See, That Wasn't So Bad - Phillies 9, Reds 6
by David S. Cohen on Jun 29, 2010 11:38 PM EDT
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PrintA starting lineup that featured Greg Dobbs, Wilson Valdez, and Brian Schneider. A starting pitcher who has had major problems this year. Facing a first place team with a starting pitcher with an ERA under 3.00. Blowing a save by giving up a three-run home run in the bottom of the ninth. Their two key division rivals facing struggling sub-.500 teams.
And yet, there's a reason the games are played. Somehow, on the day Chase Utley and Placido Polanco join Carlos Ruiz on the DL, everything worked out great for the Phillies. Their offense came alive: Brian Schneider hit a three-run home run, Wilson Valdez had 4 RBI, and Raul Ibanez had a key 10th inning RBI that ignited a 3-run rally to put the Phils over the top following Brad Lidge's blown save. Joe Blanton pitched just well enough to keep the Phillies ahead, and J.C. Romero did what Lidge couldn't, nailing down the save in the bottom of the tenth.
And to top it off, the Mets and Braves lost.
Sometimes, even when storm clouds are bearing down on you, the sun prevails. Let's hope tomorrow brings more of the same.
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I'll try resisting the urge to say, "I told you so."
This was a hell of a game. Excellent performances by the bench, despite all the grief they’ve been given.
I think they’ve earned themselves some benefit of the doubt, eh?
The hell with it. I told you so. ;) And the chicken was damn good.
How weird is baseball? What a crazy game. I love it.
(P.S. Does the second paragraph look squashed to anyone else?)
good chatter tonight too. TP you were en fuego.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 30, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks man. A fun time was had by all, I hope. I had the Biff Tannen almanac checked out for one night. Too bad I’ll have to return it now.
Afternoon game tomorrow! Everyone reconvene at the appointed time.
Will be here beginning in the second or third— it’s my birthday, so lunch in the downstairs bar with the big flatscreens is a must! Hopefully there will be good baseball and good injury news (Phillies have said they will have a better idea of timetables for Polanco and Utley tomorrow) for my birthday— better than cake and presents.
by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 1:18 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Unfortunately, an afternoon game for all of you is an 8AM game for me.
Maybe I can sneak in at work.
Yes— I noticed the same thing with one of the paragraphs in the infield Armageddon post earlier as well.
by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 12:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
one question...
Should I be worried about brad lidge? Or is he still not all the way back yet? His first two outs looked impressive. I am just not sure what to think of him yet this year. Anyone have any thoughts?
He had a 2.65 xFIP coming into today, which is actually lower than his xFIP from 2008. I think what you see is what you get. He’s a closer who is OK most of the time but who has occasional spectacular meltdowns.
…and who should never be allowed to pitch to a left-handed, slider-destroying power hitter who represents the tying run.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Jun 30, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
come on...
there were 2 outs, what are the chances manuel pulls lidge and brings in romero to face votto? not likely, though maybe he should have
by PhilsForever on Jun 30, 2010 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Um, well, the problem is that he had a 1.93 ERA, then has blown 2 of his last 3 outings ballooning his ERA to 5.25 and calling his status into question. If he’s just regressing to the mean, fine, but I am more concerned that this is the new trend. The next 2 or 3 outings should be telling.
Two of the best nights of my life.,,,October 21, 1980 and October 29, 2008.
One of the weirdest...October 1, 1970. I kept part of one of the seats.
I was in college in Boston in 1974 and when Clarke scored the OT goal in game 2 I knew that the Flyers would win the Cup since they would never lose at home.
