Batting Leadoff . . . Chooch?
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 2:51 PM EDT
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PrintOK, the title of this post is going to eliminate a lot of the suspense here, but let's ignore that and, spurred by the conversation in this morning's links thread, consider the following two players' stats:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | nBB% | K% | |
| A | 442 | 0.252 | 0.319 | 0.406 | 0.725 | 0.154 | 8.6% | 9.3% |
| B | 374 | 0.308 | 0.404 | 0.484 | 0.888 | 0.176 | 11.0% | 12.3% |
The rate stats here are your usual ones, except that nBB% is the percentage of walks the hitter gets that are non-intentional.
Comparing the two hitters, is there any argument for putting Player A at the top of the lineup over Player B? Player A hits for a worse average, gets on base at a significantly lower clip, hits for less power, and walks less. The only thing Player A does better than Player B is strike out less, but Player B obviously makes up for that by getting on base much more frequently.
Imagine, a .404 OBP sitting at the top of the Phillies lineup, getting on base 40% of the time in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth. Sounds pretty good? So, where can we find Player B?
Well, as the title suggests, Player B is Carlos Ruiz, showing his stats from August 15 of last year until today. Since August 15, which is almost a calendar year ago, Ruiz has been sizzling hot. If he had this line for this MLB season, rather than the pieced-together calendar year I'm using here, his .888 OPS would put him right between Prince Fielder (.892) and Ryan Howard (.884).
Player A is the Phillies' current leadoff hitter, Jimmy Rollins. His .319 OBP since August 15 would put him almost at the bottom of leadoff hitters this year who have 200 plate appearances. In contrast, Chooch's .404 OBP would put him at the top . . . by a very healthy margin. Even taking away Chooch's 10 intentional walks, which he presumably gets hitting toward or at the bottom of the Phillies' lineup, his OBP since August 15 last year is .387, which would still put him at the top for leadoff hitters this year (albeit only by 1 point over Rafael Furcal).
Of course, the stats I highlighted above mask one big difference between Ruiz and Rollins -- speed. Ruiz has stolen 0 bases in the past year, getting caught only 1 time. Rollins has stolen 17, getting caught 0 times. According to Baseball Prospectus, Rollins' overall baserunning skills have been worth an additional 2.1 runs this year; Ruiz's skills (if you want to call them that) have cost him 1.8 runs this year.
Still, fully understanding the issues related to speed on the basepaths, I'll take Chooch and his .404 OBP over Rollins and his .319 OBP any day.
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My God that Cartoon Yourself girl is hot.
Anyway, on the subject above, the speed is the only part that concerns me. I assume Rollins would hit 2nd with Peanut going back to 6 or 7. I like the idea of wreaking havoc on the baselines early in the order, but I’m not sure how significantly it really affects pitchers.
I agree in some respects, but in others I don’t. Each spot higher in the lineup is roughly 18 plate appearances more per year. I’d rather have Ruiz’s .888 OPS get another 126 plate appearances that would come from moving from 8 to 1.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. Although for Chooch it would be more like 95 PA, since he only plays about 3/4 of the time, being a catcher. Also, you’d need to move Rollins to 8th in order for all of those 95 PA to come at his expense. Which is a plausible alternative, but otherwise, the PAs would probably be split up between a number of different hitters.
Chooch bats infront of the pitcher
this has to be taken into account when judging his OBP and his high amount of walks. When you bat infront of the pitcher your going to get pitched around every once in a while
"World Champions...World F***in Champions" -Chase Utley
One minor thing being omitted (which I don’t think could possibly validate Rollins over Chooch, but would draw the comparisons ever so slightly closer) is that Chooch does bat 8th a lot and has the plate discipline to take the unintentional intentional walk. Rollins would probably fail this test hitting in the 8 hole.
Ruiz deserves the boost in OBP from being able to not get sucked into swinging at crap, but I would suspect his OBP to drop slightly when moved out from ahead of Exxon/Pitcher.
The comparison was a guy who had a 319 OBP
Do you believe his OBP would drop 85 points if he didn’t have ‘pitcher protection’?
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 6, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
(which I don’t think could possibly validate Rollins over Chooch, but would draw the comparisons ever so slightly closer)
Then why bring it up at all, seems awfully strawish. Bad plate discipline is bad plate discipline wherever one bats
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 6, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
So basically, you brought up the point to be contrary as opposed to thinking it mattered all that much?
Gotcha
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 6, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
no…I brought it up because I think the difference between Rollins and Chooch is exaggerated because of Ruiz batting 8th. The difference would ‘nt vaporize if Ruiz was moved to the 1 spot, but I wouldn’t expect him to do as well there as he does in his current position in the lineup, owing to him having good plate discipline and getting pitched around.
It’s a contributory factor, and one that I think is relevant, but would be shocked to see it make up the whole difference between J-Roll and Ruiz.
The catcher shall never hit leadoff
So sayeth the book
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 6, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions
Batting 8th
I took account of some of this in the story. First, I removed intentional walks from the walk rate. Chooch still has a better walk rate. And, his OBP without the intentional walks is .387, which is still significantly higher than Rollins’ .319 (which would be just slightly lower without his 2 intentional walks over that time period).
Now, you’re right, maybe he sees more unintentional intentional walks. Or, conversely, he gets better pitches to hit because the pitcher wants the opposing pitcher to lead off the next inning.
But, I can’t imagine that accounts for such a huge difference in on-base and hitting skills over the past year.
Just for reference, Chooch has batted 8th in 141 of his 266 plate appearances this year. Last year, virtually all were from the 8-hole, except for some 9-hole pinch hitting appearances.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
what really needs to be done
is for Charlie to start forcing Rollins into becoming more disciplined at the plate. Take 2-3 games and MAKE him see at least a trike (maybe 2) before he swings. I know its a bit ridiculous to say this about a major league player, but Rollins approach is nothing short of awful and he deserves to be taken to task on it!
His walk rate this year is actually quite strong. It was terrible last year, which is why his 8/15-8/15 stats are weak.
its not only about walks
its about working yourself into a hitters count and getting a pitch to drive in the gap…rather than swiinging for the fence on the first pitch and the result being a pop up to center!
From 8/15 through the end of last year, Jimmy had a .301 OBP, so he was getting on base less then than this year. But, his SLG was .436, meaning he had more power for the last month and a half last year than he’s shown this year.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Small sample size caveat, of course, but projected over a 150-game season, Rollins would be on pace to walk 86 times this year. If you adjusted his BABIP to his career norm, he’d be having a pretty great season right now.
Now, this is the second straight season that his BABIP has been very low, so it’s at least possible that it isn’t a fluke. We’ll see.
Back-of-the-envelope calculation:
With a .290 BABIP, Rollins would be at around .277/.367/.410. That’s actually not as good as I had expected, though it isn’t bad either. He isn’t hitting for much power this year, as David notes above.
Maybe swinging early in the count is hurting his BABIP? Possible. You’d think it would also lead to a low walk rate though, yet it doesn’t seem to be.
Swinging early? He’s seeing about the same number of pitchers per plate appearance as his career norm.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
i think his BB walk rate is a bit misleading this year
he started great with 7 walks in the first 5 games. if add to that the 4 walk game he had against Toronto it gives him 11 walks in 6 games.
He has 17 BBs in the remaining 43 games he has played this year. which based on a 150 game season is about 60 BBs. Not bad but not overly good for a lead off man
But he has neve been the conventional lead off man. I dont mind if he doesnt walk but still slugs… but thats not really happening either!
I will use your own argument against you here
from a previous thread:
Dobbs vs. Right are basically the same thing as Dobbs vs. Anyone stats. He only ever plays against righties.
You should look at their splits for the last month. Everyone knows Dobbs was terrible in his first 100 AB or so this year. He started hitting much better about a month ago.
by taco pal on Jul 31, 2010 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions
His very small sample size of the first week showed a very good walk rate… the remainder of the season has not.
Jujitsu subjecting. Sounds like a line from a 70’s kung fu movie. I can picture Tarantino quivering.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 6, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No, that is not your argument, because you’re selectively excluding specific games in which Rollins has walked. There is no principled cutoff.
A more sensible version of your argument would be to exclude certain stats based on recency. If you did that, Rollins’ walk rate would be somewhat lower, but not much. The lowest you could possibly get it, if you chose your parameters very self-servingly, would be 9.7%, which still would not be bad.
The true mirror image of my argument would be: Rollins has a lower walk rate in more recent games than he does overall. That would be true, but his walk rate still would be pretty decent.
The true mirror image of your argument would be: Dobbs has hit well if you just exclude every game in which he got no hits.
Is that clear enough?
not really
as about 40% of his walks have taken place in a sample of games that only represents about 14% of his season YTD.
that really is not akin to saying that his walk rate is lower in recent games. Its more like saying he had a great stretch of games but that really isnt the norm.
guess we will have to disagree on this. But we can agree that we all want to see Jimmy start hitting like he has in the past!
No, you are not “saying he had a great stretch of games but that really isnt the norm.” The games that you are referencing did not occur consecutively. There was a big gap of games between the first few of the year and the four walk game. Yet, you excluded only those games and failed to exclude any of the games in between. This is not an issue where we can “agree to disagree.” You are just cherry-picking stats in a self-serving manner.
you are right
i will re-phrase. he had a great stretch of 5 games and then 1 game that is totally and completely out of the norm!
the remaining 43 games have basically seen him do what he typically does.
the reason for that is because he doesn’t walk very often.
As an example..If i have 600 plate appearances, 5 per game (120 games), and 50 walks, you’d expect me to have 0 walks in a lot of the games…in fact…I’d have to have 0 walks in at least 70 of them (as I have 70 more games played than walks). If you throw out those 70 games…now I’ve got 50 walks in 250 PA’s which is a much higher rate, but not truly representative.
I don’t think it’s being done in a self-serving cherry picking manner, I just think the math consequences behind the approach are being considered.
That BABIP (.250 for 2009 – 2010) is atrocious for a hitter in any spot of the line-up. Exactly why he receives the negative sentiment for the lead-off position and the reason David even wrote this piece. (I disagree with the notion that OBP is a good reason to put a guy in the lead-off spot.)
BABIP measures luck for pitchers, but this is not necessarily true for hitters. Hitting the ball harder (HR’s are 1.000 BABIP, after all) and running faster (beating out infield singles) contribute to high BABIP, and of course the pitcher cannot control either of those things.
Well no, it measures it combination of luck and skill for both pitchers and hitters.
For pitchers, the vast majority of it is luck, and only a small % is skill.
For hitters, the majority of it is still luck, but less so. A greater % of it is skill than it is for pitchers, but it’s still not a very large %.
OBP isn’t a good reason for hitting leadoff? Why on earth wouldn’t it be? Certainly more compelling than BABIP.
Purely because it neglects baserunning abilities. Howard has a career .373 OBP, but you’re not going to lead him off every game. J-Rolls career OBP is .329. Because Ruiz is the subject of this fanpost is a career .347 OBP. Is it justifiable to count on OBP as a key measure for a leadoff hitter when Howard is the best of the 3?
The reason you don’t bat Howard leadoff isn’t because he’s slower, it’s because his power is better used when men are on base, meaning bat him lower in the lineup.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 6, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Right… the example serves the purpose though. Howard although he has the best career OBP of the 3 isn’t the man for the leadoff spot. Hence comparing Ruiz to Rollins and determining Ruiz is the better leadoff solution based on OBP disregards the abilities to steal bases, go from first to third or (for example last night) determine whether you can stretch a double into a triple.
The benefits of speed are quantifiable. Do you really think the benefits of having a faster guy outweigh the benefits of getting on base 3-8% more often? You can’t steal first base.
I don’t feel strongly about the lineup issue one way or another, but OBP is more important than speed.
Not making outs is just about the most important thing a hitter can do. Having more opportunities to not make outs (hitting higher in the line up) is a good thing.
by EJL on Aug 7, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think the bigger question than whether he (or any hitter really) is swinging too soon in an at bat has to come down to what pitch they are seeing. Think about the teams and hitters who have had the most luck with Halladay this season. What have they all done? The big trend is that they have realized that the best pitch they are going to get in an at bat is likely that first pitch, and have swung (and many times connected) accordingly. While I totally believe in tiring a pitcher out (if nobody is really able to hit him, it may make sense to do everything possible to prolong at bats to knock the pitcher out of the game), I really do not get aggravated at a hitter who swings at a well positioned first pitch strike— it is the garbage-y could have/ would have been ball one pitches that I hate to see them swing at.
It’s more likely that Ruiz as lead off will be successful that you teach Rollins plate discipline ‘suddenly’.
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 6, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Sarcasm
The Phillies could fine Jimmy every time he swings at the first pitch. When it comes time for him to resign he will owe the team so much that his next contract will almost be a wash.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 3:33 PM EDT reply actions
Incentive-laden contract:
1. Pop up out on first pitch seen: -$10,000.
2. Swing at pitch outside of zone by 6"+ per pitching records: -$500.
3. Walk: $5,000.
4. Hit: $7,500.
5. HBP: $3,000.
6. Line drive out: +$5,000.
7. GB out: -$1,000.
8. First pitch taken for ball $500.
9. First pitch taken for strike $350.
Just a SWAG. Un-possible, but daydreaming.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 6, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there’s at least as much of a case to hit Chooch cleanup in Howard’s absence as to lead him off. Haven’t looked at the numbers, but the “I watch the games” instinct tells me he often has good at-bats in big spots. The homer last night won the game, but he worked a deep count in (I think) the sixth before doubling in the first two runs. That wasn’t surprising to me at all.
This is not "either/or"
Rollins has walked more this year. Chooch gets “pitch around” walks sometimes. Ok. Hit Rollins first. Hit Chooch second. Fine.
The lineup is all screwed up without Utley and Howard and Vic right now, so why not give it a whirl?
Rollins/Chooch/Polly/Ibanez/Werth/Brown/Gload/Turd/Pitcher
Works for me. Lineups do matter marginally. There’s a tool to calculate optimal lineups. I suspect the better optimizations include Chooch nearer the top than now.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 6, 2010 3:58 PM EDT reply actions
By “Rollins has walked more” I should clarify; he has walked more compared to Rollins, not more than Chooch. Damn self-editing errors.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Aug 6, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
So walked more then he has in the past. I’ve only been watching the Phillies religiously for 3 years or so and the team “Walk more then he has in the past” to me means that he has seen less pitches that he could justify swinging at.
OT but,
I’ve started editing every comment I post with MS Word cause of the criticism I’ve gotten from yous guys.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
taco pal
Off Topic
Is there any way you could do a comparison between Philly’s WAR and Boston’s. I keep hearing how they have been beaten to death and its ok for their season to be a wash but, I haven’t heard a thing about the Phillies.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
TY
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Zolecki just tweeted tonight’s lineup. Chooch moves up to 7th. We get our first look at Sweeney.
Rollins SS
Ibanez LF
Polanco 3B
Sweeney 1B
Werth CF
Francisco RF
Ruiz C
Valdez 2B
Blanton P.
anybody surprised Sweeney is batting cleanup out of the gate?
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, fair point.
Remember when we used to load up our lineup with righties whenever we faced Tom Glavine? That drove me up the wall.
That’s probably why we didn’t hit him very well, either.
Doesn’t Santana have reverse splits, too?
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Not so with Hamels this year:
vs RHB 3.68 .269 .319 .445 .764
vs LHB 2.06 .178 .302 .347 .650
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
That’s a big split.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s got a good looking swing.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Can’t be worse then Werth… can it?
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m just frustrated. He’s one hell of a player but, that being said he’s better then he’s been. He had a great start of the season backed up with one of the worst stretches I’ve seen then comes out of the ASB like a man on a mission then follows that up with something like seven straight strike outs. How is that passable?
He has all the tools and I’m a huge Werth fan I guess I just expect more out of him.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Since we’re all Chase Utley’s thumb, should we be celebrating that his splint just came off?
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Cheer
(Is it bad that I had to spell check that)
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
WC
Where’s it at?
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 6, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
This is kind of funny. Amazin Avenue picks apart Andy Martino’s article that the Mets could use some swagger from the “…arrogant, condesceding Phillies”…
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/8/6/1609547/did-the-2006-mets-have-swagger#comments
This is what characterizes the Phillies of this era, and what separates them from the Mets:
Swagger. Arrogance. Condescension toward opponents….
The team has, however, lacked the swagger that, to hear those who were there tell it, defined the 1986 Mets, and has defined the 2007-2010 Phillies. Utley will slide spikes-up into any second baseman, and Rollins will publicly bash his opponents. When Colorado manager Jim Tracy this spring complained that the Phillies kept binoculars in their bullpen in an apparent attempt to steal signs, Charlie Manuel told him to “quit crying.” The Phillies manager then, without provocation, accused the Mets of stealing signs.
It all adds up to a “(expletive) you” edge that the Mets lack.
