SB Nation Philly Editor's Pick

Victorino - An Abomination when facing RHP in 2010

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 4:23 PM EDT

Promoted as well. RTP has his big boy stat pants on today.

Quick -- name an MLB player with an on-base percentage of .317 who is on pace to get 660 AB! If the giant "VICTORINO" in the headline didn't help you, then nothing will. Why are the Phillies struggling this year? The outfield production has fallen off. Ibanez has rightly taken some blame, but Shane Victorino deserves some scorn, too, and not just for this shirt. Mostly, it is related to his inability to deal with RHP in 2010, whereas he was at least reasonably decent in past years.

Victorino has a couple of sins to confess this year, aside from his fashion sense and his somewhat frightening mauling of fellow players, though to be fair Dobbs should be gored with a bat. The sins?

1. His OBP is atrocious, and

2. He can't hit RHP this year

These may really be two symptoms of the same illness (struggles against RHP), but I'd like to break it out a little to highlight different points.

1. Victorino's OBP is atrocious: Last year, Victorino got on base at a rate of .358. This year, it is .317. Over the course of 660 at bats in a year, that represents 24 fewer opportunities at being on base. Against RHP (see below), his OBP is .297. That is beyond bad. That is a serious problem. Versus LHP, he is getting on at .374. He is Francoeur-like when facing RHP, folks.

2. Victorino can't hit RHP this year:

The OPS really says it all:

Year RHP LHP

2010 .701 .960

2009 .787 .844

2008 .762 .882

Against RHP, he has been just terrible. Considering that about 40% of his at bats are against LHP and 60% are against RHP, the problems with RHP are even more magnified. His raw average this year RHP/LHP is: .228/.323.

For his career, he has demonstrated that he is an adequate hitter from the left side against RHP, but this year, he is having serious struggles. I also checked his power numbers -- they are better against LHP also: Victorino has 5 HR against LHP and 10 vs RHP. Remember that his ratio of RH at bats to LH-AB is about 2.7/1, though. His HR/AB is 1/20 against lefties and 1/27 against RHP.

Should Victorino sit against tough RHP starters at least? Perhaps. It's worth exploring what might fix the Phillies through platoon uses. Also, if the Phillies are seriously considering trading Werth, the platoon aspects should be part of the discussion. It might be easier to get half of of a platoon than it would be to get a full-time player. Also, if the Phillies are after marginal WAR, finding a part-time OF that can hit RHP well might pay some dividends, and it might be possible to pull off without trading Werth.

Gload may not be able to do it, but it might be worth at least thinking about starting two lineups (LF/CF/RF):

RHP: Ibanez/Werth/Gload

LHP: Francisco/Victorino/Werth

Even if this was just "once in a while" it might keep the reserves (and the aging OF) fresh while working for gains from platooning. The team could alternate Werth/Victorino once in a while against easier RHP to give Werth some rest, especially on those "day game after night game" situations....

Tweet Comment 22 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Very good stuff.

I was also curious about this also, so I did a quick check on fangraphs, and I think his struggles batting lefthanded can be largely ascribed to bad luck. Case in point, his BABIP against righties currently sits at an unsustainably atrocious .232. His K rate and walk rates are roughly equal from both sides of the plate this season, so it doesn’t appear as if his plate discipline is the problem.

He is hitting fewer line drives, and more groundballs batting lefthanded (14.1% and 46.7%) than he does righthanded (19.0% and 36.9%), but this has been the case for his entire career. In fact for his career, he has hit 18.4% LD and 49.4% GB as a lefty vs. 20.9% LD and 36% GB as a righty. So perhaps something is wrong with his swing effecting the quality of contact, but the numbers don’t appear to bear this out.

In any case, I wouldn’t platoon him, on the likelihood that his struggles fall into the category of “bad luck”.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

X2 on all counts— thanks Fuqua for answering the one question RTP left open to me (whether BABIP luck played into the problem).

One question, though- is there any way to find out how much of the awful BABIP can be blamed on grounding out directly to second (a seemingly chronic problem for him that may keep his BABIP down?

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 5:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Good question. I suppose there has to be a scatterplot or something like that somewhere showing WHERE he is grounding out when he does so, but his LH groundball rate is actually LOWER than his career mark, so my gut tells me that isn’t the problem. However, the dip in LD% vs. RHP could suggest an underlying problem with his swing and the quality of his contact. These are things that are beyond my capabilities to check right now, though.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

If anyone knows where they can find the hitfx data, please let me know

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 19, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

His LD as a LHB are at 14.1 vs 18.4 in 09. FB are up, and roughly 90% of those turn into outs. GB is up as LHB (46.7 up to 49.4), and roughly 75% of those turn into outs. The decline of LD from 18.4 to 14.1 seems to be the main culprit, with the increases to FB and GO.

Why this year? I don’t know, and I’m not qualified to say what’s up with the swing. The results are bad, though. Could just be normal Burrellesque (!) variability. With pasties.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

No, the GBs are down from 49 to 46 this year. But I agree that the jump in FBs and the dip in LDs are the red flags.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, it’s an imperfect site, but what I found interesting was to look at Victorino’s fb and gb outs this year vs. the last two years as well as his entire career. I look at CBP for the biggest sample size.

There looks to be something in what dannijd noted. Looks like this year his fb outs go to lf and his gb go to the right side, whereas previously he had more of a balanced spread.

So, I’ll subscribe to the theory that his swing is busted, and he’s trying to maximize his power (which is to rf) at the expense of obp. And zOMG, he’s got career highs in HRs, so there’s my evidence.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah the dreaded nexus of the SABR Nerdz’s territory and the “but I watch the gamez” crowd’s understanding of baseball.

Its like when scientists use the scientific method and actual data to uncover something that bible-thumpers have been saying for centuries despite no evidence. (I’m assuming that this has happened at least once in human history).

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 6:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

To my friend, RememberthePhitans: Keep thinking lineups!

Best Wishes,
Earl Weaver

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions

and might I also add, kudos on the new avatar.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

That would be Kreider’s doing, for which he received a book (27 Men Out) and a gift certificate to Amazon. It was really nice work. It is kind of hypnotic after a while.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

it is teh awesomesauce, KreiderDesigns.

If anyone out there can find an actual image of Greg Luzinski standing in the outfield during the 1977 NLCS in the rain, I’ll get you, uh, Chris Wheeler’s book?

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

If someone can make it down to the main public library during business hours, they might be able to find this in the Inquirer archives on microfiche. The print quality would be pretty poor though.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, but if I can’t make it an avatar, I could scan and adapt it into a kind of Sad Rally Post.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 19, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if his shoulder injury in spring training is partly to blame. He’s batting RH then his right shoulder and right arm are the where all the PE is loaded as he cocks the bat back before swinging. Could possibly affect his power if the injury prohibits his range of motion. Or he’s just dumb

by j reed on Jul 19, 2010 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

Dr. Reed!

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 19, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Walter Reed’s offspring, no doubt.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 19, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt that it is stupidity alone, as I doubt that switching sides of the plate takes anything away from what is between said batter’s ears. I would not be surprised at all, though to hear that he has some sort of minor shoulder injury that is impacting his ability to drive the ball from that side.

by dannijd on Jul 19, 2010 11:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions