Some Phillies Links for You, July 1, 2010: Bad Day in Philliesville, Domonic Brown Picks Us Up
by WholeCamels on Jul 1, 2010 8:13 AM EDT
Email
PrintLehigh Valley IronPigs playing off Domonic Brown's hype, skill
Let's trade him for Ted Lilly. He's only a prospect!
Brown shines again to back Bump in 6-4 win - Morning Call
Three hits, including a home run, for Domonic Brown. What if he starts forcing the issue for a callup this season? Trade Werth?
Phillies Notes: Infielders seek 2d opinions
It's got to be bad if they're seeking second opinions. It means they didn't necessarily like the first ones.
Phillies Notebook: Phillies should learn medical status of Utley, Polanco today
Say a little prayer, if you're into that kind of thing.
Inside the Phillies: Two injuries could put Phils on spot
Please, no panic trades. I'd rather punt on 2010 than make a deal out of desperation.
Six teams after Cliff Lee
And apparently the Phillies are in that mix. I don't really agree with that move. "Good money after bad"?
Camp Erin: A place where grieving kids can go to feel normal
Cancer took Erin in 2000, but the Moyers never forgot her. Two years later, in the girl's honor, their nonprofit foundation founded Camp Erin, a weekend overnight bereavement camp for children 6 to 17 who have lost someone they loved. The first camp opened in Everett, Wash., north of Seattle. Today it's the largest bereavement camp in the country with 36 camps in 23 states.
OK, Jamie Moyer and his wife are officially the sweetest people ever.
Big green litigation machine
He sexually assaulted me with his tongue. I want justice!
Halladay loses handle late in Phillies' loss to Reds
I've been turning over the rocks in some of the uglier parts of the Phillies Internets and the backlash against Halladay and his 9-7 record is ramping up...
Mets 6, Marlins 5: Rough Ride In San Juan Ends On A High Note - Amazin' Avenue
Booooooo...
Jurrjens Does It All In His Return, Braves Win 4-1 - Talking Chop
And now, Jair Jurrjens is back. Oh happy day.
70 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Another Thought on the Second Opinion Thing (Perhaps Overly Optimistic)
Could the opinions that they are getting (particularly on Utley, as I think the problem with Polanco is that nobody may be able to figure out what the problem is) be borderline, i.e. something that may heal if left to its own devices, but may not (I had a friend with a partially torn ACL that eventually despite bracing and waiting needed surgery— she went through 8 weeks of trying to get it to heal on its own, before reconcilling herself to the fact that it wouldn’t). I almost feel like if the injury were obviously severe (a complete tear) that there would not be a need for multiple opinions, as the answer would be as clear as the MRI pictures. I have accepted that the team probably will not have either of them back anytime soon, but am hoping that maybe the prognosis is not worst case scenario.
Comment in Cliff Lee article:
“I doubt the phillies will trade for Lee since it will Likely cost then dom brown”
I do not understand why the Phillies are even bothering to scout Cliff Lee considering both the state of the farm system and, more importantly, given the current state of the team. While I will admit that starting pitching is a problem (and possibly given the fact that the team is going to get Madson and Durbin back soon a bigger problem than the bullpen— particularly if the plan is to send Kendrick to the ’pen upon finding starting pitching), it is far from the biggest problem the Phillies have right now— I like Cliff Lee as much as anybody else on this board, and I felt the Phillies made a mistake trading him away as much as anyone. However, there are two very big holes in the infield— and unless Cliff Lee has the magical ability to play Second and Third base (both well and simultaneously with pitching every fifth day) bringing him back does not make this a playoff team. Mind you, my opinion of getting Cliff Lee back would have been much better last week, although I still would have felt that the cost benefit did not work… The events of this week have just caused trading for him to devolve from bad to insane. I do not even understand why the Phillies scouts were at that game.
RAJ would be making a big mistake by not, at least, kicking the tires and doing his due diligence. The prospect cost for Cliff Lee should be lower now than it was a year ago when the Phillies got him for a handful of mostly throw away spare parts, and than December when the M’s got him for spare parts.
