The Virtues of Don't-Swing: Phillies 4, Cubs 1
by dajafi on Jul 17, 2010 4:35 PM EDT
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PrintIn striking out the side to finish Friday's 4-3 win over the Phillies, Cubs closer Carlos Marmol looked literally unhittable. About 24 hours later, it wasn't hits that did him in, but wildness; Marmol walked five Phillies in a four-run ninth that lifted the visitors to a desperately needed 4-1 win and wiped away eight innings' worth of futility at the plate and on the bases.
Through those eight innings, it looked as if the Phils were going to absorb their ninth shutout in 90 games, and 45th in which they scored three runs or fewer. Cubs starter Randy Wells wasn't exactly dominant, allowing seven hits and two walks in his seven innings of work, but three Phillies outs on the bases--two by Shane Victorino--and an inability to produce a hit with men in scoring position had him in line for a win. Setup man Sean Marshall was strong in the eighth, striking out Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez after walking Ryan Howard.
Meanwhile, Cole Hamels seemed bound to fall below .500 despite another very strong outing. Hamels held Chicago off the board through six innings, but surrendered a leadoff double to Cubs rookie Starlin Castro in the seventh. Two batters later, he came around to score on a Ryan Theriot squeeze that went for a single when Hamels lobbed a throw to first and Wilson Valdez was slow to cover. Hamels finished with his fourth straight start of at least seven innings and three runs or fewer allowed, dropping his season ERA to 3.63.
Still, it took not only Marmol's implosion but a highly implausible defensive lapse for the Phils to rally. Greg Dobbs led off the ninth pinch-hitting for Carlos Ruiz with a flyout to shallow left. Brian Schneider followed, pinch-hitting for Valdez, and drew a walk; with Ruiz already out, Schneider would have to stay in and run, a tactical result that very nearly cost the Phils the game. Ross Gload was the third straight pinch-hitter, for reliever Chad Durbin; after working the count full, he drew his first walk of the season in his 72nd plate appearance. Marmol struck out Victorino, pulling the Cubs within an out of victory--but just-activated Placido Polanco followed with a single to left. As Schneider chugged around third and Tyler Colvin fielded the ball, the game seemed set to end on an out at the plate--but the throw bounced off Cubs catcher Geovany Soto, and the game was tied, with Gload and Polanco advancing to second and third.
At this point, Marmol collapsed, falling behind Jimmy Rollins and bouncing ball four for a wild pitch that scored Gload and moved Polanco to third. After Rollins stole second, Cubs skipper Lou Pinella ordered an intentional walk of Ryan Howard. Marmol worked the count full to Jayson Werth, who fouled off two pitches before taking ball four to force in a third run. Piniella had seen enough, and lifted Marmol for lefty James Russell. Raul Ibanez bounced a ball to the left side... and Russell was late to cover first, losing the race to Ibanez as Rollins scored to make it 4-1. Only a great play by Castro off the bat of Cody Ransom, pinch-hitting for Dobbs, saved two more runs from scoring. In the bottom of the inning, Brad Lidge worked around a two-out walk to nail down his seventh save of the year.
Roy Halladay goes tomorrow night as the Phillies try to finish a split of the four game series.
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I'll take it
I Tweeted during the game that that 9th inning was like the baseball equivalent of “pity sex.”
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Hey hey hey,,,,
Pity sex is still sex
by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 17, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but this was such ugly baseball that pity sex might actually be time released pity for post game itchies and scratchies festivities.
Lol… Not all of today’s baseball was ugly— can Cole pitch that way every day (or at least every fifth day)?
by dannijd on Jul 18, 2010 1:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Would it be totally awful
If I said that I will take a win from this team any way I can get it… Including from the “pity” of the Cubs bullpen (I mean, our bullpen gave them one yesterday, so it is only fair)?
by dannijd on Jul 18, 2010 1:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As opposed to what? Losing?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 18, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I know doc is a long term investment
But I feel like he should be used like Sabathia down the stretch in 08, albeit not quite so extreme. Either way he should pitch every five days even if there’s a rest day, and he should be pulled after 6 innings in case of a big lead
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 17, 2010 5:48 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
i agree. there is no reason that halladay and hamels shouldnt be throwing every fifth day no matter what. the bottom three in the rotation are incredibly shaky. you could get a good outing or an implosion from any of the three anytime they go out there. with the offense being how it is this year we need the two studs out there as much as possible.
I’m totally bummed I didn’t see this 9th inning. Hell. I’m thrilled at the outcome though!!
Plus, I think the Phillies made the right move in bumping Castro off the roster.
I’m assuming his “unconditional release” means the Phillies get rid of him completely at the expense of eating the remainder of his contract, though (yes?). If this is true, perhaps there’s hope that Rubes might do the same with Baez (although I know it’s a lot more money, ugh).
Any money spent on baez is like throwing it in a shitty port-o-let.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 17, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the second ninth inning comeback in recent weeks that I’ve completely missed (the one vs. the Reds was the first).
I watched a replay of that game on Comcast the other day while I was in Philly on vacation. Despite the fact that I knew the Phillies ended up with the win, I still got fed up, cussed at the TV and changed the channel in the 8th inning. Then I realized I know they win and begrudgingly turned it back on.
Considering the money that they owe Castro (I think even the pro-rated was over a million?), I am surprised that he was given his outright release— one would think that they would have at least tried to designate him for assignment. I was very surprised that the Phillies made this move, although I tend to think it was the right one— I had figured that money would talk and that either Dobbs or more likely Ransom would find themselves designated for assignment when Polanco returned. I take this as a sign that at least for a certain amount of money, performance matters???
I, too, hope that they will either DFA or release Baez, but think that the money (and the fact that they are on the hook for another year after this one) will translate to his being given at least the rest of the year to show something, which is a shame considering the bullpen arms that are in AAA (Figueroa comes to mind, although I am sure that there are others who are also more deserving than Baez).
Castro’s contract was only for 1yr / $ 700 K, plus a buy-out of 50 K in 2011, so it’s really not that much of a sunk cost.
At most, it looks like the Phillies are on the hook for something b/w 300-400 K for Castro, which isn’t all that terrible unless you consider that Ruben might have avoided all of this (when he signed both Valdez and Ransom to minor-league contracts).
squeeze
did anyone else have a serious problem with the way the squeeze played out? everyone and their brother knew there was a good chance they were going to do it. the announcers were ready for it. seems like everybody but charlie knew it was coming. they should have pitched out at least once, probably twice. then they show manual and he’s just sitting at the back of the dugout with his arms crossed. i didnt get it at all
Woooooo!
I guess I didn’t put on enough sunscreen because I got a bit of a burn after being out in the scorching sun for three hours (it was SO HOT), but that ninth inning was a lot of fun!
Gonna see Halladay tomorrow. Yay!
2005 Chicago White Sox. 2006 Chicago Rush. 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks. CHAMPIONS.
How were the seats??? You were three rows above the dugout today, right? Enjoy Halladay tomorrow.
by dannijd on Jul 17, 2010 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Six rows above the bullpen. It was fun to be able to see Durbin and Lidge warming up pretty much right in front of me. There were a bunch of other Phillies fans in the area, and we were all yelling stuff like “Yeah Lidge!” “Let’s go!” “Do it!”
2005 Chicago White Sox. 2006 Chicago Rush. 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks. CHAMPIONS.
Sense of relief
That’s what I felt, especially when I saw the replay of the play at the plate in the 9th, where Schneider was a dead duck if Soto holds the ball and gets the tag down. So, once again the team record is six games over .500. It seems like most of the season has been played with records of five, six, or seven games over .500. From their high point of 26-15, they are 22-27 .Since June 1st the team is 20-20.The record hasn’t been better than 7 games over or worse than 2 games over since then. As much as the team has struggled they’ve only had one 5-game losing streak and one that was 4 games long, and those were before the injuries hit hard. My feeling is that the team is treading water right now but that’s not bad considering. I imagine we could find lots of examples of teams that ended up in the postseason that went through an extended period like this. That doesn’t mean things are good or guaranteed to improve, but games like today show that this team doesn’t quit even if they look bad, very bad at times.
On an unrelated note, in a non-celebration of the life and tenure of George Steinbrenner,
Carl Pavano continued his amazing resurgence since escaping from New York. I wonder if he said a little “This one’s for you, George” as he walked off the mound today.
by phillyinportland on Jul 18, 2010 2:58 AM EDT reply actions
After all that...
…Phils are only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card standings. Obviously the goal should be the division, but any scenario that involves a playoff berth is an excellent outcome — and the bottom line is that even through Slumpmas, injuries, and generally meh play, the Phils are right in it.
