Your move, Ruben: Assessing the trade market for a new Phillies infielder
by PhillyFriar on Jul 2, 2010 9:42 AM EDT
Email
PrintWith yesterday's news that Chase Utley will be out for roughly 8 weeks after thumb surgery, and that Placido Polanco is likely to miss 4 weeks with his elbow problem, there is suddenly a pair of gaping holes in the Phillies' infield. Were the Phils in cruise control atop a weak division, or if the organization had significant organizational depth at the keystone and the hot corner, it might make sense to simply tread water until the 2 and 3 hole hitters returned. But the reality of the situation is far more pressing:
- the Phillies find themselves 3rd in the NL East, behind a Braves squad that is very, very good, and a Mets club that is better than thought coming into the season;
- the replacement options (Greg Dobbs, Wilson Valdez, Juan Castro) are the very definition of replacement level; and
- while it's depressing to admit it, the club's core is composed of guys either in or past their primes, and each successive season provides a lesser chance at hoisting the World Series trophy than the one before it.
The above factors lead to one simple and inescapable conclusion: Ruben Amaro needs to make a move to shore up the infield, and fast. But who should he trade for? Well, I'm glad you asked. Check below the jump as we run through some of the candidates.
Ty Wigginton, Orioles
Why he makes sense: The former Mets prospect can handle both 2B and 3B, and he's a solid hitter (.270/.330/.454 in his career, .262/.347/.473 in 2010). His versatility, plus the fact that he's a right handed hitter, means that he'd serve a valuable role even when both Utley and Polanco return. The O's should be motivated to move someone in their infield to accommodate recent call up Josh Bell. Finally, the prorated portion of his $3.5 million salary for 2010 shouldn't be too much to handle.
Why he doesn't make sense: He's something of a Dobbs-ian defender at both positions.
Jose Lopez, Mariners
Why he makes sense: Like Wigginton, Lopez is also capable of playing both 2B and 3B, with the added bonus that he's a solid defender at each spot. He's not a spectacular hitter by any means (career .269/.300/.405), but still represents a likely upgrade over the current options, and the M's are apparently motivated to move him. The remainder of his $2.3 million salary this year should be relatively affordable.
Why he doesn't make sense: Like virtually everyone on the M's, Lopez has struggled immensely with the stick this year (just .244/.271/.336). And is anyone else a bit anxious about the prospect of Amaro dealing with Jack Z again?
Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks
Why he makes sense: As Johnson's BABIP has recovered after an unsightly .247 number last year, so have his overall numbers. He's got 13 HR, a .261/.364/.482 slash line, and judging by UZR, his defense has improved greatly in recent years. The remaining portion of his $2.35 million salary makes him a bargain.
Why he doesn't make sense: Because of the production and the affordable contract, he's likely to command more in a trade than anyone else on this list. And he hasn't played anything but 2B in the majors since 2005, so he'd be a glorified pinch hitter once Utley comes back.
Jhonny Peralta, Indians
Why he makes sense: I'd venture to guess that the Indians probably aren't looking for a ton in return, and the career .265/.330/.423 hitter is an obvious upgrade over the incumbents. He's even capable of playing shortstop if necessary.
Why he doesn't make sense: The remainder $4.6 million contract this year (and $250K buyout for next year) is probably the biggest obstacle. He also hasn't been nearly as good a hitter the past few years, as evidenced by his .253/.318/.401 line in 2010.
Miguel Tejada, Orioles
Why he makes sense: Even at 36, he's probably still the best pure hitter of the bunch. His power has evaporated in recent years (just .099 ISO in 2010), but he still has an uncanny ability to make contact with everything. He's settled in nicely as a third baseman, with roughly average defensive numbers at the position.
Why he doesn't make sense: The remainder of his $6 million salary for this year, plus the $150K he gets if traded, is the biggest reason. If the O's were to throw in some money to cover part of that, they'd want a better prospect, which I'm not sure if the Phillies would (or should) do.
Pedro Feliz, Astros
Why he makes sense: Ummm, he's got a World Series ring, so he's a winner?
Why he doesn't make sense: Here are the Cliffs Notes, so this doesn't get too long: his bat speed is gone, as evidenced by his .229/.255/.317 line this year; he's limited to third base defensively; and his defense has plummeted this year. The -1.2 WAR this year pretty much says it all.
54 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Replacement level?
I’ve seen this said a few times already – that Valdez, Castro, and Schneider are replacement level. But, are they even that good? I tend to think of them as below replacement level. Am I wrong and they actually are replacement level?
below average
“Replacement level” and “League average” are separate things. A “league average” ballplayer is pretty valuable, whereas a “replacement level” turd is not.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I’ve found this page helpful in understanding the concept of replacement level. It’s specifically on VORP (and is older than dirt), but covers replacement level near the beginning. Essentially, a replacement level player is one that takes pretty much no assets to acquire, whether they be a league minimum FA or a AAA system player. I think our three-headed monster is roughly replacement level; most AAA guys wouldn’t be an improvement on them.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I checked the numbers a week or two ago and if I recall, Valdez and Castro actually are roughly at replacement level at shortstop. That would indicate that they are not replacement level at third base. Not sure about second base.
I don’t think Schneider’s that bad, as catchers go. He might even be above replacement level. Sardinha and Hoover, on the other hand, have got to be below it.
Why would being replacement level shortstops preclude them from being replacement level at third— Everything I have read about baseball suggests that shortstop is the hardest infield position to play?
As for Schnider, I don’t think he is that bad, particularly considering that he is the backup. As for Sardinha and Hoover…not so much.
Offensive production tends to be higher from third basemen, so it should be, in theory, easier to find a third baseman who produces better offensive numbers than it is to find a short stop with those numbers. Replacement level accounts for the defensive spectrum.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 2, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d say Schneider and maybe Valdez are at replacement level… Schneider might actually be a bit better than that, since he can take a walk and the threshold for catchers is so low.
According to BP, Castro has posted a negative WARP for 6 consecutive seasons, which makes it pretty amazing that he’s still in the league.
Tricky
Depends what you mean by replacement level. BP defines difference in replacement level across the defensive spectrum by the offensive production of replacement level players at that position. FanGraphs and B-R define replacement level based on the average change in defensive value when a player switches position. These are very similar, but not quite the same. For instance a BP replacement level third basemen produces more offensively than a FanGraphs replacement level third basemen and vice versa for a second baseman. That is because the average change in performance by people who have switched from 2B to 3B or from 3B to 2B is about 0. But the average AAA call ups at 3B do better than the average AAA call ups at 2B, just like the average 3B hits better than the average 2B, presumably because of the average size of players who play the position. I’m inclined to go with the BP definition not just out of company loyalty but because it represents the actual opportunity cost at the position, and because the average change in defensive performance when people switch positions is a biased sample since it’s only guys like Polanco and Figgins that are driving those numbers. Scott Rolen would suck at 2B and Chase Utley would suck at 3B but both are amazing at their positions. Utley just doesn’t have the arm and Rolen is just too big to make the turn without getting hurt a lot.
I always wondered what Ty Wigginton’s full first name was (Tyrone? Tyrell?) and never bothered to look it up until just now. As it turns out, it’s just “Ty”.
Homer J. Simpson
Homer Jay Simpson. Can’t believe I waited for commercials to end to discover that Homer J. is really Homer Jay
"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone
by layout ultimate on Jul 3, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Pedro Feliz
Did Pedro Feliz’s skills cliffdive from last year to this, or is this one of those cases where small viewership sample size (I do not get to watch a ton of baseball, and when I did, it often seemed like Feliz would hit a homerun— I was actually there for two of them) making me remember him last year as better than he was?
Cliff diving. He was below average as a batter for pretty much his whole career (one season with an OPS+ over 100), but he was an 81 both years he was with Philly. He’s a 54 this year, which is his worst ever in a season where he played a double-digit number of games. His fielding’s also fallen off, although I don’t think quite as severely, but he’s now an atrocious hitter and no more than an average fielder.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
A llittle of both: he wasn’t very good last year, when he was one of the worst-hitting 3B-men in baseball, but a decent fielder. This year, his hitting is even worse, due in part to a below-normal BABIP, which may indicate he can rebound and at least come close to last year’s level, but his fielding is also worse this year. All of which means that so far he’s been one of the worst regulars in MLB, and the worst 3B-man by a good margin.
Feliz was lucky in 2009
I was sounding the bell all last year that Feliz had actually fallen off a cliff between 2008 and 2009 and that he was just getting lucky enough that his performance looked like he had maintained. Everything suggested he was hitting the ball worse than before and that his bat speed was slowing down, but it wasn’t until his luck corrected in 2010 that anybody noticed. Feliz is cooked and has been for over a year.
Arguably, the biggest thing saving him was the ridiculous plunge in his K rate between 2006 and 2007, from 18.6% to 12.6%. From the time he entered the majors through 2006, he had an 18.84% K rate. Since then, it’s been 11.99%. His BABIP has declined from .271 during those first 6 years to .262 over the last four, but he’s putting more balls in play by striking out less. He’s just finally reached the point where his K rate can’t realistically descend much more, but his BABIP has dropped to new lows.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Three rules for Ruben:
1. Don’t give up on the season and start selling off assets unless and until you absolutely have to on July 31.
2. Don’t panic and get ripped off by trading too good of a prospect just for a Dobbs-to-Wigginton upgrade.
3. If it comes down to it, there are worse things than missing the playoffs for one season. It would be worse to do long-term damage to your organization, by, for instance, trading away too much minor league talent or rushing prospects to the majors.
I’m pretty hungry, I could go for a reuben right about now.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 2, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I can make a mean Reuben.
The key, believe it or not, is microwaving the corned beef, sauerkraut, and swiss for about a minute and grilling the bread separately.
My time working in a deli has paid off.
my only amendment
would be to move up the sell-by date to july 20 or 25, just because if you wait until right before the deadline the dynamic can shift back to the buyer—because the selling team is worried they’ll get nothing.
Yes, that’s a fair point.
I doubt it will come to that though. Utley’s absence will hurt us a lot, but it won’t knock us clear out of contention in the space of two months. If it does, it probably means that for whatever reason, we wouldn’t have been there anyway (or would have only been on the outskirts of contention).
Agree. He’s been a market-jumper in the past, I wouldn’t be surprised if he does something by the 15th or so, given the ASB. Other possibilities are 7/23 for the start of the homestand through 7/29 – just could make it easier to shuttle guys up & down to Lehigh Valley if needed.
WC wants the Haren deal, it is kind of interesting that the D-Bags will be in town 7/27-29.
It’s hard for me to believe, given all the “advanced” discussion around here, that you guys are talking about the potential for a late-July sell-off. The Phillies are only five games behind and five games over .500 — that’s over, not under — so where is this Chicken Little mentality coming from? There is not going to be a sell-off unless the team completely nose-dives. I mean, seriously, after the last three seasons, you guys are still afraid of the Mets? Seriously?
I’m sure they’d ask Valle, as I’ve heard reports that they (like everyone) want a good catching prospect. I would think he could be pried loose for something more like Francisco who’s about equivalent or a marginal prospect.
I think some of what they would ask for in a deal for Lopez may also hinge on whether they are able to get the catching prospect in the trade for Cliff Lee. If the Twins or Rangers are interested, either team would have a prospect further allong than Valle, which may make them more willing to take somebody or something else from the Phillies, although the pharm system is more than a little empty right now.
The farm is probably still a top half of MLB system, it’s just bottom heavy. Brown, Singleton and Cosart would be top 5-10 prospects in almost any system in baseball. The vast majority of our prospects are in single-A which makes them highly volatile commodities, but few prospects in baseball have higher ceilings than Santana, James, Gose, Cosart and Colvin. Problem being that the y also have pretty low floors (may never make it further up the ladder than High A ball) and trading any prospects for a band aid would be a terrible idea.
That said, Lopez ain’t going for that much. We’d more likely be talking a fringy prospect like Quintin Berry or similar.
