FanPost

Phillie Killers: The Search for Truth in a World of Perception

NOTE: Promoted from FanPosts, really enjoyed this. - WC

Someone brought up the idea for this post in a game thread way back in April, I think, and seeing as I have a lot of time on my hands right now, I figured I would take a look at the numbers. I compiled a list of all perceived Phillie killers that I could think of in order to determine who is a killer and who is a law abiding citizen (lame I know, but I needed a clever antonym for killer, and that was the only one I could think of). I defined a Phillie killer as a player who hits significantly better against the Phils than his career overall numbers. The first set of numbers is AVG/OBP/SLG, all against the Philles. The second set is career overall numbers, in the same order. In some cases, the numbers are based on relatively small sample size (Diaz, Barajas, Lugo). If I've left anyone out, feel free to point it out, as well as give your opinions on anything.

Chipper Jones: .337/.451/.612 -- .306/.405/.536 Verdict: Killer. His numbers are significantly higher against the Phils and are higher than is career averages in all three categories. Plus he has 45 HRs against them, the highest against any team in his career.

Rod Barajas: .348/.378/.768 -- .237/.282/.408 Verdict: Killer. Yeah. It's ridiculous.

Jorge Cantu: .309/.348/.478 -- .275/.321/.448 Verdict: Killer. His numbers against the Phils are "positively different" enough to warrant the killer tag, plus he has 55 hits and 32 RBIs against the Phillies, the highest and second highest against any team in his career, respectively.

Jeff Francoeur: .271/.291/.406 -- .266/.309/.425 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. His average is only .005 above his career overall average, and his OBP and SLG are .018 and .019 lower than his career overall averages, respectively.

Matt Diaz: .326/.357/.597 -- .302/.350/.456 Verdict: Killer. His average is .024 higher than his career overall, and he is slugging .141 higher against the Phils than his career overall.

Brian McCann: .295/.372/.495 -- .290/.360/.493 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. This is tough. Very tough. Even though his numbers against the Phils are nothing to sneeze at (far from it actually), they are pretty much in line with his overall career averages. His case is different from Francouer's in that his numbers are good enough for him to be a Phillie killer, even if they are not very different from his career numbers.  His OBP is higher against the Phillies than any other NL East team, which are the only teams he has significant PAs against. In the light of my defintion of a Phillie killer, McCann should not qualify. To make the decision even tougher, he has 55 RBIs against the Phils, the highest against any team in his career. However, I am standing by my definition of a Phillie killer, and his numbers are just too similar to label him one. 

Martin Prado: .329/.365/.535 -- .312/.361/.465 Verdict: Killer. His OBP against the Phils is pretty much in line with his career overall, but his average and especially his slugging percentage, are significantly higher.

Wes Helms: .250/.317/.420 -- .260/.320/.415 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. His AVG and OBP are lower than his career overall averages, while his SLG is only slightly above.

Julio Lugo: .452/.530/.750 -- .270/.334/.387 Verdict: Killer. I remember that he would not make an out against in a series against the Cardinals last year. Even though it's a pretty small sample size (84 at-bats) that's a huge difference in numbers.

Todd Helton: .377/.476/.658 -- .324/.424/.556 Verdict: Killer. Helton just mashes against the Phils.

Jeff Conine: .287/.363/.487 -- .285/.347/.443 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. The discrepancies between his numbers against the Phillies and his career overalls are nothing to write home about. He did have 70 RBIs against them in his career, the most against any team he faced, which is probably where the Phillie killer perception comes from.

Vladimir Guerrero: .371/.465/.739 -- .320/.384/.564 Verdict: Killer. Thankfully, he left the NL East awhile ago. But man did he hit against the Phillies.

I know there are many more, but it's the night is slipping away and those were a few that I could think of off the top of my head, mostly due to the fact that all but Lugo and Helton played in the NL East at some point. My findings on McCann, and to a lesser extent Conine and Helms, interest me most. Go Phils!

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