Some Phillies Links for You, July 21, 2010: Trade Winds, Moyer to DL
Howard's end - Finger Food
At the outset, I reject the premise that the late-season games mean more, although Finger predicates the point by saying the games "seem" to be more important, which is fair and does tend to influence MVP voters. What's all-but undeniable is that Ryan Howard is a second half player, which is pretty nice to have.
Major move? With Moyer hurt, team ponders trade. | Philadelphia Inquirer | 07/21/2010
Ruben Amaro Jr. wore one of those patented smug looks on his face before Tuesday's game.
FACT: The Good Phight gets a royalty every time someone uses the word "smug" to describe Ruben Amaro, Jr.
Oswalt moving to Philly and Werth moving out?
As our brilliant leaders discussed in our other threads related to this (pending?) deal, this has the promise of satisfying the Talk Radio Crowd in multiple, detrimental ways.
Punchless Phils Lose Ageless Moyer (Perhaps For Good)
Yeah, if this knocks Jamie Moyer out for the rest of the season, is he done forever? There's no recovery track record here.
Jamie Moyer Headed To DL - SB Nation Philly
Moyer has confounded all of us at different points in his career, but lack of contract combined with this injury, means it's more than likely that Moyer is done in Philly.
Phillies working "very, very aggressively" to move Werth
Public opinion changes in this town awfully quickly.
Haren wants to stay ... but open to a trade
I really hope Amaro has at least inquired about this guy.
Amaro expects to be a buyer, holds Phillies players accountable
It really only makes sense to "buy" in this context if you get player cheaply, or if you can control him past this season (i.e., Haren, Oswalt).
SeaWolves lose wild one to Reading Phillies
Hey, would you look at that!
Pettis sent to bullpen
Trying to keep innings pitched totals under control. Very encouraging debut for this late round pick.
Braves Beat Padres 4-1 Behind Diaz, Jurrjens, and Heyward - Talking Chop
Feels like old times...
Mets 2, Diamondbacks 3 - Baseball Has Been Barry Good To Us - AZ Snakepit
The hot (!) Diamondbacks stop the Mets, who have been playing about as badly as the Phillies since the Break.
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Going against my better judgement, I tuned into the Mike Missanelli show yesterday, only to hear him detailing a two-part plan to save the Phillies: 1) Trade for a pitched better than anyone else they have (!?), and 2) Bring up Dom Brown.
Suffice it to say, I switched off, but it’s really getting to a whole new level now that the playoffs aren’t looking so hot. I’m terrified that RAJ is letting it go to his head, and I’m praying to Baseba’al that Oswalt (if really the target) invokes his no-trade clause and saves the team from itself.
Pitching is not going to make a big difference this year if the offense remains this way.
But if they can lock up a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for 2+ years without losing a top prospect in the process, this might not be a bad idea.
Fair enough, but, at the risk of gilding the lily from the other thread, I don’t trust RAJ to walk away if the asking price is too high, and I’d be really bummed if they lost Colvin, Cosart, or Singleton to this trade.
agreed
my confidence in RAJ is not high right now, due almost entirely to the Howard deal.
Regarding most of his other deals, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach; although the Ibanez deal is looking bad right now and the Moyer deal was never good and is now in its last death throes – he almost got lucky on that one, with the way Moyer was throwing this year
If we lose any one of the three, Amaro should be fired.
If we lose TWO of the three, Amaro should be beaten.
I know the prospect names haven’t been reported yet, that it’s just our own speculation. But if we’re right… I can’t believe that we might trade away SIX top-50 Baseball America prospects in the space of less than a year. I can understand that trading some of them was justified, but how many times are you going to keep doubling down, Ruben? We already had a WS title, and with a little foresight we could have set ourselves up with a chance to turn into a future juggernaut. Now it looks like we may throw it all away for short term gain that pans out into nothing.
The recent news about the talent in Lakewood was almost redemptive. It was like we were given a second chance – despite trading away so much minor league talent over the past year and betting everything on the here and now, we somehow avoided any consequences for it. We had a new lease on life. So what’s Ruben going to do? He’s going to liquidate the farm again. I think he’s going to keep on doing it until the talent stops coming back.
Hanged, drawn, quartered. And then fired.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Amen. I also would fire Amaro if he weakens the team offensively through trades, which amounts to giving up on this season.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 21, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Well then you should get ready to fire him – trading werth weakens the team offensively
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably. I’m just keeping my powder dry until Amaro completes his transactions.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 21, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I would not go that far. While I do not want Werth traded, I think whether that is an offense worthy of termination depends on what he gets back for him.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 12:37 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How many good games have Halladay and Hamels pitched with nothing to show for it?
If the offense is not improved, adding another good pitcher will not correct our biggest problem. It will just mean we have more well pitched losses.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 21, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
We’ll have more well pitched losses, but also more well pitched wins and fewer poorly pitched losses and poorly pitched wins.
It would still improve our team and our W-L record. I have objections, but they are based on other reasons.
That’s true if we add another good pitcher, but do not weaken an already anemic offense. We should be trying to add to our offense, not subtract.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 21, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
When does the arb clock start ticking on Brown?
Sept 1?
Next year?
If Sept 1, then they should take the “win (or lose) with what we’ve got” approach and wait.
If next year, then screw it: bring him up.
Bringing him up now could be detrimental is he isn’t ready to handle the pressures associated with a playoff push, as unlikely as that might seem right now. If you trade Werth, then a Francisco / Mayberry platoon may be a better option. Wait until September on Brown, he only has, what, 20 games above AA right now? Rushing guys to the majors before they’re fully prepared can hurt their development, especially if they come up and are completely overwhelmed by it all.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
They've fielded a AAAA team most of the season, so why stop now?
yes, you’re right.
I was only responding to the binary Brown vs Werth proposition.
But I agree that Brown’s development is crucial, and they should take care to ensure that he is not rushed or unduly pressured.
The arbitration clock starts the second he’s called up, regardless of when it is.
Here’s a brief explanation: http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works
ok, my question was shorthand
there have been several comments / posts this year about arbitration scenarios. Since they’re boring, I tend to skim over them.
Now I want to know: what is the long-term arbitration impact of bringing him up now vs 9/1 vs 2011; ie, how long can they control him at a cost level that will enable them to address other deficiencies on the team.
So what you’re saying is, since you don’t feel like learning about the subject, you just want someone to do the math for you? Ok then,
At this point in the season, if Brown is called up, and at no point in the future is ever sent to the minors, it will have zero impact on his arbitration. It would be:
2010 – league min
2011 – league min
2012 – league min
2013 – league min
2014 – 1st arb
2015 – 2nd arb
2016 – 3rd arb
2017 FA
However if he goes down at any point, it could affect his future arb eligibility. For example, if he comes up in September, he will get 30 days of ML service. If he comes up now, he’ll get about 90 days of ML service. If he stays up permanently from here on out, none of that would make it possible for him to be a super 2. Does this make sense to you?
The IDEAL scenario would be to let Dom mature in AAA until May 31st (I think) of next year, at which point if he became a permanent member of the team it would be impossible for him to be a super two.
His first Arb year would then be 2015, thus getting the maximum return while making sure he is ready for the bigs.
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
A Year of Service under the CBA is 172 Days of Service, which is also the maximum number of Days of Service credited in a single season.
In 2010, I believe that players brought up either on or after April 15 would have their free agency forestalled by a year.
For Brown, his first Year of Service would occur potentially in 2011. We’d have to check the calendar to see when the 2011 regular season begins and ends to get a precise count, but, if Brown is brought up on September 1 this season and the 2011 calendar were the same as 2010’s, Brown would have to be held in the minors until either on or after May 15 to delay his free agency until 2018. Of course, he could also be sent to the minors at any time in 2011 to prevent his accumulating the necessary 172 Days of Service in 2010 and 2011 combined to be credited with his first Year of Service.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 21, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
This is all concerning me a lot, but I have to admit, it would be easier for me to stomach if Amaro wasn’t such a smarmy jackass. As I’ve said before, he exudes this prep-school arrogance that is really offputting. Of course, if he was a good GM, it wouldn’t bother me as much.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
All of this makes me think another “three-team trade” similar to the Halladay/Lee deal. Which cannot be good for this team in the long run, and certainly not beyond 2011 if Oswalt is the target. But you’re right, if he made deals like the original Cliff Lee trade all the time then this would all be OK.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
In this case, I have read it not as prep school arrogance but as NE Philly jerkishness. But YMMV. Either way, it’s irritating.
again with the NE Philly jabs
Come on TP, you’re better than this lol
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 21, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, why take shots at NE Philly when Cherry Hill is always available and a much more worthy target
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I always thought of Cherry Hill’s reputation as basically being a JV version of Lower Merion or Radnor or someplace like that. Obviously, there are jerks from all those places, but it’s hard to distinguish any one of them from the others.
Radnor is a JV version of Lower Merion
Chery Hill wishes it could be a JV version of Radnor
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
And I’ve met a lot of jerks from Cherry Hill
In fact, all I’ve met from Cherry Hill is jerks
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Pfft. I went to Radnor (go ahead and judge) and I don’t like this portrayal.
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
was he the infamous “I’m in charge” guy?
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
they also have a professor infamous for confusing the anus and the vagina in anatomy class.
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
wish I knew what there was to pity.
I am starting to think you went to LM.
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I absolutely agree. However, when looking at the rest of the city (with the exception of the Main Line and other pockets), I’d rather be surrounded by jerks than in a dangerous neighborhood
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 21, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
“Better to be surrounded by jerks than crime”
Funny, that is what the sign says when you are entering Roxborough.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
lol
on top of your game today I see
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 21, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone I ever knew from the Northeast was either Russian, Latino, or Chinese. None of them were jerks.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
What generation are you from?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
So you are roughly 12 years older than me?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
They were from the other side of the boulevard, weren’t they FM?
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 21, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Werth for Oswalt - Werth WAR/value since Phillies signed him
I know this really isn’t relevant, but if we were looking, say 3 years ago, (when admittedly Werth and Oswalt were different quantities) at Werth for Oswalt, it would have been a “you’re high” moment.
How great is it that the Phillies found Werth on the trash heap in 2006? That was a seriously great signing. 12.8 WAR over 4 years for 12 million bucks. That was a pretty good awesome series of deals (sign/resign for two years).
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 21, 2010 9:21 AM EDT reply actions
As for Moyer...
Probably stating the obvious here, but it’s up to him whether he ever pitches for the Phillies again. I hesitate to say he’ll hang ‘em up because we thought the same thing with last year’s injury — and there he was in spring training, ahead of his rehab schedule. I also can’t help but feel like he wants to keep pitching, even if he’ll need to sit out the rest of the year.
The contract situation, or lack thereof, is interesting. At this point, I can really only see him winding up in one of two places: Philadelphia or Seattle. (Incidentally, I do think Jack Z would have some interest depending on Moyer’s demands; at worst, Trader Jack would have a tradeable asset on hand for next deadline). Time will tell, but I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see Moyer back in red pinstripes next year.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 21, 2010 10:01 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
on the flipside
I wouldn’t be shocked if he left, either.
Seattle might be the best place for him anyway, with his pretty severe homerlicious tendencies.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 21, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it’s 50/50. I kind of hope he comes back, provided that the rest of the rotation is made solid and reliable. (This does NOT mean I want Oswalt.)
Me too. While his last two starts (not counting last night) were bad, he was having an overall good season, and I do not want him to go out this way. While one of the big parks out west may make more sense with his homer happy tendencies, I would like to see him here.
by dannijd on Jul 21, 2010 10:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I really do hope Moyer comes back to Philly.
Both after this injury (hopefully it’s a short one) and for next season.
He’d probably make a solid addition to the coaching staff
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
That's very true.
He’d be a damn sight better than Dubee, I believe.
by Phrozen on Jul 21, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Or, for that matter, the 1979 Phillies. Bill Conlin, of all people, actually made a good point about this the other day. I didn’t read his column, but the headline made a good point, at least. Do not overreact to down years. Do not do long-term damage to your franchise just to prove that you’re a Man of Action.
I see more parallels to 1981, though I’d say the minor league talent then was more advanced.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 21, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I can only think of one decent way for this to work
And that would be a three team trade with Houston and Tampa (or really anyone else) in which Tampa gives Houston prospects, and we ship them Werth to get Oswalt. And even in that case, Oswalt’s contract is so big I really don’t think it would be worth it for the year and a half we’d get him for. Unless we pulled a Cliff Lee on him.
I don’t know, I don’t think I like these trade rumors. I’m against it if we have to give up any of Cosart, Singleton, or Colvin. And if we don’t give them up, we probably have to eat all of Oswalt’s contract. It’s pretty easy for Amaro to really screw this up, and I’m sure he will.
question
Let’s take as a given, for the moment, my hypothesis that Amaro’s decisions are driven by an idiotic irrational fear of offering arbitration to players when he isn’t sure whether he wants them back or whether they will accept or decline.
If we trade for Oswalt this year, and Oswalt doesn’t agree on a long-term extension, does that mean we’re going to turn around and trade Oswalt in the off-season? He has an option, I believe, which distinguishes him from Lee a bit. But will we then trade him after 2011? If we don’t, will we not offer him arbitration after 2012?
It’s like a never ending cycle.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 21, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I believe it was you TP, who did an excellent post many months ago titled something like “Does Ruben Get It” or “Is it Time to Trust Ruben” or something to that effect. (I looked and can’t find it). I’d like to read it again if you have it. It seems to me that it might to time (in only a few short months) to completely revisit this topic. I certainly don’t trust him anymore.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It was dajafi. (Whew!)
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2009/11/19/1165179/is-it-time-to-trust-the-phillies
I was thinking of the one you authored titled “Ruben Gets It” back in February. One thing of interest that you wrote:
The point of all of this is to say, although the execution of these trades may not have been the best, in the long run the most important thing is for the GM to have the right philosophy. And Ruben appears to have it.
As I read it, his quote is a flat rejection of the commonly-held notion that the Phils only have a short “window of opportunity” to contend and thus should bet everything they have on the here-and-now. He’s right to reject that notion because it’s bunk. There is no window. We can stay in contention indefinitely if we play our cards right. Any transactions we make should therefore be value-driven and time-neutral.
I still completely agree with your reasoning and statements. But RAJ’s present conduct suggests to me that he possibly no longer adheres to that philosophy.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Dajafi wrote:
But I do enjoy the feeling, for the first time in more than a quarter century, that the people running my favorite baseball team have more of a clue than I do.
I think we all felt that way. I’m not so sure anymore.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The Howard contract shook a lot of people’s confidence. I actually felt and continue to feel some equanimity about that deal. Maybe I’m just overreacting to the recent rumors. But if the worst case scenario comes to fruition, I think I’m turning my back on Ruben for good.
I think we’re all about to see some bona fide first class “smug” coming from his mouth in the coming days…
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
TP I know you know more than me on this stuff. Did they really need to give Howard that contract when they did? I feel it upset the team, maybe werth and others don’t feel he is worth it.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
They didn’t have to do anything. They did run the risk of the price getting even higher if they waited though. I don’t think that risk was huge considering that they gave him a very large contract anyway, but it was there.
I wouldn’t place much stock in this psychological explanation for the team’s struggles. It’s much too speculative.
Well, taking montrero for Lee and moving him to first would have helped :)
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Iam always a little speculative. But it did answer that like I thought they didn’t need to pull that trigger yet.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 21, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
My Nightmare:
Werth to Tampa, Hellickson and maybe someone else to Houston, and Oswalt to Philadelphia.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 21, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
As long as the “someone else” isn’t Cosart, Colvin, or Singleton, I’d actually breathe a sigh of relief at that.
I guess that’s not my nightmare but more my less preferred scenario. While I want to win now, I think I would rather Hellickson for the future than Oswalt.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 21, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Phils need starting pitching that now seems would cost more than keeping Lee I just don’t understand why they got rid of him. It is like the Phils planned to never have injuries or players to have down time. This is what I thought would happen when Lee got traded we would need him and sell the Farm for a guy not as good ( to me). If it were me I would shit this season out and plan for next. A drastic move here could mean a decade of shitty teams or close to it.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
Lee would have been gone after 2010. Oswalt is under contract for 2011 with an option for 2012. Haren’s contract runs through 2013.
Again, I have objections to the rumored trades, but they’re based on other reasons.
I agree Lee was gone after this year. He wanted to much money and probably too many years. Regardless, if we trade for Oswalt or Haren, RAJ’s going to take a “perception beat-down.” There is going to be a groundswell of basic knee-jerk reactions questioning why we had to deal more prospects (assuming we do) for another starting pitcher when we already had an ace in the bag for this year. And it’s unfair when placed in proper context, but the backlash will be real. A Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt (or Haren)-Happ rotation for the next few years would be super. But at what cost?
by Boundforbeach on Jul 21, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
So you feel a drastic move is a poor way of managing a team.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 21, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess. The way I would put it is: This team needs to get younger. They are blessed with strong talent in the low minors. They should keep it in intact. They don’t have to blow up the current big league team or rebuild or anything. But they shouldn’t look to double down on the present either. Be patient, try to re-tool in mid-flight and hit the ground running in 2012 and 2013.
This seems like sound logic. Thank you.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 21, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That sounds like a personal problem
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I work out of the house these days but I don’t use a computer or sit at a desk so it’s getting annoying checkin in every x minutes esp. as I’m not gonna turn the radio today – don’t want to hear any wacky sports radio speculations.
If you have a cell phone, set up text alerts from the phillies/espn.com – problem solved
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
New twitter from Stark
Astros had a scout in Indianapolis to watch Happ’s last start.
I’m not opposed to dealing Happ on principle, but he’s a real sell-low guy right now.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Do we take into account that Houstons GM is Ed Wade and maybe RAJ can take advantage of him?
Problem with dealing with houston is meddlesome owner
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 21, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Happ (for reasons that are partially illogical and irrational- my first ball game at CBP was his complete game shutout of Colorado last year, and there is just something special about seeing that), but the issue you brought up is the bigger part of my reason right now— if he is going to be traded, I want to get his true value for him. Right now they won’t.
clearly this is because he is Arb eligible
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 21, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Ridiculous argument on 700 Level
Going on, whereupon one poster claims Roy Halladay isn’t considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, in part because he only has 1 CY award. Link.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Everybody knows that the world is full of stupid people
So meet me at the mission at midnight, we’ll divvy up there
Everybody knows that the world is full of stupid people
But I got the pistol so I keep the pesos, yeah that seems fair
Worst part is that I’ve already had an argument with this same guy on BSH regarding the exact same subject. He has said he is abandoning the Phillies until RAJ is fired because of the Lee trade. Of course, he loves Paul Holmgren. All his moves are “win now”. That’s the Flyers motto.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Heard from Buster Olney that Tampa is apparently interested in Corey Hart as well. Could this be falling through?
I always thought of Hart as the poor man’s Jayson Werth. Of course Hart’s actually having the better year this year.
It’s true, he is having a better year and is probably more affordable. Though just a few months ago Werth seemed unstoppable, hitting well into the .300’s. Hart is obviously no slouch either. Tampa’s interest in him could mean they’re looking for someone they can expect to be able to sign long term, as Werth would probably demand more than they could offer. If they’re seriously looking into Hart, hopes of a three team trade for Oswalt or anything for Garza are looking less likely.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 21, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

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