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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

Phillies Prospect Roundup: Ummm, this Brown guy is good

When this feature began last year, there was a trio of prospects who merited mention every single week: Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, and Kyle Drabek (the so-called "Big Three").  2009 was good to those guys -- they each wound up in the Top 30 of Baseball America's offseason prospect rankings -- but by the time 2010 rolled around, only one of them was still with the organization.  Phils fans and prospectniks alike wondered aloud whether Ruben Amaro had made the right decision on which one to hold onto.

Fast forward to May 2010, and while Drabek struggles to find his command in Double-A (5.1 BB/9) and Taylor is saddled with a .247/.314/.462 line, Dom Brown is firing on all cylinders.  It's too early to definitely say that Amaro made the right call, but while Roy Halladay does his damnedest to validate the major league portion of the deal, Brown is trying to do the same for Amaro's decision to make him the chosen one.  Who knows -- maybe Brown will be part of a big inning off Johan Santana before you know it?

Check below the jump for info on Domonic, a pair of young shortstops, a guy making his debut after Tommy John surgery, and more.

Star-divide

Domonic Brown, OF-L, Reading: Unlike last year, I'm not making it a rule that Brown needs to be on each week's prospect roundup... but he needs to have a blah week before I can give him a week off.  Brown slams homers in back-to-back games over the weekend, raising his slash line to an impressive .333/.397/.650 through 67 plate appearances.  After some early strikeout problems, he whiffed only 4 times (with 3 walks) over the past weeks week, so it's pretty much all systems go at this point.

Tyson Gillies, OF-L, Reading: Gillies' plate discipline, or lack thereof, was one of the only real concerns to emerge from the first few weeks of the season.  He's certainly not out of the woods yet, but a 5-for-11 weekend series at New Hampshire with a homer, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts looks like a step in the right direction.  The .224/.272/.342 on the year is an eyesore, as are the plate discipline numbers (5.0% BB, 25.0% K), but that's nothing an extended hot streak can't make us forget.

Anthony Gose, OF-L, Clearwater: Gose sludged through a 6-for-25 week, showing both good signs (3B, 2B, and BB on Sunday) and bad (9 K on the week).  His .163 ISO is a pleasant surprise, but it's fueled by 7 triples on the year, so it's not like Gose has suddenly morphed into a power threat -- and as a non-power hitter, the plate discipline (3.9% BB, 28.6% K) has to get a lot better.  Gose got a better feel for working the count as last season moved on, so here's hoping the same pattern follows this year.

Leandro Castro, OF-R, Lakewood: It's easy to get overlooked when you play in the same outfield as Domingo Santana, Jiwan James, and Anthony Hewitt, but Castro is demanding attention by outperforming all of them in the early going.  A 6-for-21 week with a homer, a walk and a pair of steals has Castro at .305/.346/.484 on the season.  The plate discipline isn't tremendous (6.9% BB, 15.8% K), but it's already an improvement on last year, so the 20-year old Castro has already shown some ability to make adjustments.

Freddy Galvis, SS-S, Reading: More of the same with Galvis -- still getting rave reviews with the glove, while the news on the bat isn't nearly as good.  The hand-eye coordination is clearly there, as the 20-year old Galvis has only struck out in 8.0% of his at bats (while walking in just 5.4% of his plate appearances), but he's not making hard contact, as evidenced by his .034 ISO and .227/.269/.261 line on the year so far. Galvis is still young for Double-A, but he has to show us something -- anything -- with the bat to keep his prospect status.

Jonathan Pettibone, RHP, Lakewood: The 19-year old Pettibone was impressive last Tuesday, notching the win with a 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K performance for the BlueClaws.  A third round selection in 2008, Pettibone has been somewhat under the radar to this point, but there's a lot to like here -- a big (6'5", 200-lb.) righty with solid ground ball tendencies (54.5% on the season) and an ability to retire both right- and left-handed hitters.  He's a cut below the likes of Trevor May and Jarred Cosart as far as young arms go, but Pettibone's a nice prospect in his own right.

Drew Carpenter, RHP, Lehigh Valley: Carpenter did what he does on Thursday, surrendering 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, but keeping a clean sheet and striking out 3.  Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer's continued struggles have many calling for the Phillies to pull the plug, but the truth of the matter is that there simply aren't any better alternatives currently in the organization (assuming they're serious about not liking Figueroa in that role). Carpenter could eventually help a major league club as a long reliever, but a white knight for the rotation he's not -- nor are any of the IronPigs.

Jonathan Villar, SS-R, Lakewood: Villar turned 19 yesterday, so his .280/.366/.354 line is nice to see in Low-A.  But the 29.3% K rate is disconcerting for a kid who's only ISOing .074 and doesn't project to hit for much power down the line.  Scouts say that Villar has some work to do on his pitch recognition, and there's no better way to do that than playing every day, so perhaps the Phillies were wise to send Villar to Lakewood despite his limited experience.

Yohan Flande, LHP, Reading: The 1.52 ERA aside, Flande's 2010 campaign has been a disappointment in the early going.  He's struck out just 6 (while walking 6) in 23.2 innings across 4 starts, and it's his .267 BABIP that has kept the house of cards from tumbling down.  Flande came out of nowhere last year to wind up in the Futures Game, and you had to figure a year of consolidation in Double-A would be good for his development -- but a 2.3 K/9 mark can't be what anyone had in mind.

Colby Shreve, RHP, Lakewood: Shreve made his long-awaited pro debut last Monday, pitching an inning in relief, and followed that up with a 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K start on Thursday that earned him his first pro win.  Shreve was an overslot signing as a 2008 6th round pick out of the juco College of Southern Nevada (the school where Bryce Harper is currently playing); the Phillies drafted him knowing that he would need Tommy John surgery.  Nearly two years later, Shreve's finally letting her rip, and it'll certainly be interesting to track his progress this year.

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Great post, as always.

I don’t think Amaro ever could have been faulted for valuing Brown the highest of the three. Brown has the age advantage over Taylor, and he was no worse than equal to Drabek. I just wish Amaro had tried harder to not have to choose to keep only one of the three.

I wouldn’t mind using Carpenter over Kendrick. But I would clearly put him behind Moyer (4.43 xFIP!) and Figueroa on the depth chart.

Any thoughts about this guy Cody Overbeck in Clearwater? I know he’s too old for the level, but still, he’s a third baseman, and he’s tearing it up. Have you heard anything about his fielding?

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 10:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Agreed on all counts: I thought at the time that Amaro was wise to rate Brown highest, though I always got the sense that he chronically undervalued Taylor; and spot on re: Carpenter.

As for Overbeck… he’s certainly off to a nice start, but ARL and plate discipline should temper expectations. The knock on him when he was drafted was that he wans’t long for third base, and while he’s hanging on there, the numbers we have at our disposal are middling: career .919 fielding percentage (though .973 this year), and -10 Runs/150 via Sean Smith’s TotalZone. I think the best hope for Cody is to become some sort of four corners guy in the Ross Gload mold.

by PhillyFriar on May 3, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks. I’ll cross my fingers and hope the bump in fielding percentage this year is from hard work and genuine improvement instead of a fluke. The walk rate does look pretty bad, but even Ty Wigginton can be valuable if he can play 3B and you don’t have to pay him.

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good stuff again

What do the think the earliest Brown would be plausibly ready to fill in for an injured Ibanez/Victorino/Werth? Later this season?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 3, 2010 10:24 AM EDT reply actions  

If that happened, I’d rather use Mayberry. He’s also doing really well right now. And for a short or medium-term fix, the difference between him and Brown would probably be pretty small, and you wouldn’t have to worry as much about negative developmental effects.

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, and I think we’re also giving Francisco short shrift too (despite his 4-for-18 to begin the year). Mayberry’s doin’ work in Lehigh Valley, hitting .318/.388/.541 and playing all three outfield spots, so he’s more than ready should the need arise.

Hypothetically, though, I think Brown would be able to hold his own in the majors by sometime later this year, after he’s accumulated a couple hundred Double-A plate appearances. The only area to really monitor at this point, as far as development, is the plate discipline numbers.

by PhillyFriar on May 3, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Very true, plus the whole arb clock thing. Mayberry also gives a really credible RH power bat.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 3, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be surprised if they platooned Brown with Francisco/Mayberry next year

by Governator on May 3, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interestingly, Brown’s actually hit lefties better than righties this year and last (although that hadn’t been the case before that).

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Still it would fit Cholly’s M.O. for bringing in a young, new outfielder.

by Cormican on May 3, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

One note

Brody Colvin had his best start of the season Saturday:

6.2 IP, 7H, 4ER, 7K, 1BB

Not the best but a definite improvement. My major red flag for him right now is a 36% GB rate, but maybe that’s more a function of him pitching terribly overall the first month than his true tendencies. He definitely bears watching though.

Also, Scott Mathieson with a 2.81 FIP and 11/4 K/BB ratio in Allentown through 11.2 innings.

by Governator on May 3, 2010 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

I forget from a few years ago, does he pronounce his name maath-uh-sen or maath-eye-uh-sen?

by Steve J on May 3, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good call, Governator. I actually had it in the back of my mind to add Colvin to the update, but he got lost in the shuffle. It may take him a while to sort things out, but games like Saturday show that the potential is certainly there.

Bear in mind, too, that of the best pitching prospects among our recent high school draftees, May was held back in extended spring training before joining Lakewood in mid-June, Pettibone started in the NYPL, and Cosart only pitched in the GCL. Colvin’s very placement in the SAL show that the Phils like him, and he’s ahead of the curve at least in that regard.

by PhillyFriar on May 3, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now this is a little odd.

http://www.app.com/article/20100423/SPORTS/100423130/1002/Mattair-taking-leave-from-baseball

While it might speak better of him if it was something really serious, obviously I hope it isn’t something really serious.

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 1:44 PM EDT reply actions  

“Kids at that age, they run into situations, and you’ve got to respect that,”

That’s cryptic and makes it sound like the kid did something dumb and got himself in trouble or something.

by Cormican on May 3, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps. I was thinking serious family illness or something like that.

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

So was I, but kids that age run into situations? Doesn’t sound like a family illness to me. I still hope it’s nothing really serious, but tht’s an interesting choice of words.

by Cormican on May 3, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

thought the same thing – “kids that age” – is the unintentional reveal. Chemical dependency, psychiatric disorder, paternity situation. Pick one. Hope he gets it straightened out independent of baseball.

by Wet Luzinski on May 3, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, there were rumors floating around in spring training that Mattair had retired, but that was quickly refuted and changed to the “leave of absence” line. Unfortunately, that quote — cryptic is certainly the right word — doesn’t really tell us anything new.

As you said, hopefully everything’s alright, regardless of what Mattair eventually decides to do.

by PhillyFriar on May 3, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

for dom brown it said he wiffed 4 times over weeks?

by mks21 on May 3, 2010 4:00 PM EDT reply actions  

This is random and off topic, but I didn’t realize Tyson Gillies was black until like last week. In light of the recent talk about baseball not attracting as many young African Americans, I think it is interesting (good) that the Phillies’ minor league system is loaded with good African American talent.

Speaking of Gillies, I know he has ridiculous speed, but one of the knocks against him was that he did not have great discipline on the basepaths. Has he shown any improvement so far this season?

by FuquaManuel on May 3, 2010 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Ehh, not so much: no steals yet, though he’s been caught twice.

Glass half-full view: the more he gets on base, the better feel he’ll get for the art of base stealing.

by PhillyFriar on May 3, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Glass half-empty view: He then needs to start getting on base more than at a .272 clip.

by Cormican on May 3, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think he will. He’s always excelled at that at the lower levels. His question marks are in other areas.

by taco pal on May 3, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just to provide a point of reference, using the minor league equivalency calculator, Gillies’ season at High Desert, when converted to Reading, would forecast him to hit .281/.358/.392 this season.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on May 4, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just for clarification, the MLE tool is used to approximate how a player would have performed playing for a different team, in a different league, and/or at a different level. It’s not a forecast in that you generally expect prospects to improve as they get older. In other words, that .281/.358/.392 is an attempt to approximate what Gillies would have done had he played at Reading last year, not an attempt to project how he’d do there this year.