No reason Dom would be any part of that package, if he didn’t need to be last year with 1.5 years on Lee’s contract, he doesn’t need to be now with 3 or 4 months left on Lee’s contract. The M’s would ask about Brown, Singleton and Valle. They seem interested in catching prospects, and I could live with sending them Valle, as Valle could still be struck with Catcher Stagnation Syndrome. Throw in an outfielder or two and it could happen. Our main obstacle is that the M’s will likely want a few close to the Majors guys, and we have none to trade.
Lastly, the Phils aren’t in that bad of shape here. The offense would lose a lot with Utley and Polanco out, but theoretically, the Defense may be better with Valdez in there and equal-ish with Castro. We may not score as much, but defense is equally important, so that may offset SOME of the Offensive problems caused by injuries.
That is my point… he may not be completely inept in the field, and may even be better than some of the other options available by trade or via free agent pick up defensively— but to say that he is better than Chase is something that I really doubt— if he were better than Chase defensively, some team would have given him a major league job despite his liabilities in the hitting department.
Valdez’s bat is so bad (career .233 hitter with .273 OBP, he’s actually having a career year at the plate so far), that no team would start him. Don’t get me wrong, I love Utley and would far prefer to have him, and I am no fan of Exxon. I just think you’ve been pretty heavy on the doom and gloom, and while it does suck to lose Ut and Peanuthead to injuries for any significant time, I think Valdez and Castro can do just enough to keep the ship afloat until they’re both back, hopefully, in a few weeks.
I just want to know what baseball related groundhog keeps seeing it’s shadow and sentencing us to 6 more weeks of Exxon…
That being said, he has grown on me— I no longer want him DFA’ed ASAP. I just want the Phillies to get healthy enough that he can go to the bench, pinch hit, and play on day games after night games.
Valdez career fielding % at 2B:
MLB = 1.000, 0 errors
Minors = .981, 9 errors in 487 chances
Utley
MLB = .981, 85 errors in 4520 chances
Minors = .975, 38 errors in 1529 chances
It’s pretty close, as Valdez’s sample size is small. Utley was never considered a strong fielder (hence they tried to move him to 3rd in the minors), he’s gotten better, but it was never his calling card.
If you say so
I just want to know what deal Valdez made with the Devil to manage to become an every day member of the Phillies organization, major league edition.
Error rates are such a small part of fielding evaluation. Utley is the best second baseman in baseball (as schmenkman linked to) because he gets to balls that others don’t. Much of that is positioning. He’s heads and shoulders above other second basemen, despite what you might have thought about him when he was in the minors.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 1, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Somebody once said about errors that part of why some of the best defensive players get tagged for so many errors is the fact that they manage to reach balls that ordinary fielders don’t— and sometimes, they miss trying to make a play that most fielders simply would not. Thus, error free is not necessarilly better.
Exactly
Imagine a fielder who gets to 10 more balls a year than another one. Of those 10, he makes an error on 5. That will significantly decrease his fielding percentage, but he still will have turned 5 more hits into outs than the other fielder and will be more valuable because of it.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 1, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
You're missing somethign
Utley is so much better than anybody else you have ever seen play second base that it’s not even close. He is quite possibly the best fielder in baseball. There are outfielders that may be better, but the defensive metrics on outfielders are so questionable compared to the infield metrics that the most reliably good fielder in the game is Utley, plain and simple. The agreement across metrics is insane. His positioning is impeccable. Just watch a game on tv and notice how many times you see a ground ball hit to the first base side of the pitcher, and realize when the camera angle changed that Utley was there. It’s insane. The downgrade from Utley to Valdez defensively is larger than the defensive gap between Pujols and Howard.
Agreed— at times it feels like grounding to that side of the field is near impossible— you have entered the portion of the world patrolled by Chase Utley and it is more likely than not going to end with you having grounded out— yesterday watching the game, there were moments with balls grounding into right field where I found myself saying over and over again “Utley would have had that”
Stop the presses!
Jerry Crasnick drops the mother of all bomb shells on Twitter this morning…
Just heard that the Phillies have Dan Haren on their radar. The D-backs are out scouting Phils prospects for possible trade.
I was toying with the idea of doing a post on the possibility of trading for Haren. He seems incredibly undervalued right now — there have been a bunch of stories lately about the D’backs needing to shed payroll, with people pointing to the $25.5 million Haren’s owed over the next two years (with a $15.5 million option with a $3.5 million buyout for 2013), and saying that he’s slipping because of his 4.56 ERA this year. In reality, this is a guy with an xFIP that hasn’t been north of 3.87 in the past 6 years, and he’s still just 29.
If there’s any way to fit him in the payroll this year and next, it’d be a hell of a pickup. I’d start the bidding with everyone not named Brown and Singleton (say, Cosart, Gose, May and a mid-level throw in) and see where that takes us. The idea of a Halladay/Haren/Hamels trio for the next few years makes me positively giddy.
Perhaps Aaran Harang? With Happ possibly headed to the Minors, we may need to get two more pitchers for the starting five Ha-Ha’s.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 1, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
your injuries started later
than ours, but it looks like your catching up quickly. Put Howard and Victorino in some bubble wrap.
Speaking of Valdez (and a possible sign of the Apocolypse)
He is profiled for today’s game preview… I think it is the first time I have ever seen a sub in this position..
Trade Werth?!?
Clicking through the interesting articles on the side of the page led me to this: Almost at the bottom of the page there is a small blurb that says that the Phillies are examining the trade market for Jayson Werth who has expressed his desire to explore the free agent market after the season. I was a little bit shocked to hear this, particularly as it sounds like the Phillies may be turning into sellers, not buyers this July.
Again, to me, this is just good, due diligence. If someone is willing to seriously overpay you for Werth (in terms of prospects), and you feel Dom Brown could play right now with minimal drop-off in production yo need to, at least, hear it out. If the Rays answered RAJ with, “Well, we’ll send you Hellickson, Jennings and Brignac” I would make that trade in a second. If you don’t ask, you’ll walk away with 2 draft picks that may never make it past High A ball. You need to at least ask around to see if anyone will blow your socks off.
Plus, the Phils have a surplus of quality outfielders. Francisco and Gload are, if not superstars, decent corner outfielders, plus Vic in CF and Brown.
The Phils, howwver, are short on infield. Trading Werth for an A-level infielder makes sense to me at this point, given what I have heard about Utley.
True… I just do not want to see a desperation trade, particularly considering that I am not sold on Dominic Brown’s readiness— he is doing well in AAA, but he has been there less than a week, and I would rather see him get a little bit more experience before coming up to the big leagues as a September call up. However, if the trade gives the team a lot of benefit, maybe, maybe it starts to make sense— but it would have to be a great deal.
Obviously, if RAJ trades Werth for Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria just to get infield depth back I would hate him for eternity. That goes without saying.
It isn’t. The fact that Ruben does some stupid things doesn’t mean he’s like to do any old stupid thing. He has a track record, the particular areas where he has blind spots are well known.
I want this team to have good things happen to it, which means that I want to believe that RAJ will make smart decisions. However, because he has a history of some questionable ones and a short enough track record that I am not sure that all of the blind spots have been found, I am very cautious about him.
Exactly. The injury spate this year is unfortunate, but if RAJ learns the right lessons about not overpaying or extending for bit players, it could pay long-term dividends that might be say, 6 months late, but at least shouldn’t replicate in this coming off-season. A Werth deal not unlike the one the Indians made for Lee is one that might not cost all that much in terms of short term production AND could help out in the long term.
There are a few questions that would need to be answered and a few statements to be considered to determine if a trade is worthwhile:
1) How valuable is Werth compared to a replacement (Francisco or Mayberry, for example)?
a. Werth’s WAR this year is 2.1, compared to his average of 2.4 Francisco’s a -0.2 this year, 0.7 average. Mayberry was a -0.2 last year. So, Werth to the other outfielders would be worth between 1.5 and 2.5 wins.
2) What can we get in return, compared to what we already have?
3) Remember, Werth has no value to us this off-season, since he’s a free agent. He only has value for the pursuit of a ring this year; players we get in return may have multi-year value.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
