Popped Clutch: Padres 6, Phillies 5 (10)
by dajafi on Jun 6, 2010 5:36 PM EDT
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PrintReports that the hell-slump was over might have been premature. While the Phillies did put five runs on the board Sunday, Padres defensive mistakes were responsible for all five, and the team didn't crack the scoreboard over the last eight innings as hitters repeatedly came up small in key situations, going 2 for 13 with men in scoring position and 0 for 8 after the second. The result was a deflating 6-5 loss that saw several fine relief performances and defensive plays go to waste.
Joe Blanton further cemented his status as the number five man in the rotation with a poor performance against a less than imposing Padres lineup. He put the Phils in an immediate 3-0 hole, allowing a two-run homer to Adrian Gonzalez and a run-scoring single to Matt Stairs--who then, hand to God, stole a base. The Phils looked to have a threat going in the bottom of the inning when Shane Victorino singled and Placido Polanco reached on an error, but settled for just one run after Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both grounded out to the right side. They were more opportunistic in the second, however; with Raul Ibanez on first and one out, Juan Castro hit a sure double play ball to shortstop, but former Gold Glover Gonzalez couldn't handle the relay throw, allowing the inning to continue. Rattled San Diego starter Kevin Correia then melted down, as Blanton followed with a single under the glove of third baseman Chase Headley, Victorino walked, Polanco knocked in two runs with a single to left to tie the game, Utley walked, and Howard singled in two more with a liner off the glove of second baseman Lance Zawadzki to give the Phils a 5-3 lead.
Blanton couldn't hold it, allowing a run in the fourth on a Gonzalez RBI single and another when Nick Hundley led off the fifth with a solo homer that tied the game. In all, Blanton allowed 11 hits and struck out three in his five innings, needing 99 pitches to do so. But he was ably relieved by Chad Durbin (1.2 IP), J.C. Romero (0.2), Jose Contreras (0.2 on one pitch, a grounder to third by David Eckstein that Polanco turned into a 5-3-5 double play as Howard fired back across the diamond to nail Tony Gwynn Jr.) and Brad Lidge (another dominant 1-2-3). Unfortunately, the Phils squandered opportunities in the 7th, 8th and 9th against the very tough Padres bullpen.
As one might have expected, Danys Baez broke the run of good relief in the 10th. He allowed a single to Headley, who advanced to third on a sacrifice by Hundley and a groundout by Will Venable. Charlie Manuel ordered an intentional walk to Gwynn, but the move backfired when pinch-hitter Oscar Salazar singled to deep short, beating a long throw by Wilson Valdez.
The Phils delivered one last scoop of deep frustration in the bottom of the 10th. Facing shutdown closer Heath Bell, Polanco walked and Utley dunked a single into shallow center--where Gwynn, who had been playing deep, charged the ball and made a perfect throw to nail Polanco at third. Needless to say, Ryan Howard then followed with a single, moving Utley to third, before Bell absolutely blew away Jayson Werth on strikes to end the game.
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Number five man
If my stats are right, these are the quality starts/total starts this season for the rotation:
Halladay – 10/12, Hamels – 5/11, Moyer – 5/11, Kendrick – 5/11, Blanton – 2/7, Happ – 0/2, and Figueroa – 0/1. Happ gave up 0 ER in two five-inning starts. Figueroa gave up 2 ER in his five-inning start. In each of Blanton’s two quality starts he gave up 3 ER. Team total is 27/55. I’m not a big fan of the stat, but it does give a quick view of how well the starters are doing at keeping a team in the game. Thanks to Halladay especially, the starters have the fourth best ERA in the NL, but the number of quality starts is tied for only 11th best. Just to note how valuable Halladay is: if Halladay is like the other starters, with only five quality starts, the team would be at the bottom of the league in quality starts.
by phillyinportland on Jun 6, 2010 6:29 PM EDT reply actions
FWIW, a couple of Blanton’s early starts would have qualified as QS’s if Mackanin/Charlie had pulled him at a reasonable time.