Fielding independent stats do not regress to the mean, they are the mean. The whole point of them is that they reflect what’s really going on. Lidge’s xFIP after last night is still only 2.90, which is still lower than what he posted in 2008. His problem is that his HR/FB rate is through the roof because of small sample size, which is clearly flukish. Regression to the mean for Lidge means his ERA goes down.
the problem with relievers IS their small sample size though. I don’t know how you can put more faith in his 8 good innings over his 3 disastrous ones, because either way, it’s only 11 IP (disclaimer…I don’t know how many IP Lidge has on the year…just guesstimates)
I don’t think you understand how xFIP (and similar stats) work. They weigh every at-bat equally, just as ERA does. The difference between xFIP and ERA has nothing to do with weighing some outings or at-bats more than others. The difference is that xFIP adjusts for luck-based stats: BABIP, HR/FB, LOB rate.
It’s perfectly fine to point to Lidge’s small sample size as a basis for saying we have no way to guess how good he’ll be this year, one way or the other. But it’s simply flat-out wrong and self-contradictory to say his sample size is too small and look at these 3 bad outings out of that small sample as if they might have any meaning distinct from that of his overall stats.
Perhaps I stated the original post inelegantly, or perhaps we have a slight disagreement (but then, I have a slightly atypical interpretation of the original Tversky and Kahnemann (1979) work, but that’s off-topic). My post wasn’t referring to FIP per se. But where we agree is that we have a small sample size for Lidge, and if these data points become any kind of trend, this stinks.
Two of the best nights of my life.,,,October 21, 1980 and October 29, 2008.
One of the weirdest...October 1, 1970. I kept part of one of the seats.
I was in college in Boston in 1974 and when Clarke scored the OT goal in game 2 I knew that the Flyers would win the Cup since they would never lose at home.
I understand how they work, but thanks.
I’m stating I don’t have faith (=blind trust) in saying that “he’s better this year vs last year” because one stat based on 12 innings pitched this year (vs the 58.67 he threw last year) says he’s better. I’m not saying that I know that he’s still bad, but the evidence presented to date isn’t convincing, regardless of the stat used because he just hasn’t pitched enough.
We’ve got some crap righthanders in our near future. Utley must be kicking himself for getting injured right before this stretch.
Your namesake (in bizarro ball/strike mode) was awesome tonight.
Two of the best nights of my life.,,,October 21, 1980 and October 29, 2008.
One of the weirdest...October 1, 1970. I kept part of one of the seats.
I was in college in Boston in 1974 and when Clarke scored the OT goal in game 2 I knew that the Flyers would win the Cup since they would never lose at home.
I honestly think bizarro ball strike mode (or at least a couple of the batters strongly believing in it) saved Romero’s bacon— I was AtBatting the game, and watching the pitchesto one of the batters he faced, realized that the batter had fouled off balls 1-4 under normal standards.
by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 1:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Although in some ways I thought it was very smart of Romero to keep going there— after all, that far inside is hard to hit hard, and if he can get him to swing, maybe he either strikes out (which was the case), or hits something weak and easilly fielded— and if you go to the well one too many times and he does not bite, it is only ball one, and you keep going.
It’s funny to joke about that, but I’m pretty confident that it only seems like we do worse against bad pitchers because those are the games against bad pitchers that we remember. Straightforward case of selection bias. We probably do better against bad pitchers than against good pitchers, just like the rest of the baseball-playing universe.
Sounds like a good topic for a post. I did something like this for new pitchers a while back, because there was an impression that the Phillies did poorly against new pitchers. That was wrong, of course. Just more selection bias. http://www.thegoodphight.com/2006/4/21/143642/626
by David S. Cohen on Jun 30, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, if we could just convince Lidge that the score is one or two runs closer than it actually is, I think we could win a lot of games by one or two runs.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Jun 30, 2010 12:41 AM EDT reply actions
I fixed the formatting.
Thanks to Mr. Cohen for stepping in recap-wise after I turned the game off in a fit of pique. Mostly I think I was angry because Lidge’s meltdown destroyed my storyline, and invalidated the title “Pipp My Ride.”
I’m not super-worried about Lidge. His problems last year followed a pattern: fall behind hitters, walk guys, can’t locate the slider, come in with fastball, major FAIL. If anything, as the Inquirer story today notes, he’s too in love with the slider right now.
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