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Phillies Prospect Roundup (Tuesday Edition): Who will save us from our slump?

With the holiday weekend pushing this week's roundup back to Tuesday, we're actually less than a week away from the annual Major League Baseball Draft.  I'll be publishing a brief Q&A later this week that I've done with Andy Seiler from MLB Bonus Baby, the SB Nation blog devoted to the draft, but in the meantime, I want to point you to Andy's MLB Draft Notebook that he's offering through his website. If you have any interest in the draft at all, it's well worth the $9.99 that he's selling it for on the sidebar of his website.

I'm also going to point you to the rather lengthy (but excellent, as always) piece that James from Phuture Phillies wrote previewing the draft from a Phils' perspective. It's impossible to know what Marti Wolever & Co. will do with their first round pick at this point, let alone their later picks, but James takes a look at past draft history and tries to narrow down the list of possibilities.

Additionally, I think the prospect roundup will take a week hiatus while we focus on the draft from next Monday through Wednesday. So cherish this as the last roundup for -- gasp! -- 13 days, as we give Domonic Brown the week off and check in with some other Phillies prospects...

Star-divide

Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Reading: You generally want to hesitate to draw any overarching conclusions based on a 10-start sample, but it's hard not to think that the wheels have fallen off for the big righthander. Friday's start wasn't pretty no matter how you slice it -- 4.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R (6 ER), 4 BB, 2 K -- and in 44.2 innings on the year, he's now walked more batters (35) than he's struck out (34).  Reports are that his sinker just isn't the same pitch out of the rotation, and while it's still too early to give up on Aumont as a starter, it's not exactly looking good right now.

Anthony Gose, OF-L, Clearwater: Ask and ye shall receive! I'm certain that Gose must have read last week's prospect roundup, because after I dinged his plate discipline, he tallied 6 free passes in 7 games (against 5 strikeouts). More generally, his .256/.320/.393 line so far this year (through 235 PA) compares favorably to his .259/.323/.353 line from last year, especially considering that the former is actually above average in the pitching friendly FSL. Another reason to be optimistic: Gose improved in last season's second half, and if he can replicate that feat this year, he'll make another jump up prospect lists.

Domingo Santana, OF-R, Lakewood: Santana ripped a homer on Memorial Day, but it's otherwise been tough sledding for the 17-year old, as he sports a .190/.341/.313 line through 182 plate appearances. The 15.9% BB is nice to see, but his ISO has tumbled to just .123, and he's still struggling to make contact, with a whopping 45.6% K. He's a prime candidate to head to the New York-Penn League once play kicks off there in a couple of weeks, and while there's no real reason to be concerned, it is fair to question whether the Phillies may have been a bit overaggressive in assigning him to Lakewood in the first place.

Jonathan Singleton, 1B-L, Lakewood: Ho hum, just another 13-for-30 showing since our last prospect roundup. The 18-year old notched a 4-hit game, a 3-hit game, and a pair of 2-hit games since last Monday, enough to garner a couple of mentions from prospect guru Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus. At this point, I can't tell you anything that Singleton's season numbers don't, so here they are (through 77 PA): .409/.481/.682, 13.0% BB, 19.7% K, .273 ISO.

Drew Naylor, RHP, Reading: The Aussie was fantastic last Tuesday (9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K), and a little bit less so on Sunday (5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 2 K). His FIP is down to 3.25, though his peripherals still don't really wow anyone (5.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 40.2% GB).  Naylor celebrated his 24th birthday yesterday, so he is what he is at this point, and I remain convinced that it's not enough to make it as a major league starter.  The bullpen could possibly be another story, as he's always reportedly had a nice curve, and if he can add a few ticks to his fastball by working in shorter stints, perhaps his K numbers would inch back up into a more acceptable range.

Sebastian Valle, C-R, Lakewood: It's only been a few games, but we might be seeing the Mexican backstop starting to turn things around. Valle had a hit in every game he played in over the past week, going 7-for-19 since last Monday with a pair of homers (just his second and third on the year). What's more, he earned a two free passes while only striking out three times over that stretch. A .244/.293/.350 line is far from what was expected of him heading into the season, but the calendar has only now turned to June, so there's time for Valle to right the ship if he can build on his recent good stretch.

