Phillies closing in on deal for starting pitcher. Possibly Roy Oswalt? Jayson Werth gone? zOMG Intrigue!
by WholeCamels on Jul 20, 2010 11:39 PM EDT
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PrintVarious outlets, including Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, and our own SB Nation, are reporting that the Phillies are close to a major trade that would bring a starting pitcher to the Phillies, and send newly-reviled-for-no-real-reason right fielder Jayson Werth out of town, possibly as part of a three-team deal. Stark and Olney both imply that Astros starter Roy Oswalt is the subject of many of the rumors.
Oswalt is owed $7 million for the rest of 2010, and $16 million for 2011, so presumably, any deal with Houston would require the Astros and Ed Wade kicking some cash back to his old protege Ruben Amaro, Jr., to cover the contract. Which probably means a bigger talent/prospect haul leaving Philadelphia. So long, Jarred Cosart.
While Oswalt is an excellent pitcher, I'm pretty nervous about what this trade portends for the team's future. This is not a team that can be "fixed" with one trade right now; the chances of making the postseason are rapidly fading. I want the front office to prepare for the future, and make the team younger, and soon. Moving talented prospects out of town does not help to that end.
More to come, I would imagine...
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Roy Oswalt, while a good pitcher, is not going to get this team into the playoffs this year, the offense will. The Phillies still need werth, he can turn it around. This is the exact knee-jerk reaction I don’t want Amaro to do! Especially if it involves prospects. This year is just a bizarro crap year, we should not do anything and just ride it out in my opinion. As much as I do not want to give up. Although maybe trading werth is amaro giving up? I just don’t know what to make of it all.
what site is that?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
No such site. I don’t recognize them.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Sweet Jehovah. A rotation of Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels/Garza/Blanton would be pretty good (if rather expensive).
Since we're talking never gonna happen
why not throw cliff lee in there next year
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Jul 21, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I was thinking Halladay, Hamels, Garza, Blanton and Happ which is plausibe…on our end. The Rays might beg to differ.
The rays would have a Price/Shields/Niemann/Davis/Helickson rotation which is nothing to sneeze at. I think Prying Shields, Garza, Niemann or Davis loose is a very realistic possibility. Helickson is a little more far fetched, but not entirely ludicrous (though not straight up for Werth).
Dear RAJ,
About this whole trading Werth and bringing in Oswalt thing. Just say no!
Thanks,
dannijd
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 12:01 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Isn't Cosart injured?
I thought I heard he was on the DL?
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 12:02 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Re-posted from elsewhere...
Two thoughts about this. First, with Stark talking about Werth being dealt in a counterpart trade to “replenish the farm system,” it’s bringing back terrible memories of December’s shitshow. Even the possibility that this will be two distinct deals scares the bejesus out of me. If it were a real 3-team trade with Werth and a prospect or two headed out and Oswalt and cash headed in, with the Werth recipient supplying the bulk of Houston’s haul, it would make some amount of sense. But I just have this innate fear that we’ll deal Singleton and Cosart for Oswalt, then turn around and "restock" with vastly inferior prospects via the pending Werth trade.
Second point: if the budget was such a huge deal that you traded Cliff Lee — or, even if you give the "replenish the farm" rationale 100% credibility, the budget was such a big deal that the Halladay deal hinges upon us getting $6 million from Toronto — then how the hell do you turn around and commit $25 million to Oswalt over the next year and a half
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 12:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Should add that ultimately I’ll wait to see what happens before passing judgment here, but I’m not entirely optimistic.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 12:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you’re looking at someone who thought they could win with a budget but know that if he doesn’t do SOMETHING attendance and revenue will drop from here on out. That’s my belief on how it works
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 21, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Reposted from this thread
So I guess the rumors that Amaro has a set of $100 plates and there is a room with an intagilo press 30 feet below the club house are true.
another re-post from me
Well, this sort of supports the idea that the Lee trade wasn’t really about the budget (for 2010). It was about not wanting to sign Lee long-term and also not wanting to lose him on the FA market. If we could have signed Lee to a hefty contract for only two years, I think they would have gotten it done.
The problem here is that Oswalt isn’t as good as Lee and he isn’t as good as his contract. And if he costs us a ton in prospects, that means we will have gotten ripped off.
JA Happ
…sas pulled from his start after 3 good innings in LV tonight. I haven’t heard that he got hurt, so at first I thought it was just because Moyer got hurt and he’d be called back up. Maybe there was another reason connected to these rumors though.
uh
Yes, Happ is getting called up and will start on Saturday or Sunday.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Per Matt Gelb and Todd Zolecki, Charlie Manuel said that Happ was being brought back to Philadelphia.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 12:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ok then. At least it seems like Happ has taken another step towards being right. Just in time to take Moyer’s spot.
Todd Zolecki had it right
From his Twitter feed tonight “The more I think about it, the Phillies haven’t had an injury in a little more than 3 weeks. They probably were due.”
Days with Phillies intended opening day pitching rotation intact: 0
Days with Phillies intended bullpen intact: 7
Days with Phillies intended starting 8 intact: 9
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 12:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The question is: is he truly right, or are they promoting him because they need someone for Moyer’s spot? All of this happening in a short time fram may just be coincidence… Or is it?
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 11:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
sorry i know it's gauche to re-post from another thread but:
One thing about Amaro is that when there are rumors, they are almost always true, or at least partly true. When the Halladay rumors first came out last year, I couldn’t even take them seriously. Usually reporters blow a lot of smoke before the truth comes out and the prospect haul we were supposed to be giving up just seemed totally unrealistic. But as it turned out, the initial rumors were very close to being right on-target.
The one thing I take some comfort in is that the Singleton and Cosart talk, so far, is just our own speculation, and their names haven’t been in the press yet. I’m still worried, but I’m not at Defcon 5 yet.
This smells like a move that’s being driven by (1) panic, (2) stupidity, and (3) Ruben’s incomprehensible, irrational fear of receiving compensation draft picks and of having to offer arbitration to anyone he might not want back even if there’s a 99% chance that the guy will turn down the offer. Ruben seems to view eliminating the potential for receiving compensation picks as a positive good.
I’m not sure what his seemingly irrational fear of compensation picks has to do with.
I read your post in the other thread, I agree.. I fear the talk shows will absolutely love it if Oswalt comes in. I think I might actually be happy with a Garza trade or some of Tampa’s prospects, though that would send the Smugometer through the stratosphere if he turned Werth into some of Tampas top prospects.
If he got Hellickson or something, even I might be OK with this. But there’s no way that happens, is there?
I keep saying Garza and Hellickson over and over in my head, if I convince myself its true, I might feel better and can sleep.
I think when RAJ mentioned Montero and Smoak while talking with Jack Z, he might have waved his hand and said “Those aren’t the prospects you are looking for, move along”
by EJL on Jul 21, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And he laughed at me when I told him to take his Watto plushie
by j reed on Jul 21, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Regarding your first sentence, are you saying you don’t understand why he has this irrational fear, or that you don’t understand how that irrational fear might be related to his decision-making? If the former, I don’t understand it either. If the latter, let me know and I can clarify what I mean.
Sorry, I have a habit of typing faster than I think… or is it the other way around :)
I can’t understand how RAJ has a job as a major league GM, but can’t understand the value of compensation picks and why he seems to have this irrational fear of getting them. Then again, Steve Phillips was a major league GM at one point and Omar M. still has a job in NY
Ah, I see. Yes, we’re in agreement.
I think it’s probably more the arbitration thing than the compensation thing. That is to say, I would posit that Ruben believes that the absolute worst thing that can ever happen to a team is for it to offer arbitration to a player who it might not want back and then have that player accept arbitration. I would further posit that Ruben thinks this is so bad that it is worth paying a premium to avoid any possibility of having that happen, even if the possibility of the player accepting arbitration in those circumstances is minuscule, and even if having the player come back on a one-year contract wouldn’t even be a bad thing.
I don’t know if I believe this hypothesis myself, but it would explain a lot if it were true. But it would also raise an equal number of questions, most notably, how can anyone be so dumb as to actually subscribe to that?
Ruben’s actual irrational fear is arbitration. The Phillies have settled all their arb cases since he became GM.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 21, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t they settle most of them before he became GM as well?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
That’s what I thought, that it was some sort of organizational thing not unique to Amaro
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah the Phillies have always been pretty good at settling arbtriation. And you are absolutely right TP, settling arbitration is a very good thing. I would venture to say it’s probably the best case scenario. I would imagine there has to be some hurt feelings by players when a team has to line up against you and outline all the reasons why you don’t deserve the money you are asking for.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
The last arbitration I remember them going to was Ryan Howard. He won, and got I think it was 10 mil from the team. Other than that, I think they have all settled.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was hoping it was more that Amaro felt for example
Trading Lee for 3 C grade prospects was safer than the draft picks because theres less risk involved as the prospects are slightly better known quantities than said picks….
However.. I fully believe you are correct. It very much seems like he thinks the worst possible outcome is the Rafael Soriano arbitration acceptance or a Greg Maddux acceptance. Its just not THAT bad. Bad contracts are tolerable if they are only one year in length.
However.. I fully believe you are correct. It very much seems like he thinks the worst possible outcome is the Rafael Soriano arbitration acceptance or a Greg Maddux acceptance. Its just not THAT bad. Bad contracts are tolerable if they are only one year in length.I find it odd that he fears arbitration (and giving someone a premium price who by all accounts has value, even though the type A and B ratings are based mostly on old style counting stats), yet he loves to give multi year deals to aging players instead of investing in youth.
Beat me to the punch.
I think the Mariners prospects were B or at least B- prospects, and I actually think he was right that the three of them were more valuable than picks. (This is why I’m not as bitter about that deal as some others are.) But that doesn’t mean that the picks plus one year of Lee wouldn’t have been better than the draft picks. Even I think they probably would have been, although I think it’s a close-enough call that I don’t get worked up about it. Still, it’s part of a pattern that evidences an underlying belief that makes no sense and bodes very poorly for our team’s future.
by taco pal on Jul 21, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If he really does believe this, it’s probably based on two events he saw when he was an assistant GM.
1. In 2005, we offer Placido Polanco arbitration, expecting him to turn it down so we can move a young Chase Utley into the starting lineup. Polanco unexpectedly accepts. Bowa puts Polanco, Utley, and David Bell in a three-man rotation at 2B and 3B until Polanco is traded midway through the year to the Tigers for Ugueth Urbina. The situation is uncomfortable and causes clubhouse tension.
2. In 2004, the Braves offer arbitration to Greg Maddux, expecting him to turn it down. He unexpectedly accepts, putting the Braves way over budget, forcing them to shop Kevin Millwood in a salary dump. They trade him to us for Johnny Estrada, making us the arguable odds-on favorite to win the division, except that it doesn’t pan out and the Braves win the division anyway.
The thing about both of these situations is that neither of them worked out that badly for either team. So if that’s the lesson he learned, it was the wrong lesson.
Kill me?
This year is shot. They cannot score enough runs to win behind Hamels and Halladay, ergo they will not score enough runs to win behind Oswalt. Especially when you remove the current second-best hitter on the team from the lineup and fill the hole with a rookie or Ben Francisco.
This is going to be worse than the rape for Cliff Lee.
that would be awesome.
The Kolb Era has begun....
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Jul 21, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Cosart
I swear if Cosart goes anywhere there will be blood. Take any of the 1st base prospects, just leave that man be goddammit.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 21, 2010 1:02 AM EDT reply actions
When I become world dictator, my first act will be the public hanging of WIP commentators I deem irredeemable, the rest will receive GULAG sentences.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 21, 2010 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
There are WIP commentators you find redeemable?
Please include 97.5 commentators in your sports radio pogrom as well – thank you
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I mean, for the most part Macnow and Gargano are idiots. But they are at least listenable, and Macnow demonstrates a limited ability to use logic and think clearly. If I am in the car in the middle of the day, I don’t have a problem listening to them, and I can usually handle it without being forced by frustration to change the channel.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
And with the same injury J.A. Happ had. I know that recovery times are somewhat individual, and that Moyer’s age means that a recovery may take longer, but was Happ’s recovery time from this injury typical? (I am trying to determine if this may be the last that we will see of Jamie Moyer in a Phillies uniform.)
I could see it. Upton seems to have worn out his welcome some and they have Jennings available to fill the spot next year (though Crawford is also leaving next year, so that muddies things a bit).
I am not that interested. He is currently hitting .229, part of a slipping pattern since batting .300 in 2007. His power numbers are also down— since hitting 24 home runs in 2007, his highest total is 11 last year. I do not see any reason to want him in Philadelphia. (Although I am going just on stats and the recent incident in Tampa where he and Carl Crawford had to be held back from a physical altercation).
It was Upton and Longoria not Crawford
"Bills everywhere, trill everything, and Drake just stand for Do Right And Kill Everything..."
RF is haunted
The Werth hating is just residual, irrational Abreu hate left over in RF. Now that Werth has a beard again, a certain percentage of the fan base probably thinks Abreu’s still out there.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 21, 2010 7:23 AM EDT reply actions
It’s really crazy. Just three months ago, people were angry about why we weren’t offering him whatever it took to extend him! Obviously the fans here are fickle and all, but I’ve never seen anyone’s public standing fall so far so fast.
Agreed. While the past couple of months has been aggravating, I don’t want him gone either. :(
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 10:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why the fixation on trading Werth?
Getting prospects with more of a track record than comp picks might be a reason — risk reduction, in essence. RAJ is probably telling everyone in Philly that he’s minimizing the beta here. Trading Werth now is the only way to make that happen. Brown may be viewed by management as being “ready”, which makes the team instantly younger and cheaper.
Oswalt, if available for 2 years, gives the Phillies a better shot next year, and, even if the team craps the bed next year too, Oswalt can be flipped at the trading deadline for…prospects. So on a “net” basis, there’s a shot that this might work, even if it does not result in a playoff appearance this year or next.
Oswalt is owed $16M in 2011, but a one year contract for $16M is far better than a 5-6 year deal at whatever Werth will haul in, likely $12M+/year, especially since Oswalt can (at worst) be liquidated for 2 picks after the end of 2011.
An Oswalt deal needs to be viewed as (likely):
Werth for
Oswalt 2010/2011 + whatever Oswalt brings if traded next year or picks if lost to FA
And a rotation of Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt/Blanton/Parts will:
1. Make the bullpen better (less abused, probably)
2. Reduce the need to score 5+ runs a game to win and
3. Reduce the need to go score a starter in FA (losing a draft pick) since next year looks like: Halladay/Hamels/Blanton(?)/Happ(?)/?
If Happ does return to reasonable 2009 form, he’s serviceable as a 4/5, and the team looks pretty set for starting pitching. While some players need to be extended (Rollins), the Phillies lose contracts for Ibanez (12)/Moyer(8)/Lidge(12)/Werth(7.5), Baez(2.7), Durbin (2), and Romero (4) over 2010/2011. Blanton jumps to 10M from 3M this year, though. Rollins needs to be paid, too.
I imagine Ibanez/Werth get replaced by Francisco (arb) and Brown (!). Bullpen could fill in with Schwimer/Mathieson/Aumont/parts without too much of a loss. What to do with Madson may depend on what he shows.
If Oswalt shows something over the next year, it is not inconceivable that the Phillies could extend him, too. It all depends. If he’s not extended, then look to the model above for how to analyze the trade of Werth — it could take years. Given Amaro’s model for Halladay, though, I suspect he is looking for a permanent addition of Oswalt, not a rental. If Oswalt would extend 2 years at a reasonable rate, maybe (he’ll be 33 this year), this deal might give the Phillies a Maddux/Glavine/Smotlz-ish staff for the next few years. That would be pretty huge.
Elite pitching is, IMO, harder to find than hitting/fielding. I’m not convinced that trading Werth right now would be bad going forward. It won’t really help this year, though.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 21, 2010 7:59 AM EDT reply actions
I agree with most of this but I am not sure if I want to see Rollins back after next year. I might have a totally different opinion if J-Roll wasn’t currently hitting as poorly as he is. Subtract his hot start and he is hitting like .195 or something disgusting like that. Still he is one of the best, if not the best defensive shortstop in the game and ATM we have no one in the minors even close to being ML ready to replace him. I guess for the right cost J-Roll could be worth it post 2011 but he can’t continue to be the lead off hitter….then again neither should Victorino but Charlie likes to trot him out there in the top spot.
Elite pitching is, IMO, harder to find than hitting/fielding. I’m not convinced that trading Werth right now would be bad going forward. It won’t really help this year, though.
That is pretty much how I feel about it as well. I am willing to take a shot if we can get some more pitching, but the issue, at least with this years squad is more about their lack of hitting than their lack of starting pitching. Sure there have been a ton of injuries but when guys are healthy they still aren’t producing…Vic, Werth, J-Roll, even Utley was in a horrible slump before his finger injury. This team as a whole(minus Roy, Cole and Polly)are just having an injury filled down year. It happens. If I have to write off this season and make a trade here or there to position myself better for next year then I am all for it.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Polanco.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Other than his lack of foot speed/ base stealing prowess, I like it.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 11:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well considering J-Roll and Vic don’t steal nearly as much as I think they should, at this point it’s about working the count and getting on base.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
And those details suggest that Polly is a better option than who the Phillies use now. Not that he is a great option. Which, I never once said he was.
But those are just details.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Jayson werth gets on base better than Placido Polanco, he should lead off
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Once again your arrogance doesn’t change anything. You made a snide comment that was useless since it did not address my original post.
I didn’t say that Polanco was the player best qualified to bat lead off for the Phillies. If I had than your comment above about Werth would almost hold water. But since my original statement was to the effect that Polanco is a better choice to lead off than Victorino and Rollins, which I even then backed up with numbers(which you claim I never do) you still then find the need to try and make useless comments.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
“Polanco doesn’t do either of those things very well”
That was the reply to your comment, and you ignored it, just curios, why isn’t your lack of defending your point with facts seen as arrogant by you?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t ignore T.P’s reply.
Looking at career numbers Polly gets on base better than both Vic and Jimmy.
In terms of P/PA J-Roll is at 3.66, Vic 3.64 and Polly 3.54.
So while Polly may not be a great option, he is better than both J-Roll and Vic, which is who Charlie is using at the lead off spot.
That was my reply to T.P.
T.P is absolutely right, Polanco doesn’t do either of those things(working the count and getting on base well) but as a whole he does them better than Jimmy and Vic. Which is what I said from the very beginning.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
It was hard to see your reply, what with you not using the reply button to make it be under TP’s.
I just took your argument to it’s absurd conclusion. Jayson Werth is getting on base better than Polanco this season, and possibly sees more pitches per plate appearance, so why not have him lead off.
I’m curios though why you think seeing LESS pitches per plate appearance than either Victorino or Rollins strenghtens your polanco argument?
Heck if all that matters to you is pitches and getting on base, talk to ryan howard or chase utley
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually my response which I put in a block quote above was infact a reply to T.P and I did use the reply button. Try hitting the up button on my original response from 8:27am and it will illustrate that for you since you can’t seem to figure it out on your own.
You didn’t take my arguement to any conclusion other than the one you assumed I was making because afterall, that is what you do. instead of discussing the point I was attempting to making you throw out your own version and claim it as mine.
As I said below, I screwed up the pitches per plate appearance arguement and I made the mistake, put the numbers out there to show my mistake and admitted it.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
And to respond to your second sentence….I did defend my point with facts, and when I later discovered that part of my initial facts were incorrected I stated that they were incorrect…hard to call someone arrogant when they admit their mistakes rather than continuing to argue a point despite flawed facts.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Looking at career numbers Polly gets on base better than both Vic and Jimmy.
In terms of P/PA J-Roll is at 3.66, Vic 3.64 and Polly 3.54.
So while Polly may not be a great option, he is better than both J-Roll and Vic, which is who Charlie is using at the lead off spot.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Which, for the record, I was only saying that Polly was a better option at lead off, which the numbers support, than Jimmy or Vic, not that Polly was an ideal lead off hitter, which the numbers also say he is not.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
So wait, you contradicted one of your own points (he doesn’t see more pitches per plate appearance) and then say it proves your point?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
As a whole, Polanco gets on base better than Jimmy and Vic, as it comes to working the count, Polanco is 3rd of the three, at the time I thought it was 2nd since J-Roll did not come up at all on the list that, but then when I had to scale it back based on plate appearances I then found out that J-Roll was actually highest of the three.
Unlike some, I admitted my mistake and even posted the numbers to show that I made a mistake.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Interesting…well I guess he finally saw the light….or he just wants to try something different.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Interesting take. For me it’s the risk of an aging pitcher with Halladay being the exception – Oswalt just isn’t what he was. However this injury risk concern is amped more so than usual by this year. As such, I’d much prefer Garza.
I’m with you. I’ll trade Werth if it means we get some good prospects and maybe a younger starter, like a Matt Garza, whose name I’ve seen mentioned. But Oswalt isn’t what he used to be and I really don’t think he’ll be worth the $16 million he’s owed next year. And even if Ed Wade eats some of that contract, the extra prospects we’d have to throw in would probably not be worth it.
The other thing, that’s been discussed above, is that if this is a three team deal, it can’t be like the Halladay / Lee trades. In all likelihood that would hurt us more than anything. I don’t know, I’m suspect of Amaro’s ability to make a three team deal after that one. An actual three team trade, where we give someone Werth who gives someone else prospects so we can get a starter, would be fine, but not of the Halladay / Lee variety.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you on the aging thing as a reason to not like Oswalt, but why is there an exception for Halladay?
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 11:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This doesn’t scream Halladay situation at me. I am 100% ok with trading Werth, I don’t think he plays into the long term future of this team anyway.
I would even be ok just keeping prospects for Werth. What I don’t want is to get bent over a barrel so that we can sign Oswalt for another 2 years.
Someone mentioned a Marcum trade earlier, and that makes much more sense to me.
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Two comments
First, I think you’re underestimating the contract commitments for next year. You’re right that Moyer, Werth, Romero and Durbin all come off the books, but Lidge, Baez and Ibañez don’t. I can’t access the spreadsheet on Cot’s right now, but I’m pretty sure the Phils have a ton of money already tied up next year. Oswalt would almost certainly put them up against whatever budget they’re setting (unless it’s being raised substantially) — as I said elsewhere, he represents your only real offseason move if you do this trade.
Secondly, while I agree that a simple Werth for Oswalt swap is certainly beneficial to the 2011 Phillies, I get the sense it’s not going to be that simple — there will be prospects involved, and this is where I don’t trust Amaro any further than I can throw him. I’m envisioning some nightmare scenario following December’s model, whereby Amaro swaps Cosart, Singleton and De Fratus for Oswalt, then “restocks” by flipping Werth to the Rays for Tim Beckham and Kyle Lobstein.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 8:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Beckham and Lobstein? Sign me up right now.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Of course.
But then again, not every day you can trade for a guy who is like a liftetime .250 hitter in the minors, never going above A ball.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Unless you’re dumping Bobby Abreu.
/CJ Henry’d
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 9:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is an important reminder that we shouldn’t get overly nostalgic about Pat Gillick either. Gillick was capable of some really stupid decisions, although he was still a better GM than Amaro.
I agree. Gillick certainly isn’t absolved from his share of stupid transactions, but what I think was Gillick’s saving grace was being able to identify the middle of the road type guys and get them on the cheap. Guys like Moyer, Werth, Dobbs(for the 2 years he was effective) Romero, Durbin etc. He never really made moves, at least in Philly for the top end guys like Amaro is doing. Obviously that is why we had a much better farm system under Gillick. If anything, Gillick got lucky that so many of the guys he traded for played above their career norms.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Our farm system actually might be better right now than it was at any point under Gillick. Ask me again on Saturday though.
You really think so? All the Top 50 prospects that you just mentioned below that we traded, were here during Gillick.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yes I do. You’re using hindsight here. Our farm system is ranked higher now than it was under Gillick. If anything, it was at its strongest at certain points of time under Wade. Also, Singleton was drafted by Amaro.
I would agree with you actually that the farm system probably was at its strongest when Wade was here. He and his team were very good at scouting and drafting but little else.
The farm system may be ranked higher now than it was say 2 years ago, but weren’t the players already in the farm system them? The farm being ranked what it is has as much to do with the guys there performaing as it does new people being brought in.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yes, but instruction is as important as acquisition in developing a prospect.
More to the point:
If you’re comparing a 2008 snapshot to a July 21, 2010 snapshot, the latter is stronger.
If what you’re looking at is the amount of talent we had in the system in 2008 (based on what we now know about those kids with the benefit of hindsight), then you’re making an apples-and-oranges comparison. We know how good the still-undeveloped 2008 kids turned out to be. We don’t know how good the still-undeveloped 2010 kids will be yet. You can’t compare 2008 with hindsight to a snapshot of 2010, while counting guys like Brown and Cosart only in the former and not in the latter.
Either way, you just can’t say “we had a much better farm system under Gillick.” Under one analysis, that’s wrong, and under the other analysis, we just don’t have enough information to draw that conclusion yet.
Well said. I agree with you there.
I guess I got caught up in seeing how many prospects RAJ has traded over the course of the last year or so. And without knowing how well this current crop developes you are right in saying that it is pretty hard to judge. You almost have to wait for RAJ’s reign to end before you can judge the farm system during his watch. Wade definitely had a stronger farm system than Gillick did. I think that is inarguable.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Sort of like that Chou En-Lai quote about how it was still too early to tell what the impact of the French Revolution was.
Do you think that Gillick would have been the same way in the last two years had he stayed? Or would winning a World Series have possibly changed his thinking as to who should be brought in, as the team could be more considered a real threat than before, making working to win now have more of a perceived upside?
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 11:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, Oswalt is under contract for 2011 and I think there’s a club option for 2012 at $16M
No extension appears to be necessary, unless at really favorable tems. It’s a lot of cash, but I don’t think it’s ridiculous money.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 21, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Any chance of getting a Yankees, Sox and Rays bidding war going? Certainly adding Werth to any of those teams gives them a better chance of taking the division unless the Sox are to injury ravished to bother.
I think the Yankees would be stupid to enter into a bidding war for Werth now when they could outbid everyone in the off season for him.
Oswalt’s contract in terms of money isn’t ridiculous but it is more than he is worth IMO.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I think the Yankees would be stupid to enter into a bidding war for Werth now when they could outbid everyone in the off season for him.
Of course. But I’m thinking as a move to block a division rival from aquiring Werth. If they can afford to out bid in the off season they could do it now as well, so it’d be a win, win for them. I’m wondering since they are exactly the prospect oriented that we could in a bidding war get get player X, plus a top tier prospect from them then let’s say just player x or to tier prospect x from the Rays.
Absolutely. You are correct and if they are that worried about the Sox or Rays they could get involved just to make life more difficult for those two teams. And they may very well end up doing just that.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Plus, it does not really make sense to add Werth to their current mix— while the Yankees can probably afford to do the deal, I don’t know that they add enough to their outfield to make it worth it by bringing him in.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 10:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I hear you completely. And as with last year, it’s the Oswalt part that is really going to anger me, more than the Werth part.
The Werth part won’t do lasting damage to this organization. It is highly annoying, but not so much for its practical impact as for its complete pointlessness and the fact that it evidences Amaro’s idiotic views on arbitration.
If we trade either Cosart or Singleton, let alone both, Amaro should be taken into the woods and beaten with crowbars. We’ve already traded four BA Top 50 prospects in the last two years. We’ve already doubled down on “Win Now”, we’ve even tripled down. Now we’re going to trade two more? Don’t people remember what happened to this franchise in the ‘80s? It’s outrageous that anyone could be so short sighted and stupid.
If we trade either Cosart or Singleton, let alone both, Amaro should be taken into the woods and beaten with crowbars.
If that happened, those two being traded…being beaten with crowbars is letting RAJ off way too easy.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I call dibbs on first strike if this happens.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I love how no one has rekindled this fire
Pedro Martinez anyone?
The Kolb Era has begun....
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
Didn’t someone mention in the game thread that Amaro was on the radio saying how offense was the biggest problem right now? How does replacing one of the few right handed bats with an unproven left handed bat help that out exactly?
Oswalt pitched games in which the offense scores 3 or less will probably lead to losses just as often as most other pitchers, no?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
I hope the players know that, cause I found it kind of insulting to the players
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
He wanted to be a dictator of a small sugar cane producing island?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
In Philadelphia, first you get the prospects, then you get the aces, then you get the women…
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
And that is my biggest issue with the notion of bringing in a pitcher. While I believe that pitching wins championships, it won’t matter if your offense can’t at least help to get you to the post season. Which is the issue the Phillies are having right now. With the exception of Blanton the starting pitching has actually been pretty good. Moyer and Kendrick have both pitched fairly well considering they are 4/5 type starters.
I don’t understand how trading Werth, even a struggling Werth improved the offense unless RAJ figures that trading Werth to get a pitcher, or prospects so that we can trade other prospects for a pitcher and then promoting Brown will somehow improve the offense and the rotation. That’s just a guess since I have no idea what RAJ is actually thinking.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
So is this going to be the pattern, make a big move but simultaneously trade away a helpful piece to try and limit the damage to the system?
Wouldn’t it be better to obtain a quality pitcher and KEEP werth for this season?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
It would…but if RAJ sticks to his mantra about wanting to have a quality farm system, since that was the reason he used for the Lee trade, they he can’t get a quality starter and keep Werth without trading prospects.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
The Amy lady who is a correspondent for ESPN First Take has Oswalt odds being traded at 60% this morning, mostly she said she increased her percentage because of the Olney and Stark reports. ESPN you self enforcing truth network you
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:37 AM EDT reply actions
The deal I’d prefer to make centers around Werth to Tampa for a guy like Garza.
Gets us younger and cheaper, probably helps for this year (Garza + Brown > Kendrick + Werth), doesn’t add a huge new contract.
No way we’re that lucky.
Tampa is (right now) more of a playoff team than the Phillies, would they do such a thing? They already have to worry about Carl Crawford in the offseason, Does the Werth Garza swap make Tampa better?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I have read that they’re looking to upgrade in the OF. And they’re always looking to shed future payroll commitments, and Garza is going to get more expensive in the next few years—by Tampa standards, not ours, and he’ll still cost something like a third of what Oswalt will, while delivering three quarters of the value at least.
Plus they’re utterly loaded in the high minors, with Hellickson et al.
But wouldn’t upgrading in the OF be a more of a long term thinking thing, not just half a season. To me, when I think of Tampa, I think of the Marlins model. COntending with mostly prospects and trading them when they are at high value, not for a rental but for more prospects. Maybe I’m wrong, but to me Garza is much cheaper than Werth and they can probably get more value in prospects for Garza than if they target a half year guy like Werth (even with his two draft pick compensation)
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I know it’s probably a formality, but has Oswalt said if he’d waive his NTC to come to Philadelphia?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:42 AM EDT reply actions
If he has, it has not been reported. Last I read, no actual deal was submitted to Oswalt for him to even make that decision.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I had read (mind you this was a couple of months ago, and I think the Phillies were still in first place) that Oswalt would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to come here. I laughed it off at the time, wondering since when Philly (with it’s believed to be homer happy ballpark) would become a hotbed for pitchers longing for a change of scenery.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 11:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haren
This almost goes without saying, but I sincerely hope that the organization’s focus is on Oswalt instead of Haren solely because of Arizona’s asking price for their ace.
Because while the Oswalt thing is still highly questionable if we’re only giving up Werth and a minor piece or two, it’d be be legitimate GM sabotage if we give up Cosart/Singleton/Colvin for Oswalt if such a package would’ve sufficed for Haren.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 10:56 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
But he’s ROY OSWALT
Most Phllies fans never heard of Dan Haren, and half of the ones who had confuse him with the guy that pitches (used to pitch?) for the cubs
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Rich Harden…he’s in Texas.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yeah, know his first name, just forget where he pitches, and he gets hurt a lot right?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
There is, unfortunately, some truth to this. Oswalt has “buzz” and Haren doesn’t. In the land of groupthink and demagoguery, that can be more important than the facts.
And a key issues/problem with how the Phillies run their organization make their moves (if its true). Getting the better pitcher and winning the games should be more important than the recognition.
If they feel Oswalt is the better value because of ability, great, but if it’s the name, then le sigh
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Perception, not truth, is always most most important in anything, unfortunately.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
In Philadelphia Phillie land that’s true. In better run sports organizations, it’s not true
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re obviously both very right about this.
Also worth noting is that MLB evaluators (scouts, GMs, etc.) don’t seem nearly as high on Haren as we are. Dave Cameron said as much in the recap piece to his trade value series on Fangraphs (can’t link it from my goddamn phone), saying that many see him as a command of decent stuff type that can be overvalued by looking at his numbers. If that’s the general sentiment on him, I can’t imagine the Phillies, of all organizations, would buck that trend.
Can’t you just picture Amaro saying, “Yeah, Haren’s good for a guy who doesn’t throw hard, but ROY OSWALT IS A TEXAS FLAMETHROWER!”
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 11:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh definitely. Then again, Haren is five inches taller than Oswalt, and you know how this organization loves tall pitchers.
The problem with Amaro, in my view, isn’t that he is unduly influenced by public opinion, but that he too often agrees with public opinion. Don’t forget what city Ruben grew up in.
Haren is five inches taller than Oswalt, and you know how this organization loves tall pitchers.
So is that true or are you joking. Can’t tell
I’m joking that this would actually make much of a difference in this situation. I am not joking about the fact that Haren is five inches taller than Oswalt. Nor am I joking about the fact that the organization LOVES tall pitchers. They really do.
Isn’t there a scouting maxim about short pitchers that Oswalt has sort of disproved (at least in his case?)
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not aware of any maxim. There is a general preference throughout the industry for tall pitchers, which is actually rational as they are a better bet not to get injured. The Phillies just have an unusually strong preference on that, but even the Phillies make exceptions from time to time (they drafted Kyle Drabek, for instance). I wouldn’t say Oswalt “disproved” anything since no one believes the rule to be absolute, he is just one of the exceptions to the rule. The Phillies, I think, have a tendency to overemphasize height, but I don’t think it would stop them here, since Oswalt is now a known commodity.
Wouldn’t Wagner be a fairly “big” exception to that rule as well? I think he is roughly 2 inches shorter than Oswalt.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
He and Larry Brown bred in the same labs
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The theory is that the taller the pitcher the more steep the angle of attack of the pitch which could increase the chances of a glancing blow (staying off the barrel of the bat). What pitchers refer to as being on top of the ball.
Batters often say that it is harder for them to pick up the ball from taller pitchers.
I’d say that the a long limbed pitcher with a 3/4 arm slot could when pitching to same handed batters (RH batter vs.RH pitcher) be more deceptive because the ball would leave the pitcher’s hand more peripherally to the batter’s line of sight.
Quick look at fangraphs, here is camerons blog archive
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
The stadiums already filled to capacity almost every night. We dont need ‘buzz’, we need the better player. Gotta think RAJ realizes that.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 21, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
84 straight sellouts, if you don’t count the 3 Toronto “Away” games, of which only 1 was a sellout. Overall those 3 were at 99.3% of capacity.
Well yeah that’s pretty amazing. But considering its a football town for the most part, it’s pretty cool to see 84 straight sell outs.
I think of it as more of a hockey team, you can tell the kind of sports town a city is not by how the fans are when the team is up – but when they are down.
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The hockey fan base is kind of a cult following though. Flyers fans are more loyal than other fans, but they’re not as broad-based.
I think Philadelphia is as much a baseball town as a football town. It’s just that this was hidden from view because the baseball team was down for so long beginning in the late ’80s, while the football team was up for most of that same time period.
