Rollins off DL; Ruiz on DL; Dobbs DFA'd; Zagurski up
Per Zolecki. While there's plenty of good news here, consider that we now have both Juan Castro and Wilson Valdez on the bench, along with Dane Sardinha. Chooch, get well soon. Also, Scott Mathieson is safely relegated back to triple-A. Otherwise, I have this weird feeling that Dobbs will sign with the Marlins and ruin some afternoons and evenings for us.
almost 2 years ago
dajafi
64 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
You had me at Dobbs DFA’d….
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
Interesting that the last spots on the Phillies bench have been riddled with ineffectiveness the last two seasons. Stairs, Bruntlett, Cairo, Castro, Dobbs. Valdez not too special either. Sometimes the common thread to a team’s bench’s ineffectiveness is more than just bad luck.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Although, to be fair, aren’t the last spots on benches almost by definition ineffective?
by David S. Cohen on Jun 22, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
True. In a meta-analysis we are talking about outs and their conservation (offensively) or production (defensively/pitching). When the regulars slump they tend to gum up the works more fiercely. Valdez does get an honorable mention for the GIDP.
The unintended consequence was Rollins gone for two months rather than one. You have to catch some lucky lightning in a bottle to survive that.
The bench’s construction this off-season seemed to want to go for consistency rather than defined role (Stairs as the Power Hitter, etc.), but the Phillies got a wretched sameness. Oh, and not much speed to speak of either.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it even fair to include Dobbs on that list? Dobbs 2010 yes. But Dobbs was here for about 3 1/3 years, and he was an effective hitter for 2 2/3 of those years, including most of 2009.
Dobbs, maybe not. It’s fair for bench guys to complain about the difficulty of their situation given they don’t play much. It’s fair to ask why 2007 and 2008 worked well for him while the last two didn’t. Last year we discovered he was hurt most of the time. Well, who made the decision to keep around a player who couldn’t perform adequately?
Albeit small sample, how much more of 2010 do you need? 73 PAs is not many, but even 30 will give you a somewhat accurate snapshot. Dobbs’ downfall was that many of his failures this year a) came after a decent spring in which he pronounced himself ready to go; and b) came in some very visible spots.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s fair. To clarify, I am fine with the decision to cut him. It’s reasonable. But I also didn’t think that that not cutting him would have been the height of idiocy or anything like that.
Oh, agree. I thought Castro was the move here, and he may still be for all I can tell. In a more perfect world, Dobbs is hitting his weight, has more than 1 measly HR, and keeps himself out of the discussion. I’d even prefer to have Dobbs around now, as he gives more positional versatility. But you just couldn’t ignore the stinkiness, and Gload also covers some of the same positions.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s making a joke about his own name.
That said, I do wonder if JC is a bit of an outlier with respect to peripherals. He seems to outperform his peripherals every single year. And it isn’t all explainable by the inherited runner issue.
Ahhhh, good point. Sorry, Romero (the poster, not the pitcher).
His BABIPs have been astronomically low over the past few years, that’s for sure. But even if he is a bit of an outlier with respect of peripherals, there’s no way a difference of nearly 3.00 between ERA and xFIP is holding up over the long haul.
Oh, definitely. I don’t think he’s genuinely a 2.xx ERA pitcher. Probably somewhere in between. I also don’t know that Zagurski will be more effective than him.
Valdez and Castro means we have officially crossed the border into the Land of Unintended Consequences.
Are you going to tell me that keeping Castro and Valdez is worse than one of them plus Dobbs? I think that the Phillies were smart enough to get rid of their weakest link.
Do you really think Dobbs is the weakest link? I think we have more important players that have been actively hurting us like Blanton, Baez, LOOGY, etc. than Dobbs.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Romero’s numbers would indicate that he hasn’t really hurt us. But I do agree with everyone else you listed. Especially that pay check stealing hack Baez.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yep, I’m going to tell you that. It’s tinkering around the edges, perhaps, and I you can’t ignore the stank Dobbs was putting out, but having both Castro and Valdez is needless redundancy. Still, I believe this is temporary. One or the other will be gone by the ASB if Rollins stays healthy.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking the same. Does this open a door for Mayberry? Don’t see many other AAA bats in the system any better than Exxon.
Possibly, they need power or speed, so Mayberry provides a bit of both. My hunch is that the Phillies mean to string him along as far as they can in Lehigh Valley for his own development rather than allow him to languish on the bench.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we spend way too much time worrying about the bench. The bench isn’t unimportant, but comparatively speaking, it doesn’t matter that much. The reason why we’ve slumped is because a lot of our starters have played like crap. Cutting Dobbs won’t help us that much. His bad performance before today didn’t hurt us that much.
I will agree with you on that. However, if I have to see a bench player at third, I would rather see Castro than him. And considering his hitting ineptitude of recent, I would rather see almost anyone swing a bat. I will agree with you that Dobbs has not singlehandedly cost us any game, but the fact is, he is the weakest link… good-bye!
I think Dobbs has pick-em odds of going back to a .7xx OPS hitter if he gets a change of scenery. The guy has about 75 plate appearances this year.
I don’t care one way of the other about his DFA’ing, but to place anything more than a small amount of blame on him for our problems this year does not make sense.
Baez also has a fair chance to be a non-terrible relief pitcher the rest of the way. He’s been terrible this year, but he’s been competent most of his career. The problem with Baez is his contract. But just because he’s been terrible for the grand total of 28 innings that most of us have ever seen him pitch doesn’t mean he’s a terrible pitcher. He isn’t.
I think you’re probably right, but the fact that Dobbs provides no defensive value whatsoever, and hasn’t hit since 2008, means that he served no real purpose on this roster. We can project the starters to rebound — with Dobbs, there’s not really a big enough performance record for me to feel confident in any such projection.
He kept getting stuck at third when I thought there were times he could have played first more.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Incidentally...
Castro has to be the next to go, as dajafi hints at by pointing out that we’re now rostering both Castro and Valdez. Valdez has proven his worth as the utility infielder, if for nothing else than he’s a far superior fielder to Castro — though, to be honest, his .250/.263/.379 looks positively Bonds-esque in comparison to Castro’s .222/.246/.269.
If Amaro’s convinced that he doesn’t need to make a major move for this team, then he should be spending every waking minute looking to replace Dobbs with a better, right handed version. Edwin Encarnacion just hit waivers, and Ty Wigginton looks like a trade chip — go ahead and start there, and see what the Jays and O’s are willing to chip in as far as salary goes.
Not to mention Valdez’ sudden power surge.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
counterpoint: 2 HRs from Valdez is likely all you’ll get from him this season. Dobbs has only hit 1 so far in 2010 but averaged 8 over the past 3 seasons.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I was being sarcastic. I don’t expect much from Valdez in the power department. Not like either of his homers were sure things.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
ok, not necessarily directed at you. There’s something to those HRs that makes me suspect they kept Valdez on the roster, though.
New thread on Dobbs, everyone.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember looking down at AtBat Saturday and about falling over from shock when Valdez and homerun were used in the same sentence. It felt like an oxymoron of sorts— like some sort of cosmic joke… I know that he is not a power hitter… I mean, those two homeruns were career homeruns 2 and 3. It is highly doubtful in my mind that lightning will strike again this eason… buit i do believe that he can be effective off the bench without a homerun— if he just gets on base, and avoids the evil GIDP monster, I will be fine with him.
Agree this is step 1 of 2 roster moves here. The caution is simply over Rollins’ calf. If he can make it 7-10 days with no problem, Castro goes.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 22, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Encarnacion
Edwin Encarnacion is interesting. Here’s his fangraphs page.
He has a .467 SLG in 141 ABs this year. Career SLG of 449.
His career OPS is 788. This season his OPS is 765 despite a ridiculous 167 BABIP.
And he’s listed as being 27 years old.
If I were Ruben, I’d look into this.
So would I, minus two issues:
Contract
Attitude issues that drove him out of Cincy and possibly Toronto.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I had been all for the Phillies take a flier on Elijah Dukes, who makes Pacman Jones look like a pleasant baby sitter option. Encarcion is tough because there’s more $$ involved. I was all for Dukes because you could stash him in Lehigh Valley on a Minor League contract and cut him loose if the crime rate skyrocketed in Allentown. It’s trickier with nearly $5M tied up in Encarcion as a bench player, much less flexibility.
I agree with you on Dukes…the guy is 25 and people are ready to give up on him? I would give him a chance but it’s not my money.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Re: Encarnacion, the Phillies clearly aren’t taking out his full salary, and I can’t see any team doing that. But maybe the Blue Jays agree to eat 80% of his remaining salary to get a decent piece back, in which case the Phils should be interested (depending on the prospect cost).
Re: Dukes, I’m all for taking a flier on him, but it won’t be this year— last I heard was that he had an agreement to play for a Japanese team and never showed up, and word was that he’d be taking the entire 2010 season off. But whatever his issues, Amaro should certainly do his due diligence when Dukes reemerges, because talent like that isn’t often available to be scooped up at no charge.
I hate the lack of context on the internet. I’m not sure whether I should say thanks or drop my gloves and start skating in slow circles around you. I suddenly feel like Joe Pesci in Goodfellas.
If we pick up Dukes, I’m all for hiring Roberto Duran as a locker-room guy responsible for towels and dispute resolution.
by Derekcarstairs on Jun 23, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
No, its not. However, I was more surprised that it took this long for him to be DL’ed than anything else— the hit he took to the head looked bad, and I have heard varying word as to whether he is concussed or merely suffering concussion like symptoms. Either way, it is no joke, and I am glad that the Phillies are taking it seriously. I hope that when they reactivate him, he is healthy, and able to play well.
Ruiz’s injury is bringing to the front of my mind something that Halladay said following his perfect game— he gave the credit for the game to Ruiz. It made me wonder at the time, whether who is catching the game has an impact on pitcher performance. I know it has an impact on caught stealing, but I have been wondering how big the effect is on the pitching (strike outs, walks, hits, etc.). I know that the sample sizes are probably too small for the most part to be statistically significant, but I was wondering if anybody has ever looked at how this factor affects pitching quality.
I think its been fairly well-studied. There is a stat called catcher ERA, I think. I don’t know how useful it actually is.
by FuquaManuel on Jun 22, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I googled Catcher ERA and found a number of articles that suggested that catcher ERA was a statistic with too much variation to be trusted. This was somewhat surprising to me, as I actually expected there to be a statistical difference. I still hope that Ruiz recovers from his injury quickly and that he returns after the fifteen day stint is done healthy and ready to play… The stats may not back the idea up, bur I still believe that Ruiz being there makes a difference.
by dannijd on Jun 22, 2010 11:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
There are a couple of problems with CERA that make it unreliable. First is that backup catchers don’t usually accumulate enough innings behind the plate to make up a significant sample. Second is that for various reasons, the backup catcher may have a significantly different distribution of innings between the various pitchers than the starter (think of Doug Mirabelli always catching Tim Wakefield in Boston, or whoever Greg Maddux’s personal catcher was) which can make a huge difference on CERA.
Occasionally there are backup catchers who stay with one team long enough, and catch the whole staff enough, to actually make meaningful comparisons. If I remember correctly Todd Pratt was one such in his time in Philadelphia, and he was pretty consistently better than Mike Lieberthal in that respect.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
