If We Need a Replacement for Victorino, It Should Be Mayberry
by taco pal on Jul 27, 2010 10:53 PM EDT
Email
PrintI know some have appropriately compared me to Ellen Ripley from the Alien movies when it comes to being protective of Domonic Brown, but I don't mean to be that way. There are limits to my protectiveness, and I can certainly see circumstances in which I would relent. But if Shane Victorino has to go on the DL because of his oblique strain, that is not one of those circumstances. Brown still should not get the call - it should go to John Mayberry.
The reason is simple. Other than Shane, we currently have five guys on our roster who can play the outfield: Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, Ben Francisco, Ross Gload, and Greg Dobbs. Only two of those guys (Werth and Francisco) are righthanded hitters. Ibanez has hit lefties decently in the past, although he has struggled against them in a small sample this year. Gload and Dobbs have never been able to hit lefties, and they should not get any at-bats against them this year under any circumstances.
If you bring Brown up now, then either Ibanez or Brown will have to play in every game vs. lefties. I think the right choice would have to be Ibanez, but whatever - either way, this cuts against giving Brown the call. If Ibanez gets the at-bats, then Brown will be sitting a lot, which will be bad for his development. If Brown gets the at-bats, then you're throwing a green kid to the wolves in the middle of a pennant race. Brown has a .673 MLE OPS vs. lefties this year. That isn't terrible, but still, there isn't any good reason for making him hit against real-life major league lefties at this time.
Now, I'm sure Brown would perform creditably against righties. But will he hit that much better than Ross Gload? Believe it or not, Gload's OPS this year is higher than Brown's MLE OPS vs. righties. If Brown won't hit much better than Gload, then what's the upside to bringing him up? And how can that upside possibly be enough to offset the downside of either (1) having to sit him frequently against lefties, or (2) having him get killed by major league lefties under the pressure of a pennant race?
No, the right answer is to bring up John Mayberry. Even though Mayberry is nowhere near the prospect that Brown is (some might even argue that Mayberry isn't a prospect at all), he is, at the very least, a righthanded batter. To be fair, Mayberry hasn't actually done all that great against lefties for Lehigh Valley, either in 2009 or 2010. But he hasn't been any worse than Brown. And he was was good against them both in 2008 while he was in the Rangers system, and in a very small sample at the major league level last season.
At the very least, Mayberry probably won't do worse than Brown against lefties, and he could do better. Also, as far as I know, Mayberry isn't any worse at fielding than Brown (though I could be wrong). And finally, we don't have to worry about any detrimental effects on Mayberry's development, since he isn't very important to our future. Contrast this with Brown, who is so important to our future that our entire franchise could succeed or fail in a couple of years depending on how he turns out.
If the suddenly-hot Raul Ibanez had been the one to get hurt, then my conclusion might have been different. But he wasn't the one to get hurt, Victorino was. Basically, there is no really good solution for an injury to Shane. Under those circumstances, we should at least pick the option with the lowest long-term risk. That option is to give Mayberry a shot and hope against all hope that Shane recovers soon.
63 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
RIPLEY
Since Werth probably isn’t going anywhere now how feasible is to aquire a decent RH platoon/bench player. Is there any available? I’d rather neither Brown or Mayberry come up. We’re now in a pennant race and I want proven players.This could be the excuse to get a RH bench bat we’ve needed. I hear the Nats are willing to trade Willingham but he’s a LF and I don’t know all the specifics, just thinking out loud.
Mayberry’s bat has also come alive lately.
Doms D is probably a bit better due to his arm and the fact that hes faster. I dont know which ones better at getting the ball off the bat though, but my guess would be Mayberry.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 27, 2010 11:27 PM EDT reply actions
Okay, in a lineup that had a few more righties, it wouldn’t be a tough decision at all. Yet Victorino has been no prize against righties, and I don’t see this as all that different from Ryan Howard in 2004. Brown also brings some speed to an otherwise plodding lineup, and as such can serve as a defensive replacement.
I was of the mind this morning, while looking at Brown’s AAA left/right, home/road splits, that as of 9/1 he’d have made a real nice platoon piece for Vic. The Phillies could still stick to that plan with Mayberry, so I don’t feel exceptionally strong about this.
Victorino will get an MRI tomorrow. He doesn’t think he’ll need a DL stint, but then again he’s kind of an imbecile.
If he does go on the DL, I’d call up Brown. There simply isn’t that much difference between AA and AAA, he won’t have to come in as a savior now that the offense is functional again, and his platoon splits aren’t huge. He’ll bring speed and energy, he’s a decent defender with a plus arm, and if he’s going to move into the lineup full-time next year, I’d rather he get a taste for a couple weeks now.
by dajafi on Jul 27, 2010 11:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This is pretty much where I'm at.
You make a good argument for Mayberry, TP, and I wouldn’t be upset if that’s the move the Phillies choose to make. But I’m at the point where I think that the only real damage that can be done to Brown’s development is to not play him everyday. It makes sense for the reasons dajafi’s stated, and I’m in favor of it so long as Manuel doesn’t get overly protective of Dom with respect to southpaws.
(What, you didn’t think I’d get my two cents in?)
by PhillyFriar on Jul 28, 2010 6:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You present a reasonable argument here and I agree with most of the points, primarily the fact that another LH OFer isn’t really all that necessary.
The things I don’t totally agree with are:
While you state it’d be bad to rush him in and risk frustrating him if he fails, I think it might do well to get the exposure clock ticking on him so he gets a good luck and some ABs against true MLB pitchers. This is nit-picking though, because as you state, he probably wouldn’t get too many AB’s anyway.
The comment that I think is sensationalistic is
our future that our entire franchise could succeed or fail in a couple of years depending on how he turns out..
I sure hope the hell not. If the future of a franchise is dependent upon a single OF prospect’s success, that’s poor front office management. If Brown tore an ACL tomorrow, would you really write off the franchise for the next 5 years?
Bilzo, you have just entered the Taco Pal Logic Thunderdome. I admire your courage. Good luck brave soul.
Actually, those particular points are fair enough. The “entire franchise could succeed or fail” statement was intentionally hyperbolic (in the rhetorical device sense), although maybe that wasn’t clear enough from the way I wrote it. That being said, the point is that he is very very very very very important to the future of the franchise.
We have put all of our eggs in his basket… look at the last couple years… we’ve traded all of our advanced legit prospects.. so he IS very very very very very very important to the future of our franchise.
he’s projected as a corner OFer which is where you shove people like a young Matt Stairs. I’m not saying he IS a young Matt Stairs, but we’re not talking a staff ace or a key defensive position (like 3b/ss/2b/c). If Brown doesn’t meet the hype, I don’t think it’ll be Armageddon. It will be disappointing, but the team could win without him, and could find a serviceable replacement at that position without breaking the bank.
i guess we shall just have to agree to disagree. His position does not matter. As much as I dislike the Ryan Howard contract, and find a 1B replaceable at a reasonable cost, there are MANY more Travis Lees than there are Jim Thomes. Yes Domonic Brown is a corner outfielder, but so was Vlad Guererro in his prime, Jason Heyward, etc. The value boost given to a 3B or 2B is only about 1 win compared to a corner outfielder.
Say Brown ends up a 4 win player (hopefully a low estimate)… at league minimum. A 4 win player on the free agent market (think Werth) commands well over 15M (fangraphs has it at 4.5M / Win in 2008). Think about this, 15M is 3/4 of what we pay Halladay. This is why he is so critical to our success. If his development is ruined we’ve lost all the value of 3 “free” years of well above average production plus 3 years of below value above average production AND/OR the value of what we could have received in trade.
So is WAR adjusted year to year in accordance to how many viable prospects are available for a postion?
At least per fangraphs
he expected value of a replacement level player is about negative 20 runs per 600 PA. Or, to phrase it a bit differently, if you lost a league average player and replaced him with a freely available guy, you’d lose about two wins.
Basically the replacement player definition changes every year based on how the entire league performs.
And to answer the possible follow up question
Catcher: +12.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
are the positional adjustments, 10 runs approximately = 1 win.
Well, his position matters in a sense. An average outfielder will break .800 OPS in a given year, an average IF will only get into the .700s. But the thing is, the guys who put together the prospect lists know this, and when they rank the prospects they adjust for position. So when they rank Brown as the #1 or #2 prospect in the sport, what they’re saying is that his ceiling is not just to be an .850 hitter in a corner outfield spot, but rather, a .950 hitter in a corner outfield spot. I’m making those numbers up, but you all get my point.
The reason why Brown is so valuable is that (1) he’s a great prospect, even relative to his position, and (2) he’s the only top prospect we have in the upper levels of our farm system, at a time when our big league team is aging. The way to succeed in MLB is to have as much sub-market talent as possible. Brown may be one of the few key sub-market players we have on our roster for a while, so it is imperative that he give us as much value as possible.
Sorry if I made it seem like position is entirely irrelevant. My point was an impact player doesn’t become less of one because he’s a corner outfielder. Honestly, I’d be thrilled if Brown became Werth. Players like Werth are hard to find, even though he’s a corner outfielder.
No, I knew what you meant. Just wanted to clarify it for the record.
The offensive standards are higher for corner outfielders and first basemen, but a person who beats a high standard by a specific margin is just as valuable as someone else who beats a lower standard by the same margin.
could find a serviceable replacement at that position without breaking the bank.
One last thing, if corner outfielders were so easy to find, Sarge Jr, Posednick (pardon the spelling), Pierre, etc would not keep finding jobs.
Dude! Can we get Podsednik, please? He can’t hit for power to save his life, but his average is good and he can steal bases like crazy. He makes a good leadoff hitter. Please, please pretty please?
"Clever girl."
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 28, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoa, I thought he’d leave looking like Mel Gibson. Yeah I was giving him some yucks as you guys have faced off before and this happens to be a volatile issue for all concerned fans.
I am giving you big props Bilzo, I hope your aware of that. Agruing against Taco P. takes brass ones.
Yeah, I hope you don’t think I was calling you a nerd bully, an annoying consequence of sabermetrics often seen roaming the comment boards of Fangraphs like hyneas.
You and FM both take to calling people stupid (FM much moreso) when they don’t agree with you. In my mind, that’s bad debating. If you do that as a general habit (just spew vitriol when argued with) then it gets to a point where nobody cares what you say.
But I think this round went fine. We’re arguing a very minor point, and while we both agree that losing Brown would be bad, I think you overstated it just a little.
I don’t think Tacopal calls anyone stupid when he disagrees with them, they just see it that way because he gets tired of arguing in circles.
Then again, most of the time, either of them seem to be in that kind of debate with you.
Maybe it’s not their fault?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 28, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You know.
If we still had Cliff Lee….
"They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they'd make up their minds." - Wilt Chamberlain
First, wasn’t it the alien that was being very protective?
Anyway, regading his MLE OPS vs. Lefties — is that based on his .767 OPS in 49 PAs against lefties in AAA? I can’t find his Reading splits for this year any more, but from what I recall his OPS against lefties there was in the .950 range (which I wouldn’t think would equate to that low a MLE).
The MLE OPS vs. lefties is based on 92 AB (roughly 99 PA) from the whole year – the raw OPS is .881. If you go to Brown’s page on minorleaguesplits.com, there’s a “Cumulative” button you can click at the top. Then click the “mle” button on the right side of the page.
ok – thanks; the minorleaguesplits site looks useful; it’s good to see that with 10 additional ABs, his AAA OPS vs. lefties has gone from the .656 on that site to .767.
Taco Pal, I don't think of you as Ripley at all
You remind me much more of Léon.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Thanks? What an odd, creepy movie that was, in retrospect. Natalie Portman must get freaked out about it as a grownup.
I don’t have any real strong views either way about this. I had hoped to keep Brown in the minors until September, but if Vic is DL bound for any significant amount of time then I could be swayed.
The only thing I do still think strongly about this is if you bring up Brown, he has to play everyday. Like PF said a while up in the thread, the only thing that’s going to hurt him at this point is not playing. If you bring him up and he’s sitting half the time, then that’s a waste, and you’re hurting him, and you would have been better off with a Mayberry platoon.
Would it really hurt Brown to platoon or otherwise play half the time for August and September, though? If he stays in the minors, he plays full time in August and gets 5-10 extra games. In September, he can’t play in the minors anyway (unless Lehigh Valley gets to the playoffs, not sure about that.) But in any case, we’re not talking about a full season here. He’s probably in the bigs by September no matter what the case, so are those few games in August really worth concern?
If we say there are 30 days until September, and Victorino is out for all of them, Brown would probably play about 20 of them. The lefty in a platoon plays more, and with only Francisco as the other righthanded bat, you’d probably have him spelling Raul half of the time and Brown the other half of the time. Gload shouldn’t take up many AB’s, and Dobbs is too busy playing 3B to take any of the OF share for now.
Who does he platoon with?
Ibañez and Gload are lefties, so he’s not platooning with them.
I don’t think you want to move Werth back to platooning.
Francisco is already essentially platooning with Ibañez.
So the last available option is you stop the Francisco/Ibañez platoon, and let Raul go back to everyday, and platoon Brown with Francisco? I don’t like that. Ibañez has started doing much better since not facing lefties. Werth seems to have busted out of his slump.
I think you plug Ben in every day and let Mayberry continue the platoon in LF.
Or…you call up BOTH mayberry and brown and have the following OF:
RHP: Ibanez/Werth/Brown
LHP: Mayberry/Werth/Francisco.
How’s that for thinking outside the box?
If Brown comes up, he has to basically play full-time (with the occasional day off against a tough lefty).
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah, so after sleeping on this, I think I probably made this more complicated than it needed to be. Here’s a simpler way of looking at it: If Vic is out, our best outfield as of 11:15 a.m. on July 28 is Ibanez/Francisco/Werth. The weakest link against lefties is Ibanez. The weakest link against righties is Francisco.
Two questions then:
1. Is Brown likely to be much better than Ibanez vs. lefties in 2010?
2. Is Brown likely to be much better than Francisco vs. righties in 2010?
I think the answer to both questions is no. On #1, he could be much better, but he could be much worse. Most likely, he’ll be about the same. Note that Ibanez isn’t as bad against lefties as he’s looked so far this year. On #2, he probably won’t be much worse, but I doubt he’ll be much better either in 2010. (I’m sure he’ll be much better against them soon, but not right this second. Francisco is fine against righties.)
So if the answer to both questions is no, what are we bringing him up for? I understand that the “developmental” concerns (will Brown’s confidence be hurt, will he be set back by getting less PT, will the pressure of a pennant race be bad for him, etc.) are rather amorphous, but if there’s not much to be gained on the other side of the ledger by bringing him up now, then why would we do it?
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 95.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