If Colorado is still leading the WC when they come to CBP for the 4-gamer, we would have an excellent shot at wresting that away. Watching Atlanta meltdown in the 7th and 8th innings last night gave me hope…
by WanderingMoses on Jul 18, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
As of today, San Francisco and ZSt. Louis are in the wild card lead, so a good showing in St. Louis starting tomorrow is just as important to the team’s wildcard chances. Finding out that the Phillies were able to rally and win it yesterday (then watching Atlanta melt down after work) gave me hope.
BTW— The Brewers are crying foul about Atlanta’s pitching after Prince Fielder was hit by pitches twice in as many games. The one last night seemed particularly intentional, as Jonny Venters threw a pitch over Fielder’s head just before hitting him. Both Venters and manager Bobby Cox were ejected for this, and Brewers manager Ken Macha has called for further discipline. Is Atlanta getting beanball happy, or is this just small sample size?
I noticed that on the highlights last night and was struck by how intentional it looked. I wonder, did Fielder do something earlier this year against the Braves or was this some sort of retaliation to another beanball? The umpire yesterday was sure giving Prince a lot of consolation, so I’m guessing he got hit pretty hard. I don’t remember the Braves being prone to beanballs before but times do change.
by phillyinportland on Jul 18, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Was actually watching this at the time. I’d give Venters the benefit of the doubt for the first pitch — appeared to be a breaking ball that just got away from him — but coupled with the second pitch, it’s hard to wonder if there isn’t more there.
I don’t think any further discipline is necessary, though now that today’s game is out of hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chipper got one right in the back.
If this team can make it into the playoffs, with a 1-2 punch of Halladay and Hamels as well as this teams playoff experience, I would venture to say that no one would want to play the Phillies.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I’d play the Phillies with my 17-month old daughter.
Let’s face it: unless they get shutouts, they’re not winning this year. This one was luck, pure and simple.
by Philibuster on Jul 18, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I would hold off on the autopsy until August 15th or so. And at that point if they are down double digits.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 18, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Playoffs are a crapshoot, maing. Look no further than the 2006 Cardinals to see that “anything can happen.”
by PhillyFriar on Jul 18, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish crapshoots were more like baseball playoffs. I’d win me some money then I’d guess. Baseball used to be full of conventional wisdom that was never true or was once true but now isn’t. Stuff like pitching is 75 percent of the game and expeience counts more than anything else in the post-season and all that jive.
Today, new school thinkers are starting to develop a conventional wisdom of their own that is sometimes true but often not. I think this is one of these cases.
The line everyone always uses it seem is just what PhillyFriar wrote — just look at the 2006 Cardinals.
I contend that 2006 was a very unusual year and most of the time the best team wins. If not the best team one of the two best for sure. The Yankees last season; the Phils the year before; Boston the year before that.
There’s no way to actually prove or disprove this. And you can’t go by best team over the 162 games I don’t think. But if you ask yourself who the best teams are at the end of a season, I believe the World Champ is in the top two at least.
Yeah the Redbirds won in 2006 and they weren’t nearly the best team. But The White Sox won in ’05 and they won 99 regular season games and the Red Sox in ’04 won 98.
I don’t think the playoffs are all that much like a crap shoot unless you’re talking about a craps game with loaded dice.
The Phillies did not have MLB’s best record in 2008, nor did the Red Sox in 2007, nor did the Cardinals in 2006, nor did the White Sox in 2005, nor did the Red Sox in 2004, nor did the Marlins in 2003, nor did the Angels in 2002, nor did the Diamondbacks in 2001, nor did the Yankees in 2000, nor did the Yankees in 1999. For what it’s worth.
By “crapshoot”, people do not mean that every series is literally 50/50, like a coin flip. What they mean is just that the better team’s odds of winning are much, much lower than their margin of talent alone would indicate.
I know. That’s why I said this is difficult to prove or disprove. You can’t just look at final records to figure out the best team in my view. You have to look at the season and see what happened throughout. The Phillies were a much better team at the end of 2008 than they were at the beginning. They had added Blanton and dropped Eaton and had given Werth a bigger role on the team and minimalized Jenkins. Hamels was hot. Many of their hitters were hot. Even Ruiz was hitting better than he had all year.
