Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren: A Phillies Fan's Primer
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 9:14 AM EDT
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With heavy trade deadline buzz concluding that the Phillies are "determined" to acquire either Houston Astros righty Roy Oswalt, or Arizona Diamondbacks starter Dan Haren, now would be a good time to break these two down.
Preliminary Matters: In either an Oswalt or Haren deal, it's likely that right fielder Jayson Werth would need to be dealt, probably to a third team, to acquire prospects who could be lumped together with a Phillies farmhand or two to form the haul required to land the pitcher.
ROY OSWALT:
AGE: 32
2010: $15MM; 2011: $16MM; 2012: $16MM club option ($2MM buyout)
Oswalt may opt-out of club option and receive buyout
Full no-trade clause
ASTROS DEMANDS:
The Astros farm system is almost as bad as the big league club, ranking at or near the bottom of most rankings, and that's saying something. GM Ed Wade is surely going to want to restock the farm system with some high-upside prospects and probably a major league ready pitcher to take Oswalt's spot in the rotation. The talent required to acquire Oswalt will likely not be as high as for Haren, as Oswalt is only signed through 2011. Oswalt has heavily intimated that he wants his 2012 option picked up, which frankly is reasonable of him -- would you turn down an opportunity to guarantee yourself another $16 million?
PERFORMANCE:
Oswalt has been one of baseball's most durable pitchers, starting at least 30 games a season since 2004. Despite leading the league with 12 losses, Oswalt is in the middle of one of his best seasons in 2010, posting a 3.42 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 129 innings pitched, even after his dreadful start yesterday. His BABIP allowed is a sort of low .276, which will likely regress a bit, but his HR/FB ratio is within normal limits, so as long as he keeps the strikeout rate high, he should stave off a collapse.
CONCLUSION:
In Roy Oswalt, the Phillies would be getting an elite starting pitcher, but one who is only controlled for one full season after 2010, and one for whom there are and remain concerns about injury, particularly back problems. Oswalt is a smallish right-hander (6'0") so there are questions about longterm durability. And, well, this is Ed Wade we're talking about, negotiating when backed into a corner was never one of his strong suits. Oh, Travis Lee...
More (Dan Haren!) after the jump...
DAN HAREN:
AGE: 29
2010: $8.25MM; 2011: $12.75MM; 2012: $12.75MM; 2013: $15.5MM club option ($3.5MM buyout)
DIAMONDBACKS DEMANDS:
Unlike the Astros, the Diamondbacks have a decent young core in place (Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds), but not much else left in the minors, aside from prospect Jarrod Parker who is missing 2010 after recovery from Tommy John surgery. Like the Astros, the Snakes will want prospects back, and a Major League ready player also. Due to the length and favorability of Haren's contract, the Diamondbacks will ask for (and get) more and/or better prospects in any trade. With General Manager Josh Byrnes booted from his job earlier this summer, interim GM Jerry Dipoto might have orders from on high to make the deal, so there might be some pressure to get this done on their end.
PERFORMANCE:
Dan Haren has been nothing short of one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past few seasons. His ERA+ numbers in 2007-2009 (138, 139, 146) are outstanding. He is currently leading the National League in strikeouts, with 141.
His 2010 numbers, on their face, don't look very pretty. His 4.60 ERA is mediocre, and he's allowed a league leading 161 hits in 141 innings pitched. But a closer look at his other numbers reveals how fluky bad this very well could be:
Haren's BABIP against is an astronomically high .341 (average is approximately .300). His Home Run/Flyball ratio, at 10.2%, is a career high (pitchers generally have little control over how many flyballs leave the yard). His career average is 8.0%. Despite this, his K/9 and K/BB rates are right in line with career norms, showing that Haren is controlling everything that he can control, and that he's been bamboozled by a lot of bad luck.
One concern that's hard to explain are his 1st half/2nd half splits (h/t to azrider at BackSheGoes.com for compiling these):
2007 1st half 2.30 ERA .999 WHIP .583 OPS
2007 2nd half 4.15 ERA 1.50 WHIP .813 OPS
2008 1st half 2.72 ERA .955 WHIP .582 OPS
2008 2nd half 4.18 ERA 1.37 WHIP .775 OPS
2009 1st half 2.01 ERA .808 WHIP .529 OPS
2009 2nd half 4.62 ERA 1.26 WHIP .762 OPS
While useful and troubling, another closer look shows the same BABIP bad luck that seems to have stymied Haren in the first half this season.
2007: 1st half .234 BABIP, 3.16 SO/BB
2007: 2nd half .357 BABIP, 3.96 SO/BB
2008: 1st half .256 BABIP, 5.09 SO/BB
2008: 2nd half .375 BABIP, 5.22 SO/BB
2009: 1st half .233 BABIP, 8.06 SO/BB
2009: 2nd half .315 BABIP, 4.27 SO/BB
Haren is showing a trend of pitching in tremendously good luck in the first half, and worse luck in the second. In 2007 and 2008, he actually improved on his SO/BB ratios, while in 2009, his SO/BB went from ridiculously awesome to merely very good in the second half.
It's hard to tell what this first half/second half split really means. What's extremely hard to prove is that Haren totally collapses in the second half due to anything within his control.
CONCLUSION:
Despite their current three game winning streak, the Phillies are still decided longshots to make it to the 2010 postseason, sitting six games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and three games back in the loss column in a crowded NL Wild Card field. Any trades that the Phillies make at the deadline need to be made with 2011-2013 in mind, with the prospects of a postseason run in 2010 as an afterthought.
Dan Haren carries more upside, but also more risk, as the Phillies would be committed to him through at least 2012, and injury or ineffectiveness could make that contract a heavy burden on an already taxed payroll. Roy Oswalt, on the other hand, could skate after 2011 or 2012 if the option is picked up, but is signed at a higher annual value.
The Phillies' braintrust also needs to consider how, if at all, these contracts would affect their ability to sign Jimmy Rollins, whose contract is up after 2011, and Cole Hamels, signed through 2011 but still arbitration eligible in 2012.
The worst thing the Phillies could do is go all-in, win-now, and decimate the talent-rich Single-A farm teams in an attempt to reach the postseason this year. Ideally the Phillies wouldn't have to part with more than one or two of top prospects Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, and Jonathan Singleton. There is still significant depth at the lower levels, however, and an attractive package could probably be assembled with big league starter J.A. Happ, one of Singleton/Cosart/Colvin, and two B or C level prospects (i.e., Jiwan James, J.C. Ramirez, Austin Hyatt, Justin DeFratus, Scott Mathieson).
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nice read.
one thing that jumps at me are Haren’s splits between 1st half/2nd half. That’s a big difference, which has occurred consistently for 3 years (not sure how 2010 is treating him). If that’s the case, might there be some other factor at work besides ‘luck’?
I wonder if his velocity drops or 2nd half games tend to be more division so his opponents are more comfortable against him.
A quick look over his game logs at B-R shows that the vast majority of his 2nd half starts are division opponents, especially the last two seasons.
I also noticed his pitch counts got higher as the season went on, with only a few exceptions. He has averaged around 220 innings per season for the last 3, and maybe he just needs better conditioning or work on his sequencing a little better to confuse the familiar opponents of the division.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 25, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
not really an excuse
i mean, we all pride the phillies in the fact that they’re a second half team right? why pick up haren if he’s consistently worse in the second half? if the thinking here is postseason pitching then get oswalt. he is far more polished in the later months than the trade option counterpart…
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Jul 25, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
If his number overall are as good as they are, I don’t care how he gets them. If he’s essentially ridiculous over the first half and then average over the second half, then he’s a plus to a team that always struggles out of the gate.
by philsandthrills on Jul 25, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
The point he was making is that he’s consistently worse because in those years the DBacks were loaded up with Division teams at the end of their seasons and as batters typically hit pitchers they see more often better than those they don’t it stands to reason his numbers will get worse. Plus it ‘s Arizona what does he have to play for at those points of the season when there’s no hope of the post season.
You forgot one thing
In 55AB, Haren has 20 hits, 6 doubles, 1 HR, 7 RBI and is batting .364.
He’s a pitcher, but considering our bench and that Cliff Lee pinch hit for us once or twice last year…
I was also thinking that since Haren and Cookies were teammates in Oakland, maybe his presence will raise Blanton’s performance also….but obviously we cannot quantify intangibles, although we can certainly try.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 25, 2010 10:26 AM EDT reply actions
Where's the common sense?
With 65 games left, 3 1/2 behind in the WC and 6 games behind in the division, how absurd it is to throw in the towel on 2010.
Should all the other teams in the NL also quit, other than the division leaders, San Francisco and St. Louis? Are you serious?
There’s plenty of baseball left. I’m not suggesting the Phillies go all in, but there is a middle ground that is appropriate. The team has already made a mistake by not picking up an infield bat as soon as Utley went down almost four weeks ago. The great Pat Gillick would have acted more decisively. The last time Utley had a lengthy stay on the DL, Gillick picked up Iguchi the next day. Since offense is a big problem, the last thing the team should do is trade Werth.
Regarding pitchers, we could improve our starting staff with pick-ups like Myers or Sheets. They should not cost much in prospects.
I would be willing to trade for Haren if we can get him cheaply, but I’m afraid that we would have to give up either multiple top prospects or Werth and at least one top prospects.
Giving up multiple top prospects for Haren would be an abandonment of the team’s plan to re-build the farm less than a year after Amaro announced the plan in the Lee trade. There are very good reasons that teams (and businesses in general) give a lot of thought to the future and try to stick to their future plans. Seat-of-the-pants management does not work very well.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 25, 2010 10:48 AM EDT reply actions
Where in the hell did anyone say to throw in the towel on 2010?
I said the Phillies should not PLAN on making the postseason in 2010, and that adding Haren/Oswalt would HELP in 2010.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
“Any trades that the Phillies make at the deadline need to be made with 2011-2013 in mind, with the prospects of a postseason run in 2010 as an afterthought.”
That sounds like giving up to me.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 25, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
“Afterthought” doesn’t mean giving up, it just means focusing on the next few seasons when they’re not six games behind in July. They’ve very far behind right now. You can’t rely on 2007-8 miracles every September.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now, I want to get to the top of the WC standings. Once we do that, then I’ll re-focus on the Braves.
I don’t consider getting into the playoffs as a WC a major disadvantage.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 25, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
To add to that, I’m sure alot of us have thought to ourselves that the June swoon would bite us in the ass and this year with injuries and the worst bench ever it just might. Well actually it has. I think we’d be maybe 3 or 4 out had the bench been better. The team just runs so hot and cold. It can be hard to predict anything at times.
You also mentioned the likelihood of having to give up Werth in a deal for Haren/Oswalt.
With offense being the Phils’ big problem, why do you think such a deal adds up to a net improvement for 2010?
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 25, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t, necessarily, but it’d be an upgrade for 2011-12/13.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Weakening the team in 2010 through a deal is tantamount to giving up. To win in 2010, more is needed than keeping the chin up, stiff upper lip, etc.
by Derekcarstairs on Jul 25, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
We might just have a philosophical disagreement, but I’d rather strengthen the team in 2011-13 at the possible expense of 2010, than pursue a longshot postseason berth now.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus gives the Phillies just over a 21% chance of making the postseason.
Or as our own Matt Swartz says:
Now, the Phillies are far enough behind that even adding a 4 1/2-win player would add only about 2 percent to their championship odds, while many other teams in the league could increase their championship odds by 6 or 7 percent. The best decision would be to hold, and to trade Werth for young talent if they continue to skid before the deadline, and not trade for Oswalt.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
For me the unkowns are will Jones stay healthy and how will Heyward fare thru the dog days in his first full season.
Valid points, but that pitching staff they have in Atlanta is just sooooo ridiculously good, that even if Tim Hudson regresses to the mean like he ought to they’re still in great shape.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 25, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Another thing I was thinking about is Gonzalez. If he plays like the out making machine that his stats say he is, that could, now that he’s in the NL and without a DH to make up for slack the line-up it could create more inconsistencies in the line-up. Eh. prolly nuttin’ there – just looking for a cut above the eyebrow to wail on and try to get a TKO. I still am amazed they gave up Escobar.
Exactly. Though the Phillies last 3 games since I wrote that have certainly helped their odds, they still can’t help their playoff odds much this year by making a big addition. If they added somebody for 2011, that would have far more impact on their chances than somebody for 2010. Now, if they go on a winning streak and get back within a game or so of the Wild Card or the division, then that would change, but the reality is that any prospects that they trade are guys that could potentially add wins in future years when it can make a difference.
You run the risk of coming up short this year anyway, and causing yourself to come up short in the future by getting rid of prospects chasing a long shot in 2010.
i agree derek, don’t trade werth. i think this team needs him way too much. we all jump ship the minute a guy goes into a slump… look at the back of the baseball card – he’ll average close to what we all expect – i mean, he leads the league in doubles! even AFTER that horrible month long slump… what were we all saying the first month and a half when he was tearing the cover off the ball? ‘we gotta sign this guy now! lock him up! long term!’ … the guys average drops to a below sea level .285 and it’s time to kick his ass off the team?! i don’t like getting involved in bidding wars at the deadline… heat of the moment decision making by ruby jr cannot bode well for us guys – the fans.
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Jul 25, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
No trade should happen. If they are planning on the next few seasons they should wait and see who comes available at the season end. Besides with the offence seeming like they might get confidence back trading werth, for what francisco to take his place is that who, is going to really collaspe this team. We still have a shot this year. I think we need to think bull pen not starter.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
But they really aren’t any good relief guys out there are threre?
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 25, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
We consider Hyatt a class C prospect? I know hes dominating, but hes way too old for that level.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 25, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions
Serious question: If Amaro had kept Lee would Hamels be having the year he is now?
It’s something I’ve been thinking of for some time and would like to get some opinions on it.
Well, I was certainly beating the drum that it would happen since well before the Lee trade. His performance in 2008 was very lucky and his performance in 2009 was very unlucky. Barely any bloop singles and tons of lineouts in 2008, and tons of bloopers and very few lineouts in 2009. People overreacted substantially to both the 3.09 ERA of 2008 and the 4.32 of 2009. In terms of sustainable skills, his batters faced had 5% walks, 21% strikeouts, and about 41% ground balls per batted ball in both years, and didn’t give up any more home runs, line drives, batted balls to reach the outfield, etc. in one year vs. the other. Even things like foul balls that everyone got on his case about were equally high both years. Everything about his performance both years indicated that when the smoke cleared and the luck evened out, he would be a 3.50-3.60 ERA pitcher, which is exactly where he is this year (though with more BB and more K).
Since when
Is 3 games back with 2+ months to go a long shot? I agree that the NL East crown – in all likelihood – has passed us by, but with the kind of sh*t luck and poor production we’ve had this season – there’s no reason to think that we can’t catch San Fran for the Wild Card. Is that the scenario we had hoped for coming into the season? Obviously not, but the playoffs are the playoffs and come October – the hot team wins.
Great piece. I would quibble, however, with the statement that Oswalt would only be under control for one full season after 2011. Having an option is “control”. If we trade for him and manage to avoid having to pick up his option, that doesn’t mean we’re committing to not pick up his option. We’ll still pick it up if we want to. We would relinquish control over Oswalt in 2012 only if we want to relinquish control over him, which would be a good thing.
One thing about Dan Haren is that he's a damn good hitter
His career wOBA is just 5 points lower than Valdez (over about 300 PA, so not just SSS). That is a huge thing. This year he’s added half a win with the bat and his 393 wOBA (not going to stay that high, but still)
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 25, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions
Also, since moving to the NL, he's put up a wOBA of 291
Making him a better PH candidate than Valdez
by benderbrodriguez on Jul 25, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
haren to anaheim
I’m shocked there wasn’t one rumor about the angels being involved.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
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