Howard's Phutility

by Bilzo on Jun 7, 2010 8:43 PM EDT

I got to thinking a little bit tonight, about how often it seems that Ryan seems just lost at the plate this year. While his average is decent, it's actually right around his career norm. His slugging is way down this year, over 100 pts lower than career norms. What trouble me most though, was my perception that when Howard whiffs, he seems to be very efficient at it. Now bear in mind, you have to see at least 3 pitches to whiff, so I wanted to compare Howard to some of his peers in whiffdom. Results after the jump.

For comparisons, I set the cutoff as NL batters with 50 or more K's as of 07 June 2010 (Howard was at 61, Reynolds-the leader at 76). That's 22 batters to look at. Then I sorted those guys by PA/K, to get some perspective on who the truly prolific whiffers are this season. Mark Reynolds retains the title at an even 3 PA/K. Howard comes in twelfth at roughly 4 PA/K (one spot ahead of Werth.... Fielder came in at the bottom going about 5 PA/K.

Now... onto what concerned me when I started this, which is P/PA. I have no idea what league average is, I guess I could look it up, but this is a specialezed crew I'm looking at, so I wanted to compare Ryan to his peers in K-ing. The results (and I'm sorry to say they're not encouraging).

Batter K PA/K P/PA

Ryan Howard 61 3.98 3.72

Jay Bruce 50 4.60 3.81

Jason Bay 55 4.45 3.84

Prince Fielder 52 4.94 3.89

Cam Maybin 56 3.56 3.91

Rickie Weeks 70 3.90 3.95

Ryan Ludwick 53 4.57 3.96

Ian Stewart 52 3.94 4.00

Adam LaRoche 55 3.87 4.04

Will Venable 59 3.18 4.05

(other notables)

Mark Reynolds 76 3.00 4.21

David Wright 69 3.51 4.28

Jayson Werth 55 4.00 4.39

What is so troubling about this data is it suggests that Howard, who sees the least P/PA amongst the whiffers, has the worst pitch recognition, as he strikes out the "quickest' when compared to his peers. I realize that the data could also suggest that he's just more overly aggressive and the low P/PA is more a result of his free swinging, but that's why I chose to compare him to his peers.

Thoughts? Glasses, maybe?

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Comments

Jayson Stark said pitchers were taking advantage of the phillies ‘bad’ pitch recognition more this year than other years (tendency to swing at slop), and if i could figure out how to make a heat map using R I’d try and do something…but I’ve always felt ryan howard had bad pitch recognition on low pitches – i wonder if people are finally taking advantage?

by jemagee on Jun 7, 2010 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

One question— I know that your thing tacks pitches per plate attempt, but have you thought about looking at swinging strikes versus taken strikes? Also, and I understand that this data would be even more difficult to find— strikes swung on in zone versus times when he is chasing something out of the strike zone? By itself, I do not see the low number of pitches per attempt to be a problem, although you could very well be on to something.

by dannijd on Jun 8, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

I don’t know where to find that data. My point of concern is that guys who strikeout at a high rate, should see a fair number of pitches, because you have to see at least 3 to strike out. We all pick on Rollins for not being patient at the plate, but he doesn’t strike out at the same rate as these fellas because he makes contact early and ends the AB (quite often on bad pitches, but he makes contact).

The low P/PA for Howard tells me that he’s just not making contact at all and/or his pitch recognition is hideous. He’s not fighting off pitches with 2 strikes, he watching strikes, he’s missing pitches.

It’s bad.

by Bilzo on Jun 8, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

True… I guess the weird thing (particularly since his K rate usually drives me nuts) is how much he is not bothering me right now…. it may be that those around him are so much worse that him and Victorino do not seem to earn my aggravation— I thought this was because they were improving… I am beginning to believe that it is more a matter of the field being so much worse that their problems kind of fall into the background.

by dannijd on Jun 8, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

does anyone think Milt’s job is a risk if this doesn’t turn around soon?

by #26HOF2B on Jun 8, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions

I think that he has a few more weeks to right the ship, but am afraid that he may become the sacrificial lamb if this team does not get it together— it is a shame— while it is true that the team has not been hitting well over the past several weeks, he is also the engineer of the offense that was so successful over the past three years, and thus has earned a certain measure of patience.

by dannijd on Jun 8, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

They are were both Phillies on the 1993 team. How that effect his job security, I don’t know.

by j reed on Jun 9, 2010 6:49 AM EDT up reply actions

who?

by dannijd on Jun 9, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Does anyone here know how to create heat maps in R using a CSV file for data? There’s something I want to look at regarding howards plate approach but I don’t know how to put the data into the heat map

by jemagee on Jun 9, 2010 1:45 PM EDT reply actions