Stat Notes - Aug 16

I agree, the results for Runs per game are a bit backward of your initial thinking. However, it makes some sense when you think about it (hitters are seeing less pitches because they are hitting them more, hence, scoring more runs). Nice job.

Very interesting (and counterintuitive) stuff. Nice first post!

I think the K% column is the most important one there. If the team as a whole is seeing less than 3.6 pitches per at bat, that means that it’s not striking out much at all (as a strikeout needs at least 3 pitches, usually more). With 4.2+ per at bat, that means more strikeouts.

So, on the one hand, your data is counterintuitive. On the other, thinking about longer at-bats and what good they are for the pitcher, I’m not so surprised.

But, I wonder how this would play out league wide and over multiple seasons. Is this always the case?

The “teeing off” scenario is row 1. Thereafter, rows 2, 3, 4 show increasing success with more pitches faced — slugging drops a bit, but the on-base rises. On-base is worth 1.5 — 3x more than slugging per point, so losing .010 slg and gaining .019 on-base is a “win” for the hitters.

Row 5 is rough. Must be the K factor?

Thirding the “strong first post” plaudits.

Splits for the Phils on 0-0 count here. As a whole, the team has a .302/.310/.529 line (I guess there were some HBPs in there?); Werth, Ruiz and Howard have been pretty potent swinging first-pitch, while Rollins, Victorino and Exxon have been pretty weak when they go up hacking.

You went and did the legwork on something that I have been thinking about. Over and over the virtues of taking pitches and working counts gets extolled. Yet working the count does not necessarily lead to success. I wonder if some of it has to do with the pitcher faced, instead of the batters involved. With a pitcher who throws strikes, working the count is less likely to draw the walk— so it may make sense to swing earlier in the at bat (provided that the pitch is a strike). Conversely, when the pitcher is wild, it makes more sense to try to tire them out— try to draw out the at bat looking for a great pitch to drive or the walk.

Excellent post. Perhaps greater than 4.2 PPA indicates significantly more foul balls, and therefore generally weaker contact, since the hitter has presumably taken more swings and yet has not managed to put the ball in play.

Instead of averaging each game, it would be interesting to see the direct link between number of pitches seen and the results. How do those 6+ pitch at-bats affect the data?

Yes, great post, schmenk.

Charlie has got to rest Raul. His timing has clearly been all messed up since the Kershaw game.

I wasn’t upset when he failed to rest him vs. Misch, but I will be if he repeats the same mistake vs. Zito tomorrow. Zito has owned Ralph for his entire career, and they faced each other plenty in the AL West. Unfortunately, Charlie has a tendency to run his position players into the ground. He only rests them when it has a vague air of being some sort of punishment. (Sort of like a less intense, less offensive version of what Bowa used to do to his pitchers.)

Perhaps players who struggle with pitch recognition resort to first pitch swinging more so than others.