Amusing, no?
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Mets’ fans are a smart bunch, even if they root for the stinkin’ Mets.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I truly despise the Mets. Even more so than the Braves. In fact, fuck the Mets.
That is all.
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? The Braves have had much more success and the much weaker fanbase (i.e. I don’t care who you are—your team wins 14 consecutive titles, you sell out those playoff games—they can’t even frontrun correctly down there). The Mets as an organization are just as futile as our beloved Phils and had they been around as long would only be a tick behind us in losing percentage.
I really, really don’t like the Mets, but I loathe the Braves. At least I can respect Met fans, for the most part.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I hate the Mets and their fans more as well. But I must admit that my feelings toward Mets fans have softened slightly after our rather unpleasant interactions with the Yankees fan base last fall. If I had to share the same city with folks like that, I might be driven toward dickishness too.
I went to high school with Mike Piazza. It just killed me to watch him in that Mets uniform.
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I work with a lot of Met fans, and yes, they can be dicks, but it’s in the same vein as the Philly fan dickishness…so it’s easier to take. Yankees fans are just arrogant. I’d rather someone give me shit than look down on me. Pittsburgh fans are similar in this regard in that they look down their nose at anything Philly.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
That’s funny. I know a few Pittsburghers and they have the exact same impression of us – that we look down on them since we’re the big cosmopolitan city in Pennsylvania, etc.
All of the worst interactions with fans I’ve ever had has been with Pittsburgh fans (Pitt, Pens, Steelers—I don’t know why Steelers even have a beef with us because the Eagles aren’t in the same conference). I was at a Pirates game once and a group started in on me, telling me the Phillies suck. This was about 5 years ago, and the Phils weren’t a playoff team yet, but they were above .500, which is more than you can/could say about the Pirates.
I like Pittsburgh just fine, but don’t understand why they have so much vitriol for Philly teams. Their only real rival is the Flyers and that’s only been a recent development.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Seriously, Martino is a real disappointment. He followed Zolecki, who I thought was a very good beat writer, and I really liked him at first. But then he started to write bad article after bad article. I’m glad that he left and Murphy stayed, because Murphy is the superior journalist.
Agreed. I like Murphy’s humor too when he does those live chats. People rip into him and he just makes a big joke out of it. He’s coming into his own…
by Boundforbeach on Aug 6, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
then cram yer statistics, and back I go to baseball verse.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 6, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
so schmenkman gets the auto nod, but Cohen goes begging? What’s the guy gotta do, catch a ball on TV or something?
Imma talk to that JasonB, and wound that Smithers, too.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 6, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
How do you guys feel about secondary average for this comparison, since in some respects it does account for stolen bases and walks? Or do you see it as mainly useless compared to OBP?
I like the concept as it’s much simpler in construction than the more advanced saber stats like WAR or even OPS. I think the denominator should be plate appearances rather than at bats though, and I don’t get why hits are subtracted in the numerator.
I actually would love to see something like this used in place of OPS, but here’s how I would revise it:
(Times on base + extra bases) / plate appearances
So, ignoring reaching on errors and sacrifices and other such minutiae, that’s
((H + BB – CS) + ((TB – H) + SB))/PA
(TB – H) isolates extra bases from total bases
Which simplifies to
(TB + BB + SB – CS)/PA
If I had the skillz I’d like to run the numbers to how this would correlate with run scoring compared with advanced numbers. I’m sure WAR et al would be superior but if it’s close I’d rather use the more intuitive stats.
Take a look at wOBA.
I think your formula is better than OPS, but you need to work on your weightings:
1) a CS is a much worse negative than an SB is a positive; a CS costs you an out;
2) a single is better than a walk, so they should be weighted differently; and
3) by using TB, you assume that a double is worth twice a single; a triple three times a single; and a HR four times; those are not the correct weightings for each type of hit.
wOBA addresses these issues and produces a result that I think is better than OPS and OBP.
by Derekcarstairs on Aug 7, 2010 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions
It might not be all that useful of a thing to bring up, but I just read a book about the 1975 Reds, who were dominant & won it all that year. Their leadoff man also stole zero bases and was there just because he got on base well. Not saying that Chooch is Pete Rose, but the numbers above & the Rose of ’75 are not far off.
by Putsy Caballero. on Aug 7, 2010 10:44 PM EDT reply actions
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