FanPost

Ryan Howard Swinging too much? Take 2

Well I mess this up the first time, but a comment in today's game thread that ryan howard swings 'too much' at early hitters counts (1-0 2-1 specifically) gave me motivation to try and figure out if I could query it and then see if it said anything.  (Anyone who reads what i say might know that i've been struggling to rebuilding pitchfx for this and the past two seasons recently - and when you work on four very different databases sometimes the muscles atrophy so practice is nice)

So, I had posted this partially once, but it turns out that i was in the wrong database (2010) when I first published the numbers, so I'm rewriting with 2009 and 2010 because I think 6 weeks of the season represents a small sample size over all to indicate trends for this season.

No fancy lay outs or statistical analysis for me - I'm not that informed yet - and outcome is irrelevant to what I did, 'not swings' are balls and called strikes, hbp, swings are fouls, missed bunts, swinging strikes and balls in play without outcome being used:

 

2009 - 1-0 Count - League Wide - 78,180 Occurrences

  • Swings - 40.0%
  • Not Swings - 60.0%

2009- 1-0 Count - Ryan Howard - 331 Occurrences

  • Swings - 48.3%
  • Not Swings - 51.7%

2010 - 1-0 Count - League Wide - 14,366 Occurrences

  • Swings 38.9%
  • Not Swings 61.1%

2010 - 1-0 Count - Ryan Howard - 54 Occurrences

  • Swings 46.3%
  • Not Swings 53.7%

2009 - 2-1 Count - League Wide - 39,731 Occurrences

  • Swing 58.4%
  • Not Swing 41.6%

2009- 2-1 Count - Ryan Howard - 187 Occurrences

  • Swing 57.8%
  • Not Swing 42.2%

2010 - 2-1 Count - League Wide - 7,321 Occurrences

  • Swing 57.0%
  • Not Swing 43.0%

2010 - 2-1 Count - Ryan Howard - 19 Occurrences

  • Swing 68.4%
  • Not Swing 31.6%

So, it's early this year, but yes Ryan Howard has been more aggressive on a rather small sample of 2-1 pitches but less aggressive on the 1-0 pitches then he was last year.  However, this year he is above the league average for the approach to both counts, whereas last year while much more aggressive on 1-0 counts, Howard was probably within the error of league average on 2-1 pitches. Of course 2010 might just be rather small sample size.

If anyone is interested in deeper look at the numbers in terms of outcome of the at bat, or what happens with balls that were put in play, feel free to ask. 

2010 numbers include games played through May 8th.

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