When Rivals Are Perfectly In Sync: The Phillies and Braves Over the Last Two Weeks

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 11:00 AM EDT

Since Wednesday August 11, the Phillies and Braves have been in sync. And when I write "in sync," I am talking perfectly in sync, without one drop of difference. The Phillies win 2 in a row, the Braves win 2 in a row. The Phillies win 4 in a row, the Braves win 4 in a row. The Braves lose 2, the Phillies lose 2.

If you've been frustrated that the Phillies have, for the most part, been playing good baseball but the standings haven't budged, here's why:

Phillies				Braves
Date	Result	Score	Opponent	Date	Result	Score	Opponent
Aug 11	Win	2-0	LA	Aug 11	Win	8-2 (10)	HOU
Aug 12	Win	10-9	LA	Aug 13	Win	1-0	LA
Aug 13	Loss	1-0	NY	Aug 14	Loss	2-1	LA
Aug 14	Win	4-0	NY	Aug 15	Win	13-1	LA
Aug 15	Win	3-1	NY	Aug 16	Win	4-3	LA
Aug 17	Win	9-3	SF	Aug 17	Win	10-2	WAS
Aug 18	Win	8-2	SF	Aug 18	Win	3-2	WAS
Aug 19	Loss	5-2	SF	Aug 19	Loss	6-2	WAS
Aug 20	Win	1-0	WAS	Aug 20	Win	5-3	CHI
Aug 21	Loss	8-1	WAS	Aug 21	Loss	5-4	CHI
Aug 22	Win	6-0	WAS	Aug 22	Win	16-5	CHI
Aug 23	Loss	3-2	HOU	Aug 23	Loss	5-4	COL
Aug 24	Loss	4-2 (16)	HOU	Aug 24	Loss	5-2	COL

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I asked this exact question in the beginning of the game thread last night, it felt like longer even but still…

by SportingFanaticism on Aug 25, 2010 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

... and relieved that they don't lose ground when they lose...

That’s pretty cool.

by schmenkman on Aug 25, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions

Anyone have the statistical chops to figure out the probability of two teams with the Braves and Phillies’ win percentages having the same pattern of wins and losses over two weeks?

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

Might be doing this wrong, but if you assume the chances of victory are a straight coin flip (50%), then there’s a 25% chance the two teams win (or lose) on the same day. For 13 days in a row, it’s .25^13, or 1.49×10^-8th. That’s 1.5 millionth of a percent.

For two weeks (14 days), I get 3.725×10^9, or 3.725 ten-millionths of a percent.

This doesn’t take into account how good the actual teams are, mind, so I’m sure the real-world probabilities vary from that. Still, I think this safely falls into the realm of “really, really unlikely.”

(And if I did that wrong, feel free to correct me. I’m sure there are people here who are better at this kind of thing than I am).

by Aphilfan on Aug 25, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

And of course I actually did do that wrong

since there’s a 50% chance you get the same result, not 25%. So ignore the post above.

.5^13 = 1.22×10^-4 (1.22 hundredths of a percent)
.5^14 = 6.10×10^-5 (6.1 thousandths of a percent)

So, yeah, still very unlikely.

by Aphilfan on Aug 25, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Braves winning pct: .579
Phillies winning pct: .560

Probability of both teams winning at the same time: 32.424%
Probability of both teams losing at the same time: 18.524%
Probability of same result: 50.948%

Same result over 13 days: 1.558 hundredths of a percent
Same result over 14 days: 7.939 thousandths of a percent

(Again, feel free to check the work.)

by Aphilfan on Aug 25, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

But of course, there are 162 games in a season. This could happen at any point in the season, to any two teams, in any given season.

A 13 day stretch like this could begin on any of the first 149 games of the season. So multiply your 1.558 hundredths of a percent by 149, and suddenly you’re around a 2 percent chance of this exact pair of teams doing this in 2010. For 14 games, it would be just under 1 percent.

by Rujasu on Aug 25, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yikes, 11th grade math all coming back to me…

I suppose this means that the odds of this happening to any two teams at any point in a given season are actually pretty decent.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Gah

Figured I was forgetting something. I haven’t had to figure this kind of thing out since…college I guess. Thanks for picking up the end.

by Aphilfan on Aug 25, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

That doesn’t quite work out the way you think. You would have to account for the fact that whenever there is a result that is not the same (which has a certain probability, right?), the number of possible matching 13-day stretches doesn’t go down by one, it goes down by 13 (or slightly less at the very beginning or end of the season).

Also, it is not possible for the teams to have the same result when they play each other.

by Cthepitch on Aug 25, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Your second point is correct. The first one doesn’t make sense.

I wouldn’t begin to know how to calculate the exact percentage, there are too many factors to consider. But it’s a lot higher than one or two hundreths of a percent, and I’d estimate it’s around 1%.

by Rujasu on Aug 25, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty amazing

I knew it felt like it was happening every night but this confirms my suspicions. Thanks.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Aug 25, 2010 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

It’s the YAWN EFFECT….just can’t help but yawn when you see someone else do it.

by j reed on Aug 25, 2010 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

Just proves to be an excellent season as a fan of the game, it also really starts to amp up the importance of the series when they play again

by The Fish on Aug 25, 2010 2:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

seems reminscent of the second half of last year when the Braves were doing very well, but losing ground as the Phils were playing even better.

Phils win tonight, then lose tomorrow for the 1-3 record against the ‘stros in this series. That’s my call. I hope it’s a split and I’m wrong.

by Bilzo on Aug 25, 2010 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

Braves are winning 7-0

so the Phillies are due for a win tonight.

Great piece, btw. I was going to do something similar, but now i don’t have to!

"Based on stereotypes that are totally untrue and I do not agree with, you would maybe-not be a very good driver..."

"Oh man am I a woman?!"

by Scott Coleman on Aug 25, 2010 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

Of course the Braves are up 10-1. This is starting to get extremely irritating.

by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 25, 2010 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

Well, they weren’t going to get swept. The Phils won’t either, although it is absolutely necessary to split now. Kendrick vs. Rodriguez is not a good must-win matchup, but whatevs.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 25, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions