Runs Scored for Pitchers?

I've developed a curiosity in the last few years related to how a team's offense performs according to the pitcher on the mound. I first noticed this trend when Roger Clemens was pitching for the Astros and putting up dominant start after dominant start. However, he had no wins to show for it because the team never scored for him.


I posit that teams tend to score more runs when their less effective starting pitchers are on the mound. The cause(s) could be any of several possibilities.

-First, that teams somehow have a different, more focused approach to hitting with bad pitchers on the mound for them, because they know they'll need more runs. (sounds like something Joe Morgan might say. blech.)

-Second, that Team A's crappy pitchers tend to be matched up against the crappy pitchers for any Team X (possible/likely, but I don't know how to research this)

-Simple luck (also possible/likely)

On the heels of last night's game, with the Phillies scoring 12 for Kyle Kendrick, I decided to take a look at the Phillies numbers.

Runs scored for Phillies starting pitchers (FIP in parentheses):

Roy Halladay (2.86): 68 runs scored for, 17 starts = 4 R/g

Cole Hamels (4.68): 64 runs scored for, 16 starts = 4 R/g

Joe Blanton (5.32): 59 runs scored for, 11 starts = 5.36 R/g

Jamie Moyer (4.57): 75 runs scored for, 16 starts = 4.69 R/g

Kyle Kendrick (4.9): 97! runs scored for, 16 starts = 6.06 R/g


Overall, the Phils have scored 379 runs in 79 games, 4.79 runs per game. So the Phightins scored well more than their average for Blanton and Kendrick (the two worst pitchers on the staff in terms of results this year), on their average for Moyer, and below their average for Hamels and Halladay, nominally their best pitchers.

So, in a small sample size, there is something there, at least to my untrained eye. I don't care to put in the time to find the average FIP for all the starters opposed by each Phillies starter and add that to the equation (Basically the quality of competition, the second possible cause listed above).

My question to the TGP community is twofold:

-Has anyone heard of research to this effect at BP or some other analysis place?

-Would anyone have the computing power/time to put together a study of this theory, combining the career FIP of the own-team starter, the career FIP of the other-team starter, and the runs scored by the own-team in relation to average?

Anyhow, just some food for thought on our great nation's 234th birthday. Go America.

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