Phillies Prospect Roundup: Wally Pipp edition
I'm back, and it seems like not a moment too soon, as Wet Luzinski was on the verge of Lou Gehrig-ing me with a solid series of prospect pieces. I can but hope that the TGP commentariat will readjust to a more left brain oriented roundup, lest I wind up shuttled off to a Cincinnati blog.
What's truly crazy is how much has happened in the intervening weeks -- and how little time is left in the minor league season. Additionally, next Monday represents the signing deadline for the Rule 4 draft, so there will be plenty to analyze on that front, as we can finally take stock of the Phillies' 2010 draft class. In other words, be prepared for a hectic few weeks of prospect-y goodness.
With that said, let's dive back in, shall we? Check below the jump for info on Dom, a behemoth, the local boy draft pick, and a Texas hotel that just cannot seem to move to Reading for some reason...
Domonic Brown, OF-L, Philadelphia: Anyone needing evidence of how difficult it is to make adjustments to the majors should look no further than Brown's first two weeks with the Phillies. His pattern has been a pretty standard one -- it takes Dom a bit of time after a midseason promotion to bring his plate discipline into line, as witnessed by last year's stint in Double-A (8.6% BB, 25.2% K), this year's brief stint in Triple-A (6.8% BB, 21.5% K), and his 33 plate appearance big league sample (0 BB, 11 K). There's nothing to worry about long-term here, as Dom can be counted on to make adjustments, but maybe this should show that certain people aren't crazy after all.
Matt Rizzotti, 1B-L, Lehigh Valley: The behemoth first baseman was promoted to Triple-A last week, and it came at a good time, as Eastern League hurlers had pretty much stopped pitching to him. Rizzotti finishes the Double-A challenge with a .362/.451/.638 line in 308 plate appearances -- a line that comes complete with a 12.7% BB and 21.1% K (batteries, and glove, sold separately). The above mini-rant on the difficulty of adjusting to the majors applies to Rizzotti too -- Ross Gload and Mike Sweeney are better options in the short-term -- but that shouldn't diminish what's been an impressive campaign from the Long Island native.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Lehigh Valley: I was as frustrated as anyone with the tiny lefty's inability to throw strikes in major league action this year -- 9 walks in 12.1 innings is, quite simply, unacceptable -- but I think it's safe to say that Bastardo has absolutely nothing lefty left to prove in the minors. In 13.2 Triple-A innings this year, Tony the Bastard has allowed just 4 hits, 3 walks, and 0 runs, while whiffing 21. Yeah... that's an FIP of 0.70 with a BAA of .089. At the very least, he should be up when rosters expand, and I don't see any way that he doesn't make himself a solid major league reliever.
Harold Garcia, 2B-S, Reading: Our buddy Bello is looking like one of the more glaring omissions from last year's Top 30 list. The organization seems to love him, and for good reason: he hasn't skipped a beat after promotion to Double-A, and now sports a .339/.412/.463 line in 30 games at the level. He's got good speed, obviously has some hitting ability from both sides of the plate, and his glove is apparently excellent (which his +13 Total Zone mark from last year attests to). Not sure if he'll be ready to challenge for a utility job on the big league club next year, but he certainly deserves a shot at it.
Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Lakewood: Speaking of omissions from the offseason Top 30... Rodriguez impressed in the Gulf Coast League last year, but 6 homers surrendered in 49.2 innings in a pitcher friendly league ultimately scared me off of including him. It turns out that fear was unfounded, as the 2008 8th round pick has been impressive at two stops this year, with a 3.17 FIP in 34.0 innings for Williamsport and a 2.18 FIP in 31.1 innings for Lakewood (including 47 strikeouts). He's also been nearly unhittable in his last 3 outings, surrendering just 9 hits, 2 walks, and 1 run over 14 innings while striking out 25. Let's just say, "stock: up."
Jesse Biddle, LHP, GCL Phillies: I mentioned in a comment a few weeks back that I like to compare Biddle to another local draftee the Phillies may have slightly reached on, 2008 2nd rounder Jason Knapp. After three strong outings in a row, Biddle's numbers (11.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.66 HR/9, 39.7% GB, 2.28 FIP) are actually a tick better than Knapp's 2008 sample (11.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.29 HR/9, 38.8% GB, 2.33 FIP). Knapp, of course, vaulted himself into the top 100 prospects in baseball with a breakout 2009 campaign, and while it'd be overly aggressive to predict anything like that for Biddle, it's at least fair to say that the pick is looking better and better with each start.
Justin De Fratus, RHP, Reading: I like De Fratus more than I probably should like a pure relief prospect, but his performance record speaks for itself. If anything, the right hander has gotten better after an early July promotion to Reading, as he's surrendered just 8 hits, 2 runs, one homer and one walk while striking out 13 in 13.0 Double-A innings. Baseball America reported that De Fratus touched 98 on the gun in the FSL All-Star game, so his stuff clearly plays up out of the pen. Between Bastardo, De Fratus, Scott Mathieson and Michael Schwimer, hopefully Ruben Amaro can to cobble together a low-cost bullpen over the next few years instead of resorting to Danys Baez type signings.
Cameron Rupp, C-R, Williamsport: The organization's 3rd round pick this year out of Texas, Rupp is a hulking (6'1", 240-lb.) catcher with a good defensive reputation, solid raw power, and big holes in his swing. His .235/.333/.402 line with 11.1% BB and 22.7% K through 37 games in indicative of his offensive skill set, though he's surprisingly struggled a bit with the leather in the early going (gunning down just 19% of base stealers). He reminds me a bit of Taylor Teagarden, both in background and skill set, and while his ultimate upside is probably as a second division starter, he strikes me as a good bet to carve out a lengthy career as an excellent backup.
Josh Zeid, RHP, Lakewood: Zeid won the organization's minor league pitcher of the month award back in April for his work as Lakewood's closer, but as a 23-year old reliever sporting meh peripherals (12:8 K:BB for the month), there didn't seem to be a lot to get excited over. The Tulane product has steadily improved over the course of the campaign, however, and his work since he was shifted to the rotation at the beginning of July has been impressive: 9.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.43 HR/9, 45.5% GB, 2.43 FIP. He'll obviously need to prove it at higher levels, but it's been a solid 2010 campaign for Zeid.
Austin Hyatt, RHP, Clearwater: It feels like we've been saying "Hyatt doesn't have anything left to prove in High-A" since May, doesn't it? Nothing's really changed on that front, as the righty surrendered just 1 run in 13 innings last week to move his season line (in 124.1 innings) to 11.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.36 HR/9, 34.8% GB, and a 2.06 FIP. Whether his future lies in the rotation or in the bullpen is an open question, but the fact that we're realistically talking about major league possibilities for a 15th round senior sign is a really good thing.
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Hyatt
PF, any idea why they didn’t bump Hyatt to Reading earlier this season? Seems like someone you want to aggressively push on a “sink or swim” program.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I’m honestly not sure. He fell victim to the BABIP fairy a bit in May (peripherals were still good, but ERA wasn’t), and I wonder if maybe that kept the club from pulling the trigger on a promotion? Alternatively, I was trying to figure out if the Clearwater and Reading rotation situations prevented a promotion.
Bottom line though, he deserves it, and the Phils could have accommodated him if they really wanted to. It’s odd.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thank goodness he came up in the midst of a team hot streak, huh? Otherwise I could see his struggles being scrutinized in that typical Philadelphia way by the same people who held Brown up as the savior.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 9, 2010 12:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
True. It could come any year. All he needs to do is not live up to the impossibly high expectations that the fans and media set for him for, say, half a season. Doesn’t help that he’s black either. For his own sake, its probably a good thing that he seems to have some of Utley’s stoicism.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 9, 2010 12:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
ehh….maybe by the masses, but you have to give guys some time. It’s been what, a week since he was called up. RyHo has had weeks like this as well.
Where in any of the above comments did I indicate I was unwilling to give Brown time? If anything, I think he should still be in AAA for his own development because Cholly hasn’t really demonstrated any commitment to getting the kid daily ABs against both righties and lefties.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 9, 2010 12:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m just wondering but what dose the color of his skin halfto do with anything?
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Aug 9, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s naive to think that the color of one’s skin (when it comes to sports) doesn’t factor into how a player is perceived. Although I don’t quite agree with FM about the level of racial bias that Brown receives/will receive, I agree on the premise that there will be bias if he continues not to perform up to the God-like numbers that the masses want to see. In the end, and unfortunately, this will be written about ad nauseum, and for some it will be a race issue
"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants"
~Thomas Jefferson
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Aug 9, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I don’t think the majority are overt racists or anything like that, although there are certainly some people like that out there. But it’s just an unfortunate aspect of human nature that people tend to unconsciously give less slack to people who are different from them. So even when people don’t mean to be prejudiced in any sort of malicious way, it often just happens.
They do and they don’t. When I was fresh out of college I got a door to door sales job in Kensington (that lasted about 2 weeks for me) and I ended up getting invited one guys house who proceeded to tell me how he wished the Eagles had a white QB, but that McNabb was good for a insert choice word here but could you imagine how good they’d be with someone like Tim Couch or Cade McNown instead (remember it was 1998, here), so I imagine they still care, but to a lesser degree.
Yeah, I said “doesn’t help that he’s black” not because I actually think most (white) people in this city are racist, but simply because it would be irresponsible not to remember the way a number of talented (and not so talented) black athletes have been treated by fans in this city and that it could also play a part in people turning on Dom, if they do. It’s also true that the city has turned on talented white athletes too. The only thing I meant to imply was that when the city turns on black athletes there is always race, which is a very complicating factor.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
What’s race got to do with it?
