Braves Acquire Out-Maker Alex Gonzalez From Toronto Blue Jays
The Braves acquired Alex Gonzalez from the Toronto Blue Jays today. Yes, Gonzalez has power, as he has 17 home runs already this year. But, he also makes outs in over 70% of his plate appearances . . . not just this year, but for his career too. The Braves traded away Yunel Escobar, who is having a down year and has less power, but has a career .368 OBP.
Sure, it's upsetting to see the Braves lineup get some additional power, but in balance, I'm actually pretty excited to see them add such a spectacular outmaker to their lineup. If this is the Phillies' chief rival's big mid-season addition, I'll take it.
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Philly Friar’s take in a fanpost I didn’t see until just now:
Surprising 5-player deal here between the Braves and Jays, with Frank Wren cutting bait with his 27-year old starting shortstop in exchange for Alex Gonzalez and a pair of minor leaguers. Jo-Jo Reyes also went to the Jays.
Escobar was having a rough season at the plate and has always been in Bobby Cox’s doghouse, but he was worth 4.3 WAR last year and is still one of the more talented shortstops in baseball. Gonzalez is a good glove man and has shown uncharacteristic power with the stick this year (.238 ISO), but he’s a 33-year old career .248/.294/.402 hitter who has slowed down immensely after a hot April.
About the only thing that keeps me from being completely ecstatic about this deal is one of the prospects the Braves got in return: Tim Collins, a southpaw listed at 5’7" (but thats probably generous) who looks destined for a career as one of the top left-handed relievers in baseball. Despite not being able to drink for another month, Collins has torn apart Double-A this year (2.40 FIP, 15.3 K/9) and should be a stalwart in the Braves’ bullpen starting next year.
This is a shockingly good deal for Toronto, and a pretty bad one for Atlanta. The numbers sound good for Collins, but it seems to be quite rare for minor league relievers to become good major league relievers; usually the good relievers are guys like Madson who come up as solid relievers with questionable secondary pitches. Going from starter to reliever in the majors usually results in a slight increase in velocity and a decrease in ERA, so often the best candidates for bullpen slots are players who do produce good-not-great results in minor league rotations, whereas AA and AAA closers usually turn out to be useless.
Off the top of my head, Madson, Contreras, Romero, Bastardo, Figueroa, and Mathieson all came into the big leagues as starting pitchers before converting. Not sure about Lidge.
Lidge was an oddball – age 25 was when he made the transition from minors to majors. He had 19 starts and 10 relief appearances in the minors, and 1 start and 5 relief appearances in the majors. That’s his only MLB start of his career. His stats make it look as though he was a middle reliever at age 26, and transitioned to closer at age 27 (2004).
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Given what I’m seeing at TC, I really had no idea that Escobar was so loathed, so replacing him with Gonzalez just straight-up was probably pretty good for the Braves. Agree with PF, those numbers on Collins are astounding, so even if you consider that it’s somewhat of a lottery ticket, the odds are still pretty good he’ll get to the roster. And why not load up on hard-throwing, strikeout-y lefty relievers in the NL East? The other characters are all meh to me at this point.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 14, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems like a brash trade.
Wren must be thinking about striking while the iron is hot, but this has got to affect the future of the team at SS. Am I missing something here? Is there a SS waiting in the wings somewhere?
A-Gonz’s contract is up after this year.
From what I can tell, this guy is Atlanta’s best SS prospect. Doesn’t look all that special.
They also got this guy in the trade. And they drafted shortstops with the 35th and 70th picks in this year’s draft.
For next year, I guess they’re either going to acquire someone or use Infante as a stopgap. I can’t imagine that they’d extend Gonzalez if he’s up this year.
Before the season, Sickels graded Pastornicky as a C prospect, but Hardball Times ranked him #4 in the Blue Jays system and said he has “top-of-the-order potential.”
FSU's press release on Pasternicky when he signed a Letter of Intent there:
Pastornicky has played at both the shortstop and pitcher positions for the Pendleton School on the IMG Academies campus since his freshman year and looks to hit leadoff in 2008. This past summer he hit .433 for the Florida Bombers of the Connie Mack League where he collected 52 hits in 120 at-bats. Pastornicky collected five home runs and 10 doubles while driving in 26 runs. He was 25-of-27 in the stolen base category and posted a .980 fielding percentage. He is the son of former Major Leaguer and current Kansas City Royals Florida scout Cliff Pastornicky.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
our top two SS prospects are Matt Lipka, who went #35 as you mentioned, and an Internat’l sign Edward Salcedo. Both are 18 and further off than Mycal Jones.
"Infield hits are sexy, because they require technique."
-Ichiro
by VivaLosBravos on Jul 14, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Discussion on John Sickels’ site:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/7/14/1569401/yunel-escobar-traded-to-toronto
JP Ricciardi thinks Atlanta took the Jays in this deal. Click here and scroll down to the bottom of the post.
Ricciardi, of course, is a completely unbiased analyst here.
I’ve had Glaus for a while now. Eventually, you get used to it.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 14, 2010 5:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But I thought Cerberus (ez?) was slowly melting away, to be replaced by the planned Phillies starting fielders (with the exception of Valdez, who will always be with us)
by dannijd on Jul 14, 2010 4:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
the ez comes from the player you mentioned
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Jul 14, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it's worth...
The Talking Chop guys seem to love it, though I’ll admit I haven’t read the comments. But there are words like “proven veteran” and “Qorld Series experience” being thrown around in support of the deal, and little in the way of, you know, substantive numbers.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 14, 2010 4:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Taken from the TC post by gondeee
This is a move the Braves have to make if they’re given the opportunity. They upgrade the weakest position in their lineup, and they didn’t even give up any prospects… just the opposite, they added prospects.
Also,
In the near term they [The Braves] remove the team’s biggest distraction who is also perhaps their biggest unknown from their everyday lineup. And for this year at least they get a hot-hitting shortstop. Gonzalez will replace Yunel in the seventh or eighth spot in the lineup, so adding that kind of free-swinging power to the lineup in a spot where the team was previously getting below replacement level production should be good for a few more runs a week.
Personally, I hope this wasn’t the “Big bat” management was looking for. It looks just like a pawning off of bad players in exchange for a decent one. If it was the “Big bat”, well, that doesn’t matter because Heyward is coming back.
Jason Heyward is the reason that Chuck Norris parks his car in a garage.
Yeah, most of them are quite a bit less pleased with it when you read the comments. As a Phillies fan, this sounds great to me.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 14, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I hadn’t gotten a chance to read the comments, but not everyone’s as pleased with the deal as gondeee.
I get that Escobar hasn’t always given supreme effort, and that he’s been a downright terrible hitter this year. But it just seems like a classic case of selling low to me, with the Jays selling high on Gonzalez on the flip side. I know I’d be upset if the Phils made this same deal, no matter how much Escobar annoyed me — it’s just a bad deal from a pure value perspective.
The Braves can now boast to the Phillies and the Mets that they will open the second half of the season with three players that haven’t been in their starting lineup for weeks — Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, and Nate McLouth.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 14, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
We can boast the same thing when Utley, Polanco, and (eventually) Happ come back.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Inigo Montoya: You are wonderful!
Man in Black: Thank you; I’ve worked hard to become so.
Inigo Montoya: I admit it, you are better than I am.
Man in Black: Then why are you smiling?
Inigo Montoya: Because I know something you don’t know.
Man in Black: And what is that?
Inigo Montoya: I… am not left-handed.
[Moves his sword to his right hand and gains an advantage]
Man in Black: You are amazing.
Inigo Montoya: I ought to be, after 20 years.
Man in Black: Oh, there’s something I ought to tell you.
Inigo Montoya: Tell me.
Man in Black: I’m not left-handed either!
[Moves his sword to his right hand and regains his advantage]
by taco pal on Jul 14, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wish our boasting did not have to wait till next year…
by dannijd on Jul 14, 2010 8:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wish our boasting did not have to wait till next year…
by dannijd on Jul 14, 2010 8:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not often you see a double post 15 minutes apart – love the mobile phones
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 14, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I just read another blog where a Braves fan was slamming the Phillies and saying how the Phils have no offense and that the Braves are stacked (and that Roy Halladay is overrated, too), so nothing surprises me anymore. BTW, the Braves are a virtual lock to win the division, so sayeth this fan.
I may not know everything there is to know about the game and sometimes I talk out of school, but morons like this need to be stopped. Can’t there be a test to join a blog?
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Baseball fans are overrated. In my opinion, out of 100 fans, only about 30 are true fans. The rest were just sucked into the sport by generational bias or media indoctrination.
Poets are like baseball pitchers. Both have their moments. The intervals are the tough things. ~Robert Frost
that is not representing us Braves fans very well. I personally hate the Phillies, but it’s just a sport so don’t take that personally, it’s all in fun, and I think they’re a good team. there is no way Doc is overrated.
I agree, there are way too many morons on the interwebs. It’s annoying.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Jul 14, 2010 6:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Meh, we all have them—ours litter philly.com message boards and the like. It just never fails to shock me how many knuckle draggers there out in the world, wandering free with ready access to guns and power tools. I know it shouldn’t, but it does.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
zOMG HRs+ArbyEyezzz Veteran Clubhouse Presence whaaaaaaaa whaaaat!?!
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 14, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Every single one of Gonzalez's homers this year has come at a park with a HR factor greater than 1
Gonzalez’s home runs, adjusted for park factor
1 @ TEX – 0.78 HR
3 @ BAL – 2.47 HR
2 @ CHW – 1.36 HR
1 @ TBR – 0.90 HR
1 @ PHI – 0.77 HR
1 @ NYY – 0.67 HR
8 @ TOR – 6.34 HR
Total HR at a neutral park – 13.29
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I bet he’s looking forward to CBP then.
"Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward."
METS: My Entire Team Sucks.
Phillies Baseball: Established - 2008
by Scott Coleman on Jul 14, 2010 5:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Now that I see it, I’ve got much less problem with the predictable CBP shot than I do with the signature. What does that even mean?
You mean the third line? It’s just noting the fact that Philadelphia lacks the rich baseball history and deep-running fan support that Atlanta has always enjoyed, of course. Why, everyone knows Atlanta is one of the epicenters of baseball history, where the tradition of passionate fandom has been handed down from father to son for generations. They were drawing five-digit crowds as early as 1991!
by taco pal on Jul 14, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Reminds me of Pete Rose’s line when the 1980 Phillies held an open workout before the season started and about 4,000 people showed up:
“Looks like opening night in Atlanta.”
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 14, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
fact that Philadelphia lacks the rich baseball history and deep-running fan support that Atlanta has always enjoyed
I’m comforted to see you take pride in each of your unprecedented 10,200+ losses.
"Infield hits are sexy, because they require technique."
-Ichiro
by VivaLosBravos on Jul 14, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Your team’s only got 81 losses to go before 10,000 (that is, if you go all the way back to when the Braves were the Boston Red Caps). What do you think of that? I bet you don’t care, because all it really means is that your team’s been around a very long time.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 14, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I still can’t get over that 1887 season myself. That one was particularly tough.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
1897 was pretty bad. Jack Fifield just plain sucked!
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 15, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Ha ha. Yes, these were the correct responses.
For one thing, yes I do take pride in knowing the history of my team. An appreciation of a history of hard times is far superior to Atlanta’s lack of any appreciation of baseball history at all (or for baseball’s present-day, for that matter – it is simply a bad baseball city with bad fans). Also, while we recognize that history, none of us are particularly broken up inside about stuff that happened during, say, the Great Depression.
Interestingly, nearly the entire margin of the Phillies historical sub-.500 record comes from the period between the end of WW1 and the end of WWII. Without that period, the Phillies would be within a few games of .500. FDR may have been an all-time great president but his tenure was terrible for the Phils.
The worst margin, certainly. If you go from 1918 to 1945, the Phillies were 1555-2676-24 during that period, for a 0.365 W%. Excluding those years, the Phillies are 7530-7531-91, for a 0.497 W%, and essentially a 50% W/L split.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
1000+ games under .500
…in under 30 years. Ouch.
In that time frame, they had one season where they were over .500 – 1932, when they went 78-76. By contract, they had five seasons where they were under .300 – 1928, 1939, 1941, 1942, and 1945.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Fangraphs has also pointed out that according to HitTracker Online, 10 out of 17 of Gonzalez’s homers were of the “Just Enough” variety. He may keep hitting long fly balls, but there’s no evidence that they’ll keep carrying two feet over the fence rather than dying on the warning track.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 14, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Negative WARs
Not to thread-jack, but I thought the following challenge was interesting but not interesting enough for a FanPost:
As of 7/15, name the 5 Phillies position players with a Negative WAR (no peeking!)
without peeking, it’s gotta be:
Ibanez, Castro, Valdez, Dobbs, Schneider
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 14, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I checked Valdez recently and he was just on the positive side. So swap him out for Francisco and that’s my guess.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Jul 14, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I freaking love your handle and avatar.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 14, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Schneider’s a positive. Just barely, but all four catchers are positive (Ruiz, Schneider, Hoover, and Sardinha).
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Yeah.
Some fun surprises in there. Valdez has the 8th highest WAR among position players (followed closely by Schneider).
And Spoilt Victorian Child almost guesses right.
So far 4 have been named: Francisco, -0.2; Ibanez, -0.3, Dobbs, -0.5, and Castro, -1.1.
The fifth is not Schneider or Valdez.
Also interesting to learn who has the second-highest WAR among position players (Utley is the team-leader by more than one game).
Or Gload, duh. Forgot about him. Homers but just about nothing else.
by philsandthrills on Jul 14, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just thinking offensive-wise, forgot about the whole, center fielder being much more valuable part.
by philsandthrills on Jul 14, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Polly maybe?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 14, 2010 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
These were in response to who has the 2nd highest WAR.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 14, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Poor attempt at vertically associating posts, my bad.
by philsandthrills on Jul 15, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
In that case, hmmm…
Definitely Castro and Dobbs. Are we sure Ibanez has a negative WAR? He’s posting a solid OBP if nothing else, so I’m not entirely sure… but then again, if we’re talking position players still on the team, it has to be Ibanez by process of elimination.
So Castro, Dobbs, Francisco, Gload and Ibanez: final answer. Then I’m checking.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 14, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Without wanting to give anything away, I forgot that it was Ibanez’s walk rate that was solid, not his OBP. Just so I don’t look like an idiot.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 14, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
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