by PhillyFriar on May 4, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

A little off-topic since he’s not our prospect anymore, but Michael Taylor’s line screams “BABIP fluctuation” to me. His contact skills are way too advanced for him to be hitting .247. The ISO and walk rate look about the same as ever. I think he’ll still be a pretty darn good major leaguer.

by SethC on May 4, 2010 4:38 AM EDT reply actions  

I’m not so sure – if you look just at his AAA numbers, last year he had an 11.8% BB rate and a 17.3% K rate. This year, those rates are 8.2% BB and 21.4% K. I wouldn’t rule out a BABIP change, but his plate discipline also seems a bit off so far this year. It could just be a matter of switching batting coaches, but I’d want to look at it over a longer period of time to see if his discipline numbers straighten out.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on May 4, 2010 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

We’re talking a pretty small sample size so far for all 3 guys. 21.4 is a little high, but he should settle back to under 20% and over 10% on BB.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dumb question

Is K rate a factor or plate appearances or at bats (i know it’s a small difference, but still)

by jemagee on May 4, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure it’s AB’s.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, it’s at bats. Fangraphs does it this way, so while I’m not sure exactly why, I’m sure there’s a good explanation.

by PhillyFriar on May 4, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

It does seem like not using plate appearances artificially inflates the k rate, but since everyone is, presumably, measured the same way, I guess it a semantical argument.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

My guess is that it’s easier to use because at bats are everywhere while plate appearnaces are tought to find (but pitchfx allows plate appearances)

So walk rate would also be based on at bats – yet don’t count as at bats?

by jemagee on May 4, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Walk rate is plate appearances.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then there’s just no rational reason I can think of for one being based on PA and one on strikes…

That’s just silly – and i’m not going to do it

by jemagee on May 4, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

it should be plate appearances minus intentional walks (and maybe sacrifice bunts), no? otherwise walk rate and strikeout rate become difficult to compare

by Steve J on May 4, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn’t want to get to that far into it but it seemed like it was weird.

I’m going to start using plate appearnaces :)

by jemagee on May 4, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still like Taylor a heck of a lot as a prospect, so my lede was a bit, um, misleading there.

That being said, I am a tad bit concerned by the early numbers. Taylor traditionally took about 10 games to adjust to a new level before taking off, and he had already played in Triple-A before — and in much less of a hitters league (the PCL is generally more skewed toward offense than the IL). As The Dark said above, the plate discipline numbers are down from where they were, and while it’s certainly a small sample size, it was reasonable to expect Taylor to get off to a hot start.

On the whole, though, I agree with you — he’ll still be a pretty darn good major leaguer.

by PhillyFriar on May 4, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeesh

As if one Jason Heyward in the division wasn’t enough to worry about, it looks as if by next year we’re gonna have two.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/04/28/the-follow-list-marlins-mike-stanton-is-punishing-double-a/

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2010/269886.html

It’s a good thing we have Brown, although he’s actually two years older than either one of these guys, so not as good as a prospect I guess.

by taco pal on May 4, 2010 2:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Stanton is a monster. The walk rate is a tad bit misleading, as Southern League pitchers have pretty much stopped throwing to him (KG called it the Barry Bonds treatment), but the power is very, very real. How’s a .524 ISO? That’s right, not slugging percentage… ISO.

Brown’s a heck of a prospect in his own right, but these guys are miles ahead of him. No shame in that, though; they’re pretty much miles ahead of anyone not named “Strasburg” anyway.

by PhillyFriar on May 4, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strasburg

Who’s also in our division! Of all the rotten luck.

by taco pal on May 4, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope to see him play next weekend., as he’ll be playing down the road from me. Since the Reds AA is a little barren on prospects this year (aside from Alonso), I keep looking to see who is coming to town.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously, I hope he’s still there so you have the chance. Methinks Triple-A beckons in a short time.

by PhillyFriar on May 4, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was really looking forward to watching Chapman and Leake and getting to meet them, but then the bastards went and pitched well in spring training and got promoted above AA. If he goes to AAA, I’ll have to wait until he’s pro to see him as the Zephyrs don’t play in the same league as the Bulls.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

by “he” I mean Stanton.

by Cormican on May 4, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

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