Cole Hamels: The Unluckiest Man in MLB?
by dajafi on Aug 16, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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For anyone else, the unique combination of indignity and improbability of losing two 1-0 games to the Mets in the span of six days might be too much to bear. For Cole Hamels, it was par for the course in a season where his won-lost record suggests a fourth or fifth starter despite an underlying performance that should earn him some down-ballot Cy Young Award votes.
Through August 13, Hamels has made 24 starts in 2010. His 3.33 ERA is tied for 16th best in the NL as of Saturday; he's fourth in the league in strikeouts with 157, 15th in innings pitched (154), 14th in WHIP (1.23) and 7th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.27). He's won seven of those 24 starts. In the other 17, he's gone 0-9 with eight no-decisions despite turning in quality starts in 11 of the 17. Incredibly, Hamels' stats in his seven wins are barely better than what he's done in the other 17 starts.
|
Type |
IP |
ER |
H/BB |
K |
ERA |
WHIP |
|
Overall (24 GS) |
154 |
57 |
142/47 |
157 |
3.33 |
1.23 |
|
Wins (7 GS) |
44 |
13 |
39/18 |
38 |
2.66 |
1.30 |
|
Non-Wins (17 GS) |
110 |
44 |
103/29 |
119 |
3.60 |
1.20 |
Take away Hamels' rain-marred and rain-shortened start against the Braves on June 1--when he pitched 2/3 of an inning, allowing three earned runs, before the heavy rain that had fallen through the inning forced a stoppage of more than an hour, after which he didn't return--and his non-win ERA in 16 starts is 3.38 with a non-win WHIP of 1.18. That's pretty much indistinguishable from his overall numbers.
As friend-of-the-blog FTN (a/k/a PhuturePhillies) noted here, great efforts put in without a Win to show for them have been a hallmark of Hamels' career. In past seasons, though, his no-decisions often came in games where he left with a lead before some reliever, usually Ryan Madson, fouled the figurative bed. With few exceptions, including one horrific case, that hasn't been the problem this year; rather, it's been run support, either overall or while he was in the game. During Hamels' remarkable stretch of six starts since his last win on July 11--a period in which he's thrown 42 innings of a 2.14 ERA yet absorbed two losses with four no-decisions--the team has scored 19 runs (including the zero in the last two against the Mets)... but only 8 while Hamels was pitching.
It's worth noting that of Hamels' eight no-decisions, the team won six of them--victories in which he was probably the most significant contributor. That might not mean much to Joe Morgan, but it's pretty telling nonetheless. Here's hoping all those missing runs in support of Hamels' outstanding work this season are waiting for him in October.
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Cliff Lee is a better hitter. Last year, in his only season getting regular at-bats, he had a .485 OPS. Hamels has only come close to that once, in 2008. Remember what Lee did in his first start for us last year? He won the game with his bat too. Obviously, Hamels needs to work on batting practice.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 16, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I like that you wrote WOULD OF, which is filled with win.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 16, 2010 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
My brother is a high school teacher and writes “would/could/should of” all the time. I want to punch him.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
poems from long ago and far away
I wrote and shared this gem with my former students.
Get this right, and don’t be twits:
Know the difference between it’s and its.
When you want to show possession
that apostrophe? Out of the question.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 16, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
unintended, and I harbor no such impressions of you.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 16, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Cool poem- I will have to keep that in mind, lest I put an apostrophe where it does not go!
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 11:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
As I understand these things aren’t there always reasons to punch a brother?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
snark aside
Great post. To be fair I really haven’t heard a whole lot of complaining about Hamels not winning ballgames, if there have been any complaints at all. Although I intentionally avoid some of the murkier depths of Philadelphia sports conversation, so I can’t really say for certain that it’s not out there.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
With Lincecum and Greinke’s CYA’s in 2009, and other evidence out there, it really appears that more and more people in the sport are taking W-L record with a much bigger grain of salt. I’m hearing lots more stuff along the lines of “His record is blah blah blah but it should be more like blah blah blah.”
While they’re still referencing W-L, at least they’re acknowledging its flaws. Progress!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 16, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep. I don’t think Hamels has gotten much bad press at all this year (but then again I live in NC, so I don’t have to hear Eskin).
His campaign is very good this year aside from W/L, but I still don’t think in “the year of the pitcher” he’s going to get much of a sniff for CYA, even at the lower ranks. I’m not sure how many votes the writers get, but I’d think it’d have to be about 10-15 to ensure that he’s considered.
Do you think that this reduced reliance on the win-loss column bodes well for the possible disappearance of the stay in the future?
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 11:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why was jimeneze the front runner for so long then?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
While Ubaldo has cooled somewhat, his performance has been astounding considering his home ballpark. If you can get to league average in Coors Field that is a heck of a season, even post-humidor.
Humidor, Schmumidor
By the way, Coors is still the most hitting-friendly stadium in baseball. It’s #1 this year, according to ESPN’s park factors, and it’s been in the top 4 among the 30 MLB parks every year since at least 2001 (working back from this year):
1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 1, 2
I’d be interested to see how much the gap narrowed though. It at least seems like less of a launching pad since the humidor started being used in the mid 2000’s
They started using the humidor in early 2002. And it’s true that it’s less HR-friendly than before the humidor, but it’s still one of the easier HR parks. Here’s where it’s ranked in HR-friendliness since 2001 (i.e. the last full season without the humidor):
2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 10, 5, 3, 9, 5.
For purposes of judging ERA, of course it’s all scoring that impacts that, and in terms of scoring in general, Coors remains king.
1) 15-1 is more than a good W-L record, it’s pretty phenomenal; 2) He also had a sub-2.00 ERA until early July.
Where did he rank on the relevant ERA scales?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
W/L record is relevant or it’s not.
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought your question about him being the front runner was referring to popular opinion and opinion among sportswriters. Among a large portion of both those audiences, it’s still very relevant, even though it shouldn’t be.
yes and no
Does it constitute the difference between a guy who has a 15-10, 2.20 ERA season, and a 19-6, 3.00 ERA pitcher? The 15-10 guy will probably get the Award.
But if there’s a 15-10, 2.20 pitcher, and a 23-4, 3.00 ERA guy, I’d be shocked if the 23-4 one didn’t win.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
agreed, but that’s more so because 20+ wins is a benchmark.
If it was 19-8 with a 2.65 ERA vs 20-7 with a 2.80 ERA, I’d put money on the 20 win guy.
Might depend on some other numbers like strikeouts and innings pitched, but all things equal you’re probably right.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
And overall team record of course, cause wins on a team like the yankees ‘matter more’ and require ‘clutch’ and ‘grit’ then wins for the pirates
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Morgan referenced it as evidence that Cole was struggling in one of his chats. But that’s Joe Morgan, so when he says something you can rest assured that the opposite is true.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 16, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I know exactly what Morgan’s thought process was when he answered that question. (1) He hadn’t actually looked at Hamels’ performance in weeks, if not months. (2) He remembered Orel Hershiser saying that Hamels’ problem was that he needed a third pitch, which wasn’t hard since Hershiser repeated it about 500 times during a broadcast early in the season. (3) In fine high school student form, he grabbed onto the one thing he could remember and faked his way through a BS answer.
by taco pal on Aug 16, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Haha. Exactly. When you read his chats or listen to his broadcasts, it’s really obvious that he’s BSing about 95% of the time.
I think underneath the facade of I-played-the-game arrogance and his “principled” dismissal of statistical analysis, he is really just quite lazy.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 16, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
You had me rec’ing this comment after the first sentence, like when an Olympic diver says he’s going to perform a quadriple flipple, never been seen before in competition, and then pulls it off.
so rec’d with the crowd noise: oooooooooooooooooohclapclapclapclap
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 16, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
610 does this more than 97.5 both are annoying with the WINZ but 610 rips Hamels constantly. I only listen b/c the local music radio stations only play the same 10 songs over and over.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Aug 16, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
So… you’re saying that J.A. Happ won’t slot in as our number two starter when he comes back from the DL?
He MAKES PITCHES.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 16, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Hamels has the second lowest era of a pitcher with a losing record this year. Felix Hernandez is 8-10 with a 2.62 era
At least with Felix, though, his record makes some sense — the Mariners are a pitiful offensive ball club. The 2010 Phils haven’t quite been their 2007-09 counterparts, but even with the injuries and some downturn, they sport a solidly above average offense.
Anyway, good stuff here, dajafi. I’m just glad, as WC said above, that the WIP crowd hasn’t (yet) opened fire on Hamels for his record, because Cole has been one of the great success stories of the 2010 Phils.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 16, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
but at least feliz hernandez has an excuse, his team is no where near playoff contention
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Aug 16, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
According to park factors at ESPN, Safeco field in Seattle is the most pitcher friendly park in the league. Coors field in Denver is the most hitter friendly park (even in the post humidor era). Citizens Bank Park is toed for 11th with Sunlife Stadium in Miami.
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 11:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ERA+ normalizes for that.
Felix 154
Hamels 125
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Aug 16, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Since I am a little stay dense, does one eat a high or low ERA+?
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 4:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
roy is 6-13, 3.34 era… he’s gotta be in that mix too no?
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Aug 16, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s third.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
what’s that say about us being tied for the WC….?
our #2 & 3 pitchers have the worst run support in the (nl) bigs and we are still in contention… for us to be this close to the playoffs with all of that (starter injuries, bad run support) is pretty special. this team WANTS to win…. and no matter what
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Aug 16, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, Roy Oswalt had poor run support primarily when he wasn’t on our team, so it doesn’t really count.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 16, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Not much. Considering he only started 3 games for Philly
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Aug 16, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Incredibly, Hamels’ stats in his seven wins are barely better than what he’s done in the other 17 starts.
His ERA is a full run better in his wins than in his losses. I’d think that’s pretty significant, BUT it doesn’t change the theme of the article. (that’s the only comparison stat that I could readily compare with out doing even basic eyeball math…so forgive me if his K/BB ratio etc are better in his losses, it’s wholly possible)
It’s nuts that he has to have an ERA in the 2.65 range to get a win.
But considering the offensive production in his losses and some of his no decisions, he would need the never before seen negative ERA to get wins.
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 11:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
that was funny, the first time i read it
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Aug 16, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s allowed fewer base runners per inning in his non-wins.
In general I was comparing wins to non-wins. Had I limited it to “losses,” the gap would have been bigger. That said, he won a couple shaky starts (5 inning variety) in August, and leads or is tied for the league lead in “Tough Losses,” a stat ESPN keeps but didn’t define so far as I could see, with 7.
If Cole Hamels is the unluckiest pitcher in terms of W-L record, Joe Blanton has also got to be one of the unluckier pitchers in terms of ERA. Difference of 1.25 between his ERA and xFIP.
But yet I tune on the radio and have to listen to Eskin and Missanelli tell me that Joe Blanton sucks…I can’t stand the baseball analysis in this town.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
At least with Blanton the results have sucked, even if he really is “unlucky” w/r/t advanced metrics. Hamels has gotten great results pretty much all season (with the exception of his first few starts in April).
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 16, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I think that Cole is not getting hit so much in the media because one would have to be either blind or oblivious to not see that he has lost many of the games he lost while pitching incredibly well, making it easy to see that his win-loss record is not completely his fault. For Blanton, it is harder to get that level of acceptance/ patience because most casual fans do not look at the more advanced stats and see that there is a fair amount of unlucky in his stats. What they see are results— 3 runs given up in the first inning last Thursday, yet another time that he has given up multiple runs before getting out of the first inning, and say that he is simply not pitching well, without looking at BABIP bad luck (I think that fairy has it out for him this year), and other factors.
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 11:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The big thing with Blanton for me is that his strikeout rate is so far down, there are just so many more balls in play, thus more hits/runs/etc.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 16, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Been much better lately though. 7.5 K/9 since July 1, 6.7 K/9 since June 1. By way of comparison, it was 7.5 K/9 in 2009. All of his stats this year are depressed by his terrible first month right after he returned from his injury, including his fielding independent ones.
In any event, the xFIP normalizes for BABIP, and it’s still only a few tenths higher than it was in 2009, even if you include the first month of this season. That’s because Blanton’s walks are down in addition to his strikeouts.
Taking the season in chunks for Blanton, assuming the injury continued to mend, might be a valid way to look at his numbers. It may also be cherry-picking and putting lipstick on a pig. Nevertheless, I think Blanton deserves something of a pass for his first month or so.
Another “Blanton issue” may be endurance [insert fat joke] – his blow ups [insert fat joke] have, IIRC (“I watch the games!”) in the 6-7 innings. Blanton’s meltdowns are still a meme here. That may also be a lingering injury issue. Checking numbers for innings 1-5 and 5-later would be an interesting exercise. Also, moving average as there is additional distance from his return from the abdominal [insert fat joke] injury.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 16, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I mean, you do have to take it with a grain of salt, but at the same time, recency is a valid basis for valuing some stats more than others. As long as you don’t pick your parameters too self-servingly. For instance, if you were to draw the cut-off right after Blanton’s June 12 debacle in Boston, that would clearly be cherry-picking, but a more sort of holistic look at the trendlines over time, I think, is valid.
That is my point- if the issue is fatigue, a bad first inning does not make sense, although perhaps a failure to stretch out and warm up adequately before the game could be at fault.
by dannijd on Aug 16, 2010 4:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sometimes a cigar in the first inning is just a cigar in the first inning.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 16, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, fans are—for the most part—stupid, or in the case of the more casual fans, ignorant of the nuances of the game. I believe it should be the job of the media to educate instead of cater to stupid people. I’m picky that way.
Why is that people can understand that pool is a game of geometry, but they can’t see that baseball is a game of statistics (or inches, if you want to go the cliche route).
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I believe it should be the job of the media to educate instead of cater to stupid people.
I believe it is the job of the media to justify the diversion of economic resources to it as opposed to other alternatives competing for resources within a reasonably free and open economy without undue pressures applied from state planners. Qualitatively, I would prefer a media that caters to my biases, too, but in the words of the famous economist Mick Jagger, “you can’t always get what you want.”
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 16, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s the job of the media to report things that people are interested in and care about., otherwise they become unemployed.
If the general populace doesn’t care about sabremetrics, then the media really has nothing to gain in reporting it.
Also, I understand we have a market driven economy, but there’s a bit of a chicken/egg thing with that when it comes to MM, advertising and such. People care about what MM/advertisers (who are becoming so closely linked, it’s getting more difficult to tell them apart) tell them to care about, as much as people tell MM about what they want to hear/read.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
The profit motive is one raison d’etre, but it isn’t the only one. Not all industries can rely so heavily on it. For instance, we could have a society where private schools competed on the sole basis of who could do the best job at boosting their students’ resumes for college application purposes and indoctrinating students with whatever their parents wanted them to hear, without regard to actually educating the students. But nobody believes that even private schools should do that, because there is too great a societal responsibility to educate students to justify allowing even private institutions to solely chase profit.
speech! speech!
“Today I consider myself the unluckiest man on the face of the earth.”
It would figure that somehow a Phillies player would be most eligible for the anti-Gehrig speech.
Camus also a breast guy.
::rifling through threads looking for that ST shot of Hamels in front of billboard::
I present to you Matt Cain
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK201005220.shtml
Dude has been one of the better pitchers under the age of 25 and gets knocked nationally and on the radio for not knowing how to win. Similar to the way the local media thinks Roy Oswalt is better than Hamels b/c he is a “gamer who knows how to win” unlike Hamels who “just wants the season to be over to collect his paycheck”
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
Anyone know any other 100+ ERA+ guys with losing records?
Greinke’s 57-64 with a 118 ERA+
CJ Wilson is 23-25 with a 115 ERA+
Honor is no substitute for victory.
no fair counting closers. It’s hard for them to come into a game where they can get a win, and easy to enter a game where they can get an “L”
Maybe the phillies should trade for cain then :) Giants need hitz
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Once a pitcher's career is over, career wins is an excellent short-hand indicator of how good a pitcher was.
There is a very high correlation between career leaders in wins and career leaders in pitcher’s WAR.
Over a full career, the best pitchers have performed well in the important stat categories. That leads to more opportunities to pitch, which, in turn, ultimately leads to more wins.
Neither a single game W or L nor a single season win-loss record is much of an indicator of how good a pitcher is, but over a full career and barring injury, we get a good idea as to who the best pitchers are by looking at career wins.
Jamie Moyer
is pretty much the counter-example.
by philsandthrills on Aug 16, 2010 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Over a full career, the best pitchers have performed well in the important stat categories
Or is it that they were considered the best pitchers because they preformed well in the important stat categories?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
(so called important, assuming he’s referring to the simplistic W-L / ERA evaluation?)
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 16, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that Hamels is entering a phase of his career that will eclipse what he did in 2008.
Cole is obviously having an excellent season. He has a shot at leading the NL in K’s and even getting his ERA below 3. If he continues to lower his BB/9, this could be Cole’s best season yet.
Tommy Hanson has been better over the same amount of time.
But both of them should both have at least 14 wins at this point in the season. Probably more.
What numbers lead you to conclude that Hanson has been better than Hamels?
Hamels has a better ERA in a tougher pitching environment and has a higher K/9 and K/BB. His xFIP is 3.52 to Hanson’s 4.02 over six more innings. Hanson’s only advantage is in home run rate, and it’s a big advantage, but this is in part due to park effects.
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