Make Way for Dom: Brown Promoted to AAA
by dajafi on Jun 25, 2010 10:49 AM EDT
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PrintAt the very least, we won't have to read anymore that top Phillies prospect Domonic Brown has never played a game above double-A. This weekend, the 22 year-old outfielder will leave the Reading Phillies for the last stop on the minor-league ladder, joining the Lehigh Valley IronPigs of the triple-A International League.
Brown has nothing left to prove in Reading after putting up a .318./.391/.602 line in 265 plate appearances. The Phillies sent Brown to Reading this spring with a limited but important to-do list: show more power and improve on defense. On the power front, Brown has already set a career high with 15 home runs in 236 at-bats, topping the 14 he hit in 395 at-bats between Clearwater and Reading in 2009. And reports are that his positioning and routes to fly balls have caught up to his howitzer arm in the field. A look at Brown's splits offers further evidence of his consistent excellence through the first three months of the 2010 season.
So what happens now? I always thought that Brown was likely to get a September callup, either to strengthen the team's bench for the stretch run or get some playing time if their playoff hopes had faded by then, and to get acclimated to major-league life under either scenario. That seems even more likely now, barring injury. Is there a chance we might see Brown before then, and in a larger role? An injury to any of the Phils' outfield regulars could get him to Philadelphia, but that remains the most likely scenario. While Raul Ibanez hasn't looked like the Eater-of-Worlds all-star we fondly recall from early 2009, he's not a total black hole in the lineup either, and there's at least some reason to hope his best 2010 work is yet to come. Still, the presence of a five-tool performer at the next level down and just a short ride on the turnpike away will be in the minds of the team's decision-makers as well as the guys in uniform.
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I will pay his tolls
and $20 for gazzzzzzzzzz.
Let’s see the Dominator in CBP in September at the latest.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
Interesting.
I wouldn’t mind seeing him up a couple of weeks before September 1. But no more than that. The earlier you bring him up, the more at-bats and development time you cost him. (After September 1, it doesn’t matter, since that’s when the minor league season ends.)
Plate appearances he gets at the expense of Ross Gload may help the team a substantial amount this year, but plate appearances he gets at the expense of Ibanez will not help the team very much. If he only gets the former, he will lose a lot of playing time, and if he gets the latter, you don’t reap any present-day benefit.
What’s more, any significant playing time he gets in the majors will be in the middle of a pennant-race pressure cooker. He won’t be able to work on things and improve. That might be worth it if he actually presented a big on-field improvement today, but he doesn’t.
So, if he does well in AAA, I would be OK with bringing him up to be a bench player, but no earlier than August 15 or 20.
I think you only bring him before Sept. 1 if you conclude he should be on the playoff roster, coming off the bench. And even in that scenario, you recall him on August 30 or so.
(Of course, given how loosely the roster rules are enforced, they probably can do the thing where someone we’ve never heard of is on the 60-day DL, “placed on the playoff roster,” then replaced by Jon Singleton or something. So in the strictest sense, it’s probably not necessary to recall Brown in late August.)
Yeah, that’s a good point. If I recall correctly, David Price made his major league debut in mid-September 2008, then pitched against us in the World Series. Which he won singlehandedly, I think, or at least that’s what the media coverage at the time led me to believe.
Didn’t he make some sort of gaffe in the outfield during his two-homer game a few days ago? I guess that could have been an isolated incident though.
I don’t know about the gaffe you’re talking about, but when I saw Brown play in Reading I saw him make two bad plays on fly balls hit to him. One of them he just flat-out dropped and the other he seemed to take a really bad route on, like he didn’t see it.
It made me wonder about his night-vision, because he made a couple of stellar plays earlier in the game before the sun went down.
Do you think there is a chance the phillies move one of Ibanez/Werth if Brown looks ready before the trade deadline? I would hope for Ibanez because that would clear up cap space for next year and make the chance of signing Werth more realistic. Would anyone even take Ibanez?
If you trade Ibanez and end up not being able to re-sign Werth, then you could be screwed. That would not be a good idea.
Let Werth walk.
Possibility of trading him?
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 25, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, as long as we offer him arbitration first and he declines. Which we will and he will, notwithstanding the fact that Ruben is generally terrified of offering arbitration. But this is a case where it so obviously needs to be done that even he will do it.
If the team that signs Werth was in the upper half of MLB in 2010, we’ll get their first-round pick, plus a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. In the unlikely event that the team that signs Werth was in the lower half of MLB in 2010, we’ll get their second-rounder plus the sandwich.
SANDWICH OM NOM NOM NOM
(sorry, I’ll let myself out…)
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jun 25, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Other Prospect News...
First round pick Jesse Biddle made his debut for the GCL Phillies this afternoon: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 2:4 GO:AO.
Given the way the Phillies brought Werth and Vic along somewhat slowly with platoons, are we looking at a Brown/Mayberry platoon in Right to start 2011?
I doubt it. I wouldn’t say exactly that Werth and Victorino were brought along slowly, in the sense that neither one of them were top prospects for us. Werth hadn’t yet recovered from his injury and was generally seen as being a backup. Victorino was also seen as a bench player, and only started to get broken in at all because of (if I recall) Aaron Rowand’s injury from crashing into the fence.
Can the Phillies afford to wait until next June?
I think one of the reasons for the success the Phillies have had recently is that they developed Howard and Utley slowly. That way, when they got to the big leagues, they were old enough that the Phillies had cost-certainty over those two through their peak years, not just right up to the peak years.
Can the Phillies afford to wait until next June so they can have the same for Brown (i.e., not get him among the super-2s eligible for early arbitration)?
I know this is just semantics, but I don’t think he’d technically ever be a super-two if he started his career on Opening Day. He’d just be a three, but one year earlier. He’d be a super-two if he debuted in May.
And how does service time get calculated for becoming a free agent? If he’s brought up mid-way through next year, is he a free agent after 5.5 years or 6.5 years in the majors?
by David S. Cohen on Jun 25, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the super-two stuff does apply. Maybe it goes like this: you get to be arbitration eligible after 3 years on the MLB roster or if you’re a super-2. You then get 3 years or arbitration, then free agency. So, you could have free agency after anywhere from 6.66 years in the majors to 5.67 years in the majors.
Maybe?
by David S. Cohen on Jun 25, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Possibly. I have a vague recollection that someone (PF? WC?) explained to me that although we bought out three arbitration years for Hamels, who was a super-two, we still have a fourth arbitration year with him after his contract ends because the arbitration rules and the free agency rules are a little different. But what you said might be consistent with that – I’m not sure.
Nope, I was wrong
It’s six or more years of MLB service to be a free agent: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/info/faq.jsp#agency
So, if the Phillies don’t need him, this would counsel against bringing Brown up this year and waiting until day 2 of next year, right? I understand – this is a purely team and financial way to look at things, and may not be what’s best for Brown’s individual development.
by David S. Cohen on Jun 25, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
A Year of Service under the CBA is 172 days of major league service during a season, excluding playoffs, but including time on the DL and time serving a suspension. The 172 days of service can be accumulated over two or more seasons, but a player cannot get credit for more than 172 days of service in a single season.
If Brown is brought up in May, he won’t accumulate 172 days of service in that season. Assuming he stays in the majors thereafter, Brown would not become a free agent until after the 2017 season. If Brown is brought up this year, he would become a free agent after the 2016 season unless they send him back to the minors at the start of the 2011 season and keep him there long enough so that he doesn’t accumulate 172 days of service in the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined.
by Derekcarstairs on Jun 25, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
David Bell and Jim Thome sort of enforced them ‘developing slowly’ – they were ready earlier than they were insterted into the line up full time for reasons (to me) that had more to do with Thome playing with his bad back and some sort of weird loyalty to david bell
by jemagee on Jun 25, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely
I’m not saying this was a thought-out plan by the Phillies, but they executed it well regardless of whether it was intentional.
by David S. Cohen on Jun 25, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The Thome/Bell thing is largely a WIP-perpetuated urban legend. It only really cost Utley and Howard about a half-season each, at most.
What really set Utley back was not loyalty to Bell, but the Phillies’ attempt to convert Utley into a third baseman in 2002 at AAA. It was a pretty hairbrained scheme, in retrospect. The defensive conversion didn’t take, and Utley had only had an OK year at the plate that year (which was probably related). In 2003, they moved him back to second base and he did much better at the plate, and got brought up to the majors toward the end of that year, just as you would expect.
In 2004, Utley only played half the year and Bell was probably responsible for that, but what most people forget is that Bell was actually good in 2004. Utley became a full-timer in 2005, which was the year Polanco was traded for Urbina.
What most people forget is that david bell was ‘half’ good in 2005…he was awesome against lefties and sucked against righties. (for a season OPS of under 700)
The point was that he was slowing the development of a guy who was part of the future and he wasn’t part of the future and he should have been sent packing once it was established that utley was ready to be an every day player – be it a full season or a half season
by jemagee on Jun 25, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Reading comprehension, please.
Utley became a full-timer in 2005, which was the year Polanco was traded for Urbina.
What most people forget is that david bell was ‘half’ good in 2005…
Utley got 628 plate appearances in 2005. How did the Phillies’ conduct toward Bell in 2005 slow down Utley’s development?
Same way he was good in 2005 with his 672 ops I suppose
by jemagee on Jun 25, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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