I think the question that keeps going around to me is whether it is worth it for 3-8 weeks to bring a patch in— I mean, granted losing Polanco AND Utley at the same time hurts, but Polanco may be back in three weeks, and if we could survive without Rollins for essentially two months of this season, I do not know that any of the players whose names are being batted around are all that much better than sticking the best of the Dobbs-Castro-Valdez crew at Third, letting Polanco cover Second, and keeping the prospects.
Well, you’d be talking about a fringe prospect, and someone like Wigginton, Lopez or Tejada would give you a very good right handed bat off the bench (glaring weakness), even when Utley returns. If the prospect cost is minimal I would very much like that move.
Or, what if the Phillies, already (reportedly) looking at Dan Haren, work out some wiggle room to squeeze Kelly Johnson from the D-Backs? He’s a lefty bat, positionally inflexible, but offensively he’d be an enormous upgrade over cerebrus.
‘Replacement player’ is semantic. What you are likely going to get out of Castro/Dobbs at 3B (if you assume Dobbs starts vs. RHP and Castro vs. LHP) until at least the ASB is a below average defensive combo that is somewhere between a .550-.600 OPS. That’s bad. Really bad.
I would be surprised if it would it would take much at all in terms of a prospect to get Lopez or Tejada. The question is just how much additional salary they are willing to take on. Tejada would be $3.75M roughly and Lopez would be $2.3M. Sadly, I see them willing to get terrible production from 3B until Polanco returns and the trading deadline creeps up.
Didn’t realize that Lopez is under contract next year $2.75M with a $250k buyout. Probably gives him a bit more value than Tejada but I wonder if teams interested in Lopez actually see him a possible starter next year.
You’re probably living with Dobbs/Castro through August, no the ASB. Once Polanco returns, I’m almost certain he will shift to 2nd and the platoon will remain in place at 3rd.
So why not move him to Third when Polanco returns, put Polanco at Second, and dispense with the Castro-Dobbs platoon?
Valdez is a career .233/.274/.327 hitter. He’s having a career year, but it’s still a very painful proposition.
I just question whether anything out there is enough better than them to justify spending the money and the prospects— it just does not seem like the choices are much better.
He did but that was before Utley was hurt. Dobbs and Polanco have started the last 3 games and have put a 3-12 (all singles), 2 BBs in 12 ABs. I would imagine that Dobbs will get the majority of playing time simply because of the lefty vs. RHP split. Problem is that neither guy has showed any punch and Castro never takes a damn BB.
That would make me pretty sad because it would indicate to me that this team is a little hesitant to take on the additional salary of a guy like Tejada.
Tejada doesn’t have much left in the tank at this point but he would be better than Dobbs defensively at 3B and even a .750 OPS with a .270-.280 AVG would be a huge lift in production.
I think that’s a wrong statement, at least with respect to Dobbs. Not that it’s impossible by any means, but I don’t think anyone has any idea what he’s “likely” to do with more at-bats. There’s obviously been something seriously wrong with him lately, but he still has a career OPS in the .700s and he seemed like a pretty good hitter less than 150 plate appearances ago. Recency is one consideration in interpreting stats, but do 130-140 recent horrible PAs outweigh 600 decent PAs that immediately preceded them? I don’t know, nor does anyone else. And so no one knows what Dobbs is “likely” to do.
One other positive
Is that trading for a INF also gets the offensively-inept Babock off the roster. Can’t imagine he sees a single AB unless Cholly gets into an extra innings game and literally has no one left on the bench.
At the rate they are going with catchers, they may have to DFA Bocock to make room on the 40 man roster for a catcher— they have only 2 healthy position players who are on the 40 man roster, but not the 25. The other possibility would be sending Utley to the 60 day DL, which would mean giving up hope of his returning sooner, and thus may be something that the organization is not willing to do.
I actually think the Bengie Molina trade might be a decent blueprint for a Lopez trade. I understand Lopez is much younger, but the Offensive numbers are eerily similar (both career and season averages). The Rangers may have gotten hosed in the long run, but they were trading from a bit of a desperate position as their Catchers have been God awful this year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
Related FanShots on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
- Josh Hamilton makes great catch, destroys part of fence at Safeco Field
