Most Valuable Phils All Time
by dbeach13 on Jul 13, 2010 2:42 PM EDT
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Based on a recent post on AN, I wondered how the current Phils stars compare to their all time greats.
1. Mike Schmidt - 108.3
2. Robin Roberts - 67.8
3. Ed Delahanty - 67.0
4. Steve Carlton - 63.5
5. Pete Alexander - 54.6
6. Richie Ashburn - 52.3
7. Sherry Magee - 47.6
8. Bobby Abreu - 46.6
9. Roy Thomas - 39.7
10. Billy Hamilton -39.4
11. Chase Utley - 37.1 (fangraphs says his WAR is 42.3)
Among current Phils:
1. Utley - 37.1
2. Rollins - 29.9
3. Howard - 20.1
4. Hamels - 14.1
5. Werth - 12.6
6. Victorino - 12.0
*It surprised me how many players who have been retired for close to a century made the list, I guess that's what happens when you're the "oldest continous, one name, one-city francise in all pro-American sports (1883)"
*Bobby Abreu's career as a Phil was worth more than the combined Phil careers of Howard, Werth, and Victorino combined.
*When considering WAR/Plate Appearance, Werth is well ahead of Howard (0.007 WAR per PA to 0.0057), but both are well behind Utley (0.009). I suppose UZR and the position adjustment is not kind to Howard. It'll be interesting follow Werth's vs. Howard's WAR over the next few years as a rough way to evaluate Amaro (assuming that Werth leaves for more green).
*It'll be interesting to see if Hamels is able to pass Howard one day, and how high Utley can climb on the all time list. I'm hopeful he can get into the top 5 overall, and in the top 3 of position players. If we're real lucky maybe even second all time?
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right on
Thanks for posting this.
Just goes to show how badly underrated/underappreciated Abreu was during his tenure here. It’s not his fault that his teams routinely ran the likes of Robert Person, Andy Ashby, and Randy Wolf out as #1 starters.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Pardon my ignorance but is this a cumulative number (the WAR) number relative to games played for the franchise or a standardized number that allows comparison regardless of games played for the phillies?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 13, 2010 3:18 PM EDT reply actions
yeah
it’s cumulative, so those players with more PA or IP are more likely to be on the list (and thus why we don’t see Roy Halladay on it). Baseball reference also includes IP and PA along with WAR so you could calculate the standardized number if you’d like.
So utley could get as high as 2 or 3 on this list? Seems fitting
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 13, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
He could make it to #1, but it would require exposure to gamma radiation.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 13, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Then he really could just don a cape and be done with it.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
But when he gets angry he destroys the stadium
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 13, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Out of curiosity, I went ahead and divided those numbers by seasons played for the above 11 names, then reshuffled them…
1. Pete Alexander – 6.8
2. Billy Hamilton – 6.6
3. Mike Schmidt – 6.0
4. Bobby Abreu – 5.2
5. Ed Delahanty – 5.2
6. Robin Roberts – 4.8
7. Chase Utley – 4.6
8. Richie Ashburn – 4.4
9. Sherry Magee – 4.3
10. Steve Carlton – 4.2
11. Roy Thomas – 4.0
Of course, that’s just a rough approximation, because for some players it essentially only includes peak years (e.g. Hamilton), while for others it includes partial seasons (e.g. Utley), and for others periods of substantial decline (e.g. Schmidt). I’m sure the best way to do it would be to extrapolate for whatever a season’s worth of plate appearances is for a hitter, and adjust for only full seasons pitched for pitchers, but I sure as hell don’t have time to do that!
Anyway, thanks for the Fanpost, dbeach13, good stuff.
Utley's got more WAR/season than Lefty?
Holy shit. I knew he was good, but damn. And Abreu ahead of Roberts and tied with Big Ed?
Wouldn’t old favorite Dick Allen get into the top ten on WAR/year with the Phillies?
Thanks for posting this, by the way.
by phillyinportland on Jul 14, 2010 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, didn’t see this until now.
Dick Allen is actually tied with Chase at 37.1 WAR, which across 9 seasons gives him an “average” WAR of 4.1. Virtually all of that comes from his bat, too, as Total Zone didn’t think much of his fielding at all (no matter where he played).
WAR
I have very little knowlege of the calculations used in WAR, just understand the general concept as wins above replacement. I realize that fielding plays a role in the total WAR and, regarding Dick Allen, I know his WAR would suffer when his fielding was figured in. I saw him play third and first and he was never reliable at either position. The Phillies also tried him in left field and, if I remember correctly, he made Greg Luzinski look like Willie Mays.
Given that Allen’s production was 37.1 WAR I’m just curious if in your calculations there is a minimum number of games played to qualify as a season. With Allen, he played 8 full seasons, 1964-69 & 1975-76, plus 10 games in September 1963.
These stats are interesting but they often lead to more questions/observations. Such as, if Bobby Abreu’s WAR/yr was 5.2 for 9 years and if Yunel Escobar’s WAR last year was 5.5, does that mean Abreu was the near-equivalent of Yunel Escobar in 2009? Good year aside, Escobar with 14 HRs, 76 RBI and 5 SB does not sound anything like the Abreu who put up 20/100/30 in those three categories. Sounds like apples & oranges rather than any sort of equivalent value.
by phillyinportland on Jul 18, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Abreu is a RF, Escobar is a SS.
I imagine the different defensive positions add some value to Escobar’s WAR?
Yup.
And, phillyinportland, as I noted above, I was only using “seasons played” as a rough proxy. The fact that Allen only played in 10 games in his first year, plus his struggles with the leather, mean that he was a really, really valuable hitter throughout his time in Philly. The “4.1 WAR” is really just shorthand for a more complex story.
I didn’t mean to be a nitpicker, just curious about how the seasons were figured. WAR is a complex statistic.
by phillyinportland on Jul 18, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
as per fan graphs
That’s why we prefer a defensive position adjustment. The position adjustment scale we use is as follows:
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
As I understand it
You divide these by 10 to determine the WAR adjustment (10 runs = 1 win)
RF -0.75 WAR
SS +0.75 WAR
cool stuff thanks
I kind of wonder how Baseball Reference did their calculations for the older guys. I’m sure the defense/UZR data for them has to be pretty unreliable.
Pretty sure they use Total Zone, a system Sean Smith came up with that approximates defensive value based on play-by-play data. I have no idea how it works, and the obvious disadvantage is that it’s not nearly as accurate as +/- or UZR, but the advantage is that it can come up with defensive numbers for all players in the Retrosheet era.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 13, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Dick Allen recently said in an interview that Roberts was hands down a better player than Mike Schmidt. My gut reaction was the think he was crazy, and the numbers further prove him wrong. Big suprise.
The WAR is a great stat
But Hamels has a WS MVP award .
Steve Carlton won almost 50% of the games for the Phillz 1 year didn’t he?
The Phillz are a .650 WP with Rollinds in the line up.
dose that account for anything?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 15, 2010 8:06 PM EDT reply actions
On a side note
good list to be on
by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 15, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Abreu
In your post, you mention that Abreu has more WAR than Howard, Werth, and Victorino combined— how does his career length here compare to the combined career lengths of those three players?
Abreu – 15 seasons, 2040 games, 8807 plate appearances, 17035.2 innings in the field
Good Cerberus – 19 seasons, 2255 games, 9469 plate appearances, 18632.1 innings in the field
Components:
Howard – 7 seasons, 820 games, 3527 plate appearances, 6969 innings in the field
Utley – 8 seasons, 963 games, 4129 plate appearances, 8012.2 innings in the field
Werth – 4 seasons, 472 games, 1813 plate appearances, 3651.2 innings in the field
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Ack – I did Abreu’s full career. Abreu with Philly:
9 seasons, 1353 games, 5885 plate appearances, 9076 innings in the field
Honor is no substitute for victory.
vic
2668 PAs. So about 8000 total combined PAs for howard/vic/werth and 5885 for Abreu. So it’s not the fairest comparison since Abreu has a lot more PAs for the phils than any of the other three.
My guess that in a few years Howard will have about 75% of the WAR of what Abreu has, and Victorino will have about half of his WAR.
Yeah, I misread that as Utley instead of Victorino (I don’t even have an excuse…Friday Sillies?). As of today (post-weekend series), Vic has 2714 PAs and 5,104 innings in the field. The Vic/Howard/Werth trifecta as of today:
17 seasons, 1992 games, 8072 PAs, 15758 innings in the field. They should hit equal-to-Abreu totals for games, PAs, and innings by the end of this season, since they need a combined 48 games, 735 PAs, and 1277.2 innings.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
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