True enough. In fact, his first four starts were all half decent. First and third starts would have been quality if he’d been lifted after six innings. It’s his last three times out that have been bad all around: 16.1 IP and 14 ER, 7K, 5BB. I’ve noticed that JA Happ is in rehab and scheduled to go Tuesday for Clearwater. Blanton’s next start is Friday in Boston, so there’s no chance Happ would be ready by then, but maybe by the next start, scheduled for New York on June 17th? It would be great to see Blanton in top form against those two clubs, but the way he’s pitching now I’d rather start Jose Contreras.
by phillyinportland on Jun 6, 2010 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I did not watch this game, but the highlights appear the slump is still lifting. I don’t agree with the pessimism here. Those balls were hit hard and not all runs were scored on bad defense. This team is starting to hit and would have tied this game had it not been for a beautiful throw by gwynn. I am frustrated by ruiz’s at bat in the bottom of the ninth. But, the padres are a good team and have a good bullpen. Can’t win them all, but the runs and hits are something to really be positive about going forward. Blanton is obviously not the same since returning from his first ever stint on the dl.
Cole Hamels tomorrow against Wade LeBlanc.
LeBlanc’s a lefty. 25 years old. First full season in the majors.
ERA 3.67, FIP 4.28, xFIP 4.66
35 BB, 21 K, 5 HR in 49.0 IP
It’s actually the other way around 35 k, 21 BB. Still not good at all.
We’re gonna get freaking shut out again, aren’t we?
Woops. Yeah, that’s right. His fielding-independent stats are respectable though, so he must be doing something right. Not an elite pitcher though.
Why not??? Because it isn’t, or because you do not like Kendrick (and for the record, after his first tow starts, I was ready to ship Kendrick off to the minors/out of baseball— my opinion is being changed— he looks like he is improving… Although that is with eyes instead of fancy stats)?
by dannijd on Jun 6, 2010 9:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Because I think he is a mediocre pitcher based on stats that measure those kinds of things. He’s on a good run, but I still don’t believe he can be anything more than a AAAA guy.
Bad bad bad. Not you, Kendrick. You’re great Matt! You have a 2.15 SIERA at inventing awesome stats.
Ironically, Brad Lidge’s SIERA after today is exactly 2.15. That can’t bode well for my future, can it?
Why not (I promise I will learn stats some day)???
by dannijd on Jun 7, 2010 1:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What is SIERA (not quite a stat-head yet)?
by dannijd on Jun 6, 2010 11:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
An invention of Eric Seidman and myself
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=547
That’s the glossary page for it. The articles are linked there, too. We launched a five-part series that was free on the stat. It’s Skill-Interactive ERA, basically taking into account similar things as xFIP, but with interactions that account for the fact that ground ball tendencies can limit the dangers of walking people, while extreme ground ball pitchers are especially stingy with run prevention beyond what is accounted for in linear models.
Not really. Kendrick’s xFIP is higher than that, for one thing. LeBlanc is ranked 50-something among NL starters, and since there are around 80 starters in the NL, yeah that’s respectable.
I think a reasonable definition of respectable is better-than-mediocre, so if you think Kendrick is mediocre… I don’t think you have to be above-average to be respectable. We already have a word for above-average.
I understand he doesn’t throw hard. Doubt it’ll be a shutout, but I can see us not scoring more than 1 or 2, for sure.
by dajafi on Jun 6, 2010 9:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Plus, let’s keep in mind the Phillies have an 8-inning scoreless streak going.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 6, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
We better not get beat by a guy named Wade LeBlanc
Wade LeBlanc – the lead character in the new French Canadian version of Texas Walker Ranger starring Jean Claude Van Damme as LeBlanc, the metrosexual Mountie who only deals in ass kicking, karate justice.
Mike Stanton will be making his major league debut against us on Tuesday.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/06/06/marlins-mike-stanton-on-way-to-majors/
Stanton was considered to be a prospect on the same level as Jason Heyward coming into the year and has torn up AA this year. Frankie Piliere actually had Stanton ahead of Heyward in January.
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-1-25/
the worst part about all this mess was that 5 runs would’ve won almost any game during that hitting slump, but today…not so much.
No problems with Polanco getting nailed at 3rd. That was a heckuva throw by TGJ and that’s what it took to nail him. Playing the odds there and it just came up snake eyes.
