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Around SBN: UFC 146 Predictions

You're all getting your wish

It says something about the state of bench when you need to subtract a guy to make it better, but Greg Dobbs has quickly turned from Mr. Dependable into Mr. Expendable. It's a sad result as Dobbs was such an integral component to the postseason-bound teams of 2007 and '08. Before I fully understood the dynamics of the situation, I was actually surprised when Jayson Werth started getting more playing time in the latter half of '08 than Dobbs, who was a better hitter. That is clearly not the case anymore.

The team is presently not making any headway with closing the gap in the division. The All-Star Break and the Trade Deadline are quickly approaching, so other major personnel changes may take place if the Phillies remain on their present course of mediocrity.

Raul Ibanez, take this as your final warning.

The 38-year-old Phillies left fielder hasn't been the player they expected him to be for a year now. He's not seeing the ball well, which was even a fact during last season as a whole when he posted the worst strikeout/at-bat (1/4.2) and ground out/fly out (1.27) ratios of his career.

Ibanez has only managed brief glimpses of his former self in 2010. The latest occurred earlier this month when he went 8-for-20 over five games against the Marlins and Red Sox, but he has returned to his usual output, hitting just 5-for-22 (.227) since. His overall batting average hasn't risen above .267 at any point this season, and his power is virtually non-existent.

I don't know how many more times I can hear Charlie Manuel say that Ibanez will work his way out of this funk. He just might, but we've been waiting for a full season now. Given a healthy number of at-bats, Ben Francisco could provide the Phillies with so much more at the plate and in the field. I'd give Ibanez another week or two at most, and then at the very least bench him for a few games. This lineup can't afford a black hole in the No. 6 spot any longer.

Treading over the same ground? Yeah, you're probably right, so who is the solution? I've said my peace, which so many of you consider inadequate so what shall the Phitins do about this Ibanez situation? They've said over and over that Dominic Brown is not an option, though he's being stifled in Triple A. I'll leave it to you stat geniuses and wordsmiths. I'm done; back to my writing job and private blog, places where my input his appreciated. You wonder why people hate us Phillie fans so much.

As for the team, tonight's win was good, and J-Roll's return was even better (0-for-4 or 4-for-4). Despite all the griping and negativity, the boys' ride through Interleague Play has turned out a little better than I feared. The toughest part of it is over, so it's time to finish strong. Good luck, fellas.

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Ibanez K rate with Philly:
2009-10: 23.8%
2010-11: 18.6%

Francisco K rate last 3 years:
2008-09: 19.2%
2009-10: 20.5%
2010-11: 22.4%

I went back three years with Francisco to get two good sample sizes. He’s only had 67 at-bats this year, which isn’t enough for me to be happy calling his numbers solid, but he had 405 two years ago and 308 last year.

OPS, Ibanez, last three years:
2008-09: .837 (.358/.479)
2009-10: .899 (.347/.552)
2010-11: .738 (.338/.400)

OPS, Francisco, last three years:
2008-09: .770 (.332/.438)
2009-10: .779 (.332/.447)
2010-11: .577 (.293/.284)

In no year has Francisco’s OPS or either component of his OPS equalled Ibanez’s stats. With more consistent playing time, it may be possible that his numbers will improve, but I don’t see anything to suggest he will be superior to Ibanez at the plate.

You’re perfectly free to ignore this, of course, since your passive-aggressive bullshit makes it clear that you don’t like the “geniuses” that look at the game through statistics rather than gut instinct and respect for unmeasurable “grittiness.” Please, go back to where they’ll pay for your writing; I don’t want to read any more of the drek you pump out when you’re not being paid.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 23, 2010 8:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Dobbs was never a better hitter than Werth. In the first half of 2008, which was Dobbs’ best half-season ever, Werth had a higher OPS due to hitting for significantly more power. Dobbs’ batting average was much higher, but that was largely singles-driven.

by phatj on Jun 23, 2010 8:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Schadenfreude

I love factual, spelling and grammatical mistakes from self-proclaimed “award-winning” journalists.

Dominic (sic) Brown is not in Triple-A (spelled with a hyphen, by the way).

by phatj on Jun 23, 2010 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

places where my input his appreciated.

Him tacking may ball and going homer!

by Cormican on Jun 23, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, I love how this post starts like any of your other posts here (read: badly) then turns into an attack:

I’ll leave it to you stat geniuses and wordsmiths. I’m done; back to my writing job and private blog, places where my input his appreciated. You wonder why people hate us Phillie fans so much.

Look man, we are nothing like your typical Phillies fans. Why? Because we value logic and reason here — things you have demonstrated you lack. So please, be our guest and go back where your “input is appreciated” and continue to live in denial of the fact that your writing sucks and that you know nothing about baseball.

by FuquaManuel on Jun 23, 2010 9:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Preach!

Look, Adrian: it’s nice that you’re an award-winning sportswriter and all, but we just don’t like your writing that much. Sorry. Being a professional writer does not mean that we are obligated to like what you write or give it more weight than other writing on this site.

Please understand that one of the main reasons why people read this site is because it is a meritocracy. If your writing is good, then we will like it. If your writing is not good, then we will not like it. Who you are and what you do for a living doesn’t matter very much. That’s one of the great things about the Internet in general, and it’s something that lots of sportswriters don’t seem to understand.

by ThinMountainAir on Jun 23, 2010 10:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

We have seen the future, albeit from our mothers’ basements.

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 23, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Being a professional writer does not mean that we are obligated to like what you write or give it more weight than other writing on this site.

Heck, Conlin’s a professional writer. Getting paid to write isn’t proof of qualification to write. Personally, I’m inclined to be tougher on a professional writer. If it’s your job, you should be good at it. I think the biggest issue here was that the author didn’t know his audience. The pieces I’ve read seem to be aimed at the general public, and to be more “puff pieces” (which is not necessarily a bad thing – we do them here for amusement from time to time). The audience at this site is heavily stats-savvy and evidence-based; the writing style used did not match the intended audience, and the author did not appear to understand that to be a factor in the criticism received.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 23, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have this theory that if EVERYONE likes you, you’re obviously doing something wrong…

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m pretty sure Conlin feels that way too.

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 23, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you meant “ANYONE”

by phatj on Jun 23, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can always count on you or TP to chime in

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

C’mon, that was actually pretty funny.

by FuquaManuel on Jun 23, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Low Hanging Fruit :)

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

How izzit the team is making no headway in closing the gap in the division when they picked up a game last night and had their leadoff hitter return (albeit at the expense of their starting catcher)?

We’ve established on this site before that Ibanez is a notoriously streaky™ hitter. And if I were him, I’d press a little bit too knowing that hitters like Valdez and Castro were behind me. For two months. It’ll be interesting to see the effect having Victorino behind him will have. Last night, anyways, he was 1 for 3, in front of Victorino, who walked. The sinkhole is now the 8-hole (Schneider).

So far, it’s been hard to evaluate the 2010 Phillies because they haven’t had their roster intact for a single game all season, other than that the team has had many injuries. (Blanton/Happ/Rollins/Ruiz/Lidge/Madson)

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 23, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions  

See, I read the title and thought I was getting my wish, but alas this was not a rant about why you wouldn’t write anything here any more, so no I didn’t get my wish.

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 10:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, a self-absorbed, typo-laden rant about how we’re all basement-dwelling nerds who can’t recognize true genius would have been more fun. But he did say he would go elsewhere. I guess we’ll have to take what we can get.

by ThinMountainAir on Jun 23, 2010 11:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Sigh, I don’t have a basement

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

aha! So that’s the problem. :)

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 23, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Some would say one of them (many)

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

which is another thing. The headline had little to do with the content. +2 pts for proper usage of you’re/your. I’ll grant that much.

We all wanted Dobbs to go? Untrue.
We all want to “send a message” to Ibanez? No.

Adrian, the Dark pretty well has it. There are people on the site who are welcoming and will engage you if you do some reading and genuinely challenge the assertions you want to put out there. There are others who really enjoy going after your ideas. So be prepared to defend, learn something (or both!), have a thick skin, and for God’s sake don’t take it personal son, life ain’t no how permanent.

Playfulness and creativity are also welcome; after all, it’s a game. But the content of your posts so far can be found on other sites the regulars here have generally drifted away from over the years, or tend to yell at our car radios if we hear them on WIP.

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 23, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

TGP might be able to use a “culture of” sticky somewhere. I realize that it might not help in all cases. Those who could benefit from it would not be likely (1) to read it or (2) to give a damn. Still, maybe some small few would heed the warning. In any case, it seems that fair warning might be useful before unleashing total thermonuclear snark upon someone new.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 23, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

unleashing total thermonuclear snark upon someone new.

So you want to take away the fun?

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nah, we just want them to be aware of the potential for thermonuclear snark. If they know it’s coming, they’re more likely to survive and be a target for future snark.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 23, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

In my experience, those who are most worthy of said snark won’t believe the ‘guidelines’ laid out could possibly apply to them

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah. For the record, I vote for leaving this guy alone. If thermonuclear snark has a purpose, it’s to bring low the mighty. This is basically just a regular guy on the street (journalism awards or no). Unleashing the artillery against someone like this doesn’t feel completely right to me.

by taco pal on Jun 23, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

I vote for the gulag.

by FuquaManuel on Jun 23, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

And here I thought thermonuclear snark was allowed to have more than one purpose, like demosntrating to someone that they were completely and totally off their nut and need to rethink their entire world view

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Snark. What is this word? I do not know snark.

by FuquaManuel on Jun 23, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Let’s play Global Thermo Nuclear Snark

It’s much better than tic tac toe

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Global thermonuclear snark – responsible for our glowing reviews since 2005

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jun 23, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

postscript

I actually know this guy.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 23, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

So if i report you to the government wil they give me a rewardz?

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m actually afraid he’d use it on me so I’d turn state’s witness quicker than shit

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 23, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow. I nearly fell for that. I’m really credulous today in my post-Sunshine Superman glow.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 23, 2010 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, that is not one of its purposes. It is not an effective means of achieving that goal.

by taco pal on Jun 23, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve found it quite effective in the past – it helps me achieve my goals usually

by jemagee on Jun 23, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many people have reevaluated their world view after you snarked ’em?

by phatj on Jun 23, 2010 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Acceptance

You have all made valid points and criticisms, and my resorting to delusions of writing excellence in the realm of baseball was petty and insulting, and I apologize for pretending that I was better than all of you. It’s not a mistake I intend to make again any time soon. You gave reasons for why my writing wasn’t adequate, and rather than take it like a man and try to improve my approach, I bitched and moaned and made myself look pathetic. Baseball is by far my favorite sport, but it’s clear I need to become more of an astute and analytical observer of it before I decide to cross into this medium and join your respectful ranks. Thank you for opening my eyes. Happy posting and as always, go Phils!

by Adrian Martin on Jun 24, 2010 8:32 AM EDT reply actions  

Three cheers for global nuclear snark

by jemagee on Jun 24, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Wow. Passive-aggressive much?

by FuquaManuel on Jun 24, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m actually not sure. That might be intended to be sincere.

by taco pal on Jun 24, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s ambiguous, but I lean towards FM’s interpretation. That’s too complete a capitulation to be sincere.

by phatj on Jun 24, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m with TP on this. No that it matters, it’s just the interwebs.

by Cormican on Jun 26, 2010 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 24, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

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