John Mayberry, OF-R, Lehigh Valley: Mayberry's 26 years old, so he is what he is at this point, but he's showing in Triple A this year that he has the ability to help a major league team. He's played all three outfield spots for the IronPigs, managed a .283/.345/.497 line, and still shows the ability to hit southpaws (.333/.383/.500 against them on the year, .283/.355/.495 in his minor league career). It's a shame that Mayberry doesn't have the ability to fake it defensively at third base a la Greg Dobbs, because with the way the bench is producing, it could use a jolt. Unfortunately, Dobbs isn't going anywhere anytime soon precisely because he can man third in a pinch. Sorry, Junior Mayberry, but the Phils will have to look elsewhere for a slump-buster.

Freddy Galvis, SS-S, Reading: The good news is that the switch-hitting shortstop posted a 9-for-24 week that included a double, a walk, and a pair of stolen bases. The bad news is that the mini hot streak only raised his season line (through 191 PA) to .225/.265/.253. Sure, he's 20 and in Double A, but we're talking about a guy with a career OPS of .556 in pro ball; I mean, even the much maligned Abraham Nunez has a career .675 OPS in the minor leagues. We can always hope that Galvis will make a quantum leap as a hitter, but it's probably not worth holding our collective breath at this point.

Mike Stutes, RHP, Reading: Stutes wasn't exactly fantastic in Reading's rotation last year, but the fact that he was double-jumped there didn't help matters, and the scouting reports on him seemed generally positive, so I thought he had a chance to take off if he was shifted to the bullpen (which I noted in my offseason prospect rankings). Stutes did manage to whiff 2 in 2.1 scoreless innings the past week, but the early returns on his career as a reliever have been underwhelming, to say the least: 7.5 K/9, 6.2 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, 42.5% GB, 4.07 FIP. Simply put, the 24-year old needs to trust his stuff and start throwing strikes before he slips off the prospect radar completely.

Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Lakewood: Rodriguez was an 8th round pick of the Phillies back in 2008 out of a Puerto Rican high school, and the organization has brought him along slowly. Still just 19, the righthander appears to be on the Trevor May plan, as he joined up with the BlueClaws last week and delivered a solid outings on Wednesday (3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 6 K) and Sunday (5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 6 K). It's way too early to draw any conclusions, but the 12 strikeouts in 8.2 innings is a good sign, as is Rodriguez's ground ball rate, which is at 55.6% in the early going (after sitting at just 37.8% in the GCL last year).

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After looking at some mock drafts, I’ve decided I want the Phillies to take:

  • Asher Wojciechowski, because I like the name Wojciechowski
  • Yordy Cabrera, because I like the name Yordy, or
  • Kaleb Cowart, so we can have a Cowart and a Cosart in the same rotation someday
  • Otherwise, who the heck knows.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 9:37 AM EDT reply actions  

    I’m planning some sort of write up for next Monday morning before the draft to go over a couple of names, but if we’re being honest here, it’s going to be really hard to pinpoint what the organization is planning to do. Knowing Wolever’s preferences, Cabrera is a distinct possibility, and we’ve also heard names like Austin Wilson (prep outfielder from California) and Jesse Biddle (prep lefty from Germantown Academy).

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Biddle? From Philadelphia? And a preppie? Could he be from the Biddle family?

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

    I went to school with a few Biddles, not at GA though.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Look at this aristocrat we’ve got here.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Public school, in Philly. They must have been written out of the inheritance or something.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

    How bourgeois.

    "I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez

    by Jose and the Contrarians on Jun 1, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

    “Down with the bourgeoisie!”

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I went to school with Jesse’s older brother (at Germantown Friends School, not GA). I’m pretty sure Jesse is the only draftable baseball player GFS has ever produced.

    by ThinMountainAir on Jun 1, 2010 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

    Whoops, my mistake. I saw Germantown and just assumed Academy.

    And a quick search on Baseball Cube leads me to believe that you’re correct in that assessment.

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

    They did produce Alvin Williams of Toronto Raptors fame though. Or was that Germantown Academy?

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Nope, Germantown Academy (clicky).

    A very reliable source tells me that Germantown Friends School has a K-12 enrollment of 845, so it’s not exactly a huge school. Then again, Friends Central isn’t that big either, and has managed to produce Hakim Warrick and Mustafa Shakur in recent years, though I’m thinking that probably has something to do with geographic location.

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Cool. My sister goes to school right across the street from GFS. Unlike GA, GFS is actually IN Germantown.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Johari Smith (J-Roll’s wife) went to Germantown Friends (HT: Google)

    Honor is no substitute for victory.

    by The Dark on Jun 1, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Johari Smith (J-Roll’s wife) went to Germantown Friends

    As did G. Love, of G. Love and Special Sauce fame.

    Ever since Biddle emerged as a legit prospect, GFS has been cramming their promotional literature full of mentions of him. I believe that they are doing this in an effort to make it appear that their athletic department is not a total joke. But they lie, for it is!

    Unlike GA, GFS is actually IN Germantown.

    GFS administrators sure do love to remind people of this fact.

    by ThinMountainAir on Jun 1, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Of course, why wouldn’t they? The neighborhood looks just like this, right?

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

    This week’s Phillies’ clubhouse has a feature on Biddle.

    "Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

    by doubleh on Jun 1, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Asher Wojciechowski…Yid or Polack? The world may never know…

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Don’t forget Kolbrin Vitek on your list of awesome names.

    I need to check these lists much earlier from now on – AJ Cole plays at Oviedo, which is about 5 miles up the road from where I live, and I’ve never seen him play.

    Honor is no substitute for victory.

    by The Dark on Jun 1, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

    Good one. “Yasmani Grandal” and “Stetson Allie” aren’t too bad either.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Yea, I want Yordy Cabrera in the 1st round but he’s committed to the Miami Hurricanes. The system could use some depth at SS. His dad, Basilio Cabrera is a coach for the Gulf Coast Tigers minor league team.
    I didn’t quite understand the Lee trade to replenish the system, when they got an outfielder & pitchers that they already have plenty of. Should’ve gotten an infielder like Liddi in that deal with Seattle.

    by DannyO on Jun 1, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Everytime I hear the name Yordy, I think of this guy:

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I’m slightly intrigued by Chance Ruffin (that name should sound familiar to longtime Phillies fans), but I hate the idea of drafting a College Closer in the 1st round.

    by Cormican on Jun 1, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Other than Gose and Singleton this is a pretty big downer week for the Prospect roundup. I look forward to the draft writeup though like every pro draft, once you get past the first pick it’s a full on crapshoot.

    by Cormican on Jun 1, 2010 12:18 PM EDT reply actions  

    Looking back at it, this week’s piece did have kind of a negative slant to it. Sorry, folks. The good news is that there will be plenty of new blood to write about once the short season leagues start up in a couple of weeks.

    With respect to some of the individual players mentioned above, I’m planning to put up a piece on Friday addressing some of the rumors swirling around the Phils’ first round pick and highlighting some other potential selections. And I’ll be more than happy to give my opinion* on any players I don’t mention in the comments if anyone asks.

    *Disclaimer: I’m certainly no draft expert, so my opinion is basically just cobbling together what some of the more trusted sources out there have written (along with any available video), and assessing that in conjunction with my personal preferences for players.

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

    At this point, I can’t tell you anything that Singleton’s season numbers don’t…

    But Kevin Goldstein can tell you something beyond the numbers. From today’s Minor League Update

    …he’s the talk of the Sally League and scouts are raving.

    Get excited, people.

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 2:06 PM EDT reply actions  

    I overshot excited about 2 weeks ago. He’s probably 3 or 4 years from the Majors, but this is a great start and his peripherals support it being legit and not D’Arby Myers like luck. He’s my favorite Boyz .n the Wood right now (cheesy, but I couldn’t resist).

    by Cormican on Jun 1, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Replacement for Ryan Howard when he’s a .230/.300/.440 hitter in 3 years?

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

    You gon’ get THOME’d!!

    http://www.thegoodphight.com

    by WholeCamels on Jun 1, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

    In that case, Ryan Howard will be traded to an American League team for a “gritty” center fielder (read: cracker) who will be wildly overrated by the Philadelphia fans. The more talented and productive player, of course, will actually roam right field but will be constantly derided for “padding his doubles” and not being willing to run headfirst into walls despite being a genuine five tool player and having an OPS of around .900 (Brown). Said player will be traded to the New York Yankees for less than New York itself was traded to Peter Minuit by the Lenape Indians in 1626. Howard, meanwhile, will go on to have several productive years as a DH while we reap the benefits of a younger, cost-controlled option. IT COULD HAPPEN.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

    P.S. The aforementioned “gritty” center fielder will also be known for throwing excellent barbecues.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Crackers have to be Southern, don’t they? Rowand is from Oregon. No doubt he’s extremely white, but I’m not sure that’s the precise terminology.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

    True. We’ll have to go with honkey then.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Will we also get a good lefthanded pitching prospect and then flip him for a high-mileage starting pitcher without conducting a physical, who will promptly break down and never pitch for us again? Because that would be awesome.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Actually, can we please just make “Eckstein” a racial slur?

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

    Did you know that Eckstein isn’t Jewish? I don’t think I’d ever thought of it before today, but it turns out that he is not.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I actually did know that. My aunt had this coffee table book about Jewish athletes and I do recall that he wasn’t in there. Plus, he looks too much like a Hitler Youth posterboy to be one of us.

    “Eckstein” as a racial slur should apply to white people who try really hard (or look like they are trying really hard because…well…they just suck) and are universally revered despite actually lacking any semblance of skill or talent (compared to others in the field).

    Ex. Elvis Presley? That guy was the biggest fucking Eckstein in the history of music. Plus, he stole his style from the black man!

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Eckstein is indeed rather blond. On the other hand, I guess Barbara Streisand is too. But the gestalt is different, no doubt.

    Also. to tie this in with the conversation below:
    http://www.jewornotjew.com/profile.jsp?ID=396

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

    i am bookmarking that site

    I fed a fish to a pelican and Frisco bay and he tried to eat my cell phone he ran away

    by TradeAndruw on Jun 1, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Sounds like a website John Stewart might run. He used to do that in his standup.

    "Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

    by doubleh on Jun 1, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Or Adam Sandler, after his three parts of The Chanukah Song

    Honor is no substitute for victory.

    by The Dark on Jun 2, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

    A .210 ISO for Howard in 3 years is probably the most optimistic thing I’ve seen from you in the past 2 weeks, FM (seeing as our favorite $125 million singles hitter sports a sweetass .163 ISO right now)!

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

    Well, to be fair his career number is .297, and he can’t possibly post a .163 all season, can he? So for now I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say that his decline will be somewhat gentler than that.

    by FuquaManuel on Jun 1, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

    I was kind of kidding, but of course you’re right.

    Still, it did seem like Howard had an increased focus on contact heading into the year, and that’s not a good thing. The 4.0% drop in K rate from last year isn’t nearly worth the .129 point drop in ISO, especially when coupled with a 3.0% decline in BB rate.

    It’s one thing for Howard to change his approach a bit with two strikes and, say, a runner on third and less than two outs; but it’s quite another to put contact first and foremost when you’re the kind of hitter Ryan Howard is. I just hope it’s a small sample size fluke and not indicative of an actual change in approach.

    by PhillyFriar on Jun 1, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

    The good news is that Howard’s now starting to both walk and strike out at rates closer to his career norms. In his last 16 games (68 PA), he has 9 BB and 18 K.

    Only problem is, he still isn’t hitting the ball out of the ballpark (2 HR in that stretch with 0 2B and 0 3B). But hopefully that’ll come with time.

    by taco pal on Jun 1, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

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