What would you do to keep Jayson Werth?
by taco pal on May 10, 2010 9:35 AM EDT
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Here's a hypothetical question for y'alls.
IF, on July 31, 2010, you could:
1. Work out a trade, in which you would get no more than a nominal return in exchange for either (a) Raul Ibanez while assuming, let's say, 1/3 of his remaining salary, or (b) Shane Victorino,
AND
2. Work out an extension with Jayson Werth's agent for, let's say, 5 more years at $20 million per year.
Would you do it?
This is the only way I can see Werth realistically remaining in Philadelphia after 2010.
Note the cons for the trade:
1. You would have to live with a D. Brown/Francisco/Mayberry/Dobbs mashup in either left field or right field for the remainder of 2010, including the postseason. This is very likely to be a step down from Ibanez or Victorino (whichever one is traded) for the rest of this year.
2. You would have about $8 million less to spend this offseason on other needs for 2011.
3. You would be committing the team to pay $20 million to Werth in his age-36 season.
4. You would lose two draft picks that you would otherwise get.
5. I doubt this would go over too well in the clubhouse. I know we generally don't give much truck to "clubhouse" issues here because they tend to get wildly overstated among traditional commentators, but they're still legitimate as a secondary consideration. If this scenario were to play out, could it create a feeling of betrayal or disloyalty among the remaining core players? Could it lead to any resentment toward Brown (or, for that matter, toward Werth)? Brown is pretty much destined to be placed under immense pressure regardless of how or when he eventually gets to Philadelphia. This scenario would just about maximize that level of pressure.
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Personally, I don’t think I would pull the trigger.
For various reasons, I don’t think it’s realistic to think that this switcheroo can be executed properly after the season. It’s either at the deadline or not at all.
I couldn’t think of a good title for this post. If anyone has any suggestions, I’m all ears.
How about trading Raul in the offseason and eating most of his contract, maybe saving about 5 mil? Use that money and bite the 10 million dollar bullet for one year to keep Werth in right. Sign him 5 years 85 mil for the hometown discount, and bring Dom Brown up to play left next year. If Raul can heat up a little bit and become tradeable in the offseason it’s a possibility. I just think Amaro looks pretty bad right now. That contract for Raul is going to bite him in the ass now because he can’t resign Werth. Why not make it a team option for a third year on Raul? This wouldn’t be happening.
1. Werth isn’t going to give you a hometown discount. Why would he? Relying on the discount is elevating wishful thinking over real planning.
2. It will be close to impossible to pull off this kind of triple bankshot in the offseason. This is because Werth will be free to negotiate a contract with other teams at the exact same time you are negotiating a trade with other teams. You will need to agree to terms with both Werth and your trading partner simultaneously, otherwise it’s not going to work out, and that’s highly unlikely to happen. Especially when you consider that any team who might be willing to trade for Ibanez or Victorino would be just as likely to be interested in signing Werth itself.
3. What is your answer to my hypothetical question? I don’t mind discussing the parameters of the hypothetical, but I think it will ultimately be more interesting to find out what people’s value judgments are assuming the parameters I’ve set out.
I sort of disagree on the hometown discount, but mostly because I don’t think a home town discount always has to be about money.
It could be about when Werth gets his money, it could be a year at the end of the contract or how the option year he is sure to get is worded.
Either way, I think Werth wants to stay here. All you ever hear is positive comments about his teammates, organization and the city out of his mouth. The dude came to spring training looking like a blonde Charles Manson and the Philly fan’s response is to love him more for it. He fits here.
Where is he going to go? To the Yankees? Please! Werth values his facial hair well above a couple of million dollars.
by Clyde Simmons on May 10, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I think werth wants to get paid what he’s worth
His career trajectory before he got to philadlephia was rather, um, injury prone, he’s going to want to secure his future…
I hate the whole ‘he wants to stay here’ bull – 99% of all free agents who hit the market go to the team that offers them the most money…
by jemagee on May 10, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t get that impression from what I read about him and what he has said [other than the typical ‘’I love playing here’’ platitudes] regarding this subject . We either pay him or he’s gone. He’s already has one thing every player wants, a WS ring so it make sense that he want the other thing every player wants: the big career defining contract.
To the Clubhouse thing?
I think it would go over ok. Dom Brown would be under a lot of pressure and if he failed it would look pretty bad, but he’s coming up next season if Werth isn’t here anyways. Then he has to be put under the pressure of replacing Jason Werth. Not too easy. I honestly think that moving Ibanez wouldn’t hurt the clubhouse, since Werth was playing during the World Series victory and has been a more important piece to the Phillies recent success. I really do think Werth would sign a contract that could be backloaded, being worth about 5 year 90 mil. The Phillies were the team he blew up with why wouldn’t he want to stay? The fans love him and he seems to really enjoy the atmosphere.
If they resign Werth to an extension during the year, you don’t HAVE to trade Ibanez during the upcoming offseason. You can test the market, and if it’s impossible to move him then I guess either platoon with Raul (unless Raul is doing well) or have another season in AAA. Either way I don’t mind, but it would be nice to get some young blood in the outfield.
Raul is still a good player. The problem is not that Raul is untradeable. Otherwise, it wouldn’t matter whether we tried to trade him in July or in the offseason. The problem is the timing: the odds of simultaneously working out a trade of Raul and an extension for Werth in the offseason, when Werth will also be free to negotiate with every other team in the league, is slim and none.
Frankly, if Ibanez has a decent year this year (and I think he will), I would rather have Ibanez for one more year + two draft picks + budget flexibility, than Werth at $20 million. Others may differ on that, but that’s the question I’d like to discuss. Not wishful-thinking fantasies like “what if Werth gives us a hometown discount.”
Perhaps he isn’t untradeable but he’s barely tradeable. He’s good player but a sunk cost esp. in light of the changing attitude towards the DH. Consider the following passge from this article from Fangraphs:
Teams are choosing to increase their flexibility, even if it comes at the expense of some production. Increasingly, teams want the option to use the DH spot as a pseudo off day for their regulars, or as a fall back plan if their banged-up position player is unable to acceptably field his position. With the move towards 12 man pitching staffs, limited bench sizes put a premium on roster flexibility, and teams are reacting by devaluing players who can’t play the field.
Given that there are only 14 designated hitter jobs in baseball to begin with, this is bad news for aging players. If even half of those teams move towards a rotating-DH plan, you’d be left with only a half dozen or so full time, offense only players. To get one of those jobs, you’d have to be a monster of a hitter, a David Ortiz in his prime kind of guy. And once you decline even a little bit, your chances of getting another job go out the window
.
Who knows what the year will bring and what teams needs will be, but I don’t see him going anywhere unless it’s in some package deal.
I don’t understand how that article is relevant. Ibanez may not be a particularly good fielder but he isn’t David Ortiz or Pat Burrell. He can still play the field.
Is it your position that if Ibanez were a free agent after this season, nobody would be willing to sign him to a one-year, $7.5 million deal?
Anyway, this is all missing the point. My question is: If you could trade Ibanez (or Victorino) and re-sign Werth to a multi-year deal on July 31, 2010, would you do it?
It’s a tough question. As it stands now, I don’t see how we can get it done esp. as he is 36. If he was 30 then I’d say hell yes. It’s not worth the long term term cost esp. with the Howard contract, however depending on who we get for him, I ’d have say our chances, this year at least, to win the title will take a significant hit.
The point of the passage was to show this change in attitiude towards the DH limits our options in trading him because AL teams are opting to go a different plan that doesn’t include an aging offensive player with sub par fielding skills which is what Raul is. And his fielding skills more than likely will decline.
Is it your position that if Ibanez were a free agent after this season, nobody would be willing to sign him to a one-year, $7.5 million deal?
No. It’s more about the difficulty in trading him by the deadline.
Wait I think I see what your asking
Is it your position that if Ibanez were a free agent after this season, nobody would be willing to sign him to a one-year, $7.5 million deal?
I think you meant:
So if he is traded to a team would that team be willing to pay for 7.5 million a year for his services next year? Assuming that this is why the trade would happen in the first place – I think it depends on his performance this year (up until the tradeline) just because he’ll be 39 by next season.
Actually I think he could be traded for a package of good bench players…well at least better than what we have now.
I don’t think you’re getting picks for Ibanez. If you were a contender, would you sign him for his age 39/40/41 years and forfeit your first round pick?
I think he is tradable next winter, if the Phils eat about half the salary and don’t expect much coming back (a middle reliever or B prospect would be fine IMO).
Frankly, if Ibanez has a decent year this year (and I think he will), I would rather have Ibanez for one more year + two draft picks + budget flexibility, than Werth at $20 million.
What I meant was: I would rather keep Ibanez, let Werth walk, and take the two picks for Werth. As opposed to extending Werth, trading Ibanez, and getting no picks.
If Ibanez does well this year, I don’t think the Phillies would have to eat half his salary to trade him. They might have to eat some lesser amount.
In any event, I don’t see any realistic scenario in which the Phillies would want to trade him in the offseason. It might make sense for them to want to trade him at this year’s trade deadline, but trying to trade him during the offseason wouldn’t work logistically.
I’d be just as happy with a quality utility guy. We totally lucked out with Castro unexpected performance from which he’s started to regress. After Moyers’s Friday Night Miracle, it’s hard to complain about I think the Sat. loss but I think it highlighted our need for improving the bench esp with the team getting older.
dammit there goes my bad typing again
it’s hard to complain about I think the Sat. loss but I think it highlighted our need for improving the bench esp with the team getting older.
should be
it’s hard to complain about the Sat. loss but I think it highlighted our need for improving the bench esp with the team getting older.
Every once in a while you see a home town discount on a monster contract (but when it’s 180 million how much is it truly discounted for Minnesota?)
I still think the biggest unknown in the entirety of the phillies contract universe is the starting second baseman and if he knocks on RAJ’s door and says “Ahem, um, I’m pretty good, i probably should have two MVPs and I do all that ‘stuff’ you said ryan howard does plus at a harder position – can i please have some more money”
I presume that the hope by many who know more than me is the Dom Brown is ready for next season right?
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 7:08 PM EDT reply actions
When you do see a hometown discount, it almost never happens while the player is actually on the open market fielding offers from other teams. They happen when the player is still under contract for a while yet.
I think Brown will probably be ready for next year, but it isn’t a 100% set-in-stone kind of thing. But given a choice, I would rather suffer a little with a green Brown for one season than commit myself to a huge multi-year FA contract that might turn out to be unnecessary after that one season.
Well – would it really be unnecessary…in the next 2 off seasons the phillies need to replace two outfielders (if they don’t re-sign) werth, and while Brown I’m sure is fabulous he can’t play left and right can he?
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
in the next 2 off seasons the phillies need to replace two outfielders (if they don’t re-sign) werth
Maybe, but it’s too far out into the future to make that assumption.
Meaning, we could develop another outfielder by 2012. Or if not by 2012, then by 2013, in which case we’d only need a stopgap solution. Extending Werth would commit large amounts of money to him through something like 2015, probably.
As I understood it the only phillies prospect who projected to be ready close to then for the outfield was traded for Roy Halladay – did someone step up this year?
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No, that’s wrong. Michael Taylor, the prospect who was traded for Halladay, was the only outfield prospect (other than Brown) who was projected to be ready by 2011, not 2012 or 2013.
For 2012, Tyson Gillies has gotten off to a slow start so far this year, but he’s a legit prospect who’s playing at AA this year.
2013 is so far out that pretty much any outfield prospect who’s playing full season ball right now could potentially be ready to play by then if they develop. Impossible to project that far ahead.
What, not who
How long is victorino under contract for?
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
so – it could be the entire outfield needs to turn over in a couple years – i know it’s far off – but turning over an entire infield well in two off seasons seems iffy
Especially if budgets (and over paying a first baseman) prevent you from doing plan A
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be. Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.
The point is that the Phillies must develop new players or else they will stop being a good team. If they fail to develop new players, then signing more big contracts to fill in the gaps won’t fix the problem.
I’m not saying the Phillies can’t extend Werth under any circumstances. Hence my hypothetical. I’m just saying that uncertainty over when Brown will be ready is not the right basis for extending Werth.
But Master Yoda, the future of the outfield (quickly too) is not just determined by Jayson Werth as Raul IBanez and Shane Victorino might depart for the dark side (or retirement) in the not too distant future. Thinking about Werths value alone, or even only considering Brown is a vacuum of thought that ignores much regarding the future of the phillies. I"m not advocating signing werth to 100 million dollar deal, just saying that there are a lot of moving pieces and variables in the next couple seasons.
Of course this is why Ray-J earns the big bucks
by jemagee on May 9, 2010 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I would rather he earn big bucks by not signing Ibanez deals and Moyer deals for 3/2 years, respectively. There are some unpleasant contracts out there. As for Vic, I’d let him walk after 2012. He’s going to age like week old fish.
Ibanez can walk, too, but the team is saddled with him for another nearly two years. I’m also not sold that JW is worth a mega contract for declining years, either. It’s not like jw has a huge body of work.
Victorino, Ibanez, and Brown plus two picks is not a catastrophe in 2011. For 2012, Brown, Victorino, and Gillies might work. Maybe with a Gload/stairs-like player in the mix.
My main opposition is to seeing a whole bunch of Phillies hit 33-34 y/o all at once with monster contracts. Some laddering would be nice.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on May 9, 2010 9:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wasn’t (and still am not) a big fan of the Ibanez and Moyer contracts either, but honestly, I don’t think either one of them is going to turn out all that bad for us in the end. They may have prevented the team from doing certain things that would have been ideal. But it doesn’t look to me like we’re going to get stuck paying money for no production at the end of either contract, which can’t be said of a great many other FA contracts out there. I doubt that either contract would even make the Top 50 worst contracts in MLB today.
1. You would have to live with a D. Brown/Francisco/Mayberry/Dobbs mashup in either left field or right field for the remainder of 2010, including the postseason.
I fear this may be exactly why RAJ would do this, and I’m not so sure it’s all that bad. Still, given the RAJ Cliff Lee fallout I tend to believe he is after draft picks and greening up the lineup.
by Wet Luzinski on May 10, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I vote we sign his beard for to extension and let his body walk
"World Champions...World F***in Champions" -Chase Utley
So Taco P. do you think he’ll be gone by 7-31-10? Or do we keep him for the remainder of the season and then he’s gone?
I think you misunderstood my post. I’m not asking if Werth should be traded at the deadline. I’m asking if you think we should pull the trigger if, at the deadline, we can work out both (a) a trade of Ibanez or Victorino, and (b) a contract extension for Werth.
Nope. As tempting as it maybe, I don’t see how we can manage the contract extension without compromising the future too much. But so far this year, he sure is making his case. So with that cleared up how about my question -
do you think he’ll be gone by 7-31-10? Or do we keep him for the remainder of the season and then he’s gone?
I’m thinking he’ll stay and then be gone. I ask because with RAJ lastest move I don’t know what to think.
Phuture Phillies Examines the Werth Scenario
Great read. I think I like this point the most:
It really always makes sense to backload contracts for as long as you can. You hope that revenue continues to rise, and what looks big now ($19M for Werth in 2015), looks like an average deal in 2015. Lots of Phillies fans were surprised the Phillies gave Rollins a 5/40 deal in 2006. Now that deal looks like a big bargain. Utley’s 7/85 deal stacked up next to Holliday’s 7/120?
I'm a Nationals fan checking in....
…I thought the whole point of the Howard extension was that you felt that Howard was more essential than Werth and that you had Dominic Brown to replace him. Werth is going to be talking about how much he loves Philly now because he does love Philly and he wants more bidders in the pond at the end of this season.
I know that I’ve been kicking around Federal Baseball a little bit right now whether Werth would be a good fit on the Nationals. We have diddleysquat in RF in the Willie Harris/Willy Taveras/Roger Bernadina platoon situation and the closest prayer for a legit prospect is Michael Burgess at RF. Our ownership group is cheap and I expect them to address position difficulties via trade a la Willingham rather than by free agency. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nats bid on Werth but are ultimately priced out.
Werth’s a great player, but how much does the ballpark help him? Perhaps Amaro is already thinking about letting him go and one of the reasons he was willing to move the prospects over the offseason is because he knows he has picks coming in.
Any money that you use to sign Werth would probably be better spent on a combination of bullpen help and a back end starter from a WAR per dollar standpoint. I’d spend the money on pitching personally and not sign Werth if I were the Phillies.
Uh...yeah...Let's gets that Calder Cup!!!!
The five-minute snippet that I caught from today’s WIP morning show involved this very topic. Morganti noted that extending Werth could be possible if we traded Victorino but worried aloud that this would mess with the core of the team. (He did not address the timing issues that I think are crucial to the dilemma.) Cataldi bombastically cut in and proclaimed that the Phillies need to do this, that Victorino should be sacrificed for Werth, etc. I have a strong feeling that if (as is likely) Werth continues to perform well this year, the talking heads are going to make it an all-out crusade to force the Phillies to re-sign him, in the proud tradition of Ricky Williams. It is at times like this that I’m glad we have a super-smug GM in charge.
Is Victorino really considered a “core” player? He’s definitely a great clubhouse guy and contributor to the team, but he doesn’t fit that “core” mold that Rollins, Utley, and Howard do.
Although, a “core” player needs to be defined to me.
I could easily see Victorino moved. Werth can move to CF with Brown in Right next year. I like Victorino (especially the way his bat has been this year) but I still see him as a selfish and stupid player sometimes (he is friends with that Jon Gosselin guy last I’ve seen). I mean yes you lose out a lot with him and his speed, and with Polanco on this team you can remove a bat like Victorino too with a bit more ease and have that fill in player for the lead off role when Rollins isn’t producing.
Friendship with Jon Gosselin is not a sound basis for making important personnel decisions.
I agree that Victorino is dispensable under the right circumstances. But the main problem with extending Werth isn’t the fact that you’ll have to lose Ibanez or Victorino. The main problem is the fact that you’ll have to extend Werth. People are getting carried away over the fact that 2010 Werth is a great player. That may be true, but giving a multi-year mega-deal to an outfielder who will be 31 at the end of the year when the outfield is our farm system’s deepest position, is problematic no matter how great that outfielder is.
Step one to keeping Werth here LT, does not start with the FO giving the contract they just gave to Howard.
Keep tearing it up Jayson. Go get yours come winter.
by andyreidswaistline on May 10, 2010 11:20 AM EDT reply actions
Ibanez's no-trade clause
Ibanez has a no-trade clause but what I am not clear on if it is something similar to what Halladay has (e.g., 10 teams) or it is a full no-trade. I think it is the former. Anybody know for sure?
http://www.prorumors.com/baseball/contract-information/Ibanez/Raul/ibanera01/ibanera01con05/2011
if thats reputable at all…
Cot’s Contracts:
- 3 years/$31.5M (2009-11)
* signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 12/16/08
* $2M signing bonus
* 09:$6.5M, 10:$11.5M, 11:$11.5M
* no-trade protection
* award bonuses: $0.1M for WS MVP; $0.1M for MVP ($75,000 for 2nd in vote, $50,000 for 3rd); $50,000 for Gold Glove, All Star, LCS MVP, AP/TSN/BA All Star
I have seen writers (including the Philly guys) say it was either a full no-trade clause but I am pretty sure it is only for a limited number of teams that Ibanez can choose (7-10).
