Roy Halladay's Pitch Counts: Backing Us Off a Ledge
by David S. Cohen on May 19, 2010 2:55 PM EDT
Email
PrintIf you're like me, you're a whee bit concerned about the number of pitches Roy Halladay has been throwing lately. I was sitting in the cold mist last night watching the game from the right field stands, and I was growing increasingly incensed with each batter he faced in the eighth and ninth innings last night. When his pitch count topped 130, I was stunned.
Was a May game against the Pirates really worth 132 pitches? Charlie Manuel sure thought so, but I was not convinced at all. After all, Halladay is a pitching deity, but his arm is still human, right?
Well, after spending some time this morning looking at his game logs over his career, maybe not. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but we can get some comfort from the fact that Halladay has been worked this hard in the past and come out relatively unscathed.
So far this year, Halladay has pitched in 9 games. In all but the first game, he's thrown over 100 pitches. Since that first game, his pitch counts have been 111, 100, 113, 104, 118, 119, 121, 132. Over those 8 games, he's thrown 918 pitches, for an average of 114.75 pitches per game. Just over the last 4 games, he's thrown a whopping 490 with an amazing 122.5 pitches per game.
What should make those of us concerned about pitch counts back away from the ledge though is that Halladay has done this before in his career and continued to pitch quite well. Let's start with the 8 game stretch of 918 pitches. Halladay has topped 900 pitches over 8 consecutive games 11 times in his career, and in 3 of those stretches, he's thrown more than 918 pitches - 921, 924, and 934.
The 11 figure overstates how frequently he's had this high a workload though, as the 11 instances really occurred over two stretches. One stretch occurred in the second half of 2007, when Halladay had 15 starts from July 12 to the end of the season and averaged just a tick under 114 pitches per start. He threw 115 pitches in his last start of the season, giving him 934 for his last 8 starts, the highest amount of that stretch and his highest 8-game total in his career.
It's hard to compare before and after, as this occurred at the end of the season. In terms of carrying over into the next year, the effort he expended at the end of 2007 did not affect him in 2008, as he was stellar in 2008, posting a 2.78 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP for the year. And, if you look at his other high water 8-game stretch in 2007, he was somewhat comparable immediately after it as before it. In the 8 games prior to and including September 4, 2007, Halladay threw 924 pitches and had a 2.93 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. In his last 4 games of the season, the only games that year following September 4, he had a 2.37 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. The numbers show he was more hittable in those last four games. And, his lower ERA is deceptive, as he gave up 5 unearned runs, compared to only 8 earned runs. But, even though he pitched worse following September 4, he was still a very effective pitcher.
The second stretch of extreme usage over 8 game periods came toward the end of 2008. That year, in the 8 starts leading up to and including August 9, Halladay threw 911 pitches. In fact, in the 10 starts prior to and including August 16, Halladay averaged just over 114 pitches per game. This extreme workload seems to have taken a bit of a toll on Halladay. In the 8 starts up to and including August 9, 2008, he had a 1.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In the 8 starts following August 9, he had a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
In both of these stretches, it's clear that Halladay suffered a bit following the intense workload. However, he hardly imploded, as he still pitched like a top of the rotation starter, if not his normal one-of-the-best-in-baseball self. Thus, if history tells us anything, it's that we shouldn't be too worried about Halladay's pitch counts over his last 8 starts.
The same goes with his recent 4 game pitch count. Over his past 4 games, he's thrown 490 pitches. That total is the highest pitch count for 4 consecutive games in Halladay's career. Only two other times has he thrown 480 or more pitches over the course of 4 games, both times corresponding with the stretches discussed above. From August 24 to September 10, 2007, he threw 484 pitches, and from July 24 to August 9, 2008, he threw 480 pitches. As discussed above, he was worse after those 4 games, but he was still quite good by any measure.
Of course, Halladay's huge workload in 2010 might be different than his comparably heavy workloads in 2007 and 2008. For one, his body is older. Also, the workload this year has come at the beginning of the season rather than toward the end when he's stretched out and has an end in sight. Moreover, his workload in 2010 comes with that many more pitches on his arm's odometer, including the heavy stretches of 2007 and 2008. For these reasons, Charlie Manuel shouldn't risk Halladay's arm too much more.
But, Manuel can point to the past to justify Halladay's current use, as Halladay has done this before and lived up to his staff-ace billing afterwards. And there's no need for us fans to hover near the ledge over Halladay's pitch counts . . . yet.
56 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I was listening on the Radio. The announcers must have had binoculars because they said that as soon as Charlie got out to the mound Roy’s first words were “I’m O.K.”.
I think Charlie is trusting that Roy knows how to take care of his arm considering he should care just, if not more than Charlie since he has 20 million guaranteed upon him staying healthy.
Who knows, maybe the fact that he his huge means he doesn’t quite have the strain to throw a 90mph fastball that someone shorter does.
I couldn’t care less what Roy said at 120-plus pitches. It’s like asking a tree how the forest is going to look in 3 years.
by David S. Cohen on May 19, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Anytime a manager asks a pitcher if he’s got anything left in the tank, the subtext is “Are you such a pansy that you want to be taken out?” Even if the manager doesn’t mean it that way, the pitcher will almost certainly interpret it that way.
Well according to the announcers it was before Charlie even said anything. This has happened before, too. I remember Charlie getting half way and Roy telling him to go back in the dug out. When a pitcher gives you that much confidence, what would your honest response be?
While it is a mangers job to manage his star’s pitch count, at some point I think you have to understand that the player knows the way he feels and what he is capable of.
by Clyde Simmons on May 19, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely disagree
Players can’t be trusted to fully understand what all the evidence indicates. Managers should have that information and should act based on it.
And it doesn’t matter when Halladay said something. It’s not like there was uncertainty about why Manuel was coming out there.
by David S. Cohen on May 19, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Well if the Manager disagreed do you think he would listen to the pitcher?
You have a pitcher going who consistently goes over 100 pitches year in and year out with no issues still pitching well and telling you without a doubt he still has alot left in the tank.
When the player knows how to take care of his arm and how is arm feels PLUS the manger agrees I really see no issue here.
P.S. Trees can’t talk :P
by Clyde Simmons on May 19, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that Halladay has had heavy workloads year in and year out in the past is as much a reason to be more cautious with his pitch count in the present as it is to be less.
Why pitchers get injured is so much of an unknown that I don’t think you can even being to quantitatively make assessments like that.
by Clyde Simmons on May 19, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think thats a qualitative judgement from TP, not a quantitative one, but regardless…
I agree that most of the causes of pitcher injury are unknown – most importantly, they are far more unknown than those who have the most control over them (coaches and athletes) probably believe. But I think a reasonable assumption you can make is that pitcher injury is likely, in part, caused by overuse. That is, why do pitchers get injured so much? Partly due to pitching so much. If that’s the case, then doesn’t it make sense to be slightly cautious with your brand new shiny toy, regardless of whether you know for a fact how he might break?
Was pretty much typing out the same thing. It’s about being smart, controlling the factors that you can control, and doing whatever you can to lower the odds of your pitcher(s) getting hurt.
I actually had qualitative first, but replaced it because I was thinking along the lines of statistics, but in the way I used it and he used it, you are right.
Regardless I would be interested to see the statistic that proves guys who pitch more innings get injured more often. I have heard of guys increasing the amount they pitch from year to year having problems, but guys that have done it year in and year out is different.
CC Sabathia pitched more in ’08 then he should have and the last two seasons since he has been just as good, if not better: AND not been injured.
I am arguing this point independently of the situation. If Charlie has a chance to pitch hit in a close game for a pitcher with 110 pitches on the night, then that is a decision I can’t agree with for other reasons.
by Clyde Simmons on May 19, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. I think the main thing is that players have too many biases – they might have the most information about how they feel, but they’re also conflicted by the fact that they have to worry about how they’re perceived by others, their responsibility to their team, their general competitive instinct, etc. So their word can’t be trusted (at least not fully).
It’s the manager’s job to “tie the pitcher to the mast of the ship,” so to speak.
You have unknowingly restated a paradox of quantum physics:
“One can even set up quite ridiculous cases. A pitcher is penned up in a steel chamber on a mound, along with the following device (which must be secured against direct interference by the pitcher): a JUGS gun and a pitch counter. In the JUGS gun, there is a sensor that will detect minute variations in pitch velocity and movement, so small that perhaps in the course of a game, one of the pitches shows reductions in movement or velocity, but also, with equal probability, perhaps none; if it happens, the JUGS gun will trigger a release of a hammer that shatters a small flask of hydrocyanic acid. If one has left this entire system to itself for an hour, one would say that the pitcher still lives if meanwhile no pitch has declined in quality. The psi-function of the entire system would express this by having in it the living and dead pitcher (pardon the expression) mixed or smeared out in equal parts.
It is typical of these cases that an indeterminacy originally restricted to the in-game domain becomes transformed into seasonal or career-based indeterminacy, which can then be resolved by direct observation. That prevents us from so naively accepting as valid a “blurred model” for representing reality. In itself, it would not embody anything unclear or contradictory. There is a difference between a shaky or out-of-focus photograph and a snapshot of clouds and fog banks."
It is, in other words, Schrodinger’s Pitcher: Halladay can’t tell us anything useful while on the mound, since his direct observation forces the superposition state into a fixed position. His observation changes the experiment.
Hope that helps.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on May 21, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree with that (hey…we’re back to normal!). Quite often when you see a guy getting shelled, he doesn’t argue with the pitcher, in fact I think sometimes he might be thinking “what took you so damn long to come get me?”
That is a completely different situation. In your example, the pitcher can’t complain about coming out of the game, because he isn’t performing well. It’s clear to everyone that regardless of whether the spirit is willing, the body is weak.
When a pitcher is still performing well but says he’s tired, then it’s possible for others to question if the body is really weak or if it’s the spirit that’s weak. In that case, the pitcher has a strong incentive to cover up any bodily fatigue.
I’ve said this before on the blog, but I’m a believer in the pendulum having swung too far in the other direction with respect to pitch counts. People start to freak out whenever any pitcher goes above 120 pitches, and while it should certainly raise a red flag, there are plenty of other considerations to thinks about. Just off the top of my head…
- the length of the innings
- the stress level of the innings
- the age of the pitcher
- how he repeats his mechanics
- the temperature
…etc. Now, Halladay is obviously way past the young pitcher injury nexus, and he’s in fantastic physical condition. I haven’t noticed his mechanics getting out of whack at any point, and I honestly can’t recall any innings that seemed particularly stressful. Perhaps most importantly, Halladay is consistently among the most efficient starters in the majors in pitches per inning. He’s at 14.1 pitches per inning this year, which is right in line with career norms: 14.2 last year; 14.5 in 2008, and 14.8 in 2007. And while he leads the majors in BP’s “Pitcher Abuse Points” for this year, he’s been in the Top 4 each year since 2007 and has been none the worse for wear.
Now, as David says, this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good idea to run him out there for 132 pitches in a May game against the Pirates. Even if Doc’s likely to hold up alright, it never hurts to err on the side of caution. But the ultimate point is that we shouldn’t start to freak out every time Halladay goes over 110 pitches.
To put the pitches per inning efficiency in perspective, Halladay was third among starters with at least 100 innings pitches last year in that regard. Here’s a sampling of some other pitchers, just for comparison’s sake…
Tim Lincecum: 15.3
Chris Carpenter: 13.9
Javier Vazquez: 15.1
Zack Greinke: 15.2
Cliff Lee: 15.2
Jon Lester: 16.7
Ubaldo Jimenez: 16.4
Cole Hamels: 16.1
CC Sabathia: 15.4
Clayton Kershaw: 17.7
Justin Verlander: 16.4
I wasn’t really fully aware until this season when I had a fantasy team all my own, but most top-end starters throw 100-120 pitches. Most of them don’t go as deep as Halladay, so I think there’s a bit of a psychological trick that our minds are playing on us.
by Wet Luzinski on May 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
ehh
My biggest issue with the whole affair last night is that last night’s game was arguably the least important game of the season. The Pirates are not a threat in the division, and almost certainly will not threaten for a playoff spot.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
and the other quibble is that he had a spot to lift him late in the game for a pinch hitter to try to tie the game, and instead didn’t, and Halladay failed there. It was the ideal spot for a manager who was a hitter to say, siddown yer done Roy, we’z gon’ hit you offa da dadgum hook.
