Ryan Howard's Year Broken Down -- Into 52 Game Stretches

by David S. Cohen on Aug 3, 2010 1:41 PM EDT

As with most Phillies fans, today, I've got Ryan Howard on the brain. The thought of Ross Gload or Cody Ransom getting significant time at first base in Howard's place is scary. Get well, big man.

But maybe some of you out there are under the impression that replacing Howard this year is different. The drop-off would still be huge from Howard to Gload/Ransom, but not as huge as in years past. After all, Howard has an .884 OPS this year, which is pretty much equal to his career-worst .881 OPS of 2008. But even in 2008, Howard was stilling hitting the ball hard, as he had an ISO of .292, and he was getting on base with a walk-rate of 11.6%. This year, in contrast, Howard has an ISO of .236 and a paltry walk-rate of 7.5%. Not surprisingly, those are both career lows for Howard. And, without much power, he's been labeled nothing more than a singles hitter.

However, as we all cross our fingers on the results of Howard's ankle examination, Howard's 2010 is not yet over. He has more to do on the field, and if he performs more like his second 52 games than his first 52 games, the year-end production we'll get from Howard should be quite familiar.

What's so special about 52 games? Well, Howard has played in 104 games this year, so looking at his season in two 52 game chunks cuts it right in half. Also, coincidentally, after his 52nd game, Howard hit a nadir in his OPS for the year -- at .786 (not counting his early-season small sample size OPS).

So how have the two Howards compared?

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BB%	K%	BABIP
First 52	0.280	0.336	0.450	0.786	0.170	7.4%	25.6%	0.338
Second 52	0.306	0.377	0.612	0.989	0.306	7.6%	27.0%	0.348

In some ways, the Ryan Howard of the second 52 games is very similar to the Ryan Howard of the first 52. They have roughly the same career-low walk and strikeout rates and their batting average on balls in play are not meaningfully different.

However, the big difference between the two Howards is that the second-52 Howard is clobbering the ball. Over the last 52 games, Howard has posted an isolated power percentage among his career best years of 2006 (.346) and 2007 (.316). His OPS is better than it has been in all-but his MVP year of 2006 (1.084). Each of his extra-base hit types are up - from 7 doubles to 10, from 1 triple to 4, and from 9 home runs to 14.

The mediocre overall stats Howard has for the year mask this marked improvement over the past 52 games. If Howard returns from his injury quickly, another 52 games like these most recent 52 will put him on track for another productive season, one in which he is decidedly not a singles hitter.

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Comments

Pitches per PA are also up...

While his walk rate hasn’t gone up, the number of pitches per PA has gone from 3.71 to 3.95. Still below his career average through 2009, which was 4.06.

by schmenkman on Aug 3, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

Cool. Where do you get pitcher per PA broken down this way? The Day by Day Database that I use doesn’t have that info.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 3, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I keep an Excel database where I load each game’s boxscore to create game logs (<3 minutes per day). I use ESPN’s box scores, which include # of pitches.

by schmenkman on Aug 3, 2010 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

This is very encouraging. I suppose that a decreased walk rate isn’t such a bad thing provided that there’s a roughly equivalent tradeoff in terms of batting average (which, in theory, there might be, if BB are being sacrificed in order to decrease K – fewer Ks means more BIPs, which, with a constant BABIP, should mean an increase in BA).

The worrisome thing about Howard’s decrease in Ks was that he seemed to be sacrificing not only BB but also HR. But if it turns out that he’s able to keep his HR at his old levels, then I will be mollified.

by taco pal on Aug 3, 2010 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

His fangraphs page is fascinating. I figure I’ll get into this more at some other point, but his swing rates in and out of the strikezone are all out of whack this year from his career averages.

by David S. Cohen on Aug 3, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I really like articles like this that help me relax.

by Whack8888 on Aug 3, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions

I might have guessed this from your handle.

by phatj on Aug 3, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

You could guess a lot of things from his handle.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Aug 3, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

This was my…
initial reaction to Howard on the DL15.

"We definitley can't lose anymore games."
-Charlie Manuel

by Dugbam on Aug 3, 2010 8:17 PM EDT reply actions

Not to quibble, because the article “overall” was excellent, but I question the use of the term “medicocre overall stats” to describe Howard’s season so far. To me, mediocre is average or even below average. Howard’s numbers are hardly that: as of today his .292 batting average is 17th in the NL, 23 HRs is 7th, 81 RBIs is 1st, and his .884 OPS is “only” 14th, mainly because his OBP is low. Oh, and his hits and at-bats are both top ten. Mediocre by the standards Howard has put up in the past, yes, but not compared to the National League.

by phillyinportland on Aug 4, 2010 3:26 AM EDT reply actions