The Good Phight: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Along The Olentangy for Ohio State Fans!

Some Phillies Links for You, July 19, 2010: James' Streak Ends, Brown's Town, Lee's Haul

Jayson Agonistes (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

More photos » Nam Y. Huh - AP

Jayson Agonistes (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Phillies' Francisco seeing time against lefties
What could this possibly mean?

Halladay gets knocked around in Phillies' loss to Cubs

"I think you get a second wind later in the season, but I think, at this point, for me, it's the most important time to monitor my work in between and really keep that fresh feeling. I think this is the part where it can be a grind. I think you hit August, late September, you get that second wind. For me, it's always been that way."


You know, I'm not going to say anything here. But there are products you can buy at the drugstore that will help with that.

Prospects in Lee deal look to prove worth
NOOO! They're all slop!

Bob Ford: Phils' biggest obstacle is themselves

Beyond Hudson, Atlanta's staff includes talented young Jair Jurrjens who is just back from the disabled list and carrying around a 4.75 ERA. Kris Medlen had a good first half of the season, but he has just 15 career starts and how he will hold up is unknown. There is Derek Lowe, who won Sunday to go 10-8, but with another ERA over four runs per game. There is Tommy Hanson, also just above .500 and another ERA over four runs. Perhaps on a given day, with one given game to win, Tim Hudson would be a problem, but there isn't much separating the starting staff from that of the Phillies.

Seriously?

Phillies Notes: Kendrick must show he's a starter
Yeah, really.

Worley, R-Phils blank Trenton
Vance Worley's recent surge could make him a very valuable bullpen piece or trade chip.

BlueClaws bats go quiet twice Sunday versus Intimidators
Outfielder Jiwan James' team-record 23 game hitting streak came to an end in the abbreviated second game of Sunday's doubleheader.

Phillies Notes: Hamels pitching like an ace again for Phillies

"Hamels has always been a good pitcher," manager Charlie Manuel said. "The season he had last year, that was just part of him getting more experience. Hamels is a big-game pitcher. He has proven it. I don't know how much more he has to prove it."

Nice to hear that Charlie has faith and confidence in Cole.

What can Brown do for Phils' outfield? A lot

Every indication is he would like to trade Werth, who is eligible for free agency after the season, and who can possibly bring a starting pitcher in a trade. It beats letting Werth leave as a free agent for nothing besides supplemental draft picks.

Um, depending on who you trade for and who you would draft, those "supplemental picks" can be quite valuable.

The Fightins - Somebody tase this puppet
What a friggin' bizarre scene.

Star-divide

Mets 4, Giants 3: Rodriguez Blows It, Davis Wins It - Amazin' Avenue
Johan Santana was terrific, K-Rud blows it in the ninth, letting the Giants tie it up, Mets score in the top of the 10th, K-Rud allows two baserunners but then "locks it down..." and gets the win. Time to abandon W-L record.

Braves Bash Brewers 11-6 Behind BMac - Talking Chop
Someone in the NL East can take care of the medicore NL Central teams on the road.

0 recs  |  Comment 80 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from The Good Phight

Rats: Braves 4, Phillies 1

May 2010 by dajafi - 12 comments

The Cure: Phillies 2, Braves 0

Apr 2010 by dajafi - 42 comments

BANDBOX!: Phillies 9, Braves 4

Sep 2009 by dajafi - 9 comments

Eyre Force: Phillies 3, Braves 2

Aug 2009 by dajafi - 10 comments

Comments

Display:

Also in the Mets game...

The Giants won. Or, at least, everybody but Phil Cuzzi thought so.

McCovey Chronicles’ game recap title is pretty funny: “Giants sweep Mets, lose one-game series against home plate umpire.”

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 8:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I saw that play live, it was a horrendous call.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yet another example of umpires outliving their usefulness.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Quick question...

