[Ed. Note. - delayed front pag'd, but really good stuff here.]
First, the obligatory "it's not as bad as it feels" note:
Record through game 52 in the past 3 years...
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Wins | 28 | 32 | 28 |
| Lead | -2.5 | 4 | -2.5 |
| Runs | 260 | 290 | 238 |
| Runs Allowed | 227 | 254 | 205 |
| Diff | 33 | 36 | 33 |
| pythag wins | 29.5 | 29.4 | 29.9 |
- same wins (28) and lead (2.5 behind) as in 2008
- in spite of the offensive drought, the same run differential as in 2008 and only slightly below 2009's
- pythagorean formula projects slightly more wins
Hitting
Actually, this really is as bad as it feels:
- 26 runs in the last 15 games
- fewest runs in any 15 games in 2009: 42 (8/24-9/8 and 8/25-9/9)
- fewest runs in any 15 games in 2008: 46 (8/2-8/17)
Thru 5/17 (37 G, 1465 PAs): .280/.349/.465 (.815 OPS) - 5.73 R/G
Since 5/18 (15 G, 532 PAs): .202/.282/.288 (.569 OPS) - 1.73 R/G
Selected ratios (% of PAs):
| Games | Total | |||||||
| 2008 | 2009 | 1-37 | 38-52 | 2010 | ||||
| BABIP | .283 | .286 | .313 | .243 | .294 | |||
| Singles | 13.8% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 13.0% | 14.6% | |||
| Doubles/Triples | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | |||
| HRs | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 2.6% | |||
| XBH as % of H | 38.5% | 39.7% | 38.2% | 28.1% | 36.1% | |||
| P/PA | 3.84 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.98 | 3.89 | |||
| BB | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | |||
| K | 17.8% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 18.8% | 17.6% | |||
- BABIP was unusually high in games 1-37, and very low in the last 15
- no surprises: fewer hits, and fewer of those hits are extra base hits
- HRs were already lower than in 08-09
- More P/PA in the last 15 (3.98 vs. 3.85), keeping the walk rate around 9%
Carlos Ruiz
For the Phillies' last 128 games (more than 3/4 of a season), you can arguably call Chooch the 2nd best hitter on the team. OPS since Aug 1, including 15 postseason games:
Werth .934
Ruiz .924
Howard .907
Utley .857
Rollins .798
Victorino .749
Ibanez .745
Feliz/Pol. .698




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