .222, Casey Kotchman .192 (!). Ichiro’s BABIP is really high, but it always is.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

tp, given your last sentence, I’m still struggling with making sense of what BABIP really tells us- I understand Ichiro’s a force of nature, but I also know that he is exceptionally gifted at taking what a defense gives, deliberately aiming for empty spots on the field, etc. In like respect we have our pal Cole Hamels, whose patterns over the past 1.5 seasons are pretty comically ridiculous: all-star talent getting to two strikes, then, well, duck. We tend to bandy BABIP around as a measure of mostly luck, but it seems to me to fall somewhere on the skill-luck continuum.

I get (I hope, given I have friggin Lopez and Guitterez on my fantasy team) that they’ll revert to a better mean, but I also can’t help but wonder if a lack of a bopper helps up & down a lineup.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

From what I understand, which isn’t much, batters basically have more control over it than pitchers do. Mainly because of speed. But I’m sure there’s at least some skill involved for pitchers too, if comparatively less.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

WL, if you ever want to know about BABIP just email me. I’ve done more research into the topic than you could possibly imagine.

BABIP is not all luck. It’s just that it’s way more luck than anything else. If you take a pitcher, his BABIP over an entire season of 150+ innings is really only about 12% under his control. It’s about 13% under his defense’s control, and 75% luck. For hitters, it’s closer to 36% under his control, and 64% luck. That’s for guys with 300+ PA.

Other stats show way less luck. Your home run rate by the end of the year is like 75% your skill level or so, I think. It’s something way over 50%. Same with BB and K totals. So BABIP can be a clue that a hitter was unlucky but you need to break it down. For hitters, the guys with best BABIPs in terms of skill level are guys like Jeter and Ichiro, who are capable of .350 BABIPs. The guys who are worst at BABIP obviously are like me who would have a .000 BABIP but any major leaguer who is actually capable of making regular contact and hitting the ball to the outfield so that the defenders don’t all play in and stuff should be able to maintain a BABIP of .260. But the vast majority of people will fall between .275 and .325 in terms of skill. The “BABIP Superstar” skills are speed, power, spraying the ball around, avoiding popups especially, and hitting a lot of ground balls. Hitting line drives is a hitter skill but you need a couple years to really trust that the line drive rate is really staying high.

For pitchers, the guys who keep BABIPs low are flyball pitchers, power pitchers, and control pitchers. The best BABIP guys in the modern era would give up BABIPs of .285 or so with average defense, and the worst BABIP guys who keep their jobs would give up BABIPs of .315 or so with average defense. Almost everybody should be between .293 and .307 with average defense (and obviously move that around from .300 based on how good your defense is).

That help? I’ll try to recheck this thread soon, but if I don’t answer, shoot me an email to remind me. The BABIP luck/skill make-up is really something that makes baseball so much more understandable if you get it right.

by Matt Swartz on May 17, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

So if the vast majority of hitters fall between .275 and .325, why would most pitchers fall between .293 and .307? (Obviously, I get that that range is within the hitters range, but why is it not the same range for both?)

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Because hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers. I think this is because batters control their line drive rate more than pitchers do.

by phatj on May 18, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps I'm being too logical

I was looking at it as if 2 fighters fought each other 20 times and one was 12-10, it would stand to reason that the other was 10-12. I suppose the number of scrub pitchers and above avg. aces makes up for the difference.

by Cormican on May 18, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Two reasons. The defense is not the pitcher— they control the other half of BABIP. Also, hitters control how hard they swing and how fast they run, so they end up taking a lot of control over whether the ball in play is an out or a hit. Overall, it’s like 99% luck on any given batted ball, but for the parts that are controlled, it’s about 56% hitter, 22% defense, 22% pitcher.

by Matt Swartz on May 18, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Right.

Its seemed like an offensive battle for them.

I don’t know about you guys, but I’d like to see the Mariners instead of the Angels come October.

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 11:16 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’ve followed the Mariners more closely than most non-Phillies teams this year, and offense is obviously the problem. The production won’t be great no matter what, but Wakamatsu compounds the problem by continuing to give at bats to Griffey and Sweeney. I know Bradley’s not with the team right now (for counseling or something or other), but he’s expected back in a few days, and when he is, they should run out the following lineup…

RF Ichiro
2B Chone Figgins
DH Milton Bradley
CF Franklin Gutierrez
1B Casey Kotchman
2B Jose Lopez
LF Michael Saunders
C Rob Johnson
SS Jack Wilson

No, it’s not a stellar lineup by any stretch, but given the top of the rotation and the defense, it would at least give them a chance to compete. And as TP noted, many of those guys are due for a bounceback in the BABIP department.

by PhillyFriar on May 17, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to get back on a topic that's been beaten to death

but I found this ZWR post to be incredibly awesome/hysterical.

And here’s the item in question.

by Aphilfan on May 17, 2010 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

those shirts are great.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I second that emotion.

by phillyinportland on May 18, 2010 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Nats

What’s a stud pitcher without someone to throw to?

Speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss his evaluations, the scout added: "I honestly don’t think we’ve seen anything like him in my 30 years doing this. He’s that good."

Better bring up Strasburg asap so they can sell enough seats and merch to sign this guy. Boras client.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

a Dud pitcher?

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 10:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Well, he’s not a Yankee, so he must be garbage then.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Joke.

In reference too “what’s a stud-pitcher without someone to throw to”.

I obviously don’t think what the Nats have is a dud…

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 11:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

ohhhh

I get it now.

Sorry I’m touchy!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Im used to it.

Go to school in South Jersey.

Right now everyones in Flyer mode.

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 11:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And I live in North Jersey

Wanna trade?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Hell no!

I like South Jersey. I have a good time talking sports because all my friends here are Philly fans.

North Jersey…irks me.

Only way I’d leave here is to move back to New York.

New Yorker looking for sports talk and debate!

by Gelatin on May 17, 2010 1:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

damn

I was hoping I’d get a good deal.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Given the history of High School Catching prospects not named Mauer, I’m skeptical. I hope he doesn’t pan out, I have enough teams to hate in the NL East, I enjoyed ignoring the Nats.

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

He’s also been reported to have a really bad personality, for what it’s worth.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

I have a friend who housed him for a week during the USA Baseball U18 practices last year. He never complained about Bryce, but it might be interesting to ask him at this point.

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s pretty neat. How did he get that gig?

This is the article I was thinking of:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10611

4. The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It’s impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn’t blown away by Harper’s ability on the field, but it’s equally difficult to find one who doesn’t genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he’s ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. “He’s just a bad, bad guy,” said one front-office official. “He’s basically the anti-Joe Mauer.” How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can’t afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ve really missed Gary Carter.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

But everyone loved Carter! He was “The Kid!” Or so the national media told me…

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, no doubt he’s a HOFer, and I’m sure his mom may have loved him and vice-versa. It hardly started well with me and got worse after his dinger in 1981 vs Dick Ruthven. (btw it is kind of interesting that the Phils were only drawing 38-43K in that split-season playoff series given that, if there is a game tonight, there’ll be 42K+ for a game vs the Pirates. In May.

A few too many gratuitous curtain calls for my stomach in the mid-80s.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I didn’t know him until he was a Met, but I always despised him the most out of everyone on that team, by far.

I also disliked Strawberry and McReynolds but not as much, while I actually kind of liked Gooden, Hernandez, and Mookie Wilson.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I actually thought about applying for the gig, but it involves a week of vacation and you need to have room for at least 2 or 3 kids. He does it every year (he housed Marlins prospect Kyle Skipworth a few years back and still raves about how great a kid he was), I think he got it because he works with the Durham Bulls frequently on things.

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Also, regardless of what he has to say about Bryce I probably can’t repeat it, but for my own curiosity I might ask.

by Cormican on May 17, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

understandable

I don’t really want this to become a baseball gossip blog; “Tony Perez Hilton” if you will

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

One of the big (no pun intended) issues with Harper is where he’ll stick positionally. He’s not even 18 years old but already 6’4" 215-ish pounds. Mauer’s big, too, but Harper still might grow more. We’re talking Richie Sexton/Adam Dunn sized.

Still, with his bat, he’d probably stick at any position, even if he doesnt’ remain a catcher.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 17, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Tangential – but – I’d make it a priority to have bilingual catchers.

by Wet Luzinski on May 17, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

The really interesting question is what stance Boras ultimately takes regarding Harper’s signability. I believe he’s claiming that Harper should what Strasburg got, and he has some leverage in demanding that: Harper can just go back to juco for another year, reeenter the draft at 18, and ask someone to meet his price then. Ultimately I think they’ll get a deal done, but it’ll be a down-to-the-wire kind of thing like Strasburg’s was.

by PhillyFriar on May 17, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

It’ll definitely be down to the wire.

I remember during the Bush administration, Karl Rove had a philosophy that if you won an election or a congressional vote by a wide margin, that just proved that you didn’t push the envelope far enough ideologically. The goal, he believed, should always be to go as far to the right as possible while still winning, which meant that you should always try to win by as slim a margin as possible. This is just by way of illustration, not to get into politics. The point is that I think Boras has a similar philosophy. If you haven’t gone down to the wire and burned some bridges, you haven’t extracted as much as you can and you haven’t done your job. He only settles early when his client specifically instructs him to. Otherwise, he’ll always advise them to take it down to the last minute, even if they’re not “once in a lifetime” guys.

by taco pal on May 17, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions