Phillie Killers: The Search for Truth in a World of Perception
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 21, 2010 1:34 AM EDT
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PrintNOTE: Promoted from FanPosts, really enjoyed this. - WC
Someone brought up the idea for this post in a game thread way back in April, I think, and seeing as I have a lot of time on my hands right now, I figured I would take a look at the numbers. I compiled a list of all perceived Phillie killers that I could think of in order to determine who is a killer and who is a law abiding citizen (lame I know, but I needed a clever antonym for killer, and that was the only one I could think of). I defined a Phillie killer as a player who hits significantly better against the Phils than his career overall numbers. The first set of numbers is AVG/OBP/SLG, all against the Philles. The second set is career overall numbers, in the same order. In some cases, the numbers are based on relatively small sample size (Diaz, Barajas, Lugo). If I've left anyone out, feel free to point it out, as well as give your opinions on anything.
Chipper Jones: .337/.451/.612 -- .306/.405/.536 Verdict: Killer. His numbers are significantly higher against the Phils and are higher than is career averages in all three categories. Plus he has 45 HRs against them, the highest against any team in his career.
Rod Barajas: .348/.378/.768 -- .237/.282/.408 Verdict: Killer. Yeah. It's ridiculous.
Jorge Cantu: .309/.348/.478 -- .275/.321/.448 Verdict: Killer. His numbers against the Phils are "positively different" enough to warrant the killer tag, plus he has 55 hits and 32 RBIs against the Phillies, the highest and second highest against any team in his career, respectively.
Jeff Francoeur: .271/.291/.406 -- .266/.309/.425 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. His average is only .005 above his career overall average, and his OBP and SLG are .018 and .019 lower than his career overall averages, respectively.
Matt Diaz: .326/.357/.597 -- .302/.350/.456 Verdict: Killer. His average is .024 higher than his career overall, and he is slugging .141 higher against the Phils than his career overall.
Brian McCann: .295/.372/.495 -- .290/.360/.493 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. This is tough. Very tough. Even though his numbers against the Phils are nothing to sneeze at (far from it actually), they are pretty much in line with his overall career averages. His case is different from Francouer's in that his numbers are good enough for him to be a Phillie killer, even if they are not very different from his career numbers. His OBP is higher against the Phillies than any other NL East team, which are the only teams he has significant PAs against. In the light of my defintion of a Phillie killer, McCann should not qualify. To make the decision even tougher, he has 55 RBIs against the Phils, the highest against any team in his career. However, I am standing by my definition of a Phillie killer, and his numbers are just too similar to label him one.
Martin Prado: .329/.365/.535 -- .312/.361/.465 Verdict: Killer. His OBP against the Phils is pretty much in line with his career overall, but his average and especially his slugging percentage, are significantly higher.
Wes Helms: .250/.317/.420 -- .260/.320/.415 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. His AVG and OBP are lower than his career overall averages, while his SLG is only slightly above.
Julio Lugo: .452/.530/.750 -- .270/.334/.387 Verdict: Killer. I remember that he would not make an out against in a series against the Cardinals last year. Even though it's a pretty small sample size (84 at-bats) that's a huge difference in numbers.
Todd Helton: .377/.476/.658 -- .324/.424/.556 Verdict: Killer. Helton just mashes against the Phils.
Jeff Conine: .287/.363/.487 -- .285/.347/.443 Verdict: Law Abiding Citizen. The discrepancies between his numbers against the Phillies and his career overalls are nothing to write home about. He did have 70 RBIs against them in his career, the most against any team he faced, which is probably where the Phillie killer perception comes from.
Vladimir Guerrero: .371/.465/.739 -- .320/.384/.564 Verdict: Killer. Thankfully, he left the NL East awhile ago. But man did he hit against the Phillies.
I know there are many more, but it's the night is slipping away and those were a few that I could think of off the top of my head, mostly due to the fact that all but Lugo and Helton played in the NL East at some point. My findings on McCann, and to a lesser extent Conine and Helms, interest me most. Go Phils!
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Great Idea
McCann was the first name that popped into my head. I was a little surprised to see the results but then again, he is so good overall, it’s understandable.
I’d be interested to see Brad Wilkerson’s numbers myself. I know he used to kill us when he played for the Expos and I always made sure to pick him up for my fantasy team whenever he played us.
Wilkerson
.247/.350/.440 overall
.288/.386/.534 vs. Phillies in 343 career PAs (most against any team)
Brad Wilkerson = dead red Phillie Killer
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 21, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
His was definitely a name that I thought of right away.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
SB Nation
by Chris Haines on Aug 23, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Schneider: .273/.354/.412 – .250/.323/.374. His OPS versus the Phils is .70 higher than his career average. Also, he has more plate appearances versus the Phils (385) than against any other team. I guess playing against us transforms him from a bench scrub to a somewhat useful player.
Josh Willingham: .255/.341/.532 – .265/.367/.475. He has more HR (15) versus the Phillies than against any other team. However, as he has spent all of his career in the NL East, this doesn’t mean much; he has 14 HR versus the Mets and 13 versus the Nationals (but only 4 against Atlanta). Yeah, there’s a .57 difference in slugging, but he’s still not quite as much of a Phillie killer as I thought.
As with Conine, the Phillie killer perception for both of these dudes probably stems from their RBI totals versus the Phils (Schneider has 54, Willingham has 40). Interestingly, Willingham has struck out 65 times versus the Phils, which is the most against any team he’s faced, and yet that does not seem to enter into fans’ perception of him.
by ThinMountainAir on Aug 21, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
LOL— interesting to think that we have a pretty good Phillie killer right on the bench!
by dannijd on Aug 21, 2010 1:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
getting in on this a little late, was out of town for the weekend.
The Conine perception for me starts with the fact that he was a member of that Marlins squad that the Phils just could not beat for a couple years. The ball stuck under the wall debacle was with Conine I believe so it sticks with a lot of fans.
Vlad the Impaler
those numbers are just craaaazy stoopid.
Nice post btw.
Astros – Biggio, Hunter Pence?
Biggio: .283/.377/.459 – .281/.363/.433. Not much here.
Pence: .338/.398/.730 – .287/.337/.483. Wow. However, Pence has only had 83 PA’s against the Phils, so maybe we should take these stats with a grain of salt.
Another guy who came to mind:
Carlos Delgado: .310/.404/.613 – .280/.383/.546. Of course, not only did this guy kill the Phillies, he pretty much killed everybody.
And here we see the opposite:
Albert Pujols: .268/.350/.481 – .332/.426/.625. I have no idea what the Phillies know about Pujols that everyone else apparently doesn’t. But looking at this incredible drop-off, all I can think is: HA! Suck it, Albert!
by ThinMountainAir on Aug 21, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t imagine Pujols has been worse against any other NL team this decade. That’s a pretty remarkable dropoff.
by philsandthrills on Aug 21, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe that difference explains why I am not that impressed by Pujols- I don’t watch a ton of baseball outside of the Phillies, and his tendency toward average play against us causes me to not understand what the fuss is about.
by dannijd on Aug 21, 2010 1:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He’s only, you know, the best right handed hitter of the past 50 years. No biggie.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Honestly. Somehow a year in which he’s close to a triple crown in the NL is a “down year” for him.
by philsandthrills on Aug 21, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
i remember watching Robinson Tejeda fan him on 3 pitches which I thought was humorous. Pujols doesn’t seem to destroy the Phils, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the ‘regressed towards the mean’ at some point.
No doubt. These things are fun but generally pretty meaningless. Pujols’ stats vs. the Phillies in the first three years of his career are aggregated into these numbers, but there is exactly one Phillies player left from those years and it’s not a pitcher, and the Phillies don’t even play in the same ballpark.
“I don’t watch a ton of baseball outside of the Phillies”
You don’t need to. You just need to have been conscious for the last decade or so.
Seriously, this might be the single dumbest thing anyone has ever said on this blog. Congrats.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Strong words. Not sure we’ll ever know if you’re right, though.
by phillyinportland on Aug 21, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s one of the greatest players ever to play to the game.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Pujols, Si!
Not that — just about whether that was the single dumbest thing anyone has ever said. I’ve seen – and I’m sure you have too – some awfully dumb opinions expressed here. :)
by phillyinportland on Aug 21, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure. My comment was perhaps one of the most hyperbolic comments ever posted here though.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I’m not sure it was anything more than accurate. How anyone can even remotely follow baseball and not understand the greatness of Pujols is far, far beyond me.
Considering both mastery of the strike zone and ability to do what he wants when he gets his pitch, the only guy I’ve ever seen at that same level was Bonds. And we know he had “help.”
Okay, I take my comment back. dannijd’s comment was one of the dumbest things anyone has ever said here.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
His comment reminded me of when Jim Rice watched one of Grienke’s starts last year and came away “not impressed.”
by ThinMountainAir on Aug 22, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a textbook example of why “watching the games” is a really, really bad way to judge players, especially those who play for other teams that you don’t see often.
My own experience is another example, but in the opposite direction. I was at the home opener in 2006 when Pujols went 2-3 with two BBs and two bombs, one of which landed approximately three feet from me in the left field bleachers, the other sailed over my head into the second deck. So I’ve always felt that Pujols kills the Phillies.
so clearly, Wade should trade Beltran for Pence.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 21, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
This is addictive . . .
Nick Johnson: .263/.414/.428 – .270/.401/.443. Nothing to see here. Homeboy just walks a whole lot.
Lance Berkman: .292/.414/.521 – .296/.409/.547. Again, he’s just good in general.
by ThinMountainAir on Aug 21, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I was expecting to find JD Drew on this list. The guy absolutely slaughters us.
.366/.442/.563 versus a career .281/.389/.501 line. It should be noted this is through 112 ABs, so it’s a somewhat smallish size.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Aug 21, 2010 7:00 PM EDT reply actions
I was wondering about him,too. I think that qualifies as a stone cold killer.
by phillyinportland on Aug 21, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Plus there is the whole fact that he has been kicking this team in the teeth at just about every opportunity since the Phillies drafted him.
by dannijd on Aug 22, 2010 12:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m a bit surprised to see that Scott Rolen hasn’t killed us worse than I’d thought—.901 career OPS vs. Phils compared to .869 against all opponents.
Mike Lowell jumped out at me as somebody forgotten…
also Brian Schneider (now a Phillie if for no other reason than to stop the abuse he gives us.
Jose Reyes…I’ll go check this in a second.
Reyes: 0.299/0.354/0.491 vs Phils Career: 0.287/0.336/0.434 KILLER
Lowell: 0.273/0.348/0.523 vs Phls Career: 0.279/0.342/0.465 Law abiding Citizen, but the difference in slugging is a bit nuts.
Schneider: 0.273/0.354/0.412 vs Phils Career: 0.250/0.323/0.373 KILLER
I’m assuming that you didn’t see my comment regarding Schneider above. It’s kinda funny that two Phillies fans independently decided to look up Brian Schneider’s stats because of some perception that he has killed the Phillies in the past. I mean, the guy is basically just an anonymous bench scrub.
by ThinMountainAir on Aug 22, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, I knew there was a reason I hated Matt Diaz. It seemed that any time the Braves did something bad to the Phillies, Diaz was in the middle of it. Thanks for validating the impression.
i think some of it comes
because the phillies have been lefthanded pitcher dominate and he rakes against leftys but not so much against righties
by Delaware Boiler on Aug 27, 2010 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Good work man. You should do a pitchers list. Now who should we start with? cough*Tim Redding* cough
All you will think about as your vision closes to a black pinpoint will be Brad Lidge surfing a non-deceptive fastball into somebody who is prepared to club it out into the seats.
I endorse this.
I also remember Tomo Ohka vexing the Phillies earlier in the decade.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 23, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Mark Redman
since I don’t know what the triple slashes in the above examples are…(and BB-Ref doesn’t do BABIP for him)
Career: .281 / .339 / .440 BABIP 0.306
vs Phils: .240 / .305 / .439 BABIP 0.268
So essentially, the Phils couldn’t get on base or hit against him, but when they did it was for XBH.
Ryne Sandberg
Not drastically different, but it still really hurts
Career: .285/.344/.452
.vs. Phils: .297/.357/.482
33 HR against the Phils, second only to his 35 against the Cardinals
121RBIs, second only to the Cards and Mets (122).
Miguel Olivo anyone?
You guys forgot about Miguel Olivo: .328/.367/.603 vs. Phils (in 131 AB) and .246/.283/.428 in his career.
Not to mention his 8 career HR’s against the Phils are tied (w/ Cleveland) for his most homers against any team. Oh, and he has 54 more AB’s against Cleveland… The man is like Jeffrey Dahmer against the Phillies.
by FooFighter1124 on Aug 29, 2010 11:29 PM EDT reply actions
my god...
how did we forget Ryan Spilborghs?
Before the makeup game (in which he’s 1 for 1), he was hitting a career .438/.479/.703 in 64 at-bats vs. the Phils. Career, he’s a bit under .800 OPS.
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