Well like I said, a town is defined by how its fans react in the ‘leaner’ years. The Eagles haven’t had any in a while so not sure how to define it, but I’m pretty sure the flyers are consistently selling out even when lean, aren’t they?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Flyers small, fiercely loyal. But a baseball town, it just isn’t. Lived in D.C. Strictly a football town. Came back to Philly in ‘08 and I thought well cool I’m gonna be in a baseball town now. Nope still feels like football to me. Same football vibe i got from DC.
It’s just that this was hidden from view. You got Baseba’al googles on. Which is cool.
Though, Banner the youngins’ belong to Baseba’al now so I think the foundation is there.
That is what I have been thinking— I have been to Boston, and while they love their Patriots, it is truly Red Sox nation up there— A baseball town that loves football. I think Philadelphia is the other side of the coin— it is not that the Phillies are not loved… they are, but it is still very much a football town.
Not if you take a longer view of things. People who remember what it was like to live in Philadelphia in the ’60s, ’70s, and early ’80s will tell you that it was just as much a baseball town as a football town historically. The situation you have observed is a product of temporary circumstances.
People who say it’s only a football town — cough Cataldi cough — haven’t been here long enough to remember what this place was like when the Eagles either 1) didn’t exist or 2) largely stunk.
The Flyers don’t have very many losing seasons, either, so it’s tough to say what the fanbase would be like in leaner years. They were great a few years ago when they finished dead last in the league, but Ed Snider’s win now approach does not allow for much rebuilding.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
The situation you have observed is a product of temporary circumstances
I’m alive now, all I have are temporary circumstances. Well historically speaking, yes it definitey was when the A’s reigned. I was here in the 70’s and 80’s. When I was a kid the Flyers and Phillies co-owned the city but with the majority shares to the Flyers until Phillies finally got there shit together by the 80’s WS but by that time all the teams were good. My earliest childhood memories were banging pots and pans when the Flyers wonback to back cups. All of my family down to 2nd cousins, blood and thru marriage were born and raised in Philly. My great unlce who died a 2 years ago saw the ‘29-’30 Connie Mack’s A’s play, my dad went to to see the Phillies and A’s play every Sunday after mass, I have aunt and uncles who watched the A’s from the roof tops of their houses when they were kids….My dad and my 2nd cousin stuck with the Phillies but for the most part the rest of the family were not Phillies fans. ‘’yeah, the bums, I’ll believe it when I see it." I heard that alot. When they were kids the Eagles were are champions. And when the Philles won in the 80 I remember my uncles’ telling me “don’t get used to it.” And once they fell apart after the Wheeze Kids my grandfather and great uncle disowned them. For them this was like the second coming of the A’s that never really happened. Alot of mixed feeling about the Phillies in my family. Still.
I think the Eagles also were fortunate to establish itself as football took the National Pastime crown away from baseball an so the Eagles benefited by having a generation of people who grew up breast-fed on football. In my neighborhood, I know a good number of people who can talk Phillies but not baseball, the only 3 people I can do that with is 1 Yankees fan across the way and 2 Mets fans down the street. Now you start up talking football and it’s like suddenly your at the FermiLab listening to lectures on dark matter. So my experience has been a bit different.
Oh, I want Oswalt. Make no mistake about that. Last pitcher to have back to back 20 win seasons if I remember correctly. He is still one of the dominant pitchers in this game. He is having another great year, this time on a terrible team.
But I don’t want to “REPLENISH THE FARM SYSTEM”!!!!! Trade the really young guys, keep Werth & Brown. This all could have been avoided if we just kept Lee. Now RAJ is ALMOST 2nd guessing himself on every interview he does.
TEH WINZ!
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
No whining when this team blows in 2014 because you traded the “really young guys”
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, so wins are important to you
Oswalt is 6-11 this year
He sucks
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at the team he plays for. Look at his stats. ERA of 3.12. 117 K to 33BB. He has a bad record because of the team he plays for. Look at numbers.
And how long have you guys been fans of this team? 9/10 times, prospects don’t work. You should all know that buy now. Yes, we have a nice core of guys who were once Prospects. But that doesn’t happen often. Most guys are misses, not hits. By trading the young guys like we did with Knapp, you are shipping out unproven guys for proven talent.
I’m sure you’ve done a rigorous study to come up with that 9/10 figure.
You do realize, don’t you, that when you develop a prospect who turns into a good player, he is much more valuable than a good player who you get from another team, since you don’t have to pay him a full salary and therefore can then afford to have two good players for the price of one? Or actually, you probably didn’t know that.
But they’re just prospects!!!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s so unbelievably f**king annoying that people can be this stupid. It makes me wonder if Dozer is just a sock puppet who’s just here to pull our chains.
Don’t people remember why our team went into the s**tter in the ‘80s? It wasn’t that long ago! It’s like watching people who just got out of bankruptcy start maxing out their credit cards again. “Well, we all know that investments go belly up 9/10 times! They’re unproven, unlike this plasma TV which is a proven commodity!”
Of course they don’t…people (in general) don’t remember the root causes of something (even if they ever understood the acutal causes) as much as how the history is rewritten.
the current recession is completely blamed on the most recent former president, however the one before him had a great helping hand in it, too complicated for most people to get though
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, not trying to stir a political debate, but trying to example how the easiest (and most reported) explanation, true or not, is usually the accepted one, and the farther away from something people the fuzzier the recollections.
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
my favorite are the “bail out the public” credit help ads.
How stupid can you get?
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
And how long have you guys been fans of this team? 9/10 times, prospects don’t work.
In case I wasn’t clear enough before, this statement of yours is total bullshit. You have no proof for that statement, you haven’t thought it through, and you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.
Basically, you want immediate gratification because you’re an immature, short-sighted person with no capacity for self-control, and you are willing to make stuff up in order to try and get it.
I’m sorry, but name calling over the anonymous inter-web is not immature then?
No, I have not gone through every single prospect in club history and fact checked against other sites to see who panned out and who didn’t. Good job capt. toughguy. But realize this, MOST PROSPECTS DO NOT WORK OUT. Yes, when one does work out, there value is tremendous. But most people sit in prospect hell Look at KC, Cinn, Cleve, . Isn’t this the same crowd that flipped out when we shipped out Lee for prospects? And please don’t someone come on here and say “Well I never thought that”.
When you rely on only prospects, you lose. This team, this core, is built for the next 3-4 yrs. That is the window to win with this team. So, when you can acquire a top notch talent like Roy Oswalt for some guys who may or may not work out, you take the chance. At that time, you have the next 3-4 yrs to build up any missing pieces in the farm system. If you don’t have the pieces to get rid of, well maybe you shouldn’t be spending then.
If you want to have an intelligent sports convo, I am all for it. If you want to act like children on a message board, that is ok too. But don’t just through around insults like you are SOOO much more the phillies fan then everyone else. People always trying to prove points like they are so much better than everyone else. Make stuff up, buddy, look at the numbers, I don’t need to recall names to be able to tell people what they should already know, MOST PROSPECTS DO NOT PAN OUT. IF THEY DID, NO ONE WOULD EVER NEED TO REBUILD. EVER.
Sometimes complete and total ignorance gets his dander up, forgive him for not replying to your lack of facts properly
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks. Personally, I think the only informative sentence in that comment was this one:
No, I have not gone through every single prospect in club history and fact checked against other sites to see who panned out and who didn’t.
Great, so you don’t have any basis for your opinion then. There’s a shocker.
No problem, you were hella more polite than I would have been (in my opinion)
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
But don’t you understand that this “window is closing” theory is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy if you keep clearing out the farm system?
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
I do. But I am talking about this core of players. Their window is closing. There is nothing wrong with building for the future. That is how you win, with a combo of home grown talent & FA to fill in the gaps. I am not saying get rid of everyone in the cupboard. But if you can trade a Tyson Gillies for Roy Oswalt, I don’t see the problem with that. I understand that the odds of that happening are not great. I am not saying get rid of Dom. Brown or Jarred Cosart, but someone farther down the system, like Jason Knapp was last yr, that is ok. You can rebuild and still remain competitive. The Braves are a perfect example of that.
They are actually the only two Roys in the majors right now. Jonathan Broxton’s middle name is Roy, however.
Technically Roy Oswalt is the only Roy in the majors.
Roy Halladay’s first name is Harry.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Harry Halladay?
Thats just cruel parenting
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably why he goes with Roy…
Harry Leroy Halladay is his full name.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
He’d be cooler if he went by Leroy
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m a bit worried about the gaps that would need to be filled in the off season even with the ascendancy of Brown and addition of Oswalt
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
This is where I’m at. Oswalt would represent roughly $150 million tied up for next year,* with gaping holes still to fill in the bullpen and on the bench. If the payroll is slated to be $165 million, then by all means, but I somehow doubt it.
*I realize the Astros could kick in money, but that would necessitate shipping even better prospects their way. For evidence as to why this is generally a bad idea, see: Santana, Carlos.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Plus there might be a problem in left field next year
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
‘Gaping holes’ in the bullpen and bench dont really worry me. If your going to have holes, those are probably the places that you want them. Plus, we have some decent RPs in the system.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 21, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I semi-agree. If having a weakness in one area of your team is the price you pay for having a super-strength at another area, then that isn’t necessarily a bad thing (provided that your super-strength is in qualitative not quantitative – obviously, having two good players who play the same position is just a waste). The crucial question here is whether Oswalt is worth his contract + the price we have to pay for him. If he is, then it’s OK that he weakens other areas of the team. If he isn’t, then it’s not.
The question should include whether or not he hamstrings the teams abiity to make moves going forward as well (in my opinion) that’s part of the unseen costs (to me). NOt sure if you were implying that’s there or not.
Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Happ
Adding Oswalt is nice for the next couple years, but does he make the pitching that much better that the hit to the budget (in addition to the prospects) worth it?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
The way I would frame this is that he would change the risk/reward calculation. When you put your budgetary eggs in a smaller number of baskets, you’re improving the quality of your team if all goes well, at the expense of worsening the quality of your team if things go wrong. In theory, if everyone’s making the money they’re worth, then the “expected” quality level of your team remains constant, but the potential variance is different depending on which road you choose.
Damn, all of that seems to make sense but most of it went over my head.
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Problem with holes in the bench is that were an aging team which means the bench should be used more often. Beside no one wants to sit on holey bench
If the bench is holey won’t that make them closer to god?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully there are more (any) compelling reasons than that
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Are we sure that it does?
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
he did get us cliff lee & not give the blue jays everything in the farm
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Jul 21, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is overshadowed by the fact that the Mariners just got a better prospect package from the Rangers for 3 months of Lee than what Seattle gave the Phillies for a year of him.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
From the Astros – “nothing imminent”
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
I dont think anyone ever wanted Happ, especially now.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 21, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
JP Ricciardi seemed to want him last year.
Anyway, there’s no way we should trade Happ now. The goal is to sell high, not sell low. Happ is way undervalued right now because of his injury. He was overvalued last year, but he’s still a pretty good pitcher and I’d much rather keep him around than sell him for cents on the dollar.
I thought Ricciardi DIDNT want thim. Thats why the trade never happened, he was waiting for us to replace Happ with Drabek, which we didnt do until he left.
Plus, I thought that GMs dont really do the whole sell high/low thing.
And while were on the subject, isnt it possible that Happ was just really high last year, since he was never a top prospect and always viewed more as a #5 guy.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 21, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Happ was lucky last year, we discussed that here at great length over the offseason. At the same time, he does have some good attributes, most notably the ability to strike people out, which he has had all throughout his professional career.
I always thought Happ was an underrated prospect when he was in the minors. I don’t know that #5 is really his ceiling.
He also seems to be very good at damage control. I know that isn’t an actual stat.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I think “damage control” is mostly luck. There was a time when people thought Kyle Kendrick’s greatest skill was damage control.
Yeah I would agree that there is definitely a lot of luck involved but I think something can also be said for a guy who bears down and makes pitches when he absolutely has to as opposed to not.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
never really believed in clutch. I think that just goes back to the whole being lucky thing Taco was talking about
by philiafan14364 on Jul 21, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions