The Upside-down Batting Order
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 25, 2010 9:25 PM EDT
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PrintI am going to lay out some hitting stats for four of the Fightins:
Player A: 0on/0out: .183; bases empty: .215; RISP: .340; RISP/2out: .414
Player B: 0on/0out: .201; bases empty: .230; RISP: .308; bases loaded: .571
Player C: 0on/0out: .339; bases empty: .332; RISP: .159; RISP/2outs: .107
Player D: 0on/0out: .368; bases empty: .302; RISP: .274; RISP/2outs: .371
Now, with those players, You would think that Players A and B would NEVER be at the top of the line-up card, right? They are clearly middle of the lineup run producers, right? And Player C and to a lesser extent, D, would be ideal leadoff hitters, and not so much counted on to drive in runs, right?
Well, clearly, you are NOT Charles Fuqua Manuel. Player A is Rollins, Player B is Victorino, C is Werth and D is Plonaco. You see, our leadoff types are our WORST bases empty hitters, and I say this as I just watched Rollins lead off an inning by popping up, and Victorino following with a weak grounder. And moments ago, Werth grounded out weakly with that runner on third and 2 out.
Good managers/coaches put their players - as Andy Reid is fond of repeating ad nauseum - in a position to succeed. Uncle Charley puts HIS players in a position where they RARELY succeed.
See you next year!
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i could not agree more. shuffle those bastards up. i think manuel is waiting for confidence to come back. in the meantime he braves are handing the phils the chance to take over and they are choking. losing 3 straight to the astros is not gonna get you 4 straight nl east titles or 3 straight nl titles. time to put the balls back in the jock.
ummm...
They lost four straight to the astros last year and where did they end up? This lineup has worked for years and has worked this year. Changing the lineup will not matter. The hitters need to just get their groove back.
by PhilsForever on Aug 26, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Definition of insanity?
Look it up – doing the same thing over and over again getting the same result, and expecting a different result. Charlie isn’t Managing right now, he’s just a hopin’… and that gets managers fired.
Are you reading, Charlie? I know that you have read TGP in the past – I hope you are now! Be a Manager, not a hoper.
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 26, 2010 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions
2007?
Yeah, and in 2007 they blew an Astros Series in early September, and that was the reason they missed the playoffs. THESE GAMES COUNT. This is NO time to let guys “find their swing.”
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 26, 2010 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that it depends on the game— putting the best hitters in the top of the lineup insures that they get a shot every time the lineup gets turned over. Over the course of the season, maximizing the lineup’s potential may unlock several more runs just by placing the players most likely to score them in a position to hit more often. That being said, I do not think that lineup shuffle will work at this point. While the statistical numbers are important, and while it may over the course of the season work out better to bat Werth up in the lineup considering his struggles with runners on, I don’t know that changing it changes anything, particularly considering the small size of some of the sample sizes above. As a leadoff hitter, Rollins sees significantly more at bats with none on and none out than hitters later in the order, if for no other reason than the automatic at bat at the beginning of the game.
Sample sizes
No, those are NOT small sample sizes, for baseball. 30 or 40 ABs in a given situation is a TREND, not an Aberration. A good coach puts players in the roles they have succeeded in, and expands from there. Rollins and Victorino do better with ducks on the pond, Werth chokes at the sight of ducks. You can make all the excuses for Charlie that you want, but Facts Are Facts. Put Werth at the top – you know, the guy who sees more pitches than any other Phillie? – and it makes the whole lineup better. Slide Utley and Howard down until they ACTUALLY HIT THE GODDAM BALL! and put Vic and Jimmy where they hit best – with men on base.
We are IN a Pennant Race! This is NOT May! Win THIS game! Screw the Egos! Piss ’em Off, if you have to! Remember 1980??? Dallas Green pissed ALL of them off! And won it all… Go read about it, kids.
The RIGHT lineup for the next three games?
1. Werth.
2. Polanco.
3. Victorino.
4. Rollins.
5. Ibanez.
6. Howard.
7. Utley.
8. Chooch.
And if that pisses U and H off? Screw ‘em. Maybe that’s what they need to get them to actually make contact in a serious way when it matters. I couldn’t care less about their feelings… or RAJ’s screwup in letting them have short rehab stints. Their stats since they came back merit a trip to the bottom of the line-up.
And don’t come back to me with some weak “sample size” crap.
what
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Aug 26, 2010 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dude… you’re completely wrong.
Completely.
30 ABs is nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Also, RISP stats are useless because over any significant length of time, they regress to their normal stats. That’s right, there is absolutely no such thing as a hitter who is better with runners on, any more than there is a penny that is good at coming up heads with people watching the coin flip. This has been studied by people who know far more about statistics than you or I would ever want to know.
The only thing you have any valid point about — Werth would probably make a good leadoff man. But there’s also an argument that he should hit lower because he can drive in runs that way. He’s pretty much good wherever you put him in the lineup.
For the record, Hardball Times did an analysis of the Phils’ lineup before the season started. I recall them suggesting that Utley should lead off (!) followed by Werth, Polanco, and Howard, with the pitcher hitting 8 and Chooch 9. This was before Chooch showed signs (over 300 AB, not freaking 30) this year of being a strong OBA guy, so that would change things a lot.
In any case though, Utley and Howard should always bat in the top 4. Utley is the best hitter on the team regardless of what you may think of his ego (WTF?) and Howard has been a consistent power hitter for years now. THAT is sample size, not the equivalent of six or seven games.
FuquaManuel
Get a cardboard box, and pack your things. You’re out of here! Rujasu, you can have his office.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
They can’t have my swingline stapler…
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 27, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Welcome to the blog. Excellent argument! I remember the Hardball Times article. Other than their view of Ruiz, I think they were pretty spot on. I still can not quite figure out where Ruiz belongs in the lineup— for pure hitting, he belongs up, but his slowness around the basepaths pushes him down.
And as for Ruiz, they were right at the time… while facts have changed now, and I do not know that I would have put him down farther given his ability to draw walks from the 8 hole, it is understandable.
Thanks for the welcoming guys. I’ve actually been around here for almost a month, though I’ve only made a couple of posts up to this point.
There’s actually a decent argument for having faster guys hit lower in the order. After all, if your leadoff hitter is followed by the best power hitters on the team, why does he need speed? Sure, you can score from first on a double. But it’s better to have that speed down in 5/6/7/8 when the guy behind you is more likely to be a singles hitter (or a pitcher.) In that case, a stolen base or extra running speed on a batted ball helps you out a bit more, and it’s less likely to be wasted by a home run. Besides, Carlos Ruiz isn’t Johnny Estrada here — he’s almost an average runner. His speed isn’t a huge liability if Utley or Howard can put one in the seats.
OTOH, Ruiz as #9 after the pitcher makes sense too, because it still puts him in front of good hitters, if you’re looking at Utley and Werth at the top. It takes advantage of his high OBA while not giving too many plate appearances to a guy who doesn’t hit for power at all — potentially you give an extra at-bat near the end of the game to Utley or Werth, which they wouldn’t get batting in the middle, and they have a chance to change the game with one swing. Or get on base where Polanco could knock them in with a single or double.
go back
Please go back and look at Jimmy’s stats forthe last three years, with bases empty or leading off an inning. Then tell me he is a leadoff hitter.
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 26, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Here’s a high-level mathematical exercise for you, SJD. When you have a sample of 30 AB, what’s the difference between a .233 batting average and a .300 batting average? Feel free to use a calculator.
by taco pal on Aug 27, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Really?
See you next year!
We’re in the middle of an exciting pennant race and this is your attitude? Our starting pitching is incredible. En fuego. And even with the last three games, we still have to be considered one of the hottest teams in baseball.
See you next year??
Well, you can count on me — seeing you — in the parking lot
Really.
Really? You think a team scoring less than 2 runs a game is going anywhere? In a pennant race or after? That’s pure Genius…
I have an idea – let’s do Nothing! That will get it done, for sure… and if that’s what Charlie does, it will indeed be “See you next year.”
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 26, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Are you new to Phillies phandom?
This is what Charlie does. He’s loyal to his players and stubborn and doesn’t like to tinker with roles very much. But the payoff is that the players love him and play hard for him.
We were all saying the same thing last year when Manuel stuck with Lidge through hell and high water, and that worked out OK in the end.
whaddayaknow...
That Werth guy just got the first hit for the Phils today, and it was with 0 on/0 out.
You are one heck of a troll.
I hope.
by philsandthrills on Aug 26, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Because he can really control what the scrubs in front of him do. Have you see how Howard and Utley have been doing lately?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
That’s why I slid those two down – maybe it will wake them up.
If any of you ever managed, which you clearly never have, you put the guys who get on base at the top of the order, and the guys who drive in runs in the middle.
THIS season, and specifically since May 19th, Jayboy is NOT a guy who drives in runs, but he is still a guy who gets on base better than any other Phil. Top of the order. Instead of 1-for-40-something w/RISP. Maybe you should WATCH the games, Turtle – he DOES swing differently with men on base – or haven’t you noticed the way he has been pulling off the ball all summer? You have to watch the games on TV – not on Gameday…
by SJDinAudubon on Aug 26, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
also
Forgive me if I kind of trust the acumen of the manager of a team that’s won two straight pennants and a Championship over, well, you.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Do you honestly think Jayson Werth hits better with no one on than with runners on? Why if the world would that make any fucking difference? How can you argue against small sample size either, since that is one of the principals of statistics. So he is not hitting the ball as well with RISP? Do you think that’s directly related to the fact that there are RISP? He doesn’t approach the ball differently, he doesn’t swing differently, he isn’t scared to hit with people watching. It honestly makes as much of a difference as what uniforms they are wearing that day. Do you actually think that today, when he had the first hit of the game, that he would not have gotten a hit if Howard had hit a double in front of him? Did you know that Jayson is only batting .114 in the 8th inning?!?!?!?!?! On the other hand, he is batting .419 in the 3rd inning and .397 in the seventh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So don’t you think we should move the order around so as to ensure that Jayson bats in the 3rd and the 7th inning, but not the 8th?? Because I’m sure what inning it is actually has a DIRECT effect on how he is hitting. But if you actually think it does, take a look at these numbers: .071/.204/.190 in the 1st inning with 54 PAs, .319/.393/.447 in the 6th with 56 PAs. Still want him leading off?
by FearTheTurtIe on Aug 26, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
So don’t you think we should move the order around so as to ensure that Jayson bats in the 3rd and the 7th inning, but not the 8th??
screwed that up...
So don’t you think we should move the order around so as to ensure that Jayson bats in the 3rd and the 7th inning, but not the 8th??
So why don’t they just bench him and PH him in the 3rd inning each game for whoever comes up? :)
by the way SJD
It’s pretty neat how you disappear for months at a time, when the team’s playing well, and then show up to bitch and moan and berate other established members of the community when the team’s fortunes take a downturn. You certainly have established a solid M.O.
There’s a word for that, can someone help me think of it?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I’m a casual fan and I have to agree with him. Look at what Howard and Utley been doing. This goes back to VS Yankess, don’t you think that by putting Howard lower in the lineup during the slump, he would’ve seen a different look and maybe something happens?
In sports, it’s about giving it all you got and knowing you left everything on the table. Both with the players and the coaches. Sometimes this loyalty thing works out really well, and other times, it doesn’t.
It’s worked out well with Lidge(18 saves in 23 attempts thus far.), but will it work out for our offense and how much time do we have to wait to see the results? Victorino and Polanco and Werth and Ibanez have been really hot lately, why not get some of these guys at the top of the order and generate runs? What’d be so wrong about that?
The fact that certain players have performed a certain way over the last few weeks doesn’t do much to tell you what they’re going to do over the next few weeks. Sure, the guys you mention have been hot lately, but are you going to judge them on what they’ve done over the last three weeks or the last three years?
We know (well, we’re reasonably sure given the information that we have) that Howard and Utley are going to hit well, because they’re more talented and have better track records than the other guys. Thus, they’re more likely to produce over the next few weeks than the other players in the lineup. Victorino and Ibanez have been hot, but the key words are “have been.” Hot streaks end, and so do slumps.
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