Joe Blanton: #2 Starter Material?

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 2:36 PM EDT

We take a break from our two-minute hate session over last night's umpiring clown-show to discuss a topic that should restore some cheer to the hearts of all Phillies fans: Joe Blanton.

On June 12, in his eighth start of the season following rehab for a strained oblique muscle, Blanton gave up 13 hits and 9 runs (all earned) in an embarrassing pasting at the hands of the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park. His ERA following that game stood at 7.28, and while that figure was somewhat inflated (as shown by his high BABIP-against and HR/FB rate), even his underlying peripheral stats were troubling. Through 47 innings pitched, he had collected only 26 strikeouts. This was especially discouraging because the Phillies had just extended Blanton for three years at $8 million/year - a deal that seemed like a good bargain based on his performance in 2009, when he had achieved a career-high K/9 rate of 7.5. Could his poor performance in 2010 be dismissed as a fluke? Was it just the result of the lingering effects of his injury? Or was it his strong performance in 2009 that was the fluke?

It's still too early to draw a conclusion on this, but Blanton's making a heckuva play to convince us that his success in 2009 was the real deal. Check out his monthly splits for the last two months.

Month	IP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	ERA	xFIP	NL Rank (xFIP)
July	37.2	8.36	2.39	.365	5.26	3.61	16th of 57 qualifiers
August	26.0	7.96	1.38	.349	3.12	3.37	12th of 59 qualifiers
Total	63.2	8.20	1.98	.360	4.38	~3.50	[not sure, sorry]

This has brought his season totals roughly into line with what he did in 2009.

Season	IP	K/9	BB/9	BABIP	ERA	xFIP	NL Rank (xFIP)
2010	132.0	6.48	2.05	.336	5.32	4.24	30th of 51 qualifiers
2009	195.1	7.51	2.72	.302	4.05	4.07	22nd of 45 qualifiers

So basically, Blanton is the same pitcher this year that he was last year - if you don't cut him any slack at all for having an adjustment period following his injury. He is a solid mid-rotation starter, who is a clear bargain at $8 million per year.

If you do give Blanton a mulligan for his presumable injury recovery period, then guess what - as of right now, Joe Blanton is pitching like a #2 starter. Even in this season of leaguewide depressed offenses, a 3.50 xFIP is really good. It's almost as good as what Roy Oswalt has done this season, and Oswalt's having a good year even by his own high personal standards. Yes, Blanton's struggled in the first inning, but so what? The first inning doesn't count more than any other inning, and weird stats like that are inherently fluky anyway. It's the overall numbers that matter.

So the moral to the story is that if you ever hear anyone disparage Blanton's performance this season, that's a good sign that they are ignoramuses whom you should ignore. He is not a weak link in the Phillies' rotation. He is one of the team's strengths. And he's a big reason why their rotation, from spots 1-4, is probably the best in the National League in 2010.

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You go, Joe

That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout! Suck it, haters.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 25, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

For the record, I don’t know if Blanton will be able to keep up what he’s been doing lately. Although he’s been a solid pitcher for many years, historically he hasn’t been on the level of a 2. But at the same time, he’s 29 years old and at his peak. So even if we shouldn’t count on him to pitch like a 2 in future seasons, it isn’t unreasonable to hope he can do it for the rest of 2010.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

Still he’s not the garbage pitcher some would suggest he is that should have been dumped for a bag of balls in the offseason in lieu of trading Cliff Lee.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 25, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Great piece TP. What excites me about this is the possibility of a healthy rotation in 2011 featuring Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, Blanton, and Kendrick. That’s pretty much 3 #1 starters, a #2 starter (if what you write about here continues), and a solid 4/5 starter. As you said at the end, that’s the best rotation in the NL, if not baseball.

Add on a healthy, although certainly aging, lineup, and this team has another year or two to succeed at this level.

Of course, health is the big issue!

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, and to be clear, I write the above as someone who advocated dumping him for a bag of balls in the offseason in lieu of trading Cliff Lee and as someone who was critical of signing him to a 3 year contract for $24M. Hey, if he works out, I’m happy to eat my words!

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks David! I think Blanton’s probably more like a 3, but yeah, it would be awesome if he can keep pitching like he’s been pitching lately. I, for one, was pretty skeptical about the trade that we originally made to acquire him, giving up Cardenas and Outman. But it sure seems to have paid off, and I’m happy to eat my words too!

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

In semi-related news, in researching this post I noticed that one of the few NL pitchers who has been pitching better than Blanton over the past two months has been Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, who is our scheduled opponent for tomorrow afternoon’s game. 3.25 xFIP in July (7th in league), 2.38 xFIP in August (3rd in league).

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

Great Piece!

When people see the dynamic Roy duo and Cole pitch, they come to be a little jaded when it comes to the rest of the rotation. At $8 mill, we can’t really ask for much more than Blanton, and I look forward to seeing how he progresses through this season and the next. The first inning troubles are a little concerning though…any theories on that?

"We definitley can't lose anymore games."
-Charlie Manuel

by Dugbam on Aug 25, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions

Bad luck?
Not enough time warming up?
Adjusting his approach from the 2nd inning on, based on first inning results?

by Cormican on Aug 25, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a clue. I’m curious as well. Could it just be a coincidence?

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Here’s how good the rotation has been in August. Of 59 qualifiers, Cole Hamels ranks 2nd in the league in xFIP (2.36), Roy Halladay ranks 4th (2.66), Roy Oswalt ranks 10th (3.24), and Blanton ranks 12th (3.24). SSS yada yada.

Kyle Kendrick is 42nd (4.60), which isn’t terrible either.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

42nd in the NL only, I assume.

by Cormican on Aug 25, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, all those rankings are NL. Thanks for the catch.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

And this is why they’re 14-7 this month. It’s not thanks to the anemic offense (and certainly not because we’ve had adequate fill-ins for Utley, Victorino, and Howard).

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow… Surprising to see Hamels is having a statistically better August than Halladay.

by dannijd on Aug 25, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Great article T.P.

FWIW, Atlanta hung up a 7 spot on Colorado through 2 innings and Cincy scored 4 vs San Fran in the first.

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Aug 25, 2010 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks.

Ugh at the bad news. Then again, Jurrjens is no great shakes, and you never know what might happen in Coors.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

10-1 Atlanta in 3 innings…ugghhh. How did they avoid ubaldo jimenez again?

by PhilsForever on Aug 25, 2010 4:12 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know, but even Ubaldo is not immune to a bad game (I seem to remember the Phillies making him look rather silly).

by dannijd on Aug 25, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose you think Roy Halladay can defeat the Astros? Not likely.

I fed a fish to a pelican and Frisco bay and he tried to eat my cell phone he ran away

by TradeAndruw on Aug 25, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

The Astros? Yes. The Astros and Umpires? 50/50.

by Cormican on Aug 25, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I did… Apparently not this time… Gotta have offense for that.

by dannijd on Aug 26, 2010 6:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

So I’ll be happy to see a win tonight.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 25, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Down to 10-5, bottom 5.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Article, but one Question

I have been wondering this for a while, and this seems like the best place to ask. Is there some demarcation that separates what is considered a number one starter from a number 2, 3, etc? I look at the Phillies top three (Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, and see three number one starters)- am I right in this?

by dannijd on Aug 25, 2010 4:13 PM EDT reply actions

Yes. It’s subjective shorthand.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Rough guesstimate would be something like low-mid 3’s ERA for #2, mid to high 3’s for #3

by Nikk.m on Aug 25, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

It also depends on how the rest of the league is doing. The standards for pitchers are much higher this year than they were in, say, 2006, since offense is down this season.

by taco pal on Aug 25, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Really depends on the kind of team you have.

Phillies ca. 2000
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starter about a 55% chance of winning
starter about a 50% chance of winning
starter about a 40% chance of winning
starter who is this schmoe?
starter you will be talking with your buddy about how at Comiskey they had nickel beer night once and wouldn’t it be cool if they did that at the Vet and OMG we could burn all of our disco LPs.

Phillies ca. 2010
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