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Around SBN: UFC 146 Predictions

Stat Notes - July 10

Wow -- that was fun. 

It appears the Phillies are officially past their scoring troubles: 

 
  G OPS R/G
through 5/17: 37 .815 5.73
5/18-6/15: 25 .601 2.52
6/16-on: 23 .777 5.78


RHP vs. LHP opponents 
I always thought that opponents wanted to throw lefties at the Phillies due to their lefty-heavy lineup, but they've faced fewer lefties than the league average this year:
League: 27% of PA's against LHPs
Phils: 25% of PA's

They did face more than their share in 2009:
League: 25% of PA's
Phils: 28%

I was also under the impression that the Phillies don't hit as well against lefties, but that hasn't been the case, either last year or this year (R/27 is runs scored per 27 outs):

2010   R/27 OPS
vs. RHP   4.97 .733
vs. LHP   5.38 .767
2009   R/27 OPS
vs. RHP   5.19 .779
vs. LHP   5.77 .787


Howard's Left-Right split
After the walk-off against lefty Arthur Rhodes, Howard's splits are now this (the league average is for left-handed batters):

  AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K K% AVG OBP SLG OPS League Avg
vs. RHP 225 40 72 11 4 11 45 20 50 22% .320 .379 .551 .930 .755
vs. LHP 113 15 29 4 0 6 20 6 35 31% .257 .298 .451 .749 .690


The .181 differential in OPS is the lowest of his career:

  Right Left Split
2005 1.041 .421 .620
2006 1.164 .922 .242
2007 1.072 .826 .246
2008 .967 .745 .222
2009 1.088 .654 .434
2010 .930 .749 .181

His .870 overall OPS is right where it was on average in 2007-2009 through game 85 (.864).  His average ending OPS for those 3 years was .930.

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Comments

Display:

but...

Ryan Howard can’t hit lefties!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 10, 2010 6:38 AM EDT reply actions  

Arthur Rhodes would beg to differ with you on that!

by dannijd on Jul 10, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think WC was making fun of that opinion…

by schmenkman on Jul 11, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh my God. You really are a professional joke assassin.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 11, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

You might as well throw up the Matt S bat signal, WC.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's reassuring

I think we tend to forget how much better Howard hits in the second half of the season – or at least he gets more grief for not doing better than he does in the first half of most seasons.

by phillyinportland on Jul 11, 2010 3:56 AM EDT reply actions  

The unfortunate flip side to Howard’s newfound smaller platoon split is that he’s not tattooing righthanders to the same degree that he has throughout his career. His ISO is down to “just” .231 against them this year (compared to an absurd career mark of .340), with his wOBA sitting at .394 on the year (compared to his career .427). I’m remembering what Joe Sheehan rightly wrote about him during last year’s NLDS:

Ryan Howard is the best left-handed batter in baseball against right-handed pitching. There is no one better than him, no one. He hits for average (.319 in 2009, with a .339 BABIP) and power (.372 ISO, with an extra-base hit every six at-bats) and posts an acceptable walk rate (about one UIBB in ten PA) for a very good OBP of .395. The specifics have bounced around a bit from year to year, but his 2009 numbers against northpaws are a good match for his career numbers: .307/.409/.661, .338 BABIP, about a 10 percent UIBB rate. The only hitter you might prefer at the plate with a right-handed pitcher on the mound in Albert Pujols, although the 2009 version of Joe Mauer is in the discussion as well. Howard is simply a devastating force against righties, one of the very best in memory at hitting them.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2010 9:58 AM EDT reply actions  

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