A Few Phillies Links for You, July 27, 2010: Oswalt Balks, Lies for Werth, Limpin' Jimmy
by WholeCamels on Jul 27, 2010 7:41 AM EDT
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PrintMcCaffery: Chuck’s loyalty to Lidge could be costly
This is not an article from May 2009.
Rollins hurts foot; status is uncertain
X-rays were negative, but hopefully this isn't a nagging problem all year. Give him the night off tonight if it helps.
Phillies Notebook: Oswalt likely out of picture, Phils eye other trade possibilities
Roy Oswalt, the top remaining starting pitcher available on the trade market, does not want to play for the Phillies, FoxSports.com reported in a story that cites a source "with direct knowledge of his thinking."
The Phillies are employing the Amazing Kreskin now.
Oswalt indicates stance on trade has flexibility
I understand that this is one of those weird trade situations where the player has as much (if not more) leverage than the trading team, but Oswalt is really backing himself into a corner and looks like he's going to remain in Houston, rotting away.
White leads Aeros in rout of R-Phils
Yecch.
Sebastian Valle's homer lifts BlueClaws to victory in 10th
The on-base percentage is poor, hovering around .300, but Valle is still young (just turned 20).
PhillyBurbs.com: No truth to Werth-to-Padres rumor + yet
That whole episode was really a "Worst-of-Twitter" moment.
Giambi's errors overshadow his productive day at plate - The Denver Post
I feel kind of bad for the guy: Brought in to be a glorified Matt Stairs, he's forced into semi-regular duty at first base with Todd Helton injured.
Garza hurls fifth gem this season - NYPOST.com
I'll always remember Matt Garza for being such a tweaky borderline sociopath during the 2008 World Series, and having the announcers kiss his hiney for being "super ultra intense" because he had to write little Daily Affirmations on the inside of the bill of his cap. Did you know Joe Maddon is a wine enthusiast? How will David Price affect the Series?
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It’ll be real interesting to divine the lessons Ed Wade learns here. You know he’s got to have PTSD over the Schilling and Rolen situations in Philadelphia.
I believe you are misoverestimating Ed Wade’s ability to adapt at this point in his life.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
The main difference is that Schilling and Rolen basically forced the trades. Oswalt asked for one but he isn’t making a ton of noise about it. Wade more-or-less had to trade Schilling and Rolen, the only question is whether he could have gotten a better return for them. One would think he could have, but there’s no way to know for sure.
Over at Gaslamp Ball, they’re really against trading for Werth, mainly — from what I can discern — because he’s not a likable guy. That not being a viable baseball-reason aside, the guy’s, at times, been a folk hero here — is he actually just unlikable?
I don’t know where the exact story is, but apparently Werth totally blew off one of their writers when he played for the Dodgers.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Then later Werth’s dad wrote Gaslamp Ball a nasty email.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 27, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Well given that, I’d totally rather keep starting Scott Hairston in my outfield.
Gah, I always hated that mindset — sure it’s preferable to have guys you genuinely like in the team, but not at the expense of a huge gulf in talent. You take your team of David Eckstein nice guys, and I’ll win a World Series with my kitten-kicking, fan-hating, asshole Barry Bonds.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 27, 2010 8:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Exactly. I mean, how many years did we endure that asshat Brett Myers?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Weird that his dad shot back; internet is so weird. It doesn’t seem fair that Chipper Jones’ dad hasn’t written us an email.
In all seriousness, publishing that e-mail was an unbelievable dick move. The fact that the rest of the commenters piled on is a real lord-of-the-flies type display.
First of all, Werth was raised by his stepdad and even adopted his stepdad’s name. I have no idea what his relationship is like with his biological father, but you can bet that it’s at least a little bit fraught. At the very least, his biological father doesn’t speak for him. The fact that Gowan initiated contact with the blog is irrelevant. Gowan is not a public figure. You don’t go after a player through his family – even if there was a way for the player to open the door to that kind of thing, the family member cannot. The blogger just made an excuse for himself to cross the line and act like a TMZ writer just because he dislikes Werth. So f**k that blog and every commenter who didn’t protest. I would say exactly the same thing if they had gone after Jeff Francoeur’s family. It’s just wrong. I’m sure every member of the Padres team would have the same reaction.
Absolutely agree. I didn’t really know the details of the Werth family, and certainly given his dad’s estrangement, this seems like a needless, vindictive move on GLB’s part.
Frankly, that post seems like more of a story about why that blogger is not liked by more people. If I was Werth I would have done exactly the same thing and actually found his handling of the situation quite entertaining.
Yeah. I have no idea whether or not Werth is an a-hole, but I’m pretty sure that writer is one. He seems like a really scummy human being.
I went to the most recent Phils-Braves game and sat in left-center. In the late innings, Melky came in to play LF, and the fans there began heckling him relentlessly. In response, Cabrera made some dismissive hand motions, then pointed to his ring finger. What a dick that guy is.
Seriously, Werth handled that situation exactly as he should have. I really don’t see what the problem is. Perhaps that blogger allowed his hatred of all things Dodger-related to bias his response.
by ThinMountainAir on Jul 27, 2010 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wha?
This is why Werth is “not a likable guy”?! Yeesh, he actually sounds like the hero of this story.
I have a serious problem for all the love they are throwing at the movie Signs over there in the “we don’t like Jayson Werth ’cause his dad yelled at us and he made our Blog lord crap his pants” thread. Signs sucked. If your fans like a movie in which aliens travel across the universe with no plan for how to avoid water on a planet with water on 80% of it, then I hope your team goes another 41 years without a World Series win.
I actually like Garza. I can’t really explain it. It might have something to do with him listening to Tupac to get himself pumped for games.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
or throwing no-no’s
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Jul 27, 2010 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Well no, that’s not it, because I liked him before he threw the no hitter.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
The no-no just further confirms and enhances your already present liking of the man.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 27, 2010 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Cab Calloway
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 27, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Relax yourself girl, please set-tle down…
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 27, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Bonita Applebum, you gotta put me on.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 27, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Garza does seem like a pretty likable and down to Earth kind of guy. Every interview or post game chat I have seen him do seems to show just that. Doesn’t hurt that he puts up pretty good numbers on the diamond.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I was reading Charlie’s comments on one of the sports sites (Yahoo, I think), and I was transported back to the Yankees series last May with the two blown saves, thinking to myself that all of this is a blast from the (recent) past.
I wonder if Charlie subscribes to the Andy Reid notion of trying to get different results each time the same worn idea is used..
Albert Einstein was most definitely right.
Anyone else think this team should focus on trading for a closer rather than a starter?
Maybe I am the only one but I am ok with Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, Kendrick. It’s not great but it’s good enough. None of them will matter if the 9th inning continues to be anything but a sure thing…I say that knowing full well that Lidge is 10/13 in save opps this year.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
We have a closer in the minors who is simply wasting bullets because nothing is being done about Danys Baez.
I’m not a huge fan of trading for “marquee” relievers anyways because of the inherent unpredictability of relief pitchers.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
You are absolutely right…I would rather give Mathieson the chance to shine or flame out, but it doesn’t seem the organization is willing to do so, at least not yet. Which is why I posed the question above. Given the option, I would rather Mathieson over trading for someone. I just feel like the organization doesn’t see Mathieson as an option for whatever reason.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Understood. I mean, I think if a good deal for a solid reliever presents itself, they should obviously consider it. But there’s no way I’d surrender any of our top prospects unless it was a guy like Soria, who is downright nasty.
I think it is a bit of a fallacy that the bullpen is a glaring weakness for this team right now anyways. They have been adequate. I would be a lot happier if Amaro could find a league average middle infielder so we could finally be free of Valdez.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
I don’t think the bullpen as a whole is an issue…Durbin, Romero, and Contreras have been solid all season. I think Madson will come around and be the great set up guy that he has been for the last few years. Baez blows and he will continue to do so as long as Cholly puts him out there. Lidge, as good(relatively) as he has been, he has not been shut down and we all know that he is anything but a sure thing. That is why I think we need someone else. The problem is that it seems like Charlie is going to keep sticking with Lidge until he absolutely can not anymore. Which, is usually well after a change should have been made. Contreras is the only one in our pen who has shown(incredibly small sample size) that he can close. This team needs someone, whether that’s Mathieson or someone currently employed by another team then so be it.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
agreed. Please don’t trade prospects for mid-season rent-a-reliver. Ed Wade did this so often it was maddening, and they rarely if ever helped..
see..
Turk Wendell (2001…120 ERA+ pre-trade, 59 ERA+ post trade incl 2 losses)
Todd Jones (2004…113 ERA+ pre-trade, 91 ERA+ post trade incl 3 losses)
Ugueth Urbina (2005..164 ERA+ pre-trade, 107 ERA+ post trade incl 3 losses)
These are the 3 that stick in my head, and while UU was decent, all of them were markedly worse after the trade.
I forget what we gave up for these guys. Urbina came in for Polanco, right?
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
Bruce Chen for Wendell, I remember that.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 27, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes on Urbina. He completes the Scott Rolen Cycle.
Rolen traded for Polanco, Timlin, Bud Smith. Timlin didn’t wanna be here and ran for FA at the end of the season; Smith never made it to the majors again due to injury. Polanco traded for UU who ended up in Venezuelan Jail.
Todd Jones = Josh Hancock and Anderson Machado (Hancock could’ve turned into something had he not been killed in a car wreck). Machado = AAAA infielder.
Wendell = Chen & Dennis Cook. I liked Cook, but he seemed a headcase.
I agree with you but Soria is now on his fourth straight dominant season. He’s on his way to “sure thing” territory.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah, but with his team-friendly deal, he’d likely cost a ton. Thought I’d read somewhere that Moore had asked the Yanks for Montero+ in exchange.
Eh, I don’t know. I think a couple of years back, when Victorino was younger and making less money, and Soria wasn’t quite the established commodity he is now, an everyday center fielder would have been worth a good reliever.
Water under the bridge now though.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 27, 2010 12:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I still have PTSD from the trade that brought Turk Wendell and Dennis Cook in ’01 that cost us the division then. Deadline reliever trades ever since have given me the vapors.
by WanderingMoses on Jul 27, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
question
I thought this was an interesting question. So, as of right now, Chad Durbin and Jose Contreras are just above the borderline for being Type B free agents. If they stay that way, would you offer them arbitration this offseason? It would be pretty sweet to get even more compensation picks in next year’s draft, but in this case, I can sort of understand the Rubenesque fear of having to unnecessarily give multimillion-dollar one-year deals to these guys, especially since we’re going to be right up against our budget next year.
Durbin and Contreras have both pitched pretty decently this year, but still, we have no fewer than six cheap options (Mathieson, Bastardo, Schwimer, Zagurski, Stutes, Herndon) who could conceivably make the team out of ST. Setting aside the compensation issue, if I had to re-sign any of our FA relievers it would be Romero – albeit only if he would agree to a much lower amount than what he’s getting this year – just because he’s a lefty. I know Bastardo and Zagurski are lefties, but I would like to have at least one guy for whom even the floor is not that low. As of now, Romero won’t bring any comp, so there’s no point in offering him arbitration.
Knowing Rube.. He’ll exercise Romero’s option.
I don’t know that I’d offer arbitration to Durbin or Contreras. I think there is actually a good chance they would accept. Do either one of them think they could get a better contract on the open market (besides from Ed Wade)?
I think y’all undervalue Durbin. I think he could get good money elsewhere. He gives up a run here or there, but he doesn’t sprinkle in the 1 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 ER, 1 HBP line like the rest of ’em do.
If you look at his career as a whole, yes. He spent a year in AAA with Washington, which was pretty much when he converted from a starter to a reliever (Detroit experimented with him starting one more season, but he’s been a reliever since). Prior to his AAA stint, he had a WAR of -2.6 over 7 seasons. Since then, he’s had a WAR of +2.9 over 5 seasons, including a +0.6 so far this year. The only pitchers we have with a higher WAR so far this year are Halladay and Hamels. He’s not an ace, but he is a valuable situational player.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Which site did you get your WAR stat from? A quick glance at fan graphs has him at .2 for this year and a combined .8 for his 2.5 seasons with the Phillies. If he goes to arbitration he’d probably get a raise from his 2+ M… Going back to Taco Pal’s original posts.. theres a lot better way to spend more than 2M when we have so many cheap bullpen options in the minors.
I was looking at baseball-reference, which has him at .8 this year and 1.9 with the Phillies. There’s also a big difference for Hamels (2.5 b-r, 1.6 fg), and a minimal difference for Halladay (4.9 to 4.8).
Honor is no substitute for victory.
I’m not saying he’s a stud, but as far as middle-relievers go, he doesn’t have a glaring weakness (homers, wildness, ROOGY, etc) can throw a couple innings if needed, and doesn’t just have complete meltdowns.
He is middle relief. He’s not good enough to start, nor good enough to close. Guys like this are the dregs of a pitching staff, and a reliable one is a nice thing to have. I consider Durbs a reliable middle reliever. He’s not perfect by anymeans, because if he was, he’d be a starter or closer,
but he performs better than expected for his role.
Nobody here is disputing that, but a reliable middle reliever is not worth $2.5-3.0 million. The question is whether the downside risk of being stuck with that contract is worth the upside risk of possibly getting a comp pick.
i agree that $2.5mil+ is too much to pay for that position. I guess that means I’m in agreement that arbitration isn’t a good idea, BUT…what is the going rate for a middle reliever with his stats?
Arbitration isn’t about whether or not a player deserves a raise because they’ve performed well…it’s about paying them a salary that is in-line with other people in their job that perform similarly.
I wouldn’t rule out arbitration until I knew what the Phils could expect to lose if he won.
WAR differences
There is a fundamental difference in how FanGraphs calculates WAR (sometimes called “fWAR”) to how Sean Smith (a.k.a. “Rally”) calculates his WAR (sometimes called “rWAR”) that he sold to Baseball-Reference. Baseball Prospectus’ WARP statistic is similar to rWAR, both different from fWAR.
For fWAR, they use FIP innings and an approximate replacement level FIP with park adjustments. So if a pitcher has had a lot of BABIP luck, his fWAR will be lower than his rWAR and WARP, all else qual.
For rWAR and WARP, the team defense is used but on an aggregate level. So if the Phillies are 30 runs above replacement when Hamels is pitching, but they are also 25 runs above average defensively and Hamels pitches 16% of the teams innings, he gets docked 16% of 25 runs = 4 runs, for defense and would be called 30 – 4 = 26 runs above replacment as a pitcher.
So if a pitcher pitches for a team with a .290 BABIP but himself his a .310 BABIP, rWAR and WARP will dock him for defense and fWAR will go up.
The problem with Hamels illustrates my issue with fWAR. There are 3 main kinds of luck
1) BABIP luck
2) HR/FB luck
3) Sequence luck
FIP removes BABIP and Sequence luck, but suffers from HR/FB luck. So far, Cole has average luck in 2010, with average BABIP luck (unlike last year), bad HR/FB luck (unlike last year), and good sequencing luck (unlike last year). He’s giving up more HR than a pitcher generally does give his fly ball numbers, but he’s been very fortunately to avoid giving hits with RISP and especially HR. Therefore, FIP would consider him lucky this year, and gives him a full win less value than b-r/rally/sean smith.
In my mind, FIP is about skill. Actually runs allowed relative to what a replacement level pitcher would do with your defense is how to measure past value. The only reason Hamels’ fWAR looks so mediocre is that it has called him lucky when he has had neutral luck.
What is sequencing luck? Also shouldn’t you all agree on one calculation. The open forum thing is nice but unrestrained it makes things look a bit amateurish.
I would guess that it deals with opponents bunching hits together.
Take two pitchers with a WHIP of 1.22 and say they both pitch a 9 inning game (11 base runners) and give up 2 HRs each.
Pitcher 1 could scatter those 11 base runners around and give up his homers to lead off innings, thereby only giving up 2 ER.
Pitcher 2 could pitch 6 flawess innings, but give up 3 base runners followed by a HR in two innings, (8 runs) than another 5 runners in another inning leading to 3 more runs (11). (extreme example).
So essentially both pitchers have given up identical performances, but one just lumped all his hits together and got nuked in the box score.
That’s my guess.
Yeah, I also think they’d be more likely than not to accept. Durbin might think he could get a two-year deal somewhere though. Even if he were to get less money per year, it might be worth the risk for him.
Extension? Sorry, but that is bats**t insane. You seem to view the possibility that Durbin will turn down arbitration as a negative that we need to avoid. It is not. It would actually be the ideal situation for us if we were to offer Durbin arbitration and he turned it down.
The only way it could possibly be worthwhile for us to sign Durbin to an extension is if (1) we convince him that we definitely are not going to offer him arbitration, (2) he believes that his market value is no higher than what he’s making right now, and (3) we sign him to a contract at or below that market value. That is unlikely to happen. If we can’t get him at a favorable rate, the best-case scenario for us would be to lose him.
It’s not insane unless you think he’ll be insulted and flat out deny it. Durbin has had 3 (I think) stable years in Philly and been on a good team where he’s well received, has a defined role, consitent usage, and I would imagine gets along with the clubhouse.
I’m not against getting compensatory draft picks, but it’s a gamble. Here are the options, which I’ll rank best to worst (IMHO)
1) Offer Durbs abitration which he declines, get sandwich pick
2) Sign to extension at similar to very slightly more $ than he is making now.
3) Offer Durbs arbitration which he accepts and loses.
4) Offer Durbs arbitration which he accepts and wins.
(2 and 3 essentially similar)
I’d explore option 2 before just throwing it out the window.
I don’t know. I read that we are supposedly up in the mix for that Jewish lefty from the A’s, so if we get him, that would probably mean Romero’s option won’t be picked up.
"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel
by FuquaManuel on Jul 27, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
What Ruben will probably do: exercise Romero’s option, decline to offer arbitration to either Durbin or Romero.
What Ruben should do: decline Romero’s option, offer arbitration to Contreras.
The rationale is that, well, first off, Romero is in no way, shape or form worth $4.5 million next year. I do agree with TP that we should try to sign Romero for a lesser amount, but if he balks, then you have to let him go.
As for Durbin: I’ll admit I was wrong about him in the offseason, and that the Phils did a nice job self-scouting and realizing there was still something there with Chad. But he’d be due a raise over the $2.125 million he’s making this year if he accepts arbitration, and there really isn’t any way he’d be worth it if he accepts — so probably just best to let him go.
I would, however, risk am arbitration offer for Contreras (provided, of course, he reaches Type B status). Reason being that I think he’s likely to decline: he’s pitched very well this year, and would almost certainly garner more on the open market than whatever an arbiter would give him as a raise on the $1.5 million he’s making this year. And if it turns out he accepts, then he’s likely to be relatively good value on the smallish contract he’ll get, and he can always be dealt if he doesn’t fit into the payroll. Overall, it’d be worth the risk.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 27, 2010 1:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So has anyone else noticed that Lidge has lost a lot of juice on the fastball?
In 08 he was 95-97, now hes 91-93. Youd think that would be enough to break Charlies ‘commitment’ to him.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 27, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions
He has lost 1.8 mph off his fastball. 94.3 to 92.5.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=563&position=P#pitchtype
That is not insignificant, but let’s be accurate here.
His pitches don’t seem to have the same movement. Dutch was wondering on the air if he still could be hurt (or lasting effects from the surgery). I don’t want to keep going back to that excuse well, but it’s a valid concern, all things considered.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Florida loses Coghlan to the DL
Per ESPN, tore his meniscus while chasing Wes Helms around with a shaving cream pie. Dumas.
This will actually probably improve the Marlins. They called up Logan Morrison to take Coghlan’s place, and while he’s likely to be an iffy defender on the outfield, it’s not like Coghlan was any great shakes out there. Plus Morrison’s bat is really good.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 27, 2010 1:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Coghlan to the DL
Per ESPN, tore his meniscus while chasing Wes Helms around with a shaving cream pie. Dumas.
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