Go here and take a test or two. Then you’ll have your answer.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 9, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s pretty interesting stuff, David.
“Your data suggest little to no automatic preference between European American and African American.”
Yay?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Yeah, that’s good! I think individual results are interesting, but more interesting/troubling are the overall results that they show you at the end.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 9, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
“Your data suggest that you preferred Bobby Hoying to Donovan McNabb not because you’re a racist, but because you’re an idiot.”
Weird result, huh?
That’s an outcome that is rarely covered in the academic literature, although I believe there was once an article in the Journal of Psychotic Sports Fandom about that.
by David S. Cohen on Aug 9, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess on Hyatt is that they want to keep open the option of trading him this offseason and feel that the risk of hurting his trade value with a short stint in AA that goes poorly outweighs the reward of helping it with a stint that goes well. But who knows.
Other than 5th starter, what would they really need to trade for this winter? The offense seems pretty well set, the bullpen should be fine with the graduates from the Iron Pigs filling it out. Is Hyatt worth a 5th starter? Conversely, is a 5th starter worth Hyatt? Is a starter in trade better than Kendrick/Worley/FA? Can Brett Wallace emotionally handle another Phillies trade for a starting pitcher? These are key questions, here, people.
Poor Wallace. It’s like he’s been sentenced to wander the earth as a punishment for some misdeed. They could create a TV series about him. I’d probably stick with Kendrick/Worley/FA personally. For “FA” I would love it if they took a flyer on Jamie Moyer if he agreed to a low-salary one-year deal, which I think he might under the circumstances.
Anyway, I don’t know that they need to have any specific trade targets in mind. It’s just good to keep your options open.
I like the Moyer idea. I was thinking the same last night (I think of odd things to get myself to sleep).
Well, reflecting on the slow, meandering journey of a Moyer pitch is a pretty good way to relax.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/jamie-moyer-changeup-arrives-at-home-plate-after-l,6214/
Poor Wallace. It’s like he’s been sentenced to wander the earth as a punishment for some misdeed.
Killing the albatross? Like “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner”?
Wait, he was tangentally involved in the Lee trade, wasn’t he? Makes literary sense, I guess.
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
No, the Halladay trade. We sent Michael Taylor to the Blue Jays who sent him to the A’s for Wallace. We then sent Gose to the Astros for Oswalt and the Astros sent Gose to the Jays for Wallace.
Ah, welcome back PF! So let’s say Rizz continues to mash in AAA, what then?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 9, 2010 12:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hey buddy! Didn’t finish reading yet, but from what I’ve seen, I thoroughly enjoyed the BBM thing yesterday.
If Rizzotti mashes at Triple-A, he can replace Ryan Howard when the big guy’s contract is up next year. Oh wait… no seriously, I think Rizzotti in the outfield would make Adam Dunn look like a Gold Glover, so his value to the Phillies will either be as a young version of Matt Stairs or as pure trade bait.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 9, 2010 12:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So he’s completely useless in left field? That’s a bummer.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Aug 9, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
According to Fangraphs, the corner outfielder with the worst UZR/150 in baseball is Andre Ethier (really?), followed by Carlos Quentin, Trevor Crowe and Matt Kemp (again, really?).
The worst left fielders are Jonny Gomes, Carlos Lee, and Fred Lewis. Raul is fourth worst. Carl Crawford absolutely blows everyone out of the water here with a +36.6. So playing Crawford instead of Gomes (-21.7) would save you almost 60 runs per year? Wow.
Of course, UZR can be funky – an entire year can be a small sample size. The third and fourth best left fielders in baseball this year according to UZR/150 are Matt Holliday and Alfonso Soriano. That seems dubious, although who knows.
Anyway, I guess the question is whether Rizzotti be better than Jonny Gomes or Carlos Lee out there. That seems to be the bare minimum level of competence to allow you to play LF in the majors.
I haven’t seen Rizzotti play, so I’ll admit I’m piecing things together here… but that’s what I gather. He’s DH’ed enough that there are even some questions about his fielding at first base, and even comparing him athletically to the poor fielders that TP mentions above, it’s not really a pretty picture. I like using speed score as a rough proxy for potential range in the outfield, and as bad as some of those guys are — Lee (from 2.3 to 2.6 over the past 3 years), Burrell (career 2.2), Gomes (career 4.7), Ibanez (career 3.9) — Rizzotti is possibly worse, with a 1.8 last year and a 2.6 and 2.7 in his other full seasons.
The Clearwater rotation next year could be absolutely killer. Cosart, Colvin, May, maybe Rodriguez, and – I don’t know… Nick Hernandez? Too bad nobody will be able to see those guys down there.
Actually I guess we have a few Floridians around here, don’t we? We’ll be expecting regular scouting reports from you guys next season.
I’m in Florida, but the distance from me to Clearwater is about the same as Philadelphia to Gettysburg. I might be able to make a weekend game or two, but weeknights are out, since I work an early shift.
Honor is no substitute for victory.
Checking, for the heck of it:
Bradenton: 114 miles
Viera: 55 miles
Port Charlotte: 134 miles
Clearwater: 106 miles
Daytona: 54 miles
Dunedin: 108 miles
Fort Myers: 153 miles
Jupiter: 155 miles (also applies to the Palm Beach Cardinals)
Lakeland: 54 miles
St. Lucie: 110 miles
Tampa: 84 miles
Dagnabbit, I want my Orlando Rays back
Honor is no substitute for victory.
“…but I think it’s safe to say that Bastardo has absolutely nothing lefty to prove in the minors.”
(groan)
I’d like to claim I tried that, but I’d be lying. So that leads to a philosophical question: does it make a terrible pun better or worse when it’s unintentional?
by PhillyFriar on Aug 9, 2010 2:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Zeid
Finally, some love for my favorite Lakewood pitcher that no one talks about.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Aug 9, 2010 4:47 PM EDT reply actions
Drew Naylor
Was at Reading last night on my way up to the mountains. I was hoping to see a lot more from Naylor, aka the Brisbane Bronto, but he disappointed. (The Dom Brown kids’ giveaway shirts looked great on my two boys, though). On the other hand, he didn’t have a helluva lot of help. I mean, Kevin Mahar in right field is a travesty compared to what Dom is able to do, and in Sunday’s game, Mahar muffed a couple of balls at the fence that didn’t help Naylor out at all. But they were smashed to the fence.
I’d have to poke around what he’s thrown before, but per the CF radar gun, on Sunday Naylor topped out only in the mid-80s. He does showcase some very nice offspeed pitches, so just based on one game, you could maybe see him as a Chad Durbin type, maybe Chan Ho Park. Tops. To feed into the thread above, Hyatt should be used to push him during ST next year – either into the bullpen or to the IronPigs’ bullpen. I kind of wonder though – Naylor is such a big dude, perhaps with a tweak to his delivery he could get over 90mph. He better do something, he’s 25 next year, and it may be time to cut bait on him. Maybe he could develop a knuckleball.
On the offensive side of the ball, I know I got the Bello thing rolling, but Garcia in person honestly did sell me, selection bias aside. Very good eye, compact at the plate, quick bat. Bozied too just has a presence that the other guys don’t seem to have. Just the Phils luck that Bozied is another first baseman. (Also, the announcer pronounced his last name bo-ZAYD, which I absolutely….loved. Brought to mind years ago (must have been 1997) when I saw this guy in New Haven, whose last name was pronounced fah-JAY.) I had formed that opinion about Bozied before I found out that he hit the 3-run HR to do some cosmetics on the final score. I missed it to get on the road to continue my upstate journey.
BTW, thanks much for the spot-starts and kind words. The gig has really gotten me on the road to find out about the system.
Minor league fielding
In Sunday’s game, Mahar muffed a couple of balls at the fence that didn’t help Naylor out at all. But they were smashed to the fence.
Since I’ve been attending some Southern League AA games here in the last few years, I’ve been very surprised at the lack of good fielding. A lot of it is really awful, especially in the outfield, especially in the power alleys. It would seem that part of the development of Dom’s fielding positioning (as opposed to throwing) is pretty much par for the course. Given his relatively quick flight through the minors, I’m guessing he will excel in some areas and be a “work-in-process” in others.
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
Lookouts? Haven’t they renovated that place? I have a friend in TN (closer to Huntsville) who has bemoaned that re-do.
They were challenge balls, for sure, and exactly as you describe. But one popped out of the guy’s glove, and the other was probably more a function of foot speed (Mahar looked to my admittedly untrained eye as, well “plodding.”). Footspeed won’t be Brown’s problem to start with.
by Wet Luzinski on Aug 10, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Or Diamond Jaxx or Smokies. Technically, depending upon where in TN, you could also get to the Stars fairly easily.
Julio Rodriguez did it again last night. 4.1 IP, 7 K, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 unearned run.
Now up to 32 K, 2 BB, 9 H, 1 ER in 18.1 IP since his promotion. So he’s struck out close to 50% of the batters he’s faced over that stretch.
Lots of talent in A-ball for this team. Hot damn.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 10, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting take on Trevor May (and many other interesting items) from Phuture Phillies interview with Mike from Scouting the Sally:
May is attacking, but he just loses his release point far too often. In the South Atlantic League, pitchers like May can get by with 90-92 MPH fastballs up, but as his 5.01 ERA in the Florida State League showed, success in the Florida State League is significantly harder to attain.
All kinds of good nuggets in the interview, worth checking out.

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