It was definitely a gamble, but now that I’ve seen the replay on TV I think you have to cut Polanco some slack. It was aggressive and, like you said, it was a heckuva throw. If it works and Howard gets his single, you’ve helped put the team one fly ball away from the win.
by phillyinportland on Jun 6, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I know what you intended, but for accuracy’s sake, if it works and Howard hits the single, they would have won the game.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 6, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you figure? It works, runners are on the corners, 1 out. Howard hits his single, Polanco scores to tie it, but Utley is still on third… 1 out. Werth strikes out… Score tied, 2 outs— we don’t know the rest of the sequence, so how do you get to we won?
by dannijd on Jun 6, 2010 11:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You are correct! I got my 8th and 9th blown chances confused with the 10th. For accuracy’s sake, tied.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 7, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think Polanco should be bashed for it, but it wasn’t the right move. The marginal benefit of being on third with one out vs. being on second with one out isn’t all that large. You will score on most base hits regardless. Being on third is a little bit better because there are a few other plays you can also score on. But I don’t think that small benefit is worth taking the chance of getting thrown out if there’s any appreciable risk.
granted the offense has been better of late, but I think it was the correct move based on the following:
1) The ball was in front of Polanco who read it the whole way. It took a perfect strike from Tony Gwynn Jr throwing off his wrong foot to nail him at third, and that play was very close. He was inarguably out, but still, not by much at all. Anything goes awry in that sequence and he’s on third. Credit the Padres for a great fielding play.
2) Polanco can score from third on a WP/PB/SF, weak grounder, and with him at 3rd, they can’t overshift howard too much as a fielder has to keep him relatively close to the bag. This offense has still been pretty cruddy at scoring runs, so take calculated risks that give you the best chance of scoring on mistakes by the opposition.
How come every announcer can look at Werth and see that he's starting his swing late, but
he doesn’t adjust. In Atlanta and New York visiting announcers easily looked at Werth’s swing and saw that he wasn’t starting his subtle toe-tap early enough and was thus late on fastballs. I’m sure he’s been coached up on this, but it’s still frustrating. And on a side note, can we please stop believing that Baez is anything but a has-been? He can’t be trusted when games are on the line – bottom line. And at this point, who in the bullpen can be trusted? This team is a mess. One consistent starting pitcher. A streaky offense. And absolutely one of the worst benches in the league. How are they above .500?
It is weird— The away announcers in Washington said the same thing about Werth early in the season— they said that he was moving late… What I would love to do is lay two tapes side by side of him swinging at fastballs— preferably of the same speed— one he hits, the other he misses, and see if the mechanics are off or what the deal is… I just keep hoping he will snap out of it, although I am running out of patience with him (andto an extent with this team).
As much as I will agree with you that the bullpen has its problems (I am not blind)— they have also done a lot right. Lidge is looking better— sharper than he did last year— and has three 1-2-3 innings in a row— a big achievement for him after last year. As for the rest of the bullpen, they have had their moments as well— both good and bad— are they consistent— no. Would I rather them be consistent— only if it is consistently good.
As for why the Phillies are still over .500— thank the streaky offense for sometimes gettingnit right and the questionable starting pitching, and the inconsistent bullpen… And I guess while you are at it, thank one of the worst benches in the league— those players won at least 1 or 2 of those games.
by dannijd on Jun 6, 2010 11:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Blanton
Blanton last year had turned a major corner, from being a innings eater contact pitcher to a real guy with top of the rotation results. Most people are so used to looking at the extreme fluctuations in pitching production, they don’t notice innings eaters taking a step up. Blanton was 28 last year and took a major step up, dropping his SIERA from 4.77 during his 2008 Phillies stint down to 3.92. The main difference was his K-rate, which went up from 11.3% in Oakland in 2008 to 16.1% during his 2008 Phillies time to 19.5% in 2009. There wasn’t anything different about his stuff, but his performance was just better, and there are few things more likely to indicate a stable improvement than a jump in K-rate.
But Blanton is sitting at 11.5% Ks this year and is back up to a 4.88 SIERA. That’s bad, real bad. The nosedive in strikeout rate is a bad sign, but he’s not throwing slower or anything. I cannot really say what’s going wrong but they are hitting him much more and much harder.
What people might not have realized is that one of the things that was the difference in between the Phillies being a good team to being a great team last year was the improvement in Blanton. This year, he appeared to be a good #2 pitcher according to his projections, and the Phillies had him slotted in the #3 spot. Then he strains his oblique and doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff.
Looking at the FanGraphs pitch f/x tab, I see that they are saying that he is throwing more two-seem fastballs and fewer four-seem fastballs, but I honestly cannot say how much of an effect that’s having . But his velocity and other pitch selection seems pretty constant. Something’s gotta switch, though, because even winning the division with Moyer as the #3 (or Happ if he can get healthy) is going to be hard.
Matt, I’ve read and seen typical and advanced stats that reveal how much better his second half was than his first. Was that seasonal split also evident with SIERA? Also, does pitch f/x note a change in location? How would you describe this season start differently from Hamels 2009?
Clearly, my thinking (hardly alone here) is that the injury led to this regression. With the money, and commitment from the Phillies, the only mulligan seemingly left is the time he missed this spring, although it’s running out for that excuse. I don’t know how many more starts you give him, especially with the offense being so terrible. It’d be hell to give up on a bona fide innings-eater at age 29.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 7, 2010 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Why are the only options leave him in the rotation or give up on him? Wouldn’t it be possible to put him in the bullpen, which would at least solve any issues relating to endurance? Granted it would not solve the first inning runs in his last couple of starts, but this would be an option to allow him some time to work on his mechanics while only being used occasionally… I don’t want to give up on him, but he is getting really hard to watch.
by dannijd on Jun 7, 2010 1:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
i don’t know about month by month SIERA because i’d need batted ball numbers. i know his xFIP was similar month to month, with the worst actually being sept/oct with 4.4ish and best in july at 3.6.
pitch f/x doesn’t do location changes, but location is very inconsistent from pitcher to pitcher i’ve been told. one of those things that is very important but tough to reliably reproduce unless you’re greg maddux. everyone misses over the plate now and then.
hamels start to 2009 was characterized by a little bump in line drive and a lot of singles falling in short. the line drive rate went down, but the looping singles went on. he definitely was striking people out by the second or third start.
Could we still be in “small sample size” territory?
Through his first 7 starts last season he was also pretty bad with an ERA above 6 and a K/BB ratio of about 2. Granted his K-rate was much higher through those first 7 games (33 K’s in 39.1 IP) which speaks to your point about his plummeting K numbers so far this season. However, through his first 7 starts this season his K/BB is actually a tick better than it was last season at this point (22/10). What is really disturbing, also, is that going into today’s game, his BABIP was only .272. Is there much of a precedent for pitchers suddenly seeing an jump in K-rate mid-season?
What is a good/ bad BABIP for a pitcher?
by dannijd on Jun 7, 2010 1:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Generally a pitcher’s BABIP stays within one hundredth of .300 on either side and they have little control over it.
So Blanton is getting too lucky, which means he is going to get worse???? (insert cringe here) Also, does this same stat work for hitters, or is theirs something more controllable by them/ impossible to pin to anything?
by dannijd on Jun 7, 2010 7:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
From what I’ve seen, hitters tend to have more control over BABIP, and it varies a lot more. To use a couple players we should be familiar with as examples:
Ryan Howard has a career .330 BABIP, varying from a .285 in 2008 to a .375 his rookie year.
Jimmy Rollins averages .293, but he’s been everywhere from a .251 last year to a .370 his rookie year.
Carlos Ruiz has a career .271, but that’s varied from a .237 in 2008 to this year’s .356.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10358
That’s the third article in my 3 part series on hitter BABIP, with links to the previous two. I think they might be subscriber only, though.
Hitters control their BABIPs about 3x as much as pitchers, by my numbers. The range of possible talent is .250-.350 with nearly everyone fitting in the .270-.330 range. good BABIP guys hit the ball hard, are fast, hit more grounders and fewer infield popups, and hit more line drives. for the phillies, the best BABIP guy is werth who can do about .330 BABIP sustainably, with howard not so far behind. utley is around .310 skill-wise, rollins around .290, chooch around .280, polanco around .315, victorino around .300, and ibanez around .300 IIRC.
the small sample size doesn’t really seem to be a good explanation. we’re in the statistically significant range, at least with respect to comparing him to last year. if you want to say his true talent was really only 16% K’s (league average = 17%), you’re just short statistically significant but it’s close. His BABIP is lucky but not much, and his HR/FB is a little unlucky but not much, and his timing of hits is unlucky too. Net, he’s unlucky in the sense that he’s pitching like a pitcher that should have a 4.9 ERA and his is 6.1.
There can be midseason K jumps for sure, but color me concerned.
That’s my other question. You mentioned that Blanton’s increase in K rate last season was a good indication of real improvement, but is it possible for a pitcher to show a spike in K rate over such a large sample that is actually a fluke? In other words, what are the chances that he is, in fact a 16% guy as opposed to the guy he was last season?
by FuquaManuel on Jun 7, 2010 10:56 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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