Some Phillies Links for You, August 18, 2010: Phanatic For Sale, Cruisin' Roy
by WholeCamels on Aug 18, 2010 8:15 AM EDT
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PrintPhils, Oswalt cruise
In the vicinity of 12th and Locust?
Phillies' Howard about a week from returning; Rowand speaks
"The thing about these fans … they’re some of the smartest baseball fans in the country," Rowand said. "I think everybody knows they can be rough sometimes, but I think it stems from a good spot. It stems from passion, their infatuation with this team and everything else. It’s a blue-collar town. People here work hard, 9 to 5."
O HAI I IS PERPETUATIN YR STEREOTYPES
Phanatic Around Town
I think they should be donated to several funeral parlors around town.
Right-hander Carlos Carrasco dominated the Yankees for seven innings, and the Yankees couldn't recover from Columbus' two-run first inning in a 5-1 loss at Huntington Park.
When does Carlos Carrasco get inducted in the International League Hall of Fame?
Rowand, Burrell glad to be reunited
I wonder if Burrell still does the "naked with a six-pack" gag...
Dobbs goes, Brown stays
I really think Domonic Brown needs the at-bats in Triple-A, but what do I know? He probably will get demoted when Ryan Howard gets back, though.
Mets Alter Closer Rodriguez’s Contract - NYTimes.com
I've got my popcorn ready...
Wild-card lead just a step
I'm glad the players are dismissing it (vocally at least), but having the Wild Card lead outright means that you control your destiny to a certain extent.
Braves Bash Nationals 10-2, Mike Minor Impresses Again - Talking Chop
Great job, Nationals, really.
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Slow day here at TGP so far…or maybe I have just been at work too long and it seems slow.
Like I said last night, with the way the 8th inning went for the Phillies I am curious as to how Karma strikes back tonight. Bad enough we have a mismatch on the mound, at least on paper, but I doubt the baseball God’s are going to be on our side tonight. Oh well, that’s why they play the game.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Cain’s really good, but for my money, he’s not quite on the level of the other 4 aces on these teams (Halladay, Lincecum, Oswalt, Hamels), so I don’t think the mismatch is as big as you think.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
there is no mismatch
2010 xFIP: Cain 4.40, Blanton 4.43
Career xFIP: Cain 4.48, Blanton 4.41
2010 SIERA: Cain 4.15, Blanton 4.37
Or just accept Blanton as an underrated starter!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 18, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Cain’s kind of a curiosity in this respect:
2006 – ERA 4.15, xFIP 4.54
2007 – ERA 3.65, xFIP 4.61
2008 – ERA 3.76, xFIP 4.52
2009 – ERA 2.89, xFIP 4.22
2010 – ERA 3.11, xFIP 4.40
My guess is that he’s just benefited a LOT from his home ballpark and the other big ballparks in the NL West (and possibly also from his pre-Burrell outfield defense). That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s “overrated” per se, or at least that isn’t necessarily the entire explanation. It could also be that he’s just a perfect match for his team.
I don’t think Burrell playing defense behind him for the last 30 or so games really has much of an impact at all on his bottom line. I think if anything, as you suggested it has more to do with his home ball park and other various big ballparks in the NL West.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Those are all probably factors but there’s also a chance that he’s somewhat of an outlier.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 18, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
The one mitigating factor is that Cain has shown an ability throughout his career to limit home runs, and with this big of a sample size, we have to give him some credit for that. I know his park helps, but a career 6.7% HR/FB shows an ability to suppress homers above and beyond any park effects. In that sense, his career FIP (3.85) is far more representative of his ability than his career xFIP (4.40).
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Could be. It’s hard to tell from just looking at his H/R splits, since so many of his “R” stats are also in big ballparks (SD, LA). I guess the best way to calculate it is to figure out how much the ballparks help the HR/FB stats of other pitchers on the Giants or Padres and then give Cain credit for the overage?
There’s also a slight possibility that Cain’s just had a long run of good luck. It’s true the sample size is pretty substantial by now, but stranger things have happened.
But he also has lots of road games in Colorado and Arizona.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 18, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Right. I’m while I’m not terribly mathematically inclined, I’d think that over 1000 innings of 6.7% HR/FB can only be explained away to some extent by ballpark and luck.
Can’t remember where I was reading the HR/FB% thing, but it does seem to apply in certain outlier cases. Case in point: the new look Cliff Lee. His 720 innings with a HR/FB% in the 4-6 range over the past 3 years can’t be attributed fully to luck, and certainly can’t be attributed to his ballparks.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s true.
Arizona isn’t an extreme HR park though. 1.098 this year.
Last five years for each:
AT&T: 0.857, 0.970, 0.992, 0.808, 0.681 (Avg 0.862)
Petco: 0.841, 0.721, 0.743, 0.685, 0.982 (Avg 0.794)
Dodger: 1.119, 0.876, 0.857, 1.052, 1.194 (Avg 1.020)
Chase: 1.098, 1.042, 1.068, 1.112, 1.343 (Avg 1.132)
Coors: 1.322, 1.082, 1.299, 1.218, 1.167 (Avg 1.218)
Combined NL West road average = 1.041. So maybe his road stats aren’t such a bad metric after all.
Here are Cain’s H/R ERA splits.
2006 – 3.22 / 5.57
2007 – 3.48 / 3.84
2008 – 3.66 / 3.88
2009 – 2.72 / 3.09
2010 – 2.62 / 3.62
Career – 3.15 / 3.84
In any event, even if he’s “really” a 3.8 pitcher, that isn’t a huge mismatch vs. Blanton. It’s a moderate advantage for the Giants.
Whatever. Clearly you’re not taking into account clutchness and in-shape-ness.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else not realize the Phillies and Giants are on Wednesday baseball tonight or am I the only dumbass?
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
As long as it isn’t Joe Morgan providing the commentary – otherwise we will have to listen to whatever horse he wants to beat into the ground – God help the next Sunday Night matchup fans if there is another disputed call.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t watch a whole lot of Wednesday night baseball, usually have softball on those nights but I don’t believe Morgan does Wednesday nights.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I guess thats somewhat of an upgrade.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Shows how much I watch ESPN Wed. Nights
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
That game was downright fun last night.
But it kills me that the Braves just don’t seem to lose. They’re 8-2 in the last 10. Based on their winning %, they’re currently on pace to win a whopping 95 games. And their schedule between now and the end of the season is not bad. Not bad at all. They only play three series against teams with winning records (1) the Phils; (2) the Cards; and (3) the Rockies (barely). They play series against the Marlins three more times, the Mets twice, and the Pirates, Nats, and Cubs once. Bastards…
To be fair, our schedule isn’t so bad either. We, like Atlanta, have four series against teams with winning records: at San Diego, at Los Angeles, vs. Atlanta, at Atlanta. Plus the makeup game at Colorado. Mixed in there are series against the Mets, Marlins, Nationals, Astros (a four game set at home, mind you) and Brewers. So neither team has it that bad to finish out the year. This makes the six games played between the two clubs crucial, in my opinion, especially since the last series of the season is at Turner Field.
by Baseball Nerd on Aug 18, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The Marlins will get up for the Braves.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
But it kills me that the Braves just don’t seem to lose.
Well, it does help when you’re playing the Nats.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
If they were playing in the DC Mallpark, the Nats would be sweeping them.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
At home, the Nats do, and in fact, the Braves are 10-17 at the DC Mallpark since it opened, but in Atlanta, the Braves always play better against the Natinals.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
The charred meat supercharged the 2008 Phillies to the World Championship, a full year later!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
They were overcooked because he was too busy teaching the Phillies How To Win™
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Come on Washington, at least the dodgers were leading in the 9th
At least the nationals did hand it away in the 9th… shame on both of you
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
Did you guys see that post on MLBTR
Trashing Ruben’s tendencies to give longer than necessary deals?
Yes and I agree with it. It’s a well known fact that RAJ gives out extra contract years, I guess to entice people to come to Philly. I have no idea why he does it but it’s frustrating to say the least.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
if the club can afford the mistakes, I have no problem with it. However, if there wasn’t enough cash to keep lee and halladay…it’s a good sign there’s no cash to make mistakes.
ok…so if we overpay Raul (which we did)…what’s the opportunity cost? That we didn’t sign (insert other left fielder) instead?
Well if the club has enough money, they can eat Ibanez’s contract once he starts critically underperforming and sign (insert other left fielder).
So while I’ll agree there’s a cost, if there’s enough cash around (ala NYY) the “opportunity cost” doesn’t really matter, does it?
Pretty much. Yes the team can afford to make these mistakes but these mistakes are precluding them from making other signings or trades because they have money stupidly tied up in bad contracts.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
If you eat Ibanez’s contract ($X) and you instead sign some other left fielder (for $Y), then the opportunity cost is that you could have had an even better left fielder (worth $X + $Y).
only if one is available. If you overpaid Mike Schmidt, then there’s no opportunity cost (other than what you pay him over what another team would have) because you can’t get a better player.
I get that Raul isn’t the best LF in the league )or even close…but he played like it for 3 months last year.
Yes there is. You could then use $X on any number of other purposes (upgrading another position, signing draft picks, investing in Latin America, etc.).
I’m only using Raul as a hypothetical because you did. The particulars of his specific situation are not important.
The guy claims that the Cole Hamels deal was a mistake because it is too long and too expensive, which is patently absurd. Cole is really an “elite” pitcher and we are paying about 7 million per year for him. There were some other really stupid points in the piece IIRC, but when you use something like that as evidence for your argument, the whole thing just sort of disintegrates.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 18, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Braves are close to trading for Derrek Lee...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/braves-close-to-trading-for-derrek-lee.html
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Atlanta is looking at infielders because Chipper Jones is out for the season, but it would be surprising to see this deal completed.
That was 9:22, it has been since updated.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I see.
It would be a good deal for the Braves, and they would get a second-round pick out of it too.
Yeah, probably not worth the risk.
Not a bad pickup though, depending on the price of course. Lee hasn’t been very good this year, but he’s still a solid hitter, and if they really think Glaus is cooked (and he either is, or he’s even streakier than Ibanez), then it’s a definite upgrade.
Not sure if it really solves their third base problem, though. Don’t think I’d feel very comfortable running Conrad or Hinske out there every day for glove reasons, and Omar Infante can’t BABIP his way to a good offensive performance forever.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 18, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
It would be a very good deal. A pretty solid bat and a gold glover 1st basemen…though the thought of them moving Glaus to 3rd would be interesting. Unless they would just bench Glaus and use him as a PH/Spot Starter. Obviously this is not the D.Lee of the early to mid 2000’s but he can still provide some pop to that lineup.
He’s a pretty good rental when you consider where the team sits in the standings.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
The Gold Glove is a pretty suspect award and being the best defensive First Baseman is pretty much like being the Valedictorian in your class when you were homeschooled by yourself.
both baseball-ref’s Rfield and fangraph’s UZR actually have Lee as an average to below-average defensive 1B early in his career but very good defensively since about 2006.
by perfectdepth on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
the braves
are playing a combo of infante/prado/conrad at third
with infante/prado at 2B
by Delaware Boiler on Aug 18, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
If a player is DFA’d, does a team that picks him up in waivers have to put him on the ML roster or can they put him in AAA right away?
Though Dobbs is having a crappy year, could the Braves claim him and put him down in the minors knowing the Phils might use him later on this year? I assume they would have to pay whatever his contract is currently?
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t think they can assign him to AAA. I think thats the purpose of DFAing…essentially protecting an established player from being demoted if another club thinks he’s MLB worthy.
Thanks that’s kind of what I was thinking. MLB has to have the most complicated player transaction systems, things like Rule 5 and all
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Eskin would love that call around 4:15
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
braves next five (era/fip/xfip/siera)
Wed: Tim Hudson (2.13/3.89/4.02/3.83) vs. Livan Hernandez (3.08/3.77/4.65/4.89)
Thu: Derek Lowe (4.29/4.13/3.97/4.05) vs. John Lannan (5.23/4.83/5.16/5.27)
Fri: Jair Jurrjens (3.92/3.81/4.41/4.33) vs. Ryan Dempster (3.62/4.20/3.98/3.79)
Sat: Tommy Hanson (3.41/3.07/4.01/3.58) vs. Tom Gorzelanny (3.85/3.59/4.35/4.22)
Sun: Mike Minor (not enough data) vs. Randy Wells (4.44/3.80/3.96/4.01)
So, the K-Rod thing...
Is it going to get ugly or what? Or, should I say, uglier?
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Well what they are trying first (and the union is fighting it) according to the reports I heard was to convert the contract to non-guaranteed money as opposed to guaranteed due to some clause in the contract that exists. The Union is planning to fight it of course.
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Or is that the same thing as voiding it?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m kind of hoping the Braves make the playoffs (as the WC of course), because the postseason is more fun when the teams you’re playing are teams you don’t like. I don’t mind the Reds and I actually kind of like the Giants and Padres, so all other things being equal I’d prefer to play against the Cardinals and Braves.
Not me. I want Braves fans to suffer yet another year of disappointment.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
This raises an interesting philosophical question. Will they be more disappointed if they (again) fail to make the playoffs or if they (again) lose in the playoffs.
Especially in the last year of Bobby Cox’s reign of terror.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Aug 18, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I have to admit a 3 game Sweep in the Divisional Playoffs with Cox getting booted in the 3rd inning would be pretty nice.
As long as it’s not the cardinals dong the sweeping, i’m good with that
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm…now you’ve got me thinking. Perhaps if they do get in and suffer the misery which was the Chicago Cubs 2008 early exit, I could enjoy that.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
The only complication is that I would like our team to be the ones to do it to them. But of course we can’t face them in the first round under the current playoff format.
I think making the playoffs and losing is more disappointing then not making them at all. But thats clearly just an opinion.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
But what if they do so in Mets collapse fashion?
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 18, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I don’t think it would be that…a 7 game lead in the division in late July/early August and giving it up is not nearly a Mets type collapse. Now if they had that lead in the beginning of September then it’s a different story.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
The better NOT have that type of lead come the beginning of September.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I wasn't referring specifically to the size of the lead
more so that the Mets had a lead on us two years in a row in September and fell apart.
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 18, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with this…though I would love to have the chance to knock the Dodgers out of the playoffs for a third year in a row.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
The problem with this idea is that
while, yes, it would be fun to beat the Braves in the postseason, there is also a chance that the Braves can beat the Phillies and perhaps even go onto the World Series.
That would suck. I’d rather just see them collapse and not make the playoffs. The NL East begins and ends with the Phillies,and I’d like to see it stay that way.
Met Wheels last night at the Phillies dinner. Nice guy. Took a lot of Q & A. Definitely knows his stuff about the Phils.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
It was an appreciation dinner for Group Leaders (since I bought a few suites for work). It was nicely done. Good food. Didn’t get to meet any players or anything, but the Phanatic was there! (my son’s head would have exploded)
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Nationals series...
Strasburg should pitch sometime during the series…I wonder if there’s any chance he’ll be facing Roy Halladay on Friday (epic!). MLB.com listed a TBA for the Nationals on Friday last time I checked.
"Clever girl."
Phillies vs Giants with Not-so Mighty Joe Blanton on the mound
Nice job the Phillies have done without Howard and Utley in the lineup as of late and congrats on coming back sooner then expected Mr. Utley. Tonight, I am hoping either Joe pitches like Roy Halladay tonight or that the Phils bail him out again like they did against the Dodgers last week.
LOL
Another site was asking for sign suggestions to take to tonight’s game and someone came up with this gem:
“Sandoval ate my other sign.”
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
That would be a good one to hold up next to his head on the close-up view when he’s at the plate.
It would also be funny to just say something really blunt and concise like “REVOLTING BLOB”
Recently Added to the endangered species list:
1. Fat Panda
2. Giants playoff hopes
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Also excellent. Too many good jokes to be made at PS expense.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
You know, sitting ont he 3rd base line and throwing bamboo at him might get you ejected, but it’s funny
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully this means Glaus gets benched and then starts whining, thus disrupting the clubhouse, leading him to calling Billy Wagner a rat.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 18, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing that shocked me most was how hot Brian Schneider’s wife is.
by youaretheman26 on Aug 18, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Play a professional sport making over a million dollars and you probably tend to do pretty well with the ladies.
I thought that was just some random lady in the picture, but Schneider’s wife is in fact very attractive.
One of the best looking, I think. Johari is also nice. I just don’t get the Heidi Hamels thing.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Neither do I. I guess the fact that she was in Playboy and on tv makes her seem more attractive than she really is?
I actually met Brian Schnieders wife, very very nice woman.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
is there some type of bragging rights associated with being able to say that your wife was once in playboy? And if you do deem it bragworthy, what does that say about you?
by Boundforbeach on Aug 18, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks..scrolling through now, will intersperse commentary:
Cole looks as dumb as he sounds.
Moyer looks like a drunk creepy old man, but I guess those were his daughters, so that makes it ok.
Was Romero going to hang out on top of Mauna Kea with that outfit? What’s up with Hawaiian dude modeling the parka?
Who is the guy in #16?
Blame his radio station for that one
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, you’d be surprised at how many Hawaiians whip out their furs and parkas in the winter months when the temp at night is 60 degrees. That’s downright frosty for them.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
They are pretty whiny, I will attest to that.
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If Gload is available...
1. Rollins
2. Polanco
3. Utley
4. Raul?
5. Werth
6. Gload
7. Victorino
8. Chooch
9. Cupcakes
Maybe get Brown a start since Cains a righty?
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
From Zolecki's twitter:
Tonighht’s lineup vs. SF: Rollins SS, Polanco 3B, Utley 2B, Ibanez LF, Werth RF, Victorino CF, Gload 1B, Ruiz C, Blanton P.
At least I had the right players, just switched Vic and Gload
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Aug 18, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Over / Under how many runs Cookie gives up in the first two innings before shutting their lineup down in the 3rd – 7th?
Is it me or have the comments on the daily links nearly tripled in the last few months? We’re coming up on 200 already, and that’s without Jemagee
Or the bandwagon grows larger once the playoffs get closer.
Expect it to wane off come regular season NFL
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 18, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
July 2010 was our Biggest Month Ever w/r/t total visits/readers (yes, bigger than October ’08 and ’09).
http://www.thegoodphight.com
That’s suprising given the lousy play in early to mid July.
How is August shaping up?
by philsandthrills on Aug 18, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Lousy play, but trade deadline bump. And sometimes reading/writing about struggling teams is more fun!
August looking pretty good, somewhat behind July though.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Pessimism breeds discussion, at the very least.
by philsandthrills on Aug 18, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
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