One of the biggest reasons people throw out there for not wanting to trade Werth is losing that powerful right handed bat in an already left hand heavy lineup…but with Werth struggling as much as he is, is losing his bat really that awful? Especially if you can get a starter in return? Obviously it depends on who that starter is, and like W.C said, who we get in a trade as opposed to who we draft with the supplemental picks makes all the difference but it seems obvious to me that trading Werth is not nearly as painful as an idea as it was say 2 months ago.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

My reservation with trading Werth is twofold. First, I don’t relish the idea of tossing Dom into the midst of a pennant race. That’s a lot of pressure for a kid with just 70 at bats above Double-A, and I still think it’s not the best thing for his long-term development.

Second, I’ll admit it — I simply don’t trust Amaro to not F the whole thing up. He’ll probably trade Werth straight up for Vazquez, or underestimate the value of the supplemental picks he’d get for just letting Werth walk, or something. There’s no way it would end well.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I completely agree with you regarding Brown. And I have said repeatedly that I would only call up Brown as part of a September call up to get some at bats here and there, certainly not to be a starter. But then again come September this team may be out of it anyway? Who knows.

As for your second point, I absolutely despise RAJ, always have and so the thought of him botching a Werth trade much like he did the Lee trade would not shock me in the least. But at the end of the day, RAJ isn’t going anywhere, at least not yet, so that being said, don’t we have to try and get something back for Werth? This team is built to win now, it has a short window, even Vazquez for Werth helps this team more now than two supplemental picks…then again those picks do allow RAJ to restock the farm which according to him was his sole motivation for trading Lee…

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

But I think the real “win now” move is to just hang onto Werth. Vazquez might marginally improve the team (under the theory that Brown + Vazquez > Werth + Kendrick), but there’s simply no way Amaro would offer him arbitration, and at the end of the season it would wind up being a case of 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

If Werth could be moved for a good starting pitcher the Phils could control past this year — Werth+ for Jeremy Hellickson is my pipe dream — then by all means, explore all options. But I just don’t see that happening.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

You sir are the first person I know of to mentioned Hellickson at all. I agree with you completely that if they could get Werth for someone like that, or even a proven guy like Haren then I would make that trade as well. But I don’t see Arizona wanting to add a guy like Werth unless their sole mindset would be to get out from under Haren’s contract. Otherwise I would imagine Arizona would want prospects or younger players that they can control at marginal cost for the next few years.

As for Hellickson, I doubt Tampa would deal him for just Werth. But thats a total guess on my part.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Werth isn’t, um, worth either of those guys by himself, not by a long shot. It would need to be Werth plus prospects in a convoluted three team deal for Haren. As for Hellickson, you’re completely right, which is why I noted “Werth+” for Hellboy as a “pipe dream.” Pipe dreams are all we have left with the way this team’s been playing lately though.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hear ya, and though I enjoy the pipedream or pie in the sky as much as the next person, they just never seem to come true…I can’t see RAJ packing prospects for anyone. More likely guys like Happ or Kendrick would be packaged with Werth…not saying they add a whole lot of value to the package but if the farm is what RAJ wants to rebuild was he said in the Lee trade, than he can’t reasonably part with prospects for a starter…unless he wants to be called on it.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hellickson is unlikely, but James Shields, Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis could be possible, none is a game changer, and I doubt any of them would be moved , but Tampa does have a Starter log jam.

by Cormican on Jul 19, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d take Shields or Davis.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

No way they trade Shields

by philiafan14364 on Jul 19, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, I think it’s just as unlikely the other 2 move at the deadline. But they have a log jam, Niemann would be terrible out of the bullpen, I think and Davis is cost controlled for several more years, and should turn into a good middle of the rotation starter.

by Cormican on Jul 19, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Garza is the guy I’d try to get. He’s about to become expensive, at least by Rays terms, and they’d certainly take the picks for Werth.

by dajafi on Jul 19, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would be good with Garza.

by Cormican on Jul 19, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Creative, sensible, never would have thunk it, great upside – gold star

by j reed on Jul 19, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I feel like when Amaro shops for a car, he probably pays over sticker price because the salesman tells him someone else is interested in the car and he might miss out…

On a serious note, has RAJ offered anyone arbitration yet?

by EJL on Jul 19, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t think so.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or I should clarify, I don’t think anyone has had to go to arbitration yet. Everyone has resigned before their hearing.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

He’s offered lots of guys arbitration. The fact that they’ve all re-signed is neither unusual nor problematic. It is, in fact, a positive thing, overall.

The problem with Amaro is that he is deathly and irrationally afraid of offering someone arbitration when he doesn’t want that person back. There are times when arbitration should not be offered to such people. However, there are also times when arbitration should be offered because (1) the odds that the player in question will decline is high enough that the benefit of compensation picks becomes likely, and/or (2) the “downside” of being “stuck” with the player is low enough that it’s OK to risk having him accept. Thus far, Ruben has shown much too much risk-aversion in these scenarios, even where a calculated risk would clearly be the sensible option.

I cannot imagine that there is any way that even Amaro would be dumb enough not to offer Werth arbitration. However, I think we have identified the way in which Amaro’s irrational fears could screw things up for us – if he is so intent on avoiding the prospect of having to make a decision on whether to offer arbitration to Werth that he becomes too intent on trading Werth at the deadline and accepts a deal that other GMs would not take.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

To me, just the first part of your reason is enough— Dominic Brown has such a bright future that I do not want to see it get messed up by the pressures of being pushed up too fast onto a team that still has playoff aspirations. His potential is high, and I do not want to see impatience do anything to reduce it— RAJ has shown patience with him thus far (leaving him in AAA despite outsiders clamoring for him to come up), and it is one of the few things he has done that I completely agree with.

I also agree with you on RAJ’s ability to mess up a trade, although looking at the probable buyers with outfield needs, I only come up with one or two, and considering Werth’s recent slumpage, I question how much even the best negotiator could get, particularly without the trade including a long term deal.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 11:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Slump and contract ending at the end of the year…add that together and Werth’s value isn’t that great.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trading Werth means the Phils are giving up on the season.

The team’s biggest problem currently is offense. Rather than get rid of a bat, I would add a bat like Tejada’s. He can play 3B until Utley returns. If we get that far, Tejada could be our DH in the WS.

I would also replace Kendrick in the rotation. If Happ is not ready to pitch effectively very soon, I would pick up Pedro for the stretch run if he can get ready soon.

In view of the Lee fiasco, the idea of giving up top prospects for Haren is ludicrous. I am not a fan of Amaro either, but I do think he has the ability to think consistently. Replenishing the farm system by adding Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez and then turning around and subtracting guys like three of Cosart, Singleton, Colvin and Gose makes no sense.

by Derekcarstairs on Jul 19, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure I want anything to do with Tejada, his power is virtually gone and his AVG, OBP, etc. are not that impressive. I would rather have a guy like Wigginton, who can play multiple positions(albeit not well) but he at least has some pop in his bat and like I said, more defensive versatility.

I agree that trading Werth is giving up on this season, and with offense being in question it seems like it would make no sense to trade Werth for pitching but as we have seen time and time again, pitching is what gets it done in the playoffs and you can never have too much pitching. And it’s not like Werth is lighting the world on fire with his bat.

As for Happ, I don’t expect him to contribute much if anything at all this year. Pedro does not seem like a possibility from everything that has been said so far.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Jul 19, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Herndon

If we offered him back to the Angels, are the Phillies sure they’d take him back?

I don’t want to be unduly harsh on a kid who by rights should be at Reading, nor too tough on RAJ for taking a flyer on a Rule 5 kid for a team that was supposed to be much better than it’s played so far. But he’ll be taking up a bullpen roster spot for the next 41 games. How much do we want to believe in this guy when guys like Mathieson and now Schwimer could do the same thing? Or is really that extreme of a ground ball pitcher?

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions  

to clarify – bullpen roster spot for the next 41 games prior to 9/1 expansion, when the spot is way less valuable.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, it would only cost the Angels $25K to take him back, and I’m pretty sure they could just ship him to Triple-A without putting him on their 40-man. So, yeah, I think they’d probably take him back.

That being said, I still wonder what Anaheim’s asking price would be if we wanted to swap someone out for Herndon to facilitate a demotion to Lehigh Valley. It would have to be lower now than it was months ago, and as you say, we could really use the roster spot about now.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the problem with Herndon is that he’s in the the wrong place at the right time. Since we can just send him down for fine tuning he needs to pitch when the offense is humming and his mistakes won’t cost the team. And we are not humming and if we are it’s like humming a John Cage piece. So many times he gets thrown into serious high leverage stituations which is ridculous because he’s a pitch to contact type of guy and thus better suited for middle or long relief. Ground ball pitcher when you need a strikeout pitcher. Sorry kid, Dubee’s is to a pitcher what a life jacket made out lead is to a drowning man.

by j reed on Jul 19, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree— sending him in with runners on the bases is asking for trouble. While I like him better than Baez, this is probably because he is younger and likely has not reached his full potential yet. Watching Dubee coach this pitching staff this year has at moments made me wonder how this team won a World Series and a National League pennant in consecutive years.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 1:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

age schmage.

Herndon: 24
Kendrick: 25
Hamels: 26

Worley: 22
Schwimer: 24
Mathieson: 26

Dubee doesn’t decide when to put him in, and what do you know that he’s doing so badly? Has he changed Herndon’s mechanics?

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I had been under the impression that Dubee made many of the pitching decisions. If I am wrong, then he is off the hook, although the pitching decisions this year (leaving certain pitchers in too long, etc.) have seemed way off base. I was using the age argument more in terms of Herndon v. Baez- I know that Kendrick and Hamels are young, and that obviously the prospects are young as well. If I could option Herndon to AAA, I would do it to bring up a pitcher better in high leverage situations. But I would DFA (knowing tha he probably would not accept) Baez before I lost Herndon.

On a somewhat related note- why did the team outright Castro instead of designating him for assignment?

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 2:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Manuel has said that Dubee is the boss in all matters pitching. Gardenhire is the same way with Anderson. Which isn’t to say they won’t be overruled I suppose and ultimate the decision is the managers but the point is they primarily act on their counsel. A deciding Game 6 of the ‘09 WS and Pedro can’t get over 83 mph from the get go. It is obvious he is laboring and he looked hurt. How was this not in anyway seen in his bull pen session. Did Dubee forget his radar gun? He had no business pitching and was a lamb for the slaughter. He was done. He also permitted Lidge to throw 4 days in a row last year. That’s like weight training with the same sub maximal load with same muscle groups 4 days in a row. That is bad. Even worse the guy was on the DL earlier that season. Those are two of the worse incidents. Maybe Dubee’s decent among a batch of bad. Certainly the injury rates of pitchers in general already puts them all in a bad light. It’s a non contact activity, many of these injuries fall into the category for which bad technique, improperly conditioned athletic foundations, and overuse are to blame unless there are alot of pitchers with anatomical anomalies which I think doubtful. These injuries, with some latitude made for what other coaches may have done before , falls heavily on the coach and trainers. Does it mean I think Dubee ought to be fired. No. Why. Because he’s the devill that I know in a sea of dreck.

by j reed on Jul 19, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Vance Worley

Worley’s last 15 starts:

92 IP, 93 H, 28 ER, 8 HR, 26 BB, 67 K; 2.74 ERA

Worley’s improvement in 2010 at Reading is based on what he can control (which is nice!).

His K rate is higher this year than last (6.55 K/9 vs. 5.87 K/9) and his BB rate is lower (2.54 BB/9 vs. 2.88 BB/9) and his GB/FB rate is better as well (1.09 vs. 0.96).

Remember that in 2009 Worley skipped Clearwater, making the large jump from A-ball to AA that much larger. Worley is still young (22), so if he keeps this up, he might turn into a useful major-league player.

At the very least, I’m encouraged that the Phillies have enough interesting arms in the high minors to stop wasting money on free-agent middle-relievers.

by Romero on Jul 19, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions  

The Young Arms Excite Me...

But the team still must get past RAJ’s penchant for overspending on free agent relievers…

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 11:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I had Worley at #15 on my offseason list. I’ve been a fan of his since his debut for many of the reasons you mentioned (age relative to league, solid control, ground ball tendencies), so I’m obviously particularly happy to see him turn in a solid bounce back year. If I had the time to do a prospect roundup this week, he would certainly have been on it.

That said, this season has shown me that his ceiling is probably that of a #5 starter. Guys who can’t induce a ton of swing-and-miss need to either really pound the strike zone or really keep the ball on the ground. Worley does those things to some degree (2.9 BB/9, 46.2% GB), but not nearly enough to make me think that he’ll be able to get through a major league lineup multiple times.

Still, his splits show that he tends to have more success with strikeouts and ground balls in his earlier frames, so if he can’t make it as a starter, he’d still be a really solid bet to make it as a reliever. And really, as you say, anytime you can stock a bullpen with the Worleys and Schwimers and De Frati of the world, you’re saving yourselves from Danys Baez part deux.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Is DeFrati the plural of DeFratus?

by Cormican on Jul 19, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahhh, glad someone caught it. ;)

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope he doesn’t suffer from Defratulence.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s nice to see him catching fire now, but his first part of the season was kind of blah. And, since he’s already used up most of the innings in his prospect innings tank, I can’t imagine he’d have that much value as a Sept callup even, as strikeouts are needed most.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I could see him getting to #4, maybe even higher though it’s unlikely. He wouldn’t be the first guy with his numbers at age 22 at AA to accomplish that feat. Too early to set a ceiling with any confidence.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2010 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Catching Atlanta

This season is set up perfectly to catch Atlanta at the end, as 6 of the Phillies final 12 games are against the Braves (they get the Braves in both the home finale and the season finale). Looking at that gives me some hope that if the Phillies can just keep it close, there could be real reason for hope all the wayto the end of September.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 11:45 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

You use the word “hope” more than anyone I’ve ever seen. Not every comment you post here needs to be framed in terms of giving you hope. For instance, you could have just said that the Phillies remaining schedule against the braves gives them a very real chance of closing the gap in the division very rapidly if they can get their act together. That would have been a good point. But then you go and dilute your point by mixing in this stuff about your hopes and feelings. Whether this gives you hope is largely immaterial. What is important is whether the Phillies as a team have a chance of making the playoffs, not whether you have hope for them.

I’m sorry for constantly pointing this out for you, but I feel like I at least owe it to you to explain why I find your posts so annoying.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Hmm

I’m starting to think you don’t like dannijd…we’re all friends here!

by ajay on Jul 19, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not that I don’t like her. It’s just that I find her unbearably annoying at times. I’m sure she’s a much better person than me, actually.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 2:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah, but aren’t we all?

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 19, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

What? Annoying or better people than I am? Re: the latter, probably everyone by you ; )

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

everyone BUT you

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

As my sex ed teacher told us in jr. high, “Hope is not a method.” While he was referring to birth control rather than baseball, the same thing applies. The team has not been very good this year. Getting healthier would help in the main problem area, which has been scoring more runs than the opposition. Time is running out, as illustrated below:

Braves:
54 – 38 = 92 games played, 70 left

Phillies:
48 – 43 = 91 games player, 71 left.

The Phillies are 5 back in the loss column, and need to lose 6 fewer games than the Braves to catch the Braves. At their current W/L rate, the Braves will win 41 more games this year, for a total of 95 wins. The Phillies would then need to win 48 games to pass them, unless Atlanta starts to play at a lower level.

That means the Phillies need to go 48 – 23, or .676, the rest of the way.

Now, adjust the numbers however you like, but the hard fact is that right now, the season is 71 games, and the Phillies need to make up 6 games on Atlanta over that period. That’s nearly 80 points of winning percentage (.080).

That is a big hole. It can be done (see: Phillies, Philadelphia – 2007 and 2008), but it gets harder the shorter the year gets.

Where to look for marginal wins? At 3b (moving Polanco to 2B for the duration) or at 2B (leaving Polanco at 3B). Try getting some sort of platoon split with Francisco from LF where Ibanez, whose OPS+ is below 100 for the first time since 2000, has fallen off considerably from last year.

Raul’s LHB v LHP OPS+ is 82 and a vomitous 64 against LH starters. Against RHP, he’s been above average (107 v RHP starters and 103 v. RHP in general).

Francisco is 97 v. LHP and 82 v. LH starters.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=ibanera01&year=2010&t=b

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=francbe01&year=2010&t=b

Francisco should also be better in LF than Ibanez.

Victorino has an atrocious OBP (.317), which results largely from the fact that he is terrible at hitting RHP. His OPS vs. LHP is .960 while he’s .701 v. LHP. Continuing on the theme above, it might make sense to platoon Victorino and Ibanez (Ibanez is .619 v. LHP and .770 v. RHP).

I may try to put together a “Phix the Phillies” post to tie some of this together, but until Cholly gets a brain transplant and becomes Earl Weaver, we’re unlikely to see any creative platoon ideas.

Sorry about the rambling post today. Just frustrated by the Cubs series.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who are these people? The boy looks like a younger version of a friend of mine.

by phatj on Jul 19, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have no idea who they actually are, except that I thought this kid was unmistakably akin to a very young version of Lloyd Christmas (who happens to be a Phillies fan).

by Get A Grip on Jul 20, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

I love your statement about what improved health would do for this team: scoring more runs than the opponent has been our problem— but isn’t that always the case when one loses?

As for Ibañez/ Francisco, the signs are already pointing toward a platoon, even if if is not called that. However, the only way that playing Ben Francisco in place of Victorino with RHPs makes sense is if Fransisco is a better hitter than Victorino against RHPs and this improvement is not cancelled out by the defensive dropoff from Victorino to Werth in center + the defensive drop off from Werth to Fransisco in Right. I am not a big stats person (particularly the defensive metrics) but I kind of doubt that change makes sense.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 4:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

You may be underestimating how badly Victorino is performing against RHP this year.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

As I said— I do not have the numbers in front of me, nor the ability to determine WAR for each (including the defensive adjustments)… My stat math skills are limited. I am not sure though how Fransisco is against RHP, and the defensive adjustments, to know whether it is a net gain/push/loss

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Starting points:

1. Any OF on the roster would be better defensively than Ibanez..
2. Any OF on the roster would be better than Victorino against RHP.
3. Ibanez is terrible against LHP

In my world, Ibanez sits against LHP, leaving something like:
Francisco/Victorino/Werth

The harder call is against RHP, since it will be roughly 2/3 of the games. Victorino should sit sometimes against RHP, but probably not all the time. Maybe there’s an RHP1 and RHP2 lineup, where RHP2 is for tougher RHP starters:

Ibanez/Werth/Gload?

Mayberry is a RH hitter, so he doesn’t help against RHP. The unpleasant answer is maybe “Domonic Brown”. I’m not sure I’m in favor of that, though. If it was for platooning only, I might be more interested, though I’d like to see it wait till September when rosters expand if it does happen.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crazy Stat Notes

1. Jimmy Rollins’s RBI singles bringing home Carlos Ruiz represented the first time that 1-0 games on back to back days were decided by the same player batting in the same teammate since the RBI stat was invented in 1920.

2. Saturday’s 5 walk performance by Carlos Marmol was the first time that a Cubs pitcher had given up 5 walks in an inning or less since Johnny Vander Meer walked five of the ten batters he faced against the Whiz Kid Phillies on July 27, 1950.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 12:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Cue the crazy Phillies fans saying we never should have traded for Halladay. All I heard this morning was “We should have just kept Cliff Lee.”

I guess they are forgetting his last 5 or 6 starts at the end of last season.

I know this is completely irrational, but I’m starting to kind of hate the name Cliff Lee, and it’s really unfair to him. It’s all caused by idiot groupthink.

"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

by doubleh on Jul 19, 2010 12:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Of course, if we’d simply kept Cliff Lee (and never traded for Halladay), odds are we’d be even further behind at this point (due to Lee’s 5 missed starts at the start of the season)… and then the idiot groupthink would be about how we should have traded for Roy Halladay.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

The other thing that the groupthink is missing is the fact that Lee has had a couple of bad games too (Off the top of my head, he gave up 6 runs in his first game as a Ranger and 7 runs in a game in May.) I am not trying to down Lee (who is a great pitcher), but only trying to say that he is not perfect, and has had his bad games too.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 1:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

But that’s why groupthink is idiocy—they are like sheep and can only argue their points in a complete vacuum. The simple fact that the Phillies offense is either in the middle of the pack or toward the bottom of every single offensive category (when they used to be top 3 in previous years) is utterly lost on them. Jamie Moyer and Roy Halladay, for whatever reason, struggle against the inept Cubs and it showed. Their defense didn’t exactly look stellar on the field, either, but I blame in part the dreadful Wrigley grounds (the other part is a lack of fundamental sense this season).

To be more concise, there are a lot more factors that are contributing to this Phillies season that f**king Cliff Lee not being here. If you want to argue that we should have Halladay AND Lee, well, then be my guest. But to argue we’d be better off with just Cliff Lee, who would have been 100% gone after this season, is just incorrect IMO.

"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

by doubleh on Jul 19, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you entirely

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Also

I am sort of tired about the whole “loveable loser” thing Cub fans still rock. First of all, as a city, Chicago has had a recent championship with the Blackhawks (btw, f you, Chicago), 2005 White Sox, 90’s dynasty Bulls, 85 Bears. They have had a parade every single decade and in the case of the 90’s, several parades. Oh, so you’re one pathetic baseball franchise hasn’t won anything? Boo, f’ing hoo. Philly has one parade in 28 years and counting. Cleveland hasn’t had one in, like…ever. So cram it up your cramholes, Chicago.

Nothing personal. I like your city, but get over the Cubs already, mmkay?

"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

by doubleh on Jul 19, 2010 2:12 PM EDT reply actions  

I think they will get over their Cubs long about when Cleveland gets over it’s Browns, Detroit gets over the Lions, or Philadelphia gets over their Eagles.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 2:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Well, Eagles fans piss me off quite frequently, too—even if I understand it more, considering we usually go 0 for 4 every single season across the board.

"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

by doubleh on Jul 19, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Plus, I would think that For Cubs fans the 2005 World Series would be more rubbing salt in the wound than anything, just as I doubt that Mets fans drew much joy from watching the Yankees win the World Series last year.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Also, interesting pitching matchup tonight.

Hawksworth is essentially what many people think Kendrick is: a right hander with middling strikeout and walk numbers but a damn good sinker, all of which adds up to a solid #4/5 starter’s profile.

(For comparison’s sake, I’d classify Kendrick as a right hander with solid walk numbers, terrible strikeout numbers, and a sinker that doesn’t really sink all that much — all of which adds up to a #6 starter/swingman.)

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2010 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

AAAA

There are worse things in the world than an option like Kendrick. A quick mental survey of Phillies starting pitching from, say, forever until 2008 suggests to me that if Kyle Kendrick is your worst starter in 2010, then you are doing pretty well. I have been pleasantly surprised that Kendrick has not exploded this year. He seems, for now, to be a serviceable #5/6 (spot starter/long man), and that has value.

Objectively, he is a somewhat valuable resource to the team. When I watch him pitch, I cringe and expect the worst, though.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shhhh on the not exploding (7 runs in less than two innings once a season from him is about all that I can take). I too cringe when he pitches, although the job of being the cringeworthy pitcher in the lineup is shared with Cupcakes and of late Moyer… Lots of crossed fingers and hoping for the best this series.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 4:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

OT

Simon Gagne traded to Lightning today for crap. If you think RAJ is a bad GM, try Paul Holmgren on for size. Granted, Homer worked himself into a corner and pretty much had no room to negotiate, but his cap mgmt is horrible.

It’s days like these that make me appreciate that there’s no salary cap in baseball, even if that makes the NYY stronger.

"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko

by doubleh on Jul 19, 2010 3:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Getting nothing back for Gagne would have been slightly better. I only say this with respect to the salary cap. That dude they got back makes 1.7 mil/season (had 5 points in 66 games) and they’re still pushing up against the cap… just about one million under.

Draft picks would have been way way better.

by Get A Grip on Jul 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed, that is a God awful trade.

by Cormican on Jul 19, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok… Holmgren just got RAJ out of the Philly Sports doghouse for a couple of days (although he may in reality just be sharing space there). As much as I hate the lack of a salary cap for the way that theEvil Empire is able to go out and buy anything they want, I also recognize that it has given the Phillies some good things, including the ability to keep their core together while acquiring increasingly expensive pitching help. It is a shame that the Flyers are getting split up due to salary cap issues after coming so close to the Stanley Cup.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 4:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but the atlanta/milwaukee series was in atlanta, therefore not on the road, where the braves have been quite mediocre actually. just saying.

by PhilsForever on Jul 19, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Bobby Cox and Jonny Venters Suspended

Per ESPN,Braves manager Bobby Cox has been suspended for one game and relief pitcher Jonny Venters for 4 games following Venters hitting Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder in the back with a pitch during Saturday’s game. Cox will serve his suspension tomorrow in San Diego with Venters also beginning his suspension that day if the players’ union does not appeal. While I do not always agree with suspensions for pitchers who hit players (for example, I do not want Roy Halladay suspended for hitting Marlon Byrd last night), cases such as this one, where Venters started out by pitching one over Fielders head, call for such action.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 6:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Analysis and features focusing on Philadelphia Phillies baseball.
Start posting about the Phillies »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Wholecamels_small
Let's Go Mets! One Week Only.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Phils vs Marlins from St Pete
Prosser_small
Some perspective regarding Kyle Kendrick
Cbbaseball_small
Observations
Small
Phillies 9/4/10 - Roy, Rod & Roopholyn
Ash100x100_small
Brad Lidge Wobblehead Night
Small
Going Pigeon blog: 9/3/10 - Phils, Phood, Phielder
120_small
What Hamels W-L should be.
Prosser_small
What was the best individual single game hitting performance up to this point?
Small
Going Pigeon blog in progress - Phils at Dodgers 8/31/10
Small
How "unhittable" was Kuroda last night?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Chicago White Sox's Mark Teahan is congratulated by Gordon Beckham (15) after scoring on a single by A.J. Pierzynski in the second inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Monday, Sept. 6, 2010 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

White Sox Win Seventh In A Row On A.J. Pierzynski's 10th-Inning Single

NEW YORK - JULY 18:  Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees bends over prior to leaving the game in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning on July 18 2010 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) +6 updates

Andy Pettitte Reporting To Minors For Rehab Start Following Incident-Free Bullpen

New York Yankees' Brett Gardner, left, Nick Swisher, and Curtis Granderson, right, celebrate after the Yankees beat the Oakland Athletics 4-3 in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun) link

Beyond The Box Score's Week 22 Power Rankings

More from SBNation.com >


Blog Lords

Wholecamels_small WholeCamels

Boys_small jonk

Dsc04697_small David S. Cohen

Meltingface_small dajafi

Phillyfriar__new2__small PhillyFriar

Associate Blog Lords

0_61_borat_102706_small FuquaManuel

Bugs_small taco pal

Greg_luzinski_small Wet Luzinski

Small schmenkman

Blogger Emeritus

Colevatar_small Matt Swartz