I’d like to think that Werth is one of those guys who’s going to get signed by another team to a crazy contract and then regress to his mean.
In response to TP’s opening salvo:
I say “no”. I don’t commit to $20 mil/yr to Jayson Werth, who is a toolsy corner OFer. If I could dump Raul and sign Werth to a lower salary ($12mil/yr or so) I’d jump on it, but I don’t think that’s possible.
I’ve seen the commentary about how the organization has Brown, but nothing much else down there to replace an OFer with. My basic premise is that if a guy has a good bat and nowhere to field, you can stick him in RF/LF/1B.
Burrell went through the minors as a 3B and was put in LF b/c we had Rolen at 3B. Replacing the fielding aspects of those guys isn’t that hard, because you can stick Greg Dobbs out there, and it won’t be that big a drop off. Replacing his power will be difficult.
Ibanez is next to impossible to trade this offseason especially if his power really dips this season. Besides his large salary ($12.2M), he also has that no-trade clause and is basically a LF/DH player.
If the Phils are trying to move him, I would imagine opposing GM’s would demand a pirate’s ransom because they will nearly hold all of the cards. So the Phils would maybe free up $6M at the most and get nothing in return.
Obviously if Ibanez stinks this year he won’t be tradeable, but that’s not really a reasonable assumption. If Ibanez performs in line with his projections (.850 OPS according to the updated ZIPS on Fangraphs), then he will not be “next to impossible to trade.”
Phillies fandom appears to be universally gripped in the throes of hyperbole over Ibanez’s contract. We might have to eat some fraction of it in a trade, but an untradeable contract is one that you can’t even give away without eating the vast majority of it because the player is no longer productive. Ibanez is not even close to fitting that description. He is still a productive player and he’s only somewhat overpaid this year.
Bobby Abreu is a comparable player who received two years at $9 million per in last year’s depressed economy. Hideki Matsui is an inferior player who received one year at $6 million in last year’s depressed economy. If Ibanez posts an .850 this year, he will not be untradeable.
The problem with trading Ibanez in the offseason is not that no one will want him, but because it will be nearly impossible, logistically, to work out a trade while simultaneously working out an extension with Werth. Plus, it might not even be desirable, because giving a mega-deal to Werth might be a bad decision in and of itself.
Ibanez isn’t Jenkins. He is still a productive player. Still, his HR, SLG, and ISO numbers have dipped since he came off the DL last July and continued through this year. Normally, it would be a big issue but you do have to wonder given his age. Probably have a pretty good idea by the end of June.
My bet is that he ends up closer to say .260/.340/.460. If he gets 1 or 2 hot streaks where he hits for more power, then he will end up much closer to .850 or even exceed it by a bit.
If he is at .800 OPS though with the diminished power numbers (HR, SLG, ISO) and weak defense numbers, then he will be harder to trade. Probably should be a DH next year.
It is just hard to see Amaro being able to largely move most/if not all of salary if they tried to move Ibanez though. His no-trade clause (say it removes 10 teams) complicates things a little bit and other teams know the Phils will be trying to move him to resign Werth. I would demand a pound of flesh for him namely in terms of cash from the Phils.
Ibanez as a starting DH somewhere at $6M or slightly lessor so is pretty attractive. Not so much as a LF at $9M.
Well, I think he’ll end up closer to .850 than .800. Of course, time will tell. I also think that far too much has been made of his injury last year. To me, any correlation between his injury and the “dip” in his numbers afterwards was coincidental, post hoc ergo propter hoc stuff. Ibanez actually performed well right after he returned from the DL – the “dip” in his numbers was attributable to a mini-slump he went through several weeks later (which then ended, as he finished the year strong). He’s just a streaky player and always has been.
I also don’t think he’s a “weak” defender. He isn’t good, but this isn’t Hideki Matsui we’re talking about out there. He’s mediocre.
Matsui’s knees are shot though. He can’t play anymore in the field. Ibanez is limited though to just LF and can’t play in a park where there is a moderate amount of space. Maybe he could play 1B for a team.
Nothing against Ibanez but if the Phils could trade his salary & get just a bag of baseballs in return, I would be happy with that. Not a stretch to think that Brown could get close to duplicating his offensive numbers next year (lose some power but an ~.800 OPS wouldn’t be that tough to replace) and he would likely be a better defender in LF.
That’s exactly my point. Matsui got a $6 million deal because his knees are shot and he can’t play the field anymore. Ibanez’s knees aren’t shot and he can still play the field, so a one-year deal for him would be worth more than a one-year deal for Matsui last year was worth. What you said supports my argument.
The whole premise of this conversation is that we’d only be getting a “bag of baseballs” for Ibanez (or Victorino), so I don’t understand how that remark is responsive to anything I said. My whole point is that we can probably get rid of Ibanez if we need to free up a position and money so we can keep Werth and Brown. The question is whether we want to. And I don’t think we do.
The choice is not between Ibanez and Brown. Brown should be in the starting lineup next year no matter what, so comparing Ibanez and Brown is wrongheaded. The choice is between Ibanez and Werth. Or, to be more precise, the choice is between
Just to play devil's advocate...
We talked about the various scenarios for how Howard will age, and while Werth is 6 mos older than Howard, chances are he will age better.
However – Werth turns 31 on May 20, so while he’s been hot so far this year, I’d say let’s not assume that he will continue at this pace. Possible scenarios:
a) 2009 was his career year, and 2010 will begin his decline phase, in spite of his first 31 games
b) 2010 will be his career year, and he will then begin his decline phase
c) he will continue at the 2009-May2010 level for several more years
As someone else said, you can only keep locking up your veterans for so long.
Having said that, I would hate to lose him, and I would like to see which of these scenarios becomes reality with him in a Phillies uniform. My ideal scenario is that they find the money and the right deal to sign him, and Brown is phased in throughout 2011 (assuming Ibanez is still here).
I would go with the former scenario here. Signing one guy to a long-term contract like Howard is already a risky move but signing two long-term like that is asking for trouble. They might backload of a bit of the contract but they would have over $75M committed to just 4 players in ’12 and ’13 (Utley, Howard, Halladay, and Werth).
Maybe 1 or 2 of those guys perform at close to the dollars they are getting especially Utley but asking for all 4 guys to do so in ‘12 and ’13 seems to be in the ’wishful-thinking’ category.
I guess I should make the point that even if Werth leaves, I would mind seeing the Phils move Ibanez if they could clear most/if not all of his salary. Just don’t see that being a reality. Moving him is going to likely require a significant financial contribution on the Phils’ part. Ibanez may have more value than Matsui but the Phils are limited to where they can move him by the no-trade and the situation with Werth. Maybe I wrong but I can’t see teams that interested in a 39-year old LF/DH who would be making more than $6M.
Phils aren’t going to have much financial leeway next year even if Werth resigns elsewhere. Only Lidge, Madson, and Baez are signed in the pen and back of the rotation will be interesting especially if Happ’s elbow injury which has been hampering him since early March turns out to be more serious.
This might make sense if we were talking about a “generic 39-year-old LF/DH” as an abstraction. But instead, we are talking about a real-life LF (not a DH), who was projected by the five methods on Fangraphs to post an .840 OPS this year, and who would only have one year remaining on his contract (and, by the way, will be 38, not 39, next Opening Day). So generalizations about generic 39-year-olds are not really pertinent, nor are they a sound basis for decision-making here.
I don’t understand how you can simultaneously concede that Ibanez is worth more than Matsui, yet are unable to see how teams would be willing to pay Ibanez more than Matsui was paid last year.
You are assuming that Ibanez will rebound to .840-.850. I don’t. We have to see on that point.
Ibanez turns 39 on June 2nd next year. So yeah, he will be a 39-year old LF/DH next season.
As for Ibanez’s value, yes if he were a FA this offseason I could see him getting a slightly better deal 1-yr than Matsui got. He isn’t though. Phils are stuck paying him $12.2M with limited ability to move him due to that no-trade clause.
If I am opposing GM who knows the Phils options are somewhat limited to moving Ibanez & I am not sure what type of offense he might give me next year, then I would drive a pretty hard financial bargain on him with the Phils picking up a meaningful part of his deal next year.
I don’t see this as being a material difference, because the Phillies have the option not to deal Ibanez and therefore driving a hard bargain against them will only get an opposing GM so far. Ibanez is not Geoff Jenkins. If they are “forced” to keep him, then they won’t be “stuck” with anything. They’ll have a commodity with legitimate on-field value, even if it is somewhat overpaid.
Let’s say Ibanez’s “real” worth for 2011 is $X million. So the Phillies will lose X-12.2 in value next year by keeping him around. If the opposing GM demands that the Phillies assume more than |X-12.2| of Ibanez’s salary in order to trade him, then the Phillies just won’t trade him. Why would they?
As for .840, all I’m doing is taking the mean of the five projection systems on Fangraphs. An optimistic viewpoint would be more like .875. Of course, we will see the answer in due time. But .840 is what the formulas say, not me.
He could be dramatically overpaid depending upon what kind of numbers he puts up. Even if Ibanez had only put an .850 OPS last year, he would have been a relative value because his contract was back-loaded. He only made $8.5M last year plus some marginal incentive money. He was a value last year any way you slice it just on his offensive numbers alone. Defensively, he played stronger than people thought including a strong April/May until his numbers lagged a bit the rest of the year.
If his OPS dips to say even .820 and he ends up being defensively-neutral or slightly below average, then he ends likely being a ~2 WAR. Probably slightly below that.
It isn’t that hard to see how Ibanez might give the Phils only half of their projected value or less next year on his $12.2M salary. That’ all. The SABR-oriented FO people will see that and the more conventional GM will see the likely notable decline in HR & SLG.
First of all, that’s a big “if.” While Ibanez is 37 years old, CHONE, ZIPS, etc. are projection systems that take age into account. For 2010, an .860 is just as reasonable an estimate as an .820 is.
Second, my understanding at least was that the cost of 1 WAR on the FA market was between $4 and $5 million, in the past couple of offseasons’ dollars. The price will be higher next offseason than it has been in the recent past, so assuming that Ibanez would only get 2 WAR in 2011 would not require the Phillies to take on half of his salary in a trade.
It isn’t unreasonable to assume that Ibanez might only be a 1.5 WAR player next year especially if he is a full-time LF again. The value of a WAR might be modestly higher but it is more likely that Ibanez ends up being worth about half of his contract.
Amaro knew that going into the contract and is gambling that backloading it won’t give them that much of a hit to their value in the 3rd year. That was the big debate really I remember on signing him last year. Just what kind of ROI would the Phils get in the later part of the contract (specifically on the 3rd year).
“Isn’t unreasonable” != a fair middle-of-the-bell-curve estimate. Yes it is realistically possible that the facts will break in a manner that is sufficiently negative to validate your argument, but it is just as possible that the facts will break in a manner that is even more positive than my argument requires. I think the important thing we need to be looking at here is what is likely, not what is “not unreasonable.”
What the heck are we even arguing about anymore? What are we apart by, one half or three fourths of a WAR? Why don’t we both just declare victory and shut the hell up?
I’ve thought about this
And I’d do more than i’d do for a klondike bar
but less than i’d do for a million dollars
by jemagee on May 13, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
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