I think the Phillies were the best team in MLB at the end of 2008 (heading into the playoffs). They had power and speed and got on base and had very good starting pitching and a great closer (for that year) and other very fine bullpen pitchers who were pretty much all going good at the end of the year.
Total wins is a good measure of how a team did over 162 games. But it isn’t always — or even often a good measure of who has the best team going into the playoffs. The quality of a team changes as the year progresses. I believe the Yanikees were the best team at the end of 2009 and the Phils were the best at the end of 2008. In fact, I think the World Series winner is in the top two at least nearly every year. The Cardinals were a big exception.
What they mean is just that the better team’s odds of winning are much, much lower than their margin of talent alone would indicate.
I disagree with this. In 2006 it was true. I don’t think it is most years. The Cubs and Rays won 97 games in ’08 but they were not better than the Phils of September/October. The Phils did not have Matt Stairs or Joe Blanton or Werth as a regular all year. They did have Adam Eaton in their starting rotation and Geoff Jenkins playing a pretty big role on the team in the first half of the year.
The Phils in ’08 were 40-16 from August 15th to the end of the season. They were the best team in MLB at the end of 2008 in my view. I think this is true nearly every year. The 2006 Cardinals were a big exception to the rule in my view.
It’s much easier to say “Well, they might not have had the best record, but they were clearly one of the best teams” after the fact. No one was picking the Phillies heading into the playoffs that year for a simple reason: they weren’t one of the 2 best teams in the regular season, as you’re claiming. They simply weren’t.
The 2006 Cardinals are obviously an extreme, but the point still stands…
What they mean is just that the better team’s odds of winning are much, much lower than their margin of talent alone would indicate.
General agreement
Teams that win a World Series, especially in a format that requires three rounds of victories, are by definition the ones that are playing best in October. How that relates to how those teams played all season or even in the month or two leading up to October can vary considerably. I think one reason the 2006 Cardinals stand out as highly unusual is that not only did they have a lousy regular season record but they also played pretty badly at the end of the season, leading them to be underdogs from the start of the playoffs.
Another example that comes to mind is the Marlins team that won in 2003. Like the 1997 team, they were also unexpected winners but came into the playoffs in different ways – in 1997 they had a losing record in September while in 2003 they stormed in with a great finish. Everybody knows the Cubs blew a 3-1 lead in the NLCS that year, but few remember the Marlins had a better record than the Cubs. But to say that they were one of the two best teams at the end of the season means you’re going by the playoffs, not some overall concept of best. There were possibly five other teams who were “better” than the Marlins that October but the Marlins ended as champs so they are presumed to be the best. (My five would include the Giants, who finished just as strongly as the Marlins, the Cubs (who beat a strong Braves team in the NLDS), the Athletics, the Red Sox, and the Yankees. If things had played out differently any one of them could have been World Champions – and that’s where PhillyFriar’s concept of a crapshoot does make sense, because no one knows on October 1st which team is going to get or stay hot.
by phillyinportland on Jul 20, 2010 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with this. The problems that this team has—inconsistency in the back half of the rotation, some real suspect arms in the bullpen, fatigue on the part of the lineup regulars—all are minimized in short series, and while I’m not generally big on “experience” arguments, I think there might be something to it if the Phils played, say, the Padres in October.
Also add in the fact that the Padres are dreadful offensively and only have one legitimate front end starter, and I’d sign off on that matchup right now. Hypothetically, of course.
Right about now, I would sign off on an October matchup with anyone— it would mean that we are there, and if we get there, anything can happen!
Did anyone notice the Lehigh Valley box score last night? The Iron Pigs won on the strength of three homers – two by Brian Bocock, and one by Joe Savery as a pinch hitter. WTF.
He could be a PHLOOGY. A new pitcher/batter hybrid thingy I just invented.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Okay, I forgot about him, luckily he pitched right-handed so I’m still gonna take credit for coining PHLOOGY.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
PHLOOGY. I like it.
(Still think the odds against it are incredible, but doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting vehemently.)
When you think about it, it could be a very useful tactical thing for a manager. Instead of double switching, for instance, a manager could bring his PHLOOGY in mid-inning to get a tough out and then leave him in to bat, saving a pinch-hitter for later in the game.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Could use Rick Ankiel that way – if he could still pitch.
by phillyinportland on Jul 20, 2010 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions
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