SWEEP! Phillies 5, Rockies 4
by David S. Cohen on Jul 26, 2010 4:52 PM EDT
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PrintThe Phillies swept the Rockies today in another ho-hum mid-day game.
Wait? That's not the game you watched today? Did you see another ninth inning in which our closer came so close to blowing the game? Another game in which Brad Lidge loaded the bases and looked like he was going to implode . . . again? But somehow pulled it out by inducing a groundout back to the pitcher, just like yesterday's game-ending strike out?
Well, if you've been watching the ninth inning of Phillies' games for the past year, then this really should be considered ho-hum, shouldn't it? Another win, that's what matters, right?
Three things to note, as the Phillies gain half a game on the idle Braves:
- This is the Phillies first five-game win streak since April 14th, the 8th game of the season. They haven't won six in a row since September 18 of last year.
- This is the second four-game sweep by the Phillies in the last two weeks (the Reds right before the All-Star break). Before that, you have to go to mid-May of last year when they swept the Nationals in four games.
- Not counting the post-season, today and yesterday are the first back-to-back saves for Lidge since August 22 and August 23 last year. In the two games last year, Lidge gave up 1 hit and no walks in 2 innings, while striking out 2. In these two games, Lidge gave up 4 hits and 4 walks in 2 innings, striking out 3. For all the sky-is-falling types out there, the Phillies record in both "streaks" was . . . 2-0.
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Baseball is a roller coaster, dudes. Only 4.5 back, with the D-Backs and Nationals up next? Not too shabby just one week after we looked dead in the water.
A week from now we could be right in the thick of it… or we could be out of it funny game baseball is.
by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 26, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing to note is this series looked like a AA team facing an ML team and asside from Lidge it was a series that the phillz just dominated all parts of the game.
by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 26, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
matchups are set for the d-backs series
Tue: Hamels (3.40/4.22/3.74/3.54) vs. Rodrigo Lopez (4.58/5.26/4.76/4.84)
Wed: Halladay (2.28/2.87/2.97/2.97) vs. Edwin Jackson (5.01/4.31/4.27/4.26)
Thu: TBA (?) (4.60/5.14/4.79/4.91)* vs. Joe Saunders (4.62/4.70/4.94/5.08)
* I’m assuming that “TBA” is Kendrick. All those stats are ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA. Finally figured out how to get SIERA from the BP website. I think the layout could be better.
What does that imply if his xFIP and SIERA are the same
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Jul 26, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I enjoy thinking you just guessed what the statistics would be for TBA. You are some kind of sorcerer.
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The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 26, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
matchups for the braves series
Tue: Tommy Hanson (4.12/3.34/4.05/3.49) vs. Stephen Strasburg (2.32/1.89/2.15/2.04)
Wed: Tim Hudson (2.47/4.25/4.22/3.99) vs. Livan Hernandez (3.12/3.79/4.59/4.80)
Thu: Derek Lowe (4.48/4.43/4.08/4.18)* vs. Craig Stammen(5.50/4.21/4.24/4.47)
As WholeCamels would say - OMGZ!!!
The Braves got Strasburg, Hernandez, AND Stammen? Wow. We’re doomed.
:)
by David S. Cohen on Jul 26, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
tee hee
perfesser sed OMGZ.
duh, it’s like, zOMG.
hehehe
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 26, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Apologies to TP
My comment here made no sense. I was under the influence of post-Lidge dimentia.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 27, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow, TIm Hudson is remarkably lucky. But if I recall, he generally tends to outperform his xFIP because of his extreme groundball tendencies.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Beats using wins and era.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 26, 2010 5:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well they don’t have to be perfect, they just have to be better than everything else.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Jul 26, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
said the aging stripper to the plastic surgeon
by j reed on Jul 26, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec’d for pragmatic view of economy’s service sector.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 26, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Any sabermetrician who is being intellectually honest (i.e., excluding those who populate, say, Fangraphs comment threads) will tell you that xFIP has flaws. That why stats like SIERA exist – to improve upon those flaws. Sabermetricians recognize that although these stats work, they aren’t perfect, and that there’s always room for improvement.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 26, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure. But even considering Tim Hudson’s tendency to have a lower ERA than xFIP, I am able to tell you that he is getting unsustainably good results. Never has there been this wide of a gap between his ERA and xFIP. For instance, consider that his BABIP this season is a full 55 points lower than his career .286 mark. So I don’t really see how me saying that “Hudson tends to outperform his xFIP” invalidates xFIP as a useful predictor in his case.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 26, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, his LOB% is 83.2%. That’s way above league average and bound to drop at some point.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 26, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. And as far as I know, an unusually high strand rate is directly connected to an unusually low BABIP.
So yeah, 83.2 will have to drop at some point, especially for someone like Hudson who gets so few outs via the K.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 26, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The Braves always suck in DC
I’d be thrilled with 2 out of 3.
Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward.
by Scott Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
mmmbop
It’s Hanson vs. Strasburg so it’s not like some scrub going up against him. Nats as slight favorites in that game I’d say. Braves strong favorites in other two.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah, I’d imagine Hanson does his usual thing tomorrow: Either 8 shutout innings or 3 innings of 8 runs.
We should take game 2 without a problem. And Derek Lowe vs. Craig Stammen is one of those games you’d think would be 10-8 or something, and it turns out to be a 1-0 pitching showdown.
Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward.
by Scott Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
wow, so Kyle Kendrick is the poor man’s Tommy Hanson.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 26, 2010 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Hanson has been frustrating, that’s for sure. There’s talk that he might be tipping off his pitches, but who knows.
Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward.
by Scott Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He reminds me of a right handed Freddy Garica – when his pitching arm is in the L -position he pauses momentarily and looks like he’s showing you the ball. I don’t know if it’s a timing mechanism or a way of cocking his forearm/wrist to create more velocity (cocking motion generates more potenial energy which is translated into kinetic energy when the ball is realease). Perhaps it gives some batters a split second longer to time his release point, or track the pitch . Or it could be unusal enough for batters to take more notice and perhaps are picking up a tell as you suggested.
I gotta imagine teams like the Nats and Pirates view the Braves and Phillies like a playoff series. They won’t make it to October baseball, so why not give everything they have against a possible playoff team?
Sharks have a week dedicated to Jason Heyward.
by Scott Coleman on Jul 26, 2010 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
'08 rewind?
Remember in September 08 when the Phils playoff hopes were fading, and a WC contender in the Brewers were coming to town for a four game series? The phils went on to sweep the four game set and go on a dominant run that led to the World Series win. Did this series remind anyone of that? I was obviously happy to see the sweep again. Hopefully this is the start of an 08-like run.
Why does this seem like deja vu?
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 26, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So…is it bad that I don’t even care when Lidge walks the tightrope anymore? Sure eventually these types of outings will come back to bite him (and the Phillies) in the ass, but as long as he doesn’t outright blow the game I’m becoming strangely okay with it.
Then again, the first “good” Phillies closer I remember watching was Mitch Williams, so maybe between him, Lidge and Mesa I’ve finally just become accustomed to the lack of a shutdown guy at the back.
I don’t know if it’s bad that you don’t care but for us to win a WC birth he can’t blow many saves and he has looked shaky in several of his pass outings. I just hope they don’t run him out there tomorrow if it’s a save stituation after two consecutive outings 30+ pitch outings.
I think we’re all happy when the Phils when no matter how shaky Lidge is. What does bother me is that Charlie seems totally committed to him in the face of overwhelming evidence that he’s just not very good any more. Make no mistake, this WILL bite us in the ass by the end of the year if not much sooner.
The problem is that it's hard to say he's "not very good anymore."
Sure, he’s wildly inconsistent, and at times dreadfully awful, but then sometimes he’ll go out and is just filthy good. Even last night’s near-disaster was closed out with 3 Ks.
He’s a good pitcher, I’m convinced, but something’s very wrong.
Do we need a new stat?
We have the kERA for wild variance in ERA among starting pitchers. (Thanks, Kwality Kyle).
Maybe we need an LSave for a Brad Lidge-style save…(or maybe WTSave for us old-timers, thanks Mitch). Each save has a WHIP of 2.0 or more. If there is higher than a one run lead, the lead shrinks to one (that one might be tricky to track). At least one pitch is wild in the strike zone (i.e., right down the middle with no movement). At least one pitch is in the dirt or over the batter’s head. And, confusingly, at least one pitch is nasty-awesome (like the last pitch of the game Sunday from Lidge, inside, down on the black and unhittable).
Yes I am old. I remember the Phils good old days and their bad old days. Course, the good old days I'm thinking of were in 2009.
Homer's Epics: An Odyssey for the Salary Cap, The Quest For the Goalie Grail
I just proposed a “Bad Save” stat on the backshegoes.com message board today along similar lines. A Bad Save, or a Lidge, if you will, is any save in which at the moment the 3rd out is recorded the win expectancy is less than 50% (assuming the closer came in at the beginning of the 9th in a normal save situation). That means, in general, at least two baserunners on with all but one run of the lead gone. That’s two Lidges in a row for Lidge.
I guess the way to say it is that he kinda sucks right now (albeit not as badly as last year), but it still shows signs of being a correctable problem.
If he sucked consistently on a moderate level, then that would be different. But that isn’t the manner in which he has sucked.
take any pitcher on this roster and “sometimes he’s good”. Even Baez. That’s pretty crummy evidence.
I don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. Most likely, neither do you.
There are two factors in determining how good a pitcher (or any player, really) is or can be. The first is his ceiling. The second is his consistency.
A pitcher with a low ceiling can certainly outperform a pitcher with a higher ceiling by being more consistent. The latter pitcher is capable of improving though, while the former pitcher is not.
If Baez consistently pitched up to his ceiling, as he has in certain years of his career, he would be a serviceable relief pitcher. But his ceiling is not that high. Even on his good nights, he is only OK. This year, he has failed even to pitch up to his modest ceiling on any consistent basis.
In contrast, when Lidge is on, he is unhittable. He may never get to the ceiling that he was able to reach in 2005 and 2008. But it is at least theoretically possible that he will, and if he were to do so, he would again be a very good closer.
Do you really disagree with anything I just said, now that I’ve gone through the trouble of talking more slowly and setting out every point in painstaking detail? Or did you just not understand it the first time?
I thought you were seeing something wrong in his mechanics, or that his slider lost it’s bite or his fastball lacked finish. Like last year you could see excessive leaning towards towards1st base right as he was about to release the ball – your supposed maintain your center of gravity. Could have been him overthrowing the ball to compensate for a loss of velocity or what have you. Of course he’s capable pitching well, he has in the past.
Right, OK, I understand what you’re saying. I didn’t mean to suggest that I knew what Lidge was doing wrong. Just that his problem must be something he’s doing wrong (as opposed to just a lack of ability), since sometimes he still is able to put it all together.
By the way, this is the first time in a while that I’ve looked at Lidge’s career stats – how awesome was he in 2004? 80 G, 94.2 IP, 57 H, 30 BB, 157 K? That’s nuts.
Absolutely awesome
I seem to remember an article by Jayson Stark sometime around 2004 or 2005 where Stark went on at length about how absolutely unhittable Brad Lidge was in those days. And then Albert Pujols hit that homer off him in the LCS in 2005 and the next year he fell apart. (By the way, even back then Lidge had the problem of getting two outs easily and then being unable to get the third out.)
I know it may seem strange to be unconcerned, but as long as Lidge succeeds in getting the save I don’t care if he gives up runs or loads the bases. It does tax the mind and the arm, however, so it’s not a good sign for his availability in the next few days.
by phillyinportland on Jul 27, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
regarding haren
Apparently, the D-Backs GM has gone on record as saying the deal was good for his team because of Joe Saunders’ career W-L%.
Now, you can never take a GM’s public statements at face value so that could be totally meaningless. He obviously isn’t going to say anything critical of a guy he just acquired even if it’s true. But there is at least a possibility here that the Phillies and/or other teams did give the D-Backs a better offer than the Angels did, but that the D-Backs just couldn’t tell which offer was actually the better one.
I’m left wondering how much of the trade hinged on Saunders — and the very weird W-L% statements — and how much was a “one that got away” vibe over Skaggs. Apparently the D-Backs wanted Skaggs, but were two spots too late; seems an Amaro-esque fixation might explain the unexplainable here.
I think the Angels have pictures of the DBacks GM in diapers getting spoon fed by the stilleto heeled rubber maven, Madame Mandi.
You mean they don’t go for that sort of thing in Phoenix?
by phillyinportland on Jul 27, 2010 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Just seeing the good news. So Lidge provided heart failure again? Can’t wait to peruse the game thread. Hope FM was there. :)
I had to leave before the ninth inning and when I came back after the game there were 174 new comments.
partial minor league roundup
Domonic Brown (LV): 0 for 1, 2 BB, 0 K [still in progress]
JC Ramirez (Reading): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR
Matt Rizzotti (Reading): 4 for 4, 2 2B
Brody Colvin (Lakewood): 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
Jiwan James (Lakewood): 2 for 4, 1 3B, 1 SB
Reading game vs. Richmond was suspended because the lights in the RIchmond stadium went out.
Lakewood getting ready to start the second game of a doubleheader.
Holy cow, you weren’t kidding. Colvin for his minor league career: 59 R, 40 ER. Only 67.8% of the runs he gives up are earned. Just to provide a quick-and-dirty comparison, the ER rate for our current starters when they were in the minors:
Halladay: 84.0%
Hamels: 80.0%
Happ: 86.7%
Blanton: 82.4%
Kendrick: 83.0%
Moyer: 79.9%
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Nice game for Julio Rodriguez in the second game of the Lakewood doubleheader:
6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K
That’s a 19-year-old who just got promoted to A-ball. Maybe we have another serious pitching prospect on our hands.
TINSTAAPP Taco, TINSTAAPP.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 26, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
"They traded Werth"
When we walked in tonight, the security guard who checked our backpack said “There are going to be a lot of angry people here tonight — they traded Werth”. I spent the next half hour trying to find something about it on the internet. The only thing I can think of is he must have been reacting to Werth not being in the starting lineup.
I watched some of that on the treadmill at the gym. Garza was throwing pretty well, and other than them cutting in with Alex friggin’ Rodriguez at bats (just hit #600, would ya, so life can move on?) it was a pretty good game.
I'm not sold on any "resurgence" just yet.
They looked really good right after sweeping the Reds at home, too, then went on that horrific streak of road games at Chicago and St. Louis.
It’s easy to look great at home against a struggling team. Let’s see them win a road series, say, in Washington and/or Florida, before we get too excited.
Also, looking past the Diamondbacks is a mistake. Remember when the Phillies were going to get some cheap wins playing the Pirates in a 4-game series? Yeah.
I’m not sold on a resurgence yet either, but there is a difference here. They looked okay against the Reds but not really good. They just barely squeaked out most of those wins. Against Colorado they’ve looked much more dominant, albeit against a team that’s not as strong as the Reds.
was at the game
A few observations:
—Blanton got better as the day went on, but I wouldn’t say he was sharp exactly. Manuel took him out at the perfect time… unlike last week.
—Bad Rockies defense might have been responsible for all three Phils runs in the second inning. Outfield misplays on the Dobbs and Schneider hits, then Giambi’s two errors.
—Polanco had a superb AB to knock in the fourth run and chase Hammel: fell behind 0-2, worked the count even, and just took it the
other way for a single. Then Ibanez plated the fifth run off the lefty specialist Flores.
—Lidge was awful, but he never should have been in the game after throwing 30 pitches yesterday. Given Spilborgh’s awesome numbers against the Phils, it was pretty stunning he escaped.
—Jim Wolf’s strike zone was deeply weird. Didn’t seem to especially help either team, but made the 9th that much more stressful.
by dajafi on Jul 26, 2010 11:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Justice alert?….Dan Haren was removed from his first start with the Angels after being hit by a line drive.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 26, 2010 11:47 PM EDT reply actions
Just saw it on Sportscenter…probably a precautionary measure more than anything else.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 26, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s why Joe Saunders has a higher winning percentage. Because we know that is the only stat that can tell you how good a pitch really is.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 26, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Saunders, man, he’s just that kind of guy where, if his team only scores one run for him, he’ll reach deep into the cockles of his heart, or maybe the center of his gut, or wherever extreme grittiness/scrappitude comes from, and pitch a shutout. Because that’s what the great ones do. They play the game the right way and never give up, unlike that pansy Haren.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 27, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Saunders is the kind of guy who is inspired by the Patron Saint of Grission™, St. David of Eckstein.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 27, 2010 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The Haren deal was a salary dump.
Saunders is arbitration-eligible through 2012, and I believe that the Angels are paying the rest of his 2010 salary. The D-backs save a lot of money.
To get the same financial benefit from the Phillies, the D-backs would have had to accept J.A. Happ as the major-league arm. This they may not have been willing to do.
Blanton would have given the D-Backs a major-league arm of the quality they could accept, but the Phils then could not give the D-Backs the salary relief they were seeking.
The Phillies could have easily matched the minor-league part of the deal without giving up any of our top prospects.
My guess is that the D-Backs wanted salary relief first, a middle-of-the-rotation, major-league arm second, and decent prospects third. That’s why the Phils couldn’t pull off the Haren deal.
Actually, the Phils could have offered superior salary relief. Saunders is going to make $6-7 million next year, whereas Happ won’t hit arbitration for at least another year. Add in that Saunders really isn’t a better pitcher than Happ (at least if we use things like xFIP and SIERA), and you have to think that Dipoto’s logic is really based on the win percentage aspect that TP quoted above.
Oh, and the Phillies could certainly have beat that prospect haul, and done so without wrecking their farm — that almost goes without saying.
I’m willing to believe that Arizona took what it thought was the best deal, but only under the assumption that their logic was incredibly faulty.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 27, 2010 8:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, Happ is younger than Saunders, and is entering his prime years, while Saunders is regressing.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 27, 2010 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Happ’s injury history could be the issue. Everyone seems to overlook that not only had he suffered two injuries but they reoccurred after his first real year in the bigs which might be tolerable for someone of more talent but deemed high risk for a guy like Happ, someone who relies on a sneaky 89 mph 4 seamer.
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