Some Phillies Links for You: July 22, 2010: Welcoming Silly Season
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 22, 2010 7:59 AM EDT
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PrintManuel's decision to let Blanton hit backfires in Phillies' loss to Cardinals
Chollie joins the post-break slump.
Manuel downplays struggles by Rollins
Sorry, guys, the S.S. Juan Castro has sailed. But look at this guy!
Latest from Oswalt, including a vote of approval from Lidge
Votes of approval from Lidge are sooo April of last year. Oh and btw, the talking heads on MLB.TV last night were saying that the Cardinals were late entrants in the Oswalt talks.
Cardinals frontrunners for Oswalt
See? So I wasn't just dreaming that Mitch Williams has an actual TV job. Remember the days when top-shelf free agents longing for a WS ring spurned Philadelphia? Hello again, friend.
Red Sox need deadline spark
Phillies ponder move to acquire Oswalt
Rich Hofman: It's time for Phillies to see what Brown can do
He's ready! He's not ready! Welcome your new .764 OPS rightfielder. God forbid we do any, you know, research (h/t Crashburn Alley)
Baseball Prospectus: Fixing the Astros, Part 1: The Need to Trade Veterans for Prospects
Sub req'd. Perspective on Ed Wade's Empire of S**t.
It's...it's...all so confusing!
Lee trade wasn't necessary
Oh, Bob Brookover... is there no stone you leave un-turned over in the pursuit of truth?
Bill Conlin: Myers might be best option for Phillies
The Fightins: CBP Survival Guide
Heavily rec'd for the hilarity in the comments section, especially if you need a laff today after the Cards sign Oswalt.
Talking Chop: Billy Wagner Blows Save, Padres Beat Braves in 12
Save slips $10 in Wagner's left palm afterwards, says hopefully, "same time tomorrow night?"
AZ Snakepit: Diamondbacks 4, Mets 3 (14) Extras! Extras! Read All About It!
See, it's not all bad.
Federal Baseball: Washington Nationals Support Stephen Strasburg, Defeat Cincinnati Reds, 8-5
And because the Democrats are in the majority on the Nationals, Strasburg's nomination should speed him to the Supreme Court in no time.
Clearwater 6, St. Lucie 1
Jesus saves a split, again and again.
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Buried in the commentary about Chollie’s dumb move was that Figgy got claimed by Houston. That could potentially be bad.
Save slips $10 in Wagner’s left palm afterwards, says hopefully, “same time tomorrow night?”
You’re a saint for bringing the laughs this morning, WL. Particularly good links today.
you take a concept like fellatio, add in street prostitution, and Billy Wagner, and
THAT’S COMEDY
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 22, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
BP on the Blanton decision
Interesting points, mostly re: the utter futility of our bench.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11548
The Cardinals are going to have one damn expensive rotation next year if they get Oswalt. They would have almost 50 million committed to just four starters: (Carpenter 15mil; Oswalt 16mil; Lohse 12mil; Wainwright 7mil). With Matt Holliday on board at 17mil, just wondering if this affects their ability to sign Pujols long term.
Then again, we’ve got a whopping $40 million committed to just three starters in 2011 (Halladay 20mil; Cole 9.5mil; Blanton 10.5mil). And we have another $55mil committed to Utley, Raul, Rollins and Howard.
"I know he wants to pitch on a team that has a chance to win a championship, and we’re obviously one of those teams," said Brad Lidge
And I guess Houston OBVIOUSLY isn’t huh?
Houston has a terrible GM and an overly meddlesome owner…
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 22, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone know why Domonic Brown has started in left the past 2 games (7/20 and 7/21)? Before that, he’s only played 2 games in left since 2008.
I think the Phillies front office has a bar bet to see if he can throw somebody out on the bases from left before anyone on the major league club. If Ibanez or Francisco win, Proefrock has to lick the salt off Dallas Green before doing a flaming shot.
Of course, this is all speculation, but I’ll bet you don’t need a salt shaker to do it.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 22, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Who’s Dallas Green?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 22, 2010 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know how the rest of you interpreted Charlie’s decision to send Blanton back in for the 8th (the 8th!!), but I interpreted it as Charlie looking me directly in the eye and giving me the finger.
Ruben’s smug is apparently contagious…
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Guy’s a fucking dumbass. So a guy like Rollins can be benched for failing to run out an infield pop-up, but who’s gonna hold Cholly accountable when he actively hurts our chances to win ballgames?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 22, 2010 10:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wonder if the Dodgers would be willing to trade Joe Torre for Manuel, Milt Thompson, and manager prospects? If they demand too much, offer up Perlozzo as well as a counter, and see what the Cardinals want for La Russa.
by Baseball Nerd on Jul 22, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Fact of the matter is, it really makes no difference who is in the dugout so long as they are able to make sound decisions based on logic, probability, and (the right) statistics. Charlie, unfortunately, has a long enough track record to show that he is incapable of doing any one of these things.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 22, 2010 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Charlie has his good points and his bad points. I make no statement as to his overall comparative quality as a manager, but we need to highlight his bad points when the occasions arise.
does anyone really think that if Ibanez was brought in, he would’ve gotten a hit?
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 22, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a legitimate point. Charlie’s decision was probably the wrong one, but it’s not like a right-handed Matt Stairs was sitting unused on the bench. Everyone should read that brief BP blurb I posted above.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 11:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Which is fine so long as we also give him credit when he gets it right.
by dannijd on Jul 22, 2010 11:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, because there is no reason for him NOT to get in-game tactical decisions right. It is the expectation that any major league manager be able to make those decisions.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 22, 2010 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Unfortunately, this does not appear to be the case. There are just so many bad decisions made every day by so many different managers. Either the entire industry sucks (possible) or making these decisions in real time is harder than it looks. Either way, the problem is likely structural, and the way to evaluate any particular manager is in comparison to his peers.
I don’t think Charlie is a great tactician even compared to his peers, but everybody’s pretty bad.
Just give me a chance, boss. I’d blow em all out of the water. ; )
Honestly, I’d prefer to be a GM, but being a manager wouldn’t be too bad.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 22, 2010 12:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sure. He isn’t a very good strategic manager though. His main good quality is that he runs a clubhouse in which people aren’t constantly on edge, under stress, and pissed off. The effect of this isn’t quantifiable, of course. But once you actually work in a workplace and interact with many different supervisors, you realize that if you were actually supervised by some a-hole drill sergeant like Larry Bowa, your work would almost certainly suck.
Of course, this year the Phillies are sucking under Manuel too. But I’ll take my chances with him over a Bowa type. Of course, even better would be a person who is not an a-hole and makes reasonable in-game decisions.
I mean, look, I can understand that this “seventh inning curse” thing has got to be partly coincidental. There’s no magic to the seventh inning. What really ought to matter are batters faced and pitch counts. If Charlie doesn’t want to place too much stock in the “inning” trend on the ground that it’s arbitrary, I’m not going to criticize him for that.
But EVEN SO, even if you ignore the seventh-inning curse, they STILL should have known to pull Blanton earlier in several of his games. For instance, in his first start of the year, just back from injury rehab, there’s NO WAY he should have been sent back out for the 7th inning. That was Mackanin’s fault since Charlie had been ejected, but whatever.
Here are all the bad decisions in Blanton starts that I can find, and I’m being conservative:
May 3, 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 score in 7th, first game back from rehab
Will give him a pass on May 8 (6.0 IP, 3 ER, all 3 score in sixth)
May 15, 7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 score in 7th
Will give him a pass on May 20 (7.0 IP, 3 ER, all 3 score in seventh)
Will give him a pass on May 26 (5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 score in sixth)
Will give him a pass on June 18 (6.0 IP, 3 ER, all 3 score in sixth, we won big)
July 4, 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 score in 7th
Will give him a pass on July 16
July 21, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 ER score in 7th and 8th
Even if you just count the four games where the stupidity was obvious, Charlie and Mackanin have cost Blanton 11 ER in 3.0 IP with their obviously dumb managerial decisions. Blanton hasn’t had a great year this year, but part of his 6-point ERA is bad luck and an even bigger part of it is that his manager has totally screwed him over all year long.
All these runs are almost all HR’s. I knew he was giving one up after he batted. He wanted to see what it looked like.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 22, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The weird thing is the level of psychic I have become with this team— Sunday night, I was riding in the car with my mom and brother when Marlon Byrd came up to bat for the third time— just before Halladay hit him, I had the worst feeling that he was going to hit him, and that it was going to lead to a two run homer. Last night, the minute that I saw Blanton was going to hit, I knew both that the result would be a struck out swinging AND that he would allow a home run to Holliday. I am really tired of this team making my worst psychic predictions right. That being said, it is not like there is any bit of certainty that the bullpen would not have done just as badly.
OT but
took the night off as a free ticket from the sky fell into my lap for Union v. Manchester United. Observations:
-44,000+ showed up to see exhibition soccer
-ManU fans are everywhere. WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE?
-Listening to the 7th/8th from my car in Lot T while looking at a dark CBP was deeply profound.
As I understand it, Man U fans are like Yankee fans. They’re people from all kinds of random places who just want to root for the famous team and feel cool.
Bingo. I was flabbergasted at the sheer amount of Ted in the stands last night — twas a truly sickening display of bandwagon jumping.
Hope you had a good time though, WL. Union acquitted themselves very well in the first half (albeit against only a handful of ManUre regulars), controlling possession and crafting several good opportunities. Just lost all organization with the 7 substitutions at halftime.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
“Ted,” of course, being “red.” Damn phone.
On a related note, Glasgow Celtic took on Sporting Lisbon at Fenway last night (I’d certainly have gone were it not crunch time), and the whole scene looked completely surreal. First soccer match in Fenway since the ’60s apparently.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 11:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
people from all kinds of random places who just want to root for the famous team and feel cool.
just the shorthand I was looking for. Thank you. I felt cooler in my Union garb.
Just a feeling, but even thought they are muchsmaller than the Big Four Teams, the Union seem to me to have tremendous upside as an organization. And MLS seems to have a grip on how to incubate new clubs.
The ManU striker they showcased last night is something special. Welburn I think.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 22, 2010 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Welbeck, actually WL. It was a great game but damn there were way too many American United fans. Some English fans were trying to get chants going and you could just tell 80% of the people there had no clue how to join in.
Formerly RyanGiggs11, currently a Contributor to SBN Philly.
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
by Scott Kessler on Jul 22, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Just as I can’t stand foreigners who root for the Yankees, Lakers, or Cowboys, I would imagine that most serious English soccer fans despise those folks.
Isn’t it rather accepted that most English despise Americans – we are crass and crude and all (I KEED)
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 22, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m a United fan and I’ve talked to foreigners (Englishmen and such) about my support for United although I’m American. They seem to like the fact that (1) I actually follow and am knowledgeable on soccer (2) have a reason for following United (I started really getting into international/club soccer because of Ryan Giggs back in’07) and (3) because I’m not some idiot that just watches for wins. The fans that showed up to the game seemed to be front runners without any knowledge of United’s history. I did meet some fans that were either English or were die hard United fans and that was great. But when the stadium is filled with something like 30,000 United fans, don’t you think that the chants would have been heard? There wasn’t a single “Glory, glory Man United” going on. It was pitiful.
Formerly RyanGiggs11, currently a Contributor to SBN Philly.
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
by Scott Kessler on Jul 22, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
havent been for a while, they were starting to pick it up before Utley went down but it just looks bad all around right now for the remainder of the season. They need to do a lot of things from now and the start of next season.
First no bullpen scraps, fix this pen, it can’t be this hard, and dont overpay Ruben.
Outfield needs a new bat not named Brown, Raul has to go, which means you just need to eat the contact, we did it with Eaton and Jenkins so we can do it for one year.
Figure out if you really want Jimmy back, personally to me hes done. Yes he can catch the ball but ever since that MVP joke he got his mental thinking at the plate is nuts.
Those are just a start.
Raul has to go, which means you just need to eat the contact, we did it with Eaton and Jenkins so we can do it for one year.
No, this is stupid. I don’t know how many times I have to keep repeating myself on this, but Raul has a higher walk rate, a higher line drive rate, and a lower strikeout rate than he did last year. I don’t doubt that he’s slipping a bit, as his GB% is at a career high, but a substantial portion of his struggles are also explainable by bad batted-ball luck.
Also, even this year, with those luck stats factored in, Raul is hitting OK against righties. There’s simply no justification for eating his salary under these conditions.
As poor as Ibanez has been, I don’t think buying him out and booting him out the door is the answer. You have to pay him either way, and it’s not like we’ve got a ready made replacementon hand (Francisco and Mayberry clearly aren’t the answer).
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 11:08 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sad but funny off of Todd Zolecki's Twitter
“Asked if they know who’s starting Saturday, Amaro said, ‘Nope’.Betting it’s not Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee.”
Oswalt
I’m obviously not the biggest proponent of the idea of dealing for him, so whatever winds up derailing a potential trade is alright by me… but I’ll admit that the latest bit of news rankles me.
Apparently Oswalt wouldn’t require his 2012 option be picked up to approve a trade to St. Louis (recall, yesterday, that that was said to be a sticking point with a potential Phillies deal). To each his own, but seriously… F him. If Philly is good enough for Roy Halladay, it should damn sure be good enough for Roy Oswalt.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 1:26 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Dude, how dare you compare Philadelphia to heaven.
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 22, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
And Roy Cohn.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 22, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you ever read that book Citizen Cohn? Downright frightening…
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear you, but can you really blame him? He wants his shot at a World Series ring. He said so. St. Louis is in first place. We’re seven games behind and playing like complete shit. When Halladay came here, he no doubt took less because we were coming off of back to back WS appearances and looked liked we were poised for another return.
I’d like to say F-him also, but as Taco likes to say, the conditions on the ground have changed considerably since last winter. For all you know, Halladay may be regretting his decision about right now. The ugly fact remains that in just a few short months, we no longer have the aura of a “destination team” that top flight free agents want to get in on. Between the chaos, injuries, GM smug, poor play, record, and bloated payroll, you can’t blame the guy for preferring St. Louis…
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure we can. Just ask Scott Rolen.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
I assume you’re joking. If memory serves correct (which is far from certain) that pig wanted a contract that allowed him the option to become a free agent if the Phillies payroll was less than top 5 in the league at any point during his stay. That’s hardly equatable to to Oswalt indicating he wants us to guarantee a one year team option in 2012.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a joke. We still boo Scott Rolen for choosing StL over the Phils, do we not? And if you think it’s OK for Roy Oswalt to choose StL because they are committed to winning, but it’s not OK that Scott did same, why?
Rolen wanted the Phils to be committed to winning and and at the time, they were not.
It’s not really all that different in the end, if you ask me.
If you are mad at Scott, which I don’t agree with but can understand, then you should also be angry with Roy for his demands. He’s still holding one team over a financial barrel to be willing to either come (or in Rolen’s case, stay) there.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Rolen was homegrown. We offered him something like $164 million bucks which was unprecedented at the time. He spat in our face and tried to demand a contract that make him a de facto GM. So, yes, I don’t care for him one bit. I just don’t see how this is analagous to the Oswalt situation. He’s not suggesting that we’re not committed to winning. But the point is… we’re not winning of late. St. Louis is. How can you honestly be offended by him preferring someone else?
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not. But I wasn’t offended by Rolen, either—that’s my point. I believe it was Rolen’s departure that caused the Phils, in part, to rethink the way they do things and create more of a winning culture.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
I agree, but I think it played a small part in it—between Rolen and Schilling saying how cheap the franchise was and how they didn’t try to put a winner on the field. We know how much the org likes to be called out and how personally they take things.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
Anyone thinking about adding someone like Oswalt must consider this.
The Phillies, after shedding:
Moyer (8 M)
Werth (7.5 M)
Contreras (1.5 M)
Durbin (2.125 M)
Jenkins (1.25 M)
Eaton (.5 M)
Feliz (.5 M)
Are still committed to 134 M next year before any holes are filled. Adding something new, shiny, and expensive is going to be very, very hard absent a budget increase exceeding that of inflation +/- a couple of percent, which, IMO, is very unlikely.
In all likelihood, Ibanez stays and plays/platoons, and Brown goes to RF. Happ gets plugged into Moyer’s spot (Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Happ/?). Bullpen is the crap the team has, plus Bastardo/Matheison/something else.
I don’t see much changing, unless part of the Houston deal is that they eat some Oswalt contract at least for 2011, a la Toronto eating 6,000,000 of Halladay this year.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 22, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That all makes perfect sense, but there’s one flaw in the argument: if his primary concern is winning a World Series, and he doesn’t think the Phillies are capable of that, then he simply shouldn’t waive hit NTC to come here. His goal here is extraction, plain and simple.
Look, I’m not broken up about it. As RTP points out, unless something crazy happens with the budget, the Phils are already tight on payroll as it is. But Oswalt’s manipulation here is still off-putting.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 3:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Good points. I think he would be fine with a trade to either team. But he clearly prefers St. Louis (probably because they are in 1st) so he’s trying to incentivize and facilitate a deal with them.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 22, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm. Rumor mill said Red Sox where inquiring about DeJesus who might have just landed on the DL with a sprained thumb. Wonder if they will take a harder look at Werth with this news. Don’t know much about their farm but might be able to get something better than feed corn if Werth is to go.
The Sox have a very nice farm. Lots of Pitchers and Outfielders (sound familiar?). There’s some meat on the bone if RAJ trades Werth there. Plus he fills the goofy Jesus look-a-like in the outfield hole they’ve had since Damon left for the Yankees.
pitcher and outfielders. I am beginning to think that the large athletic non baseball toolsy guys that teams are falling in love with is partially to blame for the shortage of quality mid-infielders and 3rd basemen at the minor league level. Hard to field those position if your too big or haven’t been doing since you were a kid. That’s why I was shocked the braves got rid escobar.
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