Ugh: Reds 4, Phillies 3

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 4:59 PM EDT

For a while this afternoon, the Phillies looked to be in great shape. Dane Sardinha provided a 2-out, 3-run home run in the 4th inning -- the second 3-run homer in as many days from a Phils backup catcher -- and Roy Halladay was on cruise control, needing just 61 pitches through 5 innings to stifle the Reds. More than anything, it looked like an early season Doc specialty: Halladay had great command of his pitches, induced weak contact from the Reds hitters, and worked at a brisk pace. Taking 2 out of 3 from the NL Central leading Reds -- on the heels of Chase Utley and Placido Polanco heading to the DL, no less -- looked like a real possibility.

Then the Reds showed why they've been the surprise of the National League this season. Joey Votto ripped a solo home run in the 6th on a good pitch down and in, his teammates strung together three hits in the bottom of the 7th to plate another run (with a little help from a Brandon Phillips "double" that Jayson Werth pulled up on as he neared the right field wall), and Halladay made perhaps his only real poor pitch of the afternoon to Jay Bruce in the bottom of the 8th, as the former top prospect launched a homer to right to plate Jonny Gomes and give the Reds a 4-3 lead. Arthur Rhodes atoned for his Tuesday night meltdown by retiring the Phillies in order in the 8th, and a Ross Gload single was all the Phillies had to show for their efforts in the 9th inning.

It's tough to blame the result on Halladay, as the offense delivered little against Reds starter Aaron Harang, who seemed vulnerable from the get go. The club's 3 through 6 hitters went just 2-for-16 on the day with 7 strikeouts, with Wilson Valdez (2-for-4) delivering the same number of hits.

But just how unlucky was Halladay? He seemed to have command of everything all afternoon, punching out 10 and walking 0, but for the second outing in a row, fell victim to the whims of the BABIP fairy. The Reds registered hits on 11 of 25 balls in play against the Doc. The end result was a strange line: a complete game 8.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 10 K performance that pumped up his ERA, but is likely to drop his xFIP. That line screams "tough luck" to me, so I ran a quick search through the Baseball Reference Play Index to see if there have ever been any other outings like it. With parameters set at 8 or fewer innings pitched, 10 or more strikeouts, and 13 or more hits, the results came in...

Two observations: (1) that kind of bad luck doesn't happen very often (only 4 times, including Halladay's outing today, since 1920); and (2) apparently the BABIP fairy has something against Phillies greats or former Phillies greats.

Oh, and if you're brave enough to want to see the Fangraphs game probability chart from today, check here.

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Time to step it up

One of the things that has amazed me over the past two days (at least on offense), is how much we have received from the scrubs in the lineup— If you told me at the beginning of the season, or even yesterday prior to game time, that three bench players, only one of whom was with the major league squad at the beginning of the season (and who as a backup catcher would be expected to see more than the typical time afforded a Phillies backup in good years) would combine for 3, 3 run homers, I would have asked what you were smoking. I understand that there is a certain luck in hitting a home run, but I am starting to get impressed with the power hitting skills in the bottom of our lineup. Yes, I know that all of them are probably beneficiaries of the small sample size fairy (although 3 homers in 10 days for Valdez was certainly an amazing development), and will regress to their means (after all, none of the players involved are young players on the way up— they are all career backups, or worse, career minor leaguers pressed into service by the recent injury woes. But sometimes seeing them do something good makes me smile— it brings some light and a little hope in at a time when both of them are scarce for this team.

That being said, other than the tenth inning of last night’s game, the regulars need to step it up… I know that the sample size since the injuries (particularly to Utley) is very small (too small for good statistical analysis), but it feels like on offense and defense today that they made mistakes that cost this team the game— putting men on base that ultimately scored that may not have had those plays resulted in outs instead of hits. Just frustrating. I hope team Humpty-Dumpty can put itself back together again, and that at some point the starting eight will all be on the field again to play together… but until they are, everybody needs to do what it takes to cover for the losses— circus plays on defense and combining for the same number of hits as Exxon will not do it.

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

ok

I just wish it were a matter of trying harder but I think the facts are that this team, as presently constituted, is just an OK baseball team.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 30, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with that— I think the bigger question is this: is the problem mostly injury related (read get the starting eight back together with all of them 100% and the problems would fix), in which case, the fact is that we are pretty yutzed for this year, barring some minor miracles tomorrow morning in NYC, but gives possible optimism that getting everyone (except probably Jayson Werth) back next year would leave the Phillies a talented squad (provided that they can get through without losing 4/5 of their infield at one point or another to major injuries), or is this the first sign of a setting sun— a Phillies team that is past its peak, and whose best days are in the rear view mirror?

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

You know – you’re right.

You definitely need to step it up.

by jemagee on Jun 30, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup… I need to work on my sunny disposition… but everytime it starts to return, something happens that sends me back to being my usual Eeyore self… however, I am in the business of birthday resolutions (Since my b-day and New Years are about six months apart, I set goals at both times of the year)… I will try to be a happier more chirpy person… and more of an optimist.

Thank-you for your feedback

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Today i had the worst sinus headache i’ve ever had
my gf’s car broke down on the highway – it needs a new engine – i don’t have 3500 dollars to fix it or a way to get a new car at the moment

I’m still doing ok – life really could be a lot worse – if your biggest worry is that the phillies are in trouble – consider yourself super lucky

by jemagee on Jun 30, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Nope… not the biggest worry in my life by any extent…

About to be unemployed, praying that the next contract job will come quickly or that I will get really lucky and the firm I am at and hoping that I have squirreled away enough money to last through the meanwhile (which means praying that I do not have a major crisis in the interim). Sports is largely how I distract myself from the crap in my life… and my attitude about sports unfortunately has evolved from a basically Eeyore attitude on life— one of the things that I am working on in my quest to become a hapier human.

I am sorry to hear about your headache— Advil Cold and Sinus works wonders (available behind the counter at the pharmacy due to its pseudoephedrine content, but worth the wait and the trouble). I am also sorry to hear about the car. I know that I am one of the lucky ones— I just have to learn to be more optimistic… to realize how full my glass is, even when things are not going well.

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Have you met this guy? Maybe it’s time.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 1, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

He frightens me… I am trying to get to realism— positivity is far too dangerous in my current place in life.

by dannijd on Jul 1, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

My birthday is Sat. I will be 30. I would love nothing more than a sweep of the Pirates or a least 3 out of 4. I will settle for a 4 game stretch where Victorino doesn’t ground out to the 2nd baseman. That is just such a downer and I believe it is a upper for the other team.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:21 PM EDT reply actions

As for the sweep, me too… I am still hopeful for this weekend because of the opponent (although they took one of two from us last time). As for a four game stretch without grounding out to the center of the field— good luck… but less important to me if the team at least wins!

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I know win is the most. But I really like victorino I just like him but his I think it is at least once a game grounding out to first or second, I would like him to a least try out the third baseman maybe it goes through.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d have to look at his spray chart, and see if it would split handedness, but he seems to pull the ball as a LHB and pop it up or out as a RHB. That’s just what I think, but I haven’t checked out the actuals.

by Bilzo on Jun 30, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I am not to sure on the RHB but he does pull it a lot to 2nd and 1st. I just would like to see me try to not pull it but that is just wishing.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I meant him,sorry.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Victorino too— he is fun to watch, and is my mom’s favorite player— seeing him homer “at” Toronto was my mom’s favorite part of the game. I also love some of the catches he has managed to make. However, I agree with you on the grounding out to second— a nice little homer (with the obligatory cardiac save at the end) would have been a great birthday present. Maybe the team will have more luck for your birthday than it did on mine.

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Hope so. He is my moms favorite player too. She saw one of the NL series game I think last year when she flew up for a visit. I have only been 2 spring games here in florida where I live. But a least I get to see some FSL games here in lakeland and sometimes in tampa.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Victorino is also my ma’s favorite.

by j reed on Jun 30, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

You know what else I noticed about that play index? 3 of the 4 people (incl. today’s perf by the doc) gave up multiple homers in the midst of their double-digit hits.

The problem I have with BABIP being used as a good luck/bad luck statistic is that it removes home runs from consideration as they’re not balls in play. Hitting a home run is not “luck”. Sure…once in a while a guy hits a fly ball that the wind carries or it dinks the foul pole, but those are the ones you chalk up to luck, and the ones sent 30 rows back…welp…they don’t get counted either.

If you give up big-flies on a day when you’re giving up lots of other hits, you’re going to get pasted. Halladay is “lucky” that he only got tagged for 4 runs IMHO.

by Bilzo on Jun 30, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions

I hear what you’re saying, but consider this: it’s well established that fly balls leave the yard at a rate of around 11%. Halladay surrendered 11 fly balls today, but 3 of those were infield pop ups. So 2 of his 8 outfield fly balls left the yard (25%)… and one of those was on a pitch that Votto had no business hitting out. I mean, that happens sometimes, but I hesitate to blame Halladay. Pitchers can essentially only control their fly ball rate, and it’s dumb luck past that.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The other thing is how much bad BABIP luck accounted for runs scored in this game— with better defensive support, that first runner in the 8th is out, not on, and the result only ties the game. Further, good defense may have prevented the one small ball run from scoring. Yes, he gave up two home runs, but a better defense (or a touch more offense) may have been the difference between a win and a loss.

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 7:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Flyballs leave the yard at an 11% average across the league for all hitters. I would imagine that the number is higher for batters named Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ryan Howard, etc…

Where do “line drives” fit into this equation, because….not all home runs are fly balls. I didn’t see the game today live, so I don’t know if any were rockets.

by Bilzo on Jun 30, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions

To the first point: HR/FB% for hitters is entirely different proposition than HR/FB% for pitchers (much in the same way that BABIP is). Any variations in HR/FB% for pitchers really come to luck, with an ever so slight role played by park factors (e.g. Clayton Kershaw’s gotten a slight bump from this, but he’s also been lucky).

As for how line drives fit in, I’ll admit I’m not entirely sure. I counted both home runs today as fly balls because they were “Fliners” according to Fangraphs.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think your analysis is flawed.

It may well be that fly balls become homers 11% of the time on average. It does not follow that a pitcher is unlucky if 25% of his fly balls are homer in one particular game. Sometimes, you will be above the average; sometimes, below. I don’t call that luck. I call that statistics.

I also think it’s wrong to focus on BABIP for the entire game. The analysis should be on innings 6, 7 and 8 when Halladay gave up 4 runs. Aside from the two homers, what about Gomes’ hit ahead of Bruce’s homer? And the hits by Hernandez, Phillips and Cabrera that led to the run in the 7th? If you were a fan watching the game, would you say that Halladay got screwed the way the runs were scored? Regarding the Votto homer, good hitters sometimes amaze. That’s baseball.

by Derekcarstairs on Jun 30, 2010 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

agreed. Sometimes the hitter wins the battle. That’s why they play. It doesn’t mean that Halladay is bad.

by Bilzo on Jun 30, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Call it whatever you like; I’m just pointing out the simple fact that Halladay, as a ground ball pitcher, isn’t likely to give up 2 home runs in a game very often. Furthermore, while BABIP over the course of one game is obviously prone to large fluctuations (i.e. we can’t say, “Oh, it was .310, therefore he was unlucky”), that’s only accentuated if we focus on BABIP for just 3 innings.

Look, bottom line: Halladay gave up 25 balls in play and 11 fell in for hits. He allowed 8 outfield fly balls, and 2 left the yard. I don’t think I ever implied that he got “screwed,” just pointing out that “That’s baseball,” and that if he continues to pitch to these peripherals, he’ll be just fine. Past that, I’m not really sure where my analysis is “flawed.”

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not saying it’s flawed. I’m just expressing a beef with the BABIP stat not incorporating HRs because ’they’re not in play by fielders’. The assumption therewith is that you can’t assess if a fielder could get to the ball to turn it into an out, so it’s disregarded. The insane flaw with that is it is ‘disregarding’ the one kind of hit ball that does the most damage to the pitcher.

by Bilzo on Jun 30, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Right, and my “flawed” response wasn’t aimed at you.

