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Post-NonApocalyptic Look at What's Left on the Farm

Hello, cummerbunds. I typically spew my ignorance at Liberty Ballers but I decided to meander over here for some strippers and baseball in light of recent events. While I'm sure everybody's pal PhillyFriar (who I encountered and occasionally dine with over at Phuture Phillies and the Twitters) will come out with his own list with superb Providence-centered analysis, I can't help but shoot my load a bit early, if you will, so here goes.

It's not certain that Domonic Brown will remain with the team once Shane Victorino comes back, but let's operate under the assumption that he has graduated from prospect status. Now that Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar have been shipped to Toronto and Houston respectively (read this), we're left with a group of prospects that is still somehow very impressive, despite the Vikingesque rape/pillage/plunder of Ruben Amaro. Since July 18th, 2008, the Phillies have acquired 4 starting pitchers via trade: Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and now Roy Oswalt.

Mo' money after the jump.

Star-divide

Here are the prospects we've given up in those deals:

That's a first baseman short of a full team. Thus far, the fellas we've dealt have had varying degrees of success, while the pitchers have helped us to two World Series appearances. There is a finite number of prospects in a given system, but it seems like the Phillies scouting department continues to conjure them from nowhere. Amaro is treading in dangerous waters without his swimmies if he continues to package cost-controlled prospects for older, more expensive arms. With that said, let's look at who's still hanging around.

Rather than make a top 30 list that could change by tomorrow, I'll break it up into four tiers.

Tier 1: Top 50 list, borderline elite

Jarred Cosart, Brody Colvin, Jonathan Singleton

Cosart and Colvin figure to climb up the organizational ladder step by step with each other, and though it would have to be a fairly wide ladder to accommodate both of their bodies, I think Looper/Lamar/Proefrock can find the appropriate one. Extended ladder references aside, both of these guys are big and projectable with mid-90's fastballs, a nasty curve (Cosart), a slurve that will eventually be a tight slider (Colvin), and control with plenty of room for improvement. In Singleton, you have a guy who has been lauded with praise (some over the top) for his plate discipline and contact. Once he gets more power into his swing (12 bombs this year), he could turn into something special. He's got plenty of time before we have to worry about him being blocked by Howard, although a few reps in the outfield couldn't hurt.

Three guys that are all 18-19 years old, two with top-of-the-rotation stuff, one with middle-of-the-order power. I suspect they'll each crack top 50 lists around baseball this offseason. It'll be oodles of fun watching them go through the system together.

Tier 2: Above-Average starter potential

Trevor May, Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, Jiwan James, Justin De Fratus

I debated leaving Aumont out, but this list is about potential, and he's got more than anybody in the system. Still just 21, he's a 6'7 beast that can touch 97 with late sink so I'm going to give him plenty of time to figure it out. May, as you probably know, has big league swing-and-miss stuff but lacks the consistency to control it. Has 2/3 upside despite his demotion to Lakewood. Gillies gets a pass for this season and especially with Gose gone, he'll have free reign as the top outfield prospect closest to the majors. When he comes back next year, I expect him to return to form. James was predicted by many to be the next Dom Brown before the season started due to his scary athleticism. After a rough April/May, he's rebounded to the tune of a triple slash of .356/.399/.424 and rave reviews from scouts. De Fratus has always been a favorite of mine, and up until this year, the Phillies have handled the college right-hander pretty gently. But after an aggressive move to Reading, JDF has responded with 2 runs in 9 IP and a 9/1 K/BB ratio. Due to the pinpoint control and multitude of pitches he can throw at you, I give him the nod over the numerous other relievers we've been developing at the higher levels.

Tier 3: Cost-Controlled Fringe Guys

Antonio Bastardo, Mike Zagurski, Scott Mathieson, Michael Schwimer, Mike Stutes, Vance Worley, Mike Cisco, Sergio Escalona, Drew Naylor, BJ Rosenberg, JC Ramirez, Cody Overbeck, Harold Garcia, Matt Rizzotti, Freddy Galvis, Steve Susdorf, Josh Zeid, Austin Hyatt, Matt Way, Jesus Sanchez, Nick Hernandez, Luke Wertz

Whew. Most of these guys are relievers and I can't express how excited that makes me. It's so much more effective to groom your own relievers rather than overpay for guys that just happened to have hung around the majors for a few years (Danys Baez this year, but think back to Mesa, Alfonseca, Cormier, etc....Terry Adams still haunts me). None of these guys are going to set the world on fire (I should hope not!) but saving money on the bench with Garcia, Rizzotti, and Susdorf or in the pen with Bastardo, Schwimer, and Mathieson allows you to go after high-end free agents and resign your own guys to fat extensions. I'm higher on some of these guys (Schwimer, Garcia, Sanchez) than others (Cisco, Naylor, Galvis) but each one of them can serve a purpose on the major league team that will supplement the franchise players and continue to produce a contender.

Tier 4: Toolbox_medium  (that's a toolbox)

Jon Pettibone, Colby Shreve, Julio Rodriguez, Sebastian Valle, Anthony Hewitt, Leandro Castro, Domingo Santana, Aaron Altherr, Kelly Dugan, Kyrell Hudson, Zach Collier, Miguel Alvarez, Jesse Biddle, Maikel Franco

Here's where the lottery ticket strategy comes into play. I graduated James to the second tier and the case can be made for some of these guys as well, but if any one of Hewitt/Santana/Altherr/Hudson/Dugan/Collier realizes their potential, we could have another Dom Brown on our hands. The athleticism and tools some of these guys possess is unfathomable for kids their age. Santana's walk rate is super impressive but the strikeouts are ghastly. Collier won't play until next year after a hugely disappointing '09. Valle is tremendously streaky with a boatload of talent and the only legitimate catching prospect in full season ball. If he can stay behind the plate rather than moving to 3rd or left, he'd be even more valuable as a trade chip down the road. Truth is, one or two of these guys are going to make it -- and that's fantastic.

There's a lot to like in the lower levels of the Phils system. While there's a nagging concern the major league team is getting too old, if Rube times it right, we could have a fresh supply of big league studs by the time our current core declines. Big props to Marti Wolever and his crew for assembling all this. It's going to be amazing watching the next wave of prospects develop. Ride the high, kiddies.

2 recs  |  Comment 60 comments |

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So I did a Ctrl-F for the odious “t” word. There were some close calls, but this fanpost nevertheless passes inspection.

by taco pal on Jul 29, 2010 11:14 PM EDT reply actions  

I had you in mind, paco tal

as always.

Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter

The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

by Michael Levin on Jul 29, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty wide variation in Tier 3.

by taco pal on Jul 29, 2010 11:31 PM EDT reply actions  

I would have put Ramirez in Tier 2 and split up Tier 3 into upper and lower sub-tiers. But these are good lists.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have that exact toolbox.

by j reed on Jul 30, 2010 12:17 AM EDT reply actions  

I keep all my masonry, tile, and concrete tools in it – it’s the wet and heavy ass trades tool box.

by j reed on Jul 30, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

No love for Gauntlett Eldemire?

by quakerfan on Jul 30, 2010 12:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I think that typically you need to play a game first before you can get on one of these lists.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not publicly at least.

Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter

The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

by Michael Levin on Jul 30, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Who is this “Michael Levin” guy and what is he doing here?

by yosoysean on Jul 30, 2010 12:54 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Awwww sweetheart

You’re doing my job for me!

In all seriousness, great stuff. Obviously the really exciting thing about this system right now is its seeming ability to seamlessly replace those who have been dealt, and while it certainly wouldn’t be wise to count on that trend to continue indefinitely, it does make the future of this organization very bright.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2010 1:43 AM EDT reply actions  

belated prospect report in 3…2….1…

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 30, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hernandez and Hyatt

can anyone go into some greater detail about these 2 guys. Both have very good numbers this year. would appreciate any info… thanks!

by PSUcup1 on Jul 30, 2010 7:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Jonathan Singleton

It was my understanding that they were going to try to develop him as a LFer as an Ibanez replacement.

Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?

by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 30, 2010 9:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Really unlikely the kid will be ready in 2012 when Ibanez is out the door. He’s more likely a replacement for Ibanez’s replacement.

by Cormican on Jul 30, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m still hoping Gillies can be Ibanez’s replacement.

That one article also said they’re going to try Rizzotti out there.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I always thought of Gillies as more of a Victorino replacement, since his speed would be ideal for center field.

by Cormican on Jul 30, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would be more ideal, but I don’t think strict positional considerations should trump getting a cost-controlled option into the lineup (provided that he earns it).

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, I think I’m more-so saying his long term future (hopefully) is as Vic’s replacement.

by Cormican on Jul 30, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, definitely. In a perfect world, Gillies would play left alongside Shane for one year, then shift over to center the following opening up left for [???]. Just like Shane started out as a rightfielder, then shifted to center when Aaron Rowand left. Circle of life.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

So

Back to my question … Jonathan Singleton at 1st base will never make the big club. What are they going to do with him?

Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?

by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 30, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Outfield

He played it before being drafted, he’s said he’s willing to play there again.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jul 30, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’ll probably take, at the very least, two or three years to get to the majors anyway. It’s highly premature to even worry about this. A lot can change between now and then.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, certainly. I was just going along with the assumption. Singleton is rather cockblocked at first by Howard at the present time and for the foreseeable future, but it’s not an indefinite thing, and Singleton does have alternatives during that time frame.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jul 30, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, right, I was agreeing with you.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Howard was cockblocked by Thome at one point, and that worked out ok. Maybe we deal Howard in the final year or two of his deal, similar to what we did with his predecessor.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 31, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

2 or 3 years! Does that include flight school?

by j reed on Jul 30, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just meaning to say that the presumption that Ryan Howard will last forever (or even the length of his contract) is not a sure thing in my mind

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we can pretty much guarantee that he won’t last forever.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well obviously, a littler hyperbole is not always a bad thing (I know cause you used it at least once this week purposely ;)

But the point I was trying to make is the same one you made while I was typing mind, that saying he’ll never play first is an awful lot of psychic prediction across the space time continuum and it’s not like anyone here has a blue box that’s bigger on the inside than the outside that they stole when they were a time lord janitor or anything

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nor is a little irony.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but i truly suck at irony, like alanis morisette bad

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

In fact, in this history of time NO ONE was is or ever will be worse at irony than me

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never going to make the big club as a first baseman? Kids 18 years old and Ryan Howard is not immortal

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

do you want to wait till he’s 24 to bring him up?

Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?

by sowhatifitisasportste on Jul 30, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jonathan Singleton was born in September of 1991, (birthday is a day before one of my sisters, but who cares right?). In 2-3 years he’ll still be quite young. Additionally, you can not predict the future. Ryan Howards future is not known to you, you are not tapped into psychic powers, so your assertions about ‘never playing first’ is a bit premature.

BTW – how old were Ryan Howard and Chase Utley when they became every day starters?

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don’t forget the traded Thome when he had lots of money left on his contract.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 31, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

To make room for howard no less, so yeah ;)

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 31, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would actually be a pretty normal development time for a HS player in the minors.

by Cormican on Jul 30, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Incidentally, Michael Taylor, who was struggling like crazy in AAA earlier this year, has righted the ship a bit. In July: .313/.404/.434 (99 AB). Since the AAA all-star break: .339/.418/.458 (59 AB). The power is still MIA though. Maybe it’s allergic to the West Coast, as it was missing when he was at Stanford too from what I understand.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 10:08 AM EDT reply actions  

And it’s scary to think that it could have been Brown out there right now instead of Taylor.

"F#$% [player]!" --FuquaManuel

by FuquaManuel on Jul 30, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’d still do some questionably legal things to get Taylor back here. He’ll be a stud.

Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter

The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

by Michael Levin on Jul 30, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

What irks me about Taylor: the Jays turned him into Gose via Brett Wallace. If they’d wanted Gose so goddamn badly, couldn’t they just have taken him in the Halladay deal?

(Though this seems unlikely, I guess it’s possible that Anthopoulos asked for him and the Phils said no. So maybe it’s Amaro’s fault. Point is I wish we still had Taylor, because I agree he’s going to be a good big-leaguer.)

by dajafi on Jul 31, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Their estimation of Gose could have gone up. A 19-year-old who holds his own in High-A is probably a better prospect than an 18-year-old who holds his own in Low-A.

by taco pal on Jul 31, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I heard it somewhere that he was on their list of wants in the Halladay deal.

by Cormican on Aug 1, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

He also had a sportsman hernia towards the end of last year. I’m not sure if went under the knife of not. Either way it could explain some of that drop off

by j reed on Jul 30, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

And the Legend of Michael Levin grows …

by Jordan Sams on Jul 30, 2010 2:21 PM EDT reply actions  

One year when he was with the Cavs, Yahoo fantasy basketball made Jumaine Jones eligible as both a G and a F — meaning he could slot in at 4 of the 5 spots in our 5-man fantasy lineup.

So what I’m trying to say is that Michael Levin is as versatile as that fantasy Jumaine Jones… only, you know, he’s way better than Jumaine Jones.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2010 2:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

In his own mind at least he is

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sigh

Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter

The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

by Michael Levin on Jul 30, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I presume this is a feud I’m unfamiliar with given my limited activity over on LB.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

From the spillover at RU, I believe Mr. Levin is involved in a truly incredible amount of snark. Nay, he is drowning in snark. His entire life is snark. His breakfast is snark syrup on snarkcakes, with a snark juice chaser.

Honor is no substitute for victory.

by The Dark on Jul 30, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jumaine is sitting next to me

I’ll tell him you said so, thanks!

Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter

The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn

by Michael Levin on Jul 30, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I once saw Jumaine Jones at TGI Friday’s on City Line Avenue.

by taco pal on Jul 30, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

The one right by the hotel?

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have clearly missed something, which is obviously what I get for not following NBA basketball.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of suffering with a lot less to look forward to a lot worse GM and a lot worse ownership

by SportingFanaticism on Jul 30, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

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