Or words to that effect
by Wet Luzinski on May 19, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t disagree with this, as far as it goes. But it’s matter of cost-benefit.
The potential benefit, I think, was extremely small. Yes, one game can theoretically make or break a season, but it’s still only one game vs. a team that isn’t in our division and won’t be in the playoff race. Plus, I don’t think a Halladay who had already thrown 120 pitches was that much more likely to be effective than our relievers would have been on a night after they all got a day of rest.
The potential cost can be measured by the badness of the worst-case scenario multiplied by the % chance of that worst-case scenario happening. Your point is that the % is small, and I agree. But the badness of the worst-case scenario is so monumental that the cost of putting Halladay out there is actually significant.
I agree with both you and WC on the point that, “It’s a May game against the Pirates, so best just to err on the side of caution.” I was just trying to make the more general point that if this happens from time to time, we need to consider the totality of the circumstances before rushing to judgment.
Overall, Halladay is an “exception” to the pitch count/fatigue thing… until he isn’t.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Right, and there’s absolutely no need to push the envelope here. I think we’re pretty much in fundamental agreement.
Another point I failed to mention but is worth noting: Halladay throws such a high percentage of fastballs (two seamers, cutters, etc.) and such a low percentage of breaking balls (he’s thrown fewer curves now than at any point in his career), that I’m led to believe that he’s less susceptible to arm or shoulder injuries than, say, somebody like A.J. Burnett or Francisco Liriano (both of whom throw a much higher number of curve balls for the former and sliders for the latter).
After all, Halladay is a pitching diety, but his arm is still human, right?
That’d be ‘deity’, otherwise, you’re insinuating that he’s Jenny Craig. (I normally don’t correct spelling, but I had to chuckle at that one).
robin roberts averaged over 19 CGs per year with the Phils, over a 14 year career here. I realize that a lot of the pitchers that started and finished just about every single one of their games did not have long, impressive careers, but that also doesn’t mean that people can’t do it. If nothing else, the situations in which players today are working in are better than that of yester-year. We have better trainers, equipment, and mentality toward staying in shape, yet everyone is overly concerned with pitch count. As it has been mentioned recently, when AJ Happ pitched his shutout in Toronto, it was the first CG he had pitched as a professional, in any level. Were the pitchers of all but the last 25 years so much tougher than the pitchers today, or are we just overly concerned with coddling them because now there is more money at stake?
"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone
by layout ultimate on May 19, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
That’s a bad argument. If you test everyone to see if they’re superhuman, you’ll find the ones who are superhuman and burn through all the rest. Lots of pitchers’ careers were destroyed in the “good ol’ days” – you just don’t remember who they were because of the very fact that they never amounted to anything.
Roberts is actually a pretty bad example. His prime ended when he was 29. It’s possible that he would have had an even greater career if he hadn’t been abused so much when he was younger.
Nolan Ryan says “Hi” (just like he’s going to every time someone starts complaining about pitch counts.
Roberts is actually a pretty bad example. His prime ended when he was 29. It’s possible that he would have had an even greater career if he hadn’t been abused so much when he was younger.
So why didn’t Nolan just fall to pieces? If a maserati can handle going 165 you don’t leave it parked. I honestly think Halladay is one of those guys built to last.
Lots of pitchers’ careers were destroyed in the "good ol’ days" – you just don’t remember who they were because of the very fact that they never amounted to anything
And how do you know they were going to be good pitchers? Are there not still flashes of brilliance today by guys that end up sucking? You can’t assume every guy that had two good years and developed rag arm as a result of over use was going to be Greg Maddux.
You’re constructing straw men.
Nobody is arguing that every pitcher who is abused by conventional measurements will burn out, and certainly nobody is arguing that every pitcher who flamed out after a short career would have become Greg Maddux but for the injury.
ok..maybe I went a bit far on that, but my point is, a lot of good pitchers have high pitch counts because they’re good pitchers. It’s not like they’re throwing him out there for 200 pitches. Really good pitchers throw lots of innings.
Halladay is a really good pitcher. He’s going to throw a lot of pitches because even late in the game, he’s still got good command.
Essentially...Here's what's going to happen
Scenario 1:
Halladay throws 300+ IP this year and has no problems whatsoever. The alarmists will say he could’ve done better if he was rested, and that he’s going to get hurt next year as a result of the over use, and the cycle repeats.
Scenario 2:
Halladay throws 150 IP this year and gets hurt and the alarmists will scream “I told you so”.
There’s really no point in further debate on this, as we’re not going to change his usage, and no matter what happens, if you’re a pitchcountaphobe, you’re not going alter your stance. One things for sure…we all hope he stays of the DL.
(oh…How’d CC Sabathia do after pitching on 3 days rest repeatedly down the stretch for Milwaukee in the 2008 NLDS?)
If I recall, he ran out of gas and into the Phillies bats on the way to that big free agent contract he signed with the Yick-ees. But, that was a long time ago, and I had to work through most of the nlds games that year, so I could be wrong.
I think that is my biggest concern with Roy— that and the fact that I think that in some ways he is very similar to Chase— neither of them have particularly great perspective into their ability to continue— on one hand, it allows me
to know precisely when to worry about them— if Halladay were to have handed the ball over and went willingly, I would have wondered if something was wrong (more than tiredness). The trouble is that it cuts both ways— because Roy is going to insist that he is fine and that he can get out of the jam, you almost need to be more careful and insistent. You have to be the bad guy for their own good and the long term good of the team. I look at the number of pitches he has thrown this early, and worry that he is not going to be able to pitch this well for a whole season plus that part of the year that he is normally off.
That being said, I recognize that in the last two pitching cycles he has had an extra day’s rest, and that there is a difference between going all out every fifth day (which he is doing), and trying to do the same thing every fourth (a pace that Sabathia could not maintain for the length of time the Brewers needed him to… And before he even gets any ideas, no, we should not attempt at any point to find out if halladay can go on three days rest— a good pitching arm is a horrible thing to waste.
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
by dannijd on May 19, 2010 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If I recall, he ran out of gas and into the Phillies bats on the way to that big free agent contract he signed with the Yick-ees. But, that was a long time ago, and I had to work through most of the nlds games that year, so I could be wrong.
That’s fair. He did have a bad outing in the NLDS, one which was punctuated by a remarkable 10 pitch (or so) walk to the opposing pitcher followed by a grand slam. Maybe he was tired in that outing, but it was only one outing, but his arm didn’t fall of of turn gangrenous was more my point.
Sabathia's durability
Doesn’t seem to have been hurt by overuse in 2008. And last night against the Red Sox I watched an inning or two early on when he was cruising and turned it off. Joba Chamberlain gets the ball for the 8th innng after CC throws 112 pitches and leaves with a 5-1 lead – and the Red Sox win the game. There’s a case for leaving your starter in for another inning if it’s no strain instead of playing it by the book and using your 8th inning guy because your starter is over 100 pitches. I don’t think Charlie Manuel would have made that mistake, and as long as Halladay is the pitcher I’d agree with him.
Just to stir the pot a little more, I think the Yankees could have driven a stake into the Red Sox’ hearts with another win on Tuesday after the way they beat up Papelbon on Monday. Instead they let them off the hook and the Red Sox may cause them more problems later this season.
by phillyinportland on May 20, 2010 3:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I will agree, but only to a point on driving a dagger into the Red Sox. Right now, they are pretty far back in a tight division, but one loss
in May is neither final nor fatal (and yes, I may need to be reminded of that more than once). If you are the Yick-ees, the thing you need to be more concerned with is Mariano Rivera blowing 2 saves in the past three days… And maintaining control of the wild card…
Also… Has anybody had a recent check of
the AL East standings— Toronto has 25 wins and is only 1 game out in the wild card race— imagine where they would be if they had not made that trade over the winter….
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
by dannijd on May 20, 2010 9:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
VW
Or if they had dumped off Vernon Wells’ contract like they’d been trying. Dude is earning his keep these days.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 20, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
A no-Yankees, no-Red Sox postseason would be pretty sweet. If we make it and they don’t, we could easily get the main prime time slot in the DS!
Stop with the mushrooms already.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on May 21, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I was more talking putting Doc back in a rotation that has taken several no-hitters deep into games…. maybe it is just the luck of the schedule, but they may be a lot better team than they were on paper when they decided to make the deal… if they wind up close at the end of the year, they are going to rue that trade.
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
Related FanShots on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
