The Sensational 47-Year-Old Jamie Moyer
by David S. Cohen on May 20, 2010 11:03 AM EDT
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PrintWhen Jamie Moyer signed his 2 year, $13 million contract in December 2008, I thought the team was crazy. Giving a starting pitcher a guaranteed 8-figure two year contract for his age 46 and 47 seasons seemed asinine.
Last year, Moyer's performance gave those of us who were concerned about the contract reason to feel smug. In the first half of the season, his ERA was 5.99 with a WHIP of 1.49. Baseball's unthinking accounting system credited him with winning 8 games in the first half, but only because he got amazing run support. His second half was better, but much of the improved performance came as a relief pitcher, where he had a 1.93 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. When he was signed to his big contract, no one thought it would be to perform as a valuable middle reliever.
Coming into this year, Moyer had to prove his worth, as Kyle Kendrick showed dominant stuff in spring training. The Phillies were saved the tough decision between Moyer and Kendrick thanks to Joe Blanton's injury. Now that Blanton is back in the rotation, the Phillies still haven't had to make a decision between Moyer and Kendrick thanks to J.A. Happ's injury.
Whenever that decision gets made, though, it's hard to see Moyer losing out given his current performance. So far, he has a 4.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 99 ERA+. But, looking a little deeper into these basic numbers shows that Moyer has been even better than that.
Moyer has pitched 52.3 innings so far this season. In those innings, he has given up 25 earned runs. However, 10 of those have come in 2 separate innings. On April 10, he gave up 5 runs to the Astros in the third inning. On April 17, he gave up 5 runs to the Marlins in the first inning. Since then, he hasn't given up a big inning like that.
If you take out those two innings, Moyer has a very different line for the year. In the remaining 50.3 innings, he has a 2.68 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Those numbers are sensational. In fact, they'd put him in competition for the title of staff ace.
Of course, we can't remove just two innings from Moyer's stats. Those innings happened. And any pitcher would like it if you excised their two worst innings from their game logs. However, these two early blips in Moyer's season mask his otherwise sensational start to the year.
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While it’s certainly true that Moyer has been generally good, I’m usually very suspicious of this type of analysis. What’s the average difference between actual ERA and “worst-two-innings-removed ERA” for all pitchers? Has Moyer been better than other pitchers at avoiding big innings (to quantify it, has he had fewer 3-or-more run innings than most)? Can any meaningful conclusions be drawn from 1/3 of a season?
Even taking into account the picture as a whole, Moyer’s been better so far this year than in the past few years. To update this little chart…
2006: 4.72 xFIP — 2.12 K/BB — 81.7 mph FB
2007: 4.72 xFIP — 2.02 K/BB — 81.1 mph FB
2008: 4.53 xFIP — 1.98 K/BB — 81.2 mph FB
2009: 4.74 xFIP — 2.19 K/BB — 81.4 mph FB
2010: 4.31 xFIP — 3.33 K/BB — 81.3 mph FB
The 4.31 xFIP (which is right in line with his 4.30 ERA) is third among the team’s starters — ahead of Blanton’s 4.58 and Kendrick’s 4.77. The ultimate takeaway here being something we already knew: Jamie ages like fine wine.
That is something that I am thinking of looking at soon (starting tonight if I can find the energy, since I will need something to do with no baseball on). I think that while we can not ignore two bad innings, that it is soemthing that we have to be aware of, because it colors a situation— it is sort of like looking at run differential for the Pirates and Brewers, both of whose situations are distorted by 6 games played in Pittsburgh, where the Brewers beat the daylights out of the Pirates, including wins by 17 and 20. I think removing a pitcher’s two worst (and for fairness, two of their best) innings lets us know a little bit more about the average for that pitcher— particularly with the season only at its quarter pole… there is still an argument for pitchers that the sample size is too small to be completely predictive, and could too easilly be distorted with one or two really bad innings.
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
PF and you raise an interesting point.
Historically, we have measured players by their average performances in a season and in a career. Given the tools at our disposal today, I think it more useful to measure players in terms of how many “good”, “average” and “bad” games players have over the course of a season and a career, i.e., how performances are distributed over the course of a season and a career.
For example, with regard to pitchers, we value stats like ERA, FIP, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and K/BB. If we were to develop charts showing the distribution of a pitcher’s games in terms of each of these stats or some combination thereof, we could determine that X% of the time the pitcher is “excellent”, Y% of the time “poor”, Z% “average”, etc. I think that performance distributions are more useful than performance averages.
The same principle applies to position players. One effect of this approach would be not to over-value a player’s performance in single games. For example, when Howard hit the grand slam the other day, he put the finishing touch on a 12-2 win; but Howard’s contribution that day was a significant percentage of only one team win. After all, the ultimate goal is to measure a player’s contribution to team wins. I think that performance distributions are better ways to measure a player’s contribution to team wins than performance averages.
by Derekcarstairs on May 20, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Tack on another two years guys?
ducks
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
Hell, make it 3 and have a 50-year-old promotion in 2013.
by David S. Cohen on May 20, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps that was a goal when he chose his jersey number…
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
by foos05 on May 20, 2010 7:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know if another two, but if he keeps this up all season, I would sign up for another one!
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
If he stays healthy and pitches anywhere near what he’s done so far, yup.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 20, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
contract
Perhaps a good compromise would be 1 with a vesting option if, say, he gets to 175 innings in ’11. I would do that.
I wouldn’t want to commit too much to Moyer, but one thing I’m sure of is that if somehow he can pitch well until he’s 50, I want to see him do that here.
And if he does it, he should be inducted into the Hall, regardless of any other statistical considerations.
If he pitches until 50, he’ll probably have won 300 games.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 20, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ve been wondering why it’s called the “Hall of Fame” if some truly famous players are omitted (Maris, Canseco, Strawberry, Gooden). Changed to “Hall of Great”?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes… And both were good players… But do we want great players in if they are known to have done things that besmirched the game that we love?
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
by dannijd on May 22, 2010 1:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
and Contemporary. Good luck getting any deadballer elected these days, even if they were a star in their own time.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I think that is in part because the players that we love are the players that we remember— and the plays/ games we remember. It is Ruiz running out to Lidge on the mound at the end of the ‘08 World Series, it is the pop up that fell right into Lee’s glove in last year’s World Series. Having seen these plays with my own eyes, they are a part of my love both of the game and of the players who play it. When we start to talk about players from the dead ball era, they are players that the voters do not remember in a tangible way, and whose stats do not line up in a meaningful way with the stats of the liveball era. This makes it hard for the voters to appreciate their play in the way that they do more modern players.
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
by dannijd on May 22, 2010 1:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That works— it shows a desire to continue to have him here, but also allows the Phillies an out if hiks performance declines (something that very well may happen, considering his age…)
Philadelphia: Phinally home to more than just a Hollywood Boxing Champ
- Drunken Bleachers
Re-sign Jayson Werth!!!!
"I never want to look back and wonder 'What if I had tried harder'"
- Chase Utley
Regarding the baby blues, I was a little disapointef they didn’t feature the zippers.
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
by foos05 on May 20, 2010 6:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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