Some Phillies Links For You, August 2, 2010: Ryan: "Ow!" Word, Bad Brad, Puke Justice
by WholeCamels on Aug 2, 2010 7:58 AM EDT
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Phillies' Howard only missing a few days
Injuries are weird and basically impossible to assess on television, but the whole reaction to this reminds me of Jimmy Rollins' ankle injury in early 2008, that they insisted was "getting better" but eventually required a DL stint.
Vomit-assault perpetrator at Philadelphia Phillies game sentenced to jail
Now, he belongs to the ages.
Solomon: Phillies are antithesis of Astros
At least the piece discusses how badly the Astros owned the Phillies for most of the last decade. 2005 was abominable in that regard, the Biggio Tragedy never to be forgotten.
PHILLIES: Ibanez should be back Tuesday
Hurry back Raul, you've been the hottest hitter lately.
Better Brad saves the day for Phillies
I don't care, he's still atrocious and is costing this team numerous victories. "The Cult of the Closer" needs to be destroyed.
Paul Hagen: Lidge a sore spot the Phillies must solve
Sure, he could make Ryan Madson the closer. But Madson hasn't been consistently effective when used in that role. And then the Phils would still have to figure out who would pitch in the eighth instead. And what to do with Lidge.
No, the biggest problem is continuing the lose winnable games because of your unwavering loyalty to an ineffective pitcher. Literally anyone, including the not-able-to-pitch-the-9th Ryan Madson can do better than a 6.78 ERA.
Oswalt a small-town guy working in big city
There are lots of deer alongside the Schuylkill Expressway...
Brett Myers gets 2-year, $21 million extension
So the Astros are trying to cut salary, etc., now this?
Pat Burrell's homer lifts Giants over Dodgers
I'm really psyched for Pat Burrell, but it's not good since the Giants are the Phillies direct Wild Card competition.
I want to go to the zoo with Roy Halladay: ZWR Press Conference: Big Roy Oswalt Announcement (Roy Oswalt)
Zoo With Roy addresses the issues connected to the latest Phillies' Roy, and possible outings with him.
Five Ways To Improve The Mets (And Restore Some Sanity To The Fanbase) - Amazin' Avenue
These are all pretty good ideas, hopefully they don't read this.
Guest Recap - Diamondbacks 14, Mets 1: LaHomers Galore! D'Backs get a LaWin! - AZ Snakepit
Nice work, Snakes.
Was Tommy pitching or playing shortstop for the Braves? Reds win, 2-1. - Red Reporter
GREAT work, Reds. Even though the Phillies had a pretty grim weekend, they didn't lose any ground in the NL East race.
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I was at 2 games of the Biggio series
I’m just now recovering
Liberty Ballers / Ridiculous Upside / Twitter
The Artist Formerly Known As The Artist Formerly Known As Michael Bourn
RE; Fixing the Mets
DFAing Perez, Francouer, and Cora just gets rid of bad players. It doesn’t really replace them with anything better.
Ollie Perez kinda reminds me of David Bell. We kept trotting him out there when his numbers said he should be gone, but he was playing because of the money committed to him. It’s maddening. Once you’ve paid the money, it’s gone. Keeping the player on the field if it was a bad decision only salts the wound.
To be fair, at least they did say to DFA Frenchy once Bay comes back. One of their problems is that they don’t have a whole lot at Buffalo. The three guys they’re wanting to replace are a pitcher, an outfielder, and a second baseman. Going position-by-position, I think one, maybe two of those could be upgraded from AAA.
They’ve already called up their best AAA pitcher (Dickey). The next one to call up would probably be Ramon Ortiz, but he’s almost Moyer-esque for age (slight exaggeration for effect, but the dude’s 37). Among youngish pitchers, Manny Acosta would probably be next best, and I’m not convinced he’s much better than Perez.
Given my druthers, I’d call up either Chris Carter or Lucas Duda to replace Frenchy. Carter’s hitting .336/.390/.611 in AAA with 6 HR in 113 AB. Duda’s had 155 AB, and is hitting .303/.363/.665 with 13 HR. Carter’s the better fielder of the two, but with Pagan in CF, you can hide Duda in the corner if need be.
Tejada and Turner are both error-prone 2Bs. I would be curious if Luis Hernandez could switch from SS to 2B. He’s got fewer errors than either Tejada or Turner, and has a .308/.336/.449 split that’s slightly worse than Turner but better than Tejada.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Bilzo, I think the idea is really that those guys are so bad, replacing them with literally anything at all would be an upgrade. For the Phillies’ equivalent, see Castro, Juan.
Oh, and to even further drive home your Perez point: as bad as Bell ever was, he at least delivered solid defense at third base (I call this the “Pedro Feliz plan”). There’s no equivalent contribution from Perez — he just sucks.
The Dark, that AA article talks about calling up Nick Evans to replace Francoeur, and I think either he or either of the two you mentioned make some sense. Though it’s at least worth noting that if confined to southpaws, French is a career .299/.343/.478 hitter. As for the utility infielder, I think Tejada’s the obvious choice: he’s a much better fielder than error totals might indicate, and he’s a solid enough contact hitter whose current shortcomings are mainly a product of his age.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 2, 2010 9:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Perez should’ve been jettisoned long ago, no arguing there. When a guy is pitching bad and has no interest in fixing it (ie refusing AAA assignments) you are almost forced to DFA him, or let him become the ultimate garbage time pitcher.
As for the other two…I don’t think you’re going to get significantly better production from their AAA guys. Maybe a little better, but not significantly. I’d dump Cora on the contract issue, but Frenchy I’d let ride out the year. All I’m saying is that while it might help their team, it’s not going to do it dramatically.
David Bell in his latter years was not a defensive stud by any means. Per BB-Ref, the year before he came to Philly he was worth 8 runs above average per 1200 innings. The 3 years in philly he was +16, +12, +5, and then in his last year -15. He put in two “good” years.
There is revisionism of all sorts with Bell. It’s true that he was a bit overrated as a fielder while here, but the reason why they kept him around was that in the second of his 2.5 seasons in Philadelphia, he was a very good hitter. People tend to remember him much more negatively than the facts warrant just because his first season in Philadelphia (when he was hurt) was so terrible.
I was actually a BBQ with David Bell and Mike Constanzo yesterday. No real insight other than that neither likes cole slaw with their pulled pork.
No, dude, you’re wrong. Look it up. In 2004, he was good against both lefties and righties. In fact, he was better against righties than he was against lefties.
This is what really happened with Bell.
2003 – Phillies sign Bell to an ill-advised contract. He is a so-so player, not worth what they gave him. But he isn’t bad either.
2004 – Bell sucks horribly, but he was playing hurt, so it doesn’t really count, and the Phillies appropriately recognize this.
2005 – Bell plays very well. Obviously, the Phillies give him playing time.
2006 – Bell is below-average for a half-season and has an extreme split. He is traded halfway through the year.
There was never any point when the Phillies kept him around just for his contract. That is really just mythology that has become accepted just because of the frequent re-telling.
Woops all my years are off by one. There was another year in there, and there is an argument to be made about 2005. It should go:
2002 – Phillies sign Bell to an ill-advised contract. He is a so-so player, not worth what they gave him. But he isn’t bad either.
2003 – Bell sucks horribly, but he was playing hurt, so it doesn’t really count, and the Phillies appropriately recognize this.
2004 – Bell plays very well. Obviously, the Phillies give him playing time.
2005 – Bell isn’t good this year and has an extreme split. So yes, perhaps he should have been taken out of the lineup this year, except that he was less than a year removed from a very good season when he had no split, so it might have been premature.
2006 – Bell isn’t good for a half-season and has an extreme split. He doesn’t play fulltime and is traded halfway through the year.
Yeah, obviously I f’d up all my years. Posting while multitasking.
The point is that there was never a time when the Phillies clearly should have gotten rid of Bell, until they actually did. I am as big of a critic of the Polanco trade as anybody, but by the time it was made, Polanco was going to be gone at the end of the season regardless.
If the point is only that the Phillies should have benched Bell more often against righties in 2005, then I guess that’s reasonable. But if he had no split against righties in 2004 or 2006, then the extreme split in 2005 looks like it was just a fluke. So if you’re the manager in July 2005 and Bell has an extreme split, there isn’t necessarily a reason to believe it’s likely to continue throughout the second half.
I’m not really sold on Tejada contributing this year. He’s only 20, and he’s batting .280/.329/.343 at AAA, with 207 ABs. Hernandez is .308/.336/.449, and Turner is .302/.356/.440. In the same way we were concerned about rushing Brown, I wouldn’t move Tejada this year. Turner has a wicked left/right split, but he has a better OPS against either than Tejada.
And yeah, I had missed the Nick Evans part. I thought he was a 1B only, but he’s played 1B, 3B, and both corner outfield positions in the minors. Evans just came back up from AA, though (he’s played 3 AAA games this season), so his 1.000 OPS at Buffalo is an extremely small sample size. His AA numbers project much worse. Looking at the various guys I mentioned (using their AAA numbers, since they have significant sample sizes) and Evans:
To replace Francouer:
Evans: .222/.280/.380
Carter: .283/.321/.494
Duda: .255/.303/.530
To replace Cora:
Tejada: .237/.272/.286
Turner: .271/.328/.379
Hernandez: .261/.287/.371
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Another thing I picked up on was the fact that the Evil Empire designated Chan Ho Park for assignment.
by dannijd on Aug 2, 2010 3:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yesterday with Lidge...
Knowing that the Braves had lost alrerady… was I the only one that was half-heartedly hoping he would blow the save again to force Manuels hand to NOT use him anymore?
But then I realized i dont think Charlie would actually stop using him, so I was glad he got it done.
I was at the game Saturday night and you just knew how that one woul end up as soon as he threw a 3-2 slider to Adam Kennedy… NO EXCUSE for that pitch. A closer with no confidence in his fastball (especially one who lives & dies with on his slider) is completely useless!
Me either! I will admit, however, to a small amount of hope that Roy 2 was more than a pinch hitter (crazy I know, but considering that Lidge and Baez were among the other choices…)
by dannijd on Aug 2, 2010 3:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I said it before, not even Trevor Hoffman wasn’t afforded a leash nearly as long as Lidge. Manuel is loyal to a serious fault and Dubee is just as dumb in this regard or he’s just for whatever reason, unwilling to provide constructive counsel. I think it’s more likey that neither of them understands pitching since the same signs from last are there and without any influence of injury: decreasing FB velocity which increases his dependence on his slider and lack of control; his pitches are all over the place like he’s overthrowing the ball to make up for his waning velocity. I hope I am wrong though and Lidge can correct these things but not if it endangers a post season birth. If we do fail to make the play-off because of bull pen instability, then I’d hope we go down at least trying different things then hoping the hole in the life raft will magically repair itself with moral support.
Mets Fans...
Yesterday’s (Met) doldrums were interrupted by a clip on the outfield screen before the seventh inning that showed the Phillies’ Ryan Howard getting helped from the field with a sprained ankle.
The fans applauded — and then went back to watching their own miserable mess of a baseball team.
(NY Post)
I’d have been more surprised if they didn’t cheer.
by Boundforbeach on Aug 2, 2010 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
By the way...
The “miserable mess of a baseball team” is 6.5 out of 1st, closer than the Rockies, Dodgers, or Angels, and the same as the Red Sox.
On the one hand...
It’s kind of naive to think that Phillies fans wouldn’t have done the same thing had video of David Wright limping off the field been shown.
On the other hand, I’ve gone to well over 50 games at CBP and can’t once recall a semi-live clip of something like that being shown on the Jumbotron, so maybe it’s something that “just isn’t done” in Philly, maybe to prevent something like this from happening…
At the end of the day, it’s nice to have something to shoot back with when someone indicts all Phillies fans as unbridled savages — at least we’re not the only ones.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah
I always mention people dying in stampedes or riots at soccer matches in Europe and say, “So, I mean, we cheered Michael Irvin’s neck injury and all, but we didn’t try to kill him.”
How do you know? I think he would have.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 10:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I picked Wright because he’s similarly inoffensive in a way that Howard is. Rollins is a villain in NY (understandably), Howard and Wright are both kind cut from the same “keep your mouth shut” cloth.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
While I think the degree would have changed, I think anything in a Mets uni would have been met with booing.
by dannijd on Aug 2, 2010 3:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, Wright would have been booed. But the Phillies wouldn’t have showed a clip on the big screen of any of those guys getting hurt.
well…I wouldn’t have booed wright. I wouldn’t have booed any of them, although I’ll admit I would have had some inner snickering at the other guys mentioned.
Fact is…at a stadium….you’ll hear boos on everything. The intensity of the booing on Wright wouldn’t be as strong as those other guys, but as TP said…they wouldn’t show that at CBP.
Ha! You are a funny guy.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 11:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yup… While it was out of line for them to show that (and I would not want it done at CBP) the fans’ reaction did make me feel better about a lot of the bad behavior associated with Philly fans… Mets fans are no better!
by dannijd on Aug 2, 2010 3:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I do the same if it was Jose Reyes.
Glad the feeling is mutual.
I’m really interested in “The Cult of the Closer.” Where does it come from? Why is it so hard to get away from? Why did managers all of a sudden all suddenly feel like they had to have one? (Or did they?) It would be heresy to subscribe to the common-sense idea that you just use whichever pitcher has the best chance of success in any situation, right? It seems so backwards, pitching guys only in a “save situation” as if the stat is more important than the game.
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 9:16 AM EDT reply actions
Money, agents, and the save statistic.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
That sums it up! I wonder what the front office would be if a smart/gutsy manager said “listen, I’m using my guys when I most need ’em, screw the save statistic.” Would the brass put a stop to it?
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
(I mean, “what the front office reaction would be”)
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Theo Epstein tried to do this years ago from the front office, but it didn’t work out. Since then, nobody’s tried.
Seem to vaguely recall that as well. Managers like it because it takes a decision out of their hands. GM’s like it because it gives them one roster spot with a defined roll and only one reliever to overpay.
Fans detest it when the anointed one is ineffective and nobody is willing to fix the problem.
It’s a shame that a single experiment into sanity didn’t work and was killed.
I believe it was in 2003.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2003.shtml
You can primarily blame Ramiro Mendoza for sucking so bad that year. He had some help in killing it, but he was bad enough to do it singlehandedly.
Our old friends Todd Jones and Mike Timlin were also members of that bullpen, though Timlin pitched ok.
I blame Eckersley. The closer role is perfect for a handful of players (Rivera, Lee Smith, Eck, probably Wagner, Hoffman, etc.), but slavish devotion to any idea in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary (i.e. Lidge is our closer) is always a bad idea.
The frustrating thing is that Charlie actually did deviate from it the other day, and then Madson and Romero proceeded to blow the save, allowing Lidge to come in in the 10th and dominate.
It might be interesting to see the pen’s splits when used in save vs. non-save situations. Does the pressure of the 9th actually change performance enough to be notable?
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll go so far as to say that the 9th inning is different, not for “mental makeup” garbage, only because of the losing team’s need to sell out by making offensive substitutions deliberately designed to take advantage of a pitcher’s weaknesses. And just because of pure numbers (there are more available bench hitters on any given night than available bullpen pitchers), in general the offense has the matchup advantage.
I’d expect there is also an unmeasurable psychlogical component to closing, as crowds usually wake up, get noisy, and air out in advance of getting to the parking lot. Also, pitchers themselves have mentioned the difference, so from a perception standpoint, the difference exists because they say so.
Literally anyone, including the not-able-to-pitch-the-9th Ryan Madson can do better than a 6.78 ERA.
It is so strange how much trouble people have with this concept. After Saturday’s blown save I heard Bottalico say, “You can’t win with closer-by-committee.” I wonder if he thinks that’s literally true — that they make you forfeit or something.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Aug 2, 2010 9:16 AM EDT reply actions
Have you or anyone ever really seen a closer by committee work? I can’t think of an example. Doesn’t mean there isn’t one.
Charlie has probably been burned by going with match ups as much as he has been correct.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Well I was thinking more recently. But to your point, it seems pretty apparent that the baseball players of today are not the same as the baseball players of the 70’s. They are conditioned differently both mentally and physically. For whatever reason, they are. You certainly don’t see closers throwing 2-3 innings an appearance ever like Gossage used to do.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yeah I saw that…and that is a great example, but it is one example in the last 20 or so years…there may and probably are a few others but not many.
I am not saying a Closer by Committee or any other term you want to give it can or can’t work. In the end it should be about having quality pitchers who make pitches and do their job. A guy should, again, should be able to come into a game regardless of the inning or situation and do his job. I bet teams could function with a closer by committee system if they had enough quality pitchers to do so. But like I said earlier, guys are conditioned differently. Pitchers not a days seem to enjoy having defined roles…long man, lefty specialist, set up, closer etc, and that is the model that teams have obviously adopted.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I think it needs a new term. “Closer-by-committee” just sounds terrible and ineffective. Something like “multi-headed-hydra-of-closing-awesomeness.” I’m open to suggestions.
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
At the very least it would make sense to have a lefty & a righty closer you could go to depending on situation. But then you’d have two guys to overpay. Maybe the Yankees will try it post-Rivera.
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I would also like to see a lefty-righty closer combo, both of whom can also play a position well so you can just keep them in the game & swap them back and forth.
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 2, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Myers?! So the Astros could have kept Oswalt for 2011 and 2012 at an approximate cost of $32 million (16 per season, if they exercised the team option). Instead, they committ $21mil to Myers over the same time period and agree to pay us $11 million (which together equates to $32 million). WTF is going on?
Put it this way: the Ed Wade Logic Thunderdome is not nearly so intimidating a place as the Taco Pal Logic Thunderdome (copyright j reed 2010).
by PhillyFriar on Aug 2, 2010 9:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It all makes sense. Myers is a decent starter, BUT he is also a proven veteran reliever. Ed Wade couldn’t help but give him an extension. I’m shocked he didn’t try to trade something intrasquad for him.
Well… they haven’t taken aim at Ed Wade yet, but they did take a shot at the Indian’s GM in today’s issue: Indians apologize for not having ace pitcher to trade
CLEVELAND—Addressing fans, rival MLB teams, and commissioner Bud Selig, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro delivered a heartfelt apology Tuesday, lamenting the lack of a Cy Young Award–winning pitcher his team could trade to a legitimate contender. “I apologize, especially to the large-market teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox, that we don’t have a starter like Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia whom we can give away for next to nothing,” said Shapiro, adding that he feels “just awful” that teams have worked so hard this season and the Indians have no way to help them. “But I assure you, we’ve been developing a number of prospects we soon won’t be able to afford.” Shapiro, who said the Indians really had no need for a closer, claimed the team was willing to part with reliever Chris Perez for $5,000 and a new baseline field marker.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/indians-apologize-for-not-having-ace-pitcher-to-tr,17819/
by Boundforbeach on Aug 2, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Incidentally, it looks like Jason Knapp is finally back on the mound in the Indians organization. So far he’s pitched two games in the Arizona League, which I believe is Rookie level.
Carlos Carrasco has had a so-so season in AAA.
Again, I give Myers credit for having one helluva season so far, I really didn’t think it was likely, especially in that park for that team.
I still think there’s enough of the season left (and let’s keep in mind Myers was hurt last season) that if I were Wade I’d want to see an entire season before I did this.
Photo caption
Today’s photo caption killed me.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
If WC ever got out of his mom’s basement, put on something other than his pajamas, and watched baseball games on something other than his TRS-80’s dot-matrix printouts of play-by-play updates via his Prodigy internet service, he’d realize a baseball field has this thing called a mound.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Right alongside the Franklin Ace computer, right? (We’re the same age Blizo.)
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you’re being funny here, but I had that game on my TI computer that hooked up to the TV. Yikes.
Jesus, every day I’m smacked in the face by age reminders. 80’s is now “the olden days”. F***.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Yeah. If you look at things from the perspective of today’s high-school students, they perceive bands like Nirvana and Pearl Jam to be as old as how thirty-somethings today perceive, say, The Bee Gees or Jethro Tull.
TP – was there any other game to play on it? Absolutely.
And doubleh, the TI was my first computer, and I also had it hooked up to the TV. My ultimate olden days of computing memory — saving files to a cassette in a regular cassette player. Remember that?
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the one I had, the redesign that sold for under $100. Over time, it yellowed like my old Milennium Falcon. That’s right—I had Star Wars toys by the truckload. Bring it.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I had some of those die cast action figures. Although I suppose it wasn’t really an action figure if it was die cast.
Ah, memories
I (or rather, the family) had both of these. We also bought, god knows why, the … drum roll … 32K Expansion Box!!! This giant box, big enough to put even today’s largest desktop PCs to shame, increased the TI-99/4A from 16KB to 48KB RAM! And expansion slots and room for up to TWO built-in 5 1/4 inch floppy drives!
I did that with the first programs I ever wrote, which were on the TRS-80. I really wanted one for at home, but ended up with an IBM PCjr instead. Not one of my better decisions.
The PC Jr. was our family’s second computer, after the TI-99.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Listen, Cohen, we’ve already established that I blog from my father’s attic.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
And with a Commodore 64, not a TRS-80, right?
by David S. Cohen on Aug 2, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
It never ceases to amaze me how many bases Davey Lopes was able to steal despite having CP.
Bad joke, I know. Forgive me.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 1:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Joke killer!
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 2:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, it had a congenital disorder. Again, it was a bad joke and I apologize for making it. I lack impulse control.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 2:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Lidge is like that guy in the movie Rookie of the year. Where the kid is still loyal to that guy the Rocket, but he was no rocket anymore and just kept losing games. This is Lidge and the boy is Charlie Manuel.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
Interesting sponsored link at the top
Sponsored LinksBuy a link here
Roy Oswalt’s IQ is 136
Are you smarter than MLB’s top pitcher? Take our IQ test to find out.
www.officialiqquiz.com
A dollar’s a dollar, I guess.
This is wrong, I looked up Roy’s IQ on Baseball Reference and it’s only 129 (though his xIQ is 120, so he’s clearly been somewhat lucky).
by Cormican on Aug 2, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Touché! I lol’d.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 12:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When it comes to the Houston Astros, it has been a consistent struggle in recent years to develop or acquire young, high-upside talent. By trading Roy Oswalt, they took an enormous step in the right direction in landing a proper level of high-impact type talent in return.
Houston hasn’t exactly been known for outstanding trades, but in this particular case score one for the ’Stros.
Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of people seem to have a higher opinion of Happ’s abilities and upside than we do?
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yeah, I think so. I mean, if you just look at his (basic) stats from last year and that he finished second in ROY, he looks like a pretty good player. When you dive deeper and see his peripherals and his age, he’s not so impressive. Still, if he can stay healthy, he gives them great production relative to his cost.
by zfg on Aug 2, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Although it looks like in that article, Piliere is more interested in the upside of the minor league guys than in what Happ brings to the table.
by zfg on Aug 2, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he has a lot of upside as well, because he’s pitched long enough for me to think that part of his “luck” isn’t luck. Pitchers are supposed to get better as they age, and he’s still very young. Of course, the rest of the league could figure him out and he could suck too, I guess.
He’s going to be 28. That’s not old, and he still probably has his best years ahead of him, but I doubt he’s going to make any marked improvements. Happ had his good luck over the course of basically one year, which isn’t unprecedented (see: Cole Hamels 2008).
by zfg on Aug 2, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The discussion on many SABR blogs over the winter was about how lucky Happ was last year, and therefore how very unlikely he was to repeat his ROY runnerup performance.
Im really scared about Howard’s ankle. Rollins’ situation was different because his skill set relied (a lot) more on running than Howard’s, but ankles are wierd.
If he plays on it this week, and goes back to his iron man ways, that ankles going to be hurting until October. If he takes about two weeks off, then it should be 95% the rest of the season. Not sure which is worse, having a somewhat injured Howard the rest of the year, or having a healthy Howard the rest of the year minus two weeks.
*cue WIP chatter about calling up Singleton*
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Well, we don't really know what the problem is, so stating that it "will be hurting" is rather presumptious.
He could be fine this afternoon, or he coud miss a couple weeks. Or anything else, really.
I always assume the worse. That way good news is a bit better. It’s the watching loved ones die of cancer approach.
I know it’s a PA Dutch thing, whom in turn get a lot of their attitudes, etc., from Quakers and that more simple lifestyle. Vanity is, above all else, most reviled. Compliments are not freely given and thinking you are good at anything or having confidence is seen as a sin. Tall poppy syndrome type of stuff. People err on the side of pessimism in order to downplay any true feelings lest you look like you’re bragging, blah, blah, blah.
For another take, assuming the worst is a defense mechanism. Before you can insult Philadelphia, Philadelphia puts itself down. It’s self-defeating, really.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
A Penn sociologist, E. Digby Baltzell, wrote a whole book about this a few decades ago, Puritan Boston and Quaker Philadelphia. You can see pretty much the whole book at that link, and it doesn’t take long to read the Intro, the Preface, and Chapter One, which give a pretty sense of what it’s all about. I didn’t study sociology and I don’t know if his thesis holds water, but it’s thought-provoking at least.
Basically, he first starts with the observation that Boston has produced many more Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and other Great Americans than Philadelphia has. His explanation for this is that it goes all the way back to the sectarian foundings of the two cities, which have influenced their local cultures ever since. Boston was Puritan, so it was hierarchical, authoritarian, with a strong value placed on becoming a leader within your community. Philadelphia was Quaker, so it was consensus-driven and egalitarian – authority was distrusted and people did not consider it to be a desirable thing to be seen or famous. So Boston’s culture promoted achievement, while Philadelphia’s culture didn’t.
It’s an interesting theory, and if it’s right, I wonder how it’s impacted the way we root for our sports team here. But Boston’s sports culture seems fairly similar to ours, so maybe the answer is: not much.
Yo that’s wicked awesome.
I always thought that sociology, history, antropology and archeology should just transform into like a mega-social science, an academia Devastator of sorts -
SOCIALSCIENCACON is here – publish or perish professors!
by j reed on Aug 2, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I never said it was irresponsible to speculate.
I said it was presumptious to state as fact without evidence.
It is indeed responsible to speculate based on available evidence.
Its not really speculation. If youve ever sprained an ankle you know exactly what Im talking about. The way Howard went down it was either broken or sprained.
Oh, and I forgot to mention that once you do it and it doesnt heal right, its a lot easier to do it again. I know, Im just a ray of sunshine today…
by philiafan14364 on Aug 2, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
More evidence that too many people lack a sense of humor more than anything else
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 2, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
just you. Fortunately, E. Digby Baltzell came to the rescue with respect to Ryan Howard’s sprained ankle. Now warming in the bullpen: Elijah Anderson.
I took a course with Elijah Anderson. Completely crazy. He’s at Yale now. Good for him, and any budding urban sociologist who strolls down Locust.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Saw him speak, fascinating dude, but yeah, I’ve read of his study designs, and they are some kinda krazy.
FIrst section of Streetwise required reading for anyone who wishes to understand Philadelphia.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Braves up 1-0 runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out…bottom first.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
3-0 after 1.
Eff you Santana.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
It was Castillo and Santana’s fault.
Castillo couldn’t relay on a clean DP, and Santana couldn’t put Troy Glaus away after being up 0-2, then he gives up a 2-run single to Rick Ankiel.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Well hopefully Hudson has a meltdown…but I’m not confident in that happening.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Your lack of confidence will probably hold out….the Mets look pretty bad so far.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Johan hasn’t been terrible, it’s been like Cookies’ start on Saturday. Some bad luck and an inability to get the third out.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
some interesting stats, by the way
Joe Blanton 2010 – 4.47 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA
Johan Santana 2010 – 4.68 xFIP, 4.57 SIERA
and now for some stats that are just plain amusing
Joe Blanton contract – 2010: $7 million, 2011: $8.5 million, 2012: $8.5 million, 2013: Free Agent
Johan Santana contract – 2010: $21 million, 2011: $22.5 million, 2012: $24 million, 2013: $25.5 million, 2014: $25 million club option w/$5.5 million buyout, 2015: Free Agent, Full No-Trade Clause
Okay, I didn’t like the Howard deal but a deal like that to a pitcher…I’m glad RAJ has a 3 year deal rule for pitchers.
Yeah. At some point during the initial round of Oswalt rumors, I made a derogatory remark about Ruben and how he had better not prove to be dumber than Minaya. I take that back. Nobody’s dumber than Minaya.
Minaya looked like a genius in 2006. How far he has fallen.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
True. Though I am a bit concerned that having made 4 huge deals in his short time as GM, RAJ has developed a big taste for that big deal rush. I think that even if Wade had more leverage, RAJ wasn’t coming home empty handed and would have parted ways with more prospects. But I don’t think RAJ’s so far gone to pull the same shit as Minaya with the Santana deal. That’s like a handful of dilaudid with a ketamine chaser.
Wow, completely cutting into a national broadcast for Centaur boy’s 600th homer. Not cool even if I hate both teams.
Just catching on to the fact that they’ve been doing this ever since he hit 599?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 2, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
ESPN new monday night crew isn’t as good since Hershier and Steve Phillips moved around and the latter got fired for his escapades with an intern at the World Wide Leader. Aaron Boone is a good studio guy just like Singleton but not ready for the big time.
If Howard is going on the DL then possibly call up Singleton only if the Phillies think he is ready, I personally don’t think he is so I think Ransom and Gload could get the job done in the short term if needed.
Simon Gagne #12,
Who would ever seriously suggest calling up Singleton? Not even WIPers are that crazy.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Aug 2, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Calling up Singleton would be like sending your child to college right after 3rd grade.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 2, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
There are at least two things wrong with that suggestion.
1) Andy Tracy is not Ryan Howard, but he is not too shabby.
2) This guy is also tearing it up.
So Ryan Howard is heading back to Philly to be reexamined…that’s not good news.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
minor league roundup
Another good outing by Trevor May for Lakewood: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K. Sebastian Valle went 2 for 4 with a HR (12th of the year) and a double.
For Clearwater, Austin Hyatt went 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.
For Williamsport, our 2010 third-round pick, catcher Cameron Rupp, has so far gone 2 for 2 with a HR and two walks. Might get another PA before the game is over. He now has 4 HR in 114 AB. Seventh-round pick David Buchanan was the starting pitcher and went 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR.
Weren’t all of May’s walks in the first inning?
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Yes. It’s nice to be developing a couple of catching prospects again after cleaning out our system of them.
Speaking of catching prospects, well he’s not a prospect now, but the Indians Santana – that collision, looked brutal.
so that’s 3BB and 25K in the last 13IP. wowzie wow wow
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
A bit torn. He’s young enough (20, turns 21 next month) he can stay put and still not really have “lost” anything. Plus Clearwater is out of anything, while Lakewood is in the playoffs.
He’s at 100+ innings, I’d rather have the remaining innings be playoff ones, even though they will be at a lower level, they will be against better talent in the SAL Either way I think he starts in Clearwater next year.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
another consideration I’ve thought of as well. Not a major consideration mind you, but it can’t hurt the kids to do it that way.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Rat is in for the Braves. Slim chances of a comeback.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn’t learn his lesson from Utley. Against the Reds too….the Reds are a curse.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
laugh it up funny boy, but so will Howard be.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Werth will go from pariah to batting cleanup. Dom Brown will move to 6th.
rollins/polanco/ibanez/werth/ruiz/brown/(gload/tracy/dobbs)/valdez?
this season is soooome kinda injury shit, yo.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 2, 2010 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
White people, no rain and now our buffalo. Oh, and the Tomahawk Chop – the no lube in the fine print of the contract.
And my TGP team lost Youk – jammed fricking thumb. It’s only the year of the pitcher because all the good hitters are out with boo boo thumbs.
For us the Doctor is in….what unknown do the Fish throw at us?
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Sean West, lefty who pitched about half the season as a rookie last year including one game against us. Apparently he had a bad spring training and got sent back to the minors. He did well down there, this is his first big-league start of the season.
Thanks…not sure what to make of that. With Howard’s second opinion coming up tomorrow, I think he will end up on the DL. Strange times to be had over the next 2-3 weeks.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
This entire season has been pretty strange if you ask me. If Ryno goes on the DL, that will mean that the entire Phillies IF has been on it at one point this season. I think the one question some should be asking themselves is “how are we still only 3 games out all things considered?”
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
If he does indeed go on the DL and the Phillies are in contention all the way, and even possibly make it to the postseason, then this may have been Charlie’s best management job ever, even with his infuriating bullpen/bench decisions.
by WanderingMoses on Aug 2, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
If they stay in contention despite all of the injuries, even if they do not make it to the post-season, I agree with your statement— the injuries have stressed the bench, and for large parts of the season been another kick in the shins to an already fragile bullpen. A thought to ponder— with all of the injuries, the Phillies are only three games back— where would they be with a few less injuries?
I count 6 games with the full lineup
game# and date:
1) April 5, Nationals, Won 11-1
2) April 7, Nationals, Won 8-4
4) April 9, Astros, Won 8-0
6) April 11, Astros, Won 2-1
39) May 19, Cubs, Lost 4-1
41) May 21, Red Sox, Won 5-1
They won 5 of the 6, averaged 5.8 runs per game, and gave up only 1.8 per game. Starting pitchers had an ERA of 1.35.
LOL— While I am not arguing that they would be anywhere near that good (and I know that FanGraphs does something like this, but figuring out how to add it all together is beyond me— Stat help Pleez?), I thought that 2 months of J-Roll + 1 month of Utley + 3 weeks of Polanco + 3 weeks of Ruiz + 1 month of Blanton + 2 months of Happ + 1 1/2 months of Lidge + 2 weeks of Romero + 1 week of Victorino + 2 weeks of Moyer = At least 4 wins???
With the season we have had, I am only hoping that the DL stint will be short, that the team can stay in contention, and that Howard, Utley, and Victorino make their returns within a week or so, and that everyone healthy and whole is on the field for the final 6 weeks of the season.
Thought to ponder: The last time the Phillies starting eight was the planned starting eight, was May 21, 2010.
Sunday vs the Mets
Random question but who is sched to start on this coming sunday vs the Mets if all goes well and everyone pitches when they are supposed to, I am going to the game and was curious.
Thanks
thank you, that just got me really excited.
by TheBeefOnSports on Aug 3, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
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