As for the home run thing, I agree that using BABIP by itself as the be all, end all of assessing a pitcher’s performance is just plain wrong. It’s a data point just like anything else, and it’s particularly prone to being misused in small samples. My point was that when it’s abnormally high, and a ground ball pitcher has surrendered two home runs in a start (while, incidentally, striking out 10 of the 37 batters he faced), I think it’s fair to conclude that the pitcher in question may have pitched better than his earned run total indicated.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I would almost like to see a BABIP + rating that would include homeruns to be used alongside standard BABIP in determing a pitcher’s luck on balls in play. Mostly, though, I use BABIP to grade the Defense… Today they failed… But once this year, they were a perfect 16 of 16…maybe with time it will balance out, although I think there is going to be a BABIP spike due to injuries for at least a little while.

by dannijd on Jul 1, 2010 12:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

If your only point was that this game is not representative of Halladay’s norm, then I agree. My problem is with citing BABIP and HR/fly ball percentages and using the term “luck”. It sounds too much like excuse-making. We know Halladay is a great pitcher. Today, he was sub-par.

I did not mean to imply that a BABIP analysis should have been done only for innings 6, 7 and 8. I meant an eye-witness analysis of those three innings was the key to Halladay’s performance.

by Derekcarstairs on Jun 30, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m honestly not making excuses for Doc. I was fortunate enough to see the game today, and he had his good stuff. He generally hit his spots, struck out a bunch of Reds, didn’t walk anyone… yet somehow surrendered 13 hits, despite, as I said above, there being few balls hit hard off of him all day. That happens to all pitchers at times, but I think labeling his performance “sub-par” is unfair, as it judges the result and not the process.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

If you saw the game, then your assessment of Doc’s performance is based on a lot more data than a couple of isolated stats. Lose the references to BABIP and HR/fly ball percentages for a single game, then I am 100% with you.

by Derekcarstairs on Jun 30, 2010 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, to circle back to the original statistical point: there have only been 3 games in baseball history like Halladay’s today (i.e. 8 innings or less, 10 strikeouts or more, 13 hits or more). Change the parameters so that we find similar games (still 8 innings or less, 10 strikeouts or more) with less than 13 hits, and we get… 2,910 games, including 62 times this season alone. Given that, I don’t think it’s at all unfair to say that Halladay was unlucky today.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 30, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This to me is the more relevant point. That’s one helluva lot of games. The mere likelihood of it happening is miniscule. The fact that it happened to those particular pitchers (and I’m sure Grover Cleveland Alexander probably had one too) is amazing.

May be time to hit the Phanatic.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 1, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Man Halladay must wonder why does this happen to me? I think things like this happened with the Jays. to quote the Horse on Ren and Stimpy " No Sir I don’t like it"

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Jun 30, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions

by Opisgod on Jun 30, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions

That little teal jobber on the 1.5 horizontal is the Votto home run, I presume?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 1, 2010 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Vamos Marlines!

by j reed on Jun 30, 2010 10:20 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's a bad sign

when I have more faith in Moyer starting than Halladay.

by MyronBales on Jun 30, 2010 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know that I would go that far… I think Halladay has been unlucky in some ways that have impacted his statistics, including bad luck with balls in play and a lack of run support in some games leading to a win-loss record that mirrors Moyer’s. Considering the state of the defense, the bigger concern is what it is going to do to Moyer’s ability to pitch well since his pitching style necessitates a greater degree of infield defensive support since he does not get as many strikeouts as Halladay.

by dannijd on Jun 30, 2010 11:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

haven’t you ever seen “Rookie of the Year”? Use the hidden ball trick, challenge anyone on first to run by throwing the ball up then dropping it, and throw underhand to their monster goateed home run hitter. No defense required.

"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone

by layout ultimate on Jul 1, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions

That, of course, assumes that Moyer's lost his blazing 110mph fastball by tripping on a ball in the grass.

And, considering that Moyer doesn’t throw 110mph anymore, is currently a soft-tossing eephus-machine, and once played for the Cubs, it’s actually quite possible that Moyer IS Henry Rowangardner!

by Phrozen on Jul 1, 2010 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Domonic Brown went 3for4, with his 2nd AAA homer

by DannyO on Jul 1, 2010 1:06 AM EDT reply actions

if he could play infield (or we could move a current OFer to the IF) I’d care much more about him right now, but sadly, he’s just next years news to me at this point.

by Bilzo on Jul 1, 2010 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions

He is giving me hope for next year… and amusement during this one— I hope that he does well and that the Phillies are not foolish enough to deal away their phuture to fix this team now. However, I am with you on the fact that he just seems completely irrelevant right now to the Phillies situation.

by dannijd on Jul 1, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions