Garrett Atkins Anyone?
by David S. Cohen on Jul 7, 2010 3:07 PM EDT
71 comments
The Orioles released Garrett Atkins yesterday. Could he be a good stop-gap solution for the Phillies?
Before I get into the pros and cons, let's make one thing clear -- this is not the Garrett Atkins who played for the Rockies from 2005 through 2008. That Garrett Atkins would be a no-brainer. He finished fourth in rookie of the year voting in 2005 and 15th in MVP voting in 2006. Over those four years, he had a .301/.364/.482 triple-slash line, good for an .846 OPS and a 110 OPS+. In the Phillies current situation, that Garrett Atkins would be an amazing addition to the team.
But we're not talking about that Garrett Atkins. Yes, technically, the Garrett Atkins released yesterday by the Orioles inhabits the same body and shares the same DNA as the Garrett Atkins described in the last paragraph, but that's about the end of the similarities.
The Garrett Atkins we're talking about here is a different creature. In 2009 and 2010, this Garrett Atkins has a .223/.299/.326 triple-slash line. That adds up to a .625 OPS and a 62 OPS+. I don't want to get too technical on you here, but that sucks. Big time.
So what good could this Garrett Atkins possibly do for the Phillies? That's the question. The Orioles are on the hook for his salary for this year, so the Phillies could get him for the league minimum for the remainder of the year. He plays third base, so he could replace Greg Dobbs now. And when Placido Polanco comes back but while Chase Utley is still on the shelf, Polanco can shift to second.
But should the Phillies do it?
I would probably land on the side of worth a shot. But, it's not an easy call at all. Here's what I see as the pros and cons:
Pros: He used to mash. As recently as 2008, he had a .780 OPS with 22 HR, and 99 RBI. He hits right handed and mashes lefties, and the Phillies lineup could use another power-hitting right-handed batter. He has historically been a better second-half player, with a career OPS almost .060 higher in the second half. He's only 30, and PECOTA predicted him to have a 1.7 WARP this year with a .291/.357/.466 triple-slash line. The last two years, his BABIP has been very low. And currently, the Phillies' third baseman is Greg Dobbs.
Cons: Despite having a $4.5M contract, he was released by the Orioles, who have an offense just slightly better than Ed Wade's Houston Astros. That should probably be a conclusive argument by itself. But his stats make it even worse. In 44 games this year, his OPS+ was 53 (following on last year's dreadful 66). He had a .214/.276/.286 triple-slash this year. And no, that's not a misprint. His WARP is -2.0. Again, not a misprint. He was designated for assignment almost two weeks ago, and no team claimed him on waivers.
There's no arguing that Atkins is having a horrible stretch over the past year and a half. But, given the Phillies injury issues, I would give him a shot. After all, Cerberus can't produce like this forever.
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Put it this way…he can’t be worse than our other Orioles pick-up:
Danny Baez
Preaching the Inglewood Jack
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 7, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Don't be so sure
He hit ZERO home runs while playing first this year. ZERO. We didn’t a HR from a 1B until the week we DFA’d him.
"Overdrive the sound and make it sound pretty rude." - Jimmy Page
One-year wonder
Yikes. Unfortunately we don’t have any more games at Coors Field this year…
Home-road splits (OPS)… 2005-2009 with Colorado, 2010 with Baltimore:
2005: .903-.649
2006: .999-.933
2007: .936-.773
2008: .904-.661
2009: .680-.624
2010: .518-.602
Was 2008 the year they started using the humidor?
by David S. Cohen on Jul 7, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
While I know that Cerberus will not produce like they have been (and there is some argument- see last night- that they are already regressing), I do not know that Atkins is a good option. How much better is he than the current Dobbs/Castro/Ransom group of players?
It seems that he played well at Coors Field, but is not that good when away from it. I doubt he would be much help.
Hmmmm. That’s an expensive gamble. Still it’s chaw for my brain to chew on till the game starts. Be interested to hear what everyone thinks.
oh wait did I read that wrong? I am thinking we’d have to pick up the 4.5 mil. But I don’t think that’s the case. The O’s ate it. Right?
Correct
The O’s are on the hook for his salary regardless of whether he sits at home for the rest of the year or plays everyday for another team.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 7, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Even at pro-rated $400,000 (which means he'd cost the Phils $200K)
it would be wasted money.
Dude is DONE. Trust me. I’ve seen just about all of his 44 games and 152 PA this year, and dude is DONE.
"Overdrive the sound and make it sound pretty rude." - Jimmy Page
I guess he must have turned down a minor league assignment from the O’s, so he’d be unlikely to take one from us. That would be ideal: let him get ABs in AAA and see if he starts to show anything.
He is friends with Utley, so perhaps there would be some motivation to come to Philly, given our current predicament and the Phils being a NL team.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
But what’s the motivation from Philadephia if he stinks?
The phillies have already been to Denver this year haven’t they?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 7, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s of the “if you can get him for next to nothing it’s worth a shot” variety.
Yes, but one game was PPD, I believe.
"Tortorella’s got it all wrong ... Gaborik shouldn’t be messing with our skilled player." -Peter Luukko
It was. I believe it is being played 9/2.
by dannijd on Jul 7, 2010 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He said he would accept a MiL deal
from any team aside from Baltimore.
"Overdrive the sound and make it sound pretty rude." - Jimmy Page
Phillies 3B
Since Polanco went down: .243/.317/.351. That’s not good, but it looks incredible compared to Atkins’ year this year.
An emphatic YES. Guys benefit from changes in scenery, as cliche as it sounds. Burrell in San Fran, Barajas in NY, Matt Spencer immediately after we traded him in the Blanton deal — it doesn’t always happen, but it happens. Low risk, infinitely high reward if he’s strategically placed in a lineup that can mash.
Lose Castro, give Atkins a shot.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
What's the downside?
A roster spot? So what? Lightning in a bottle. Low-risk, potentially rewarding pickup. I kind of like the idea..
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 7, 2010 4:43 PM EDT reply actions
Having watched the Orioles all year, the Phillies need to stay far far away from Garrett Atkins
Any numbers he’s put up in the past are irrelevant, he’s not close to the same player and shows no sign of being able to turn it around.
I already went through seeing the Phillies finally get rid of Adam Eaton just to see him sign with the Orioles, I’m not sure I can handle the reverse happening with Garrett Atkins.
I'd pass.
For whatever reason, he’s just fallen off a cliff since 2007. Since then, he’s shown no power, hasn’t been able to control the strike zone at all, and we’re overlooking the most important point: he’s an absolute rubbish defender. He’s a 5.8 UZR/150 in his career at third base - so bad that he hasn’t even played there this year. In short, I can’t think of any upgrade he really brings to the table.
Now, I wouldn’t mind signing him to play in Triple-A, with a set option date we’d need to call him up to the majors (say, August 1). But past that, I’d vote no.
Okay so not Atkins. But I still think a right handed utility man is still needed for next year at the very least. Why not get one now if that is possible since we could use a stop gap anyway or would be overpaying.
At some point, your upbringing stops being an excuse and starts being a crutch
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 7, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Oversimplification. It’s not a crutch – I didn’t say he shouldn’t have paid the price for his past transgressions. And that doesn’t mean he can’t play baseball. Oh I forgot professional athletes are fucking choir boys.
It sounded like you were excusing his childhood for his poor beahvior, many folks who have bad childhoods don’t act like prima donnas and aren’t making millions of dollars a year.
He has no one to blame for his behavior any more than himself
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 7, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I just noticed in the sidebar that Harold Garcia and Justin De Fratus have been promoted to Reading. Huzzah.
damn. How wonderful for them. I so gotta go to Reading now. Damn people in Philly area, there are really good players at Reading and Lakewood now. If you’re tired of slumpmas and want relief on the wallet, go see um.
It’s fun, isn’t it? I always say, “No matter how crappy the Phillies are playing, I can find one thing in a minor league box score that night that makes me happy.”
It’s one of my many sicknesses. Body odor is another.
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / @TAFKAMikeBourn
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
by Michael Levin on Jul 8, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm thinking there's some deal here
where we can leverage the money, the Kendrick, the Castro, and take Atkins off their hands in combination with a guy who, you know, doesn’t suck.
Gawd, Kendrick in the AL East. Now there’s a laff.
No need for a deal, you can just have him
If you really twist our arm, we’ll probably throw in Julio Lugo
You drive a hard bargain, sir. We’ll chuck in Danys Baez and, to even it out, how about you add in Brian Matusz? ;-)
Really though,
I’m a big fan of both teams and i’m hopeful that we can work something out that benefits both teams. The Orioles have a few pieces that could help the Phillies though this rough patch and the Phillies can send back a few useful pieces to help the Orioles (continue to) rebuild without draining the farm system too much.
Although when you look at Roy Halladay’s humble beginnings – After his inital success he pitch so poorly we demoted to single A where he was rebuilt into a T-800
Mormon no moar
I had read it right after the Phillies traded for him (I was trying to get to know the newest Phillie). Knowing how hard he worked to be successful, and to come back following huge setbacks to his career to be an even netter pitcher makes him a player that I very much admire and respect all the more. He also give me hope in my own life— yes my legal career is currently stalled (unemployed contract attorney is about as A Ball as it comes in the legal profession), but I can re-tool while I am here, refocus, and still wind up successful— it gives me hope!
by dannijd on Jul 8, 2010 1:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have this weird fantasy where ten years from now Kyle Kendrick is the second coming of Roy Halladay – and most of the Good Phight have stopped being baseball fans.
by phillyinportland on Jul 10, 2010 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, exactly. With the caveat that you can never have too much of anything, the rotation hasn’t been a problem this year. Also, it’s never a good idea to trade for middle relief in circumstances like these. Charlie was wrong to say what he said.
Atkins wouldn't be any help right now
Atkins needs to keep swinging til his groove comes back. He’d never get enough swings if the Phils sign him as a bench player. A couple of pinch hits and the year will be over. What a waste. He needs to be in the minors. By all means, give him a try there. Keep him away from Milt Thompson. All he knows is how to extend your time in the batter’s box.
If Polanco is back after the ASB
Do the Phillies still need infield help?
I think not, so the whole Atkins, Wigginton discussion may be gloriously moot (since to the best of my poor understanding of statistics, Polanco is head and shoulders better than either of them… But I could be wrong (after all, the only hitting statistic I understand is batting average)
by dannijd on Jul 7, 2010 11:31 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
If they can find someone who plays second base better than any of the three headed dog on the bench, then yes – they still need infield help until (if) Utley is back.
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 7, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that the best possible second baseman is already on the team— it is probably easier to find a third baseman to cover and let Polanco (the reigning AL gold glove award winner at second base take over duty there)
by dannijd on Jul 8, 2010 12:40 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Then you’d still need infield help because you’d still have that 3 headed dog playing third base, no?
by SportingFanaticism on Jul 8, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
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