Some Phillies Links For You, September 1, 2010: Down the Stretch, MetsFail, Chapmania!
by WholeCamels on Sep 1, 2010 10:30 AM EDT
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PrintOswalt, Kershaw clash to open final month
Kershaw winless against the Phillies in his career.
LHP Chapman hits 102 mph in debut
Dusty Baker licking his chops... another arm to destroy!
Phillies Notebook: Polanco, Howard, Utley in dry spell for Phillies
"I want to play Domonic some, but at the same time I look at our lineup, and, like I've said before, that's our lineup," the manager said. "Like I've said before, too, I think he's going to be a tremendous player. I think he needs experience, but also I think that if we are going to get it done, that's our team. I believe in that lineup, and I think that's the one that's carried us in the past, and I think that's how it's got to be. I've stuck with some guys all year long. I don't see the sense in not playing them now."
Then he should have gone back to Triple-A. Oh well, spilled milk, who cares about the development of your top prospect?
Dan Gross: Madsons going green in Wayne
Good for the Madsons.
Nats’ Strasburg to have surgery in L.A. on Friday
This really is too bad.
Phillies Earl Weaver-ed the Dodgers
This link is for Wet Luzinski.
Niese unable to contain Braves in defeat
The New York Mets... is there anything they CAN do?
Torres' homer leads Giants to 5-2 win over Rockies
The Giants keep pace with the Phillies and remain two games back in the loss column.
Let the shut outs continue.... Astros 3, Cardinals 0 - The Crawfish Boxes
The Cardinals keep foundering, dropping three games back of the Phillies in the loss column.
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Then he should have gone back to Triple-A.
Obviously agreed, but this raised an interesting question in my mind — whose decision was it to keep Brown around? If it was primarily Amaro’s (or someone else in the front office), then I can’t totally blame Charlie for using his bench in a manner he thought would best win baseball games. But if Charlie said that he’d like to have Dom around, then proceeded not to play him… well then, then I’d have a serious issue with our skipper.
But I also think Brown was Price-Is-Right’d a bit by Utley and Howard coming back sooner than the organization thought, which took away potential ABs (though not PT in the OF).
And there should be more two-letter acronymns in our lives, generally.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 1, 2010 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Could it have been one of those decisions that sounded good when it was made (particularly considering how right handed the bench was with Dobbs back down and Gload on the DL), that may be better for the team in the short run, but is hindering them longterm?
by dannijd on Sep 1, 2010 10:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Is a few weeks in the minors really going to make that much of a difference to the point where this becomes a serious debate about his handling?
by Boundforbeach on Sep 1, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Probably not, but calling up the #1 prospect in baseball and having him ride the pine is fairly nonsensical. Leaving him up in Philly may not hurt his development, but it clearly isn’t helping in any fashion.
3 All Star OF
Brown was called up to play for Victorino. He should have been sent down but then Gload got hurt. Did Phillies really want Andy Tracy pinch hitting for two weeks or Dom Brown?
I agree the best case would have been Gload PH and Brown in AAA getting some more ABs. But Brown can pinch run and play OF better than Ibanez.
Apparently this #1 prospect in baseball is not very good yet. While Chapman is throwing a buck and a nickel, Brown is trying to keep his avg above that. If Brown was mashing he would get some starts. But the Phillies need wins and having Brown take AB away from all-star players is not easy. All of them have the potential to get hot but who is the safest bet.
I think it is only a two week ‘mistake’ because Brown would be joining the team in a couple days to ride then bench just as he is now. Maybe the extra time watching Utley and Howard will do more than some low pressure ABs vs AAA pitchers.
All kinds of problems here.
1. Andy Tracy isn’t on the 40 man and would be unlikely to get called up. If Brown went down and Gload went to DL Mayberry should have gotten the call or possibly just keep Dobbs up.
2. Every player is prone to cold streaks and most players need time to adjust. Aroldis Chapman hyperbole aside, Brown is very good and seeing more breaking pitches from AAA pitchers on a regular basis for two weeks does a lot more good than watching Utley and Howard from the bench will.
3. If Brown is “not very good” or can’t get on the field because of the “All star players” in front of him, that is even more argument for him to have spent the last 2 weeks in Allentown.
I’m actually more concerned with the “I’m in the box and don’t make me come out of it!” answer Cholly gave. It is the same answer that brought in Lidge to pitch the 9th inning of Game 4 of the World Series. It is the same answer that caused him to overwork Utley in previous years, burning him out by Sept/Oct. This may also be the answer why he immediately started Utley and Howard off the DL instead of easing them in after short rehab stints (it was interesting to see Sweeney in to give Howard “rest” over the weekend). It is Cholly’s way, and his tacit knowledge did lead to the win in 2008…but like most people, his weaknesses are flip sides of his strengths.
Cholly eventually does learn….we now see a quicker hook for Big Joe, Kyle and JC. But in Brown’s case, it could be more problematic for him to wait for the “do-over” since for some young players, the do-over never comes, or is greatly impeded. We deride Frenchy, and cheer his trade to the Rangers, but you can look to Frenchy’s callup directly from AA as a major reason his career has been pretty much as bust (fyi: see Kendrick, Kyle for more on this problem).
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
Spot on for Frenchy analysis (though KK, frankly, is what he is, regardless of when he was called up, he was never bound for anything greater than 5th starter).
I don’t believe that Francouer was hurt by coming up so fast — he was a passable player for 2-3 years before he became completely useless. If he hadn’t been promoted so quickly, he could have actually spent two of his peak years in AA/AAA and been even less of an impact player at the MLB level.
Yes, he could have learned patience, but I find it hard to believe he would have learned that in the minors given that he couldn’t pick it up in the big leagues after all this time. Possible, maybe, but I’d file it under “very unlikely.”
it boggles my mind that he still swings at that many first pitches even though the every pitcher in baseball knows he is going to do it.
anyone know his numbers when he hacks away on that first pitch?
Possible
But I would trade those 2-3 passable years for a chance at 7 or 8 good to great years every time. He probably wouldn’t have improved, but asking the guy to do it once he gets to the majors is pretty much impossible.
Except that many major prospects start out with a couple of passable years before having a breakout season — Pat Burrell comes to mind. So do Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley to some extent, and plenty of players not on the Phillies. So clearly, there’s a level of improvement that often takes place at the MLB level; not everyone takes the Ryan Howard path of being right around their peak level when they reach the majors.
Francoeur was never going to be a star. He topped out at the #14 prospect in the Braves organization before 2005. Over four minor league seasons, he hit for decent average and power, but struck out 264 times vs only 89 walks in 1558 plate appearances (and an astonishing 21 GIDPs in 134 games one season!). That’s what a hitter who’s going to be overmatched in the big leagues looks like in the minors.
The Braves got their money’s worth out of him. Their only mistake was in not trading him sooner.
I should note in fairness that Francoeur was pretty young for high-A and AA when he was there, so that mitigates his weak peripherals somewhat. But even in his very good partial season in rookie ball, while his walk rate was decent his strikeout rate was alarming and the next year, while he improved his strikeout rate, his walk rate plummeted.
I think that deserves the “Yay Guys” image in multiple!
by dannijd on Sep 1, 2010 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No, this is a bad thing. We want someone that bad getting regular ABs in our division.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I believe this means the Phillies and Rangers are now destined to meet in the World Series.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 1, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize it’s lame to buy into hype, but man, Chapman’s sliders on that first strike out were incredible.
Any word on if he’s got an inverted W going on
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Sep 1, 2010 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha, not sure. But, in all seriousness, his experience pitching for Cuba probably bodes decently well for his durability. It’s not like his arm hasn’t been under duress before, so precedent is at least on his side.
Though I’d wonder — and this is through the lens of half-understanding j reed’s medically based posts, so he’d know better — if the sudden switch to the bullpen might be an injury risk for a long-practiced starter.
I think his future is in the bullpen, as a closer. And the injury risk is usually the other way around.
For the record, Chapman’s mechanics are really nice. His biggest problem in the World Baseball Classic (haven’t really seen him pitch since) is that he has a dramatically different arm angle for his off speed stuff, than for his Fastball. He may have worked on this in Triple-A. Still, he has a seriously awesome cannon arm.
I hadn’t heard that he was slated for the bullpen long term (size of contract and AAA experience as starter led me to think that he’d be headed to the rotation), but it seems pretty plausible, and it would make sense that the injuries would tend the other way, given the downtick in innings pitched for a relief pitcher.
I guess he’s supposed to have worked some mechanics out in AAA ball, as his walks were kind of jumpy there for a while, and, if you believe the Reds announcers, have normalized a bit. I would think not only injury but also wildness would attend a wild shift in arm angle for off-speed pitches, but that seems like a huge mechanical shift to make in just 3/4 of a season.
Well, in all fairness, the Reds will try to make him a starter again next spring, since Bailey, Cueto and Harang aren’t making anyone lose sleep preparing for the Reds. I just think with his different arm angles combined with the fact that throwing 100+ MPH as a starter has a bad history of not working out that he’ll end up a lights out closer. I could be wrong, there’s a first time for everything. :)
Also, from that I recall one of the early knocks on Chapman was that his Fastball and Slider tend to drift on him and his control of them was kind of spotty. So the walks may or may not have been evidence of mechanical work.
Cardinals management dropping the ball?
I was listening in to Sirius/XM yesterday and the hosts (one of them was Jim Bowden, don’t remember the other one) were saying that the real losers of the trade deadline were the Cardinals. While Ryan Ludwick is just an average player, they said that he at least provided some vague protection for Pujols/Holliday. According to Bowden et al the rest of the lineup is mostly awful. So the trade to shore up pitching for the stretch drive and playoffs ended up weakening their real weak point, offense. Cardinals’ fans apparently believed that the Ludwick/Westbrook trade was a precursor to other trades that never came.
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
I think the Cards were gambling that they could replace Ludwick’s production with some combination of Jay/Craig/Winn, and that a Duncan-inspired Westbrook would be a big upgrade at the back of a rotation that, at that point, had been giving regular starts to Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan.
On the other hand, I think the Padres made out well getting Ludwick, and that the Indians got anything for pending free agent Westbrook is a good deal for them. A weird deal, sure, but I actually kinda liked it for all sides.
Agreed
Seemed to fit for each side. Pitchers are more valuable at the deadline. Ludwick is not great but given how bad the Padres lineup was, Tejeda and Ludwick became the middle of their order instantly. (Amazing that the Phillies cannot score with all-star Victorino batting 7th and OBP machine Ruiz at 8th, ugh).
Both Padres and Cards in the midst of major slides so maybe there was no saving either team. At the time the young guys in St Louis were looking good.
Dom Brown options issue
Victorino was put on the DL on 7/28 and came off on 8/12. It was perfectly reasonable to think it could have been more than two weeks and Dom Brown was mashing and obviously was a good fill in, as of 7/28, so calling him up made sense. On 8/12, he could have been sent back down but he wasn’t. The Lehigh Valley season ends 9/6, so there were 26 games of development time that he lost there, maybe 100 PA or so more than he’ll get as a PH in Philly. Certainly those could have helped.
But I’d like if someone would remind me of the rule about options which I can never keep straight. You get 3 but if you try to option somebody the 4th time, they can be claimed, right? Or you get 2 before he can be claimed on the 3rd time? I could see the Phillies seeing that he was struggling and thinking that the team control aspect of being able to send him up and down if he struggles over a few years before emerging is valuable, and might be more important than 100 PA extra, especially if he works well with Greg Gross in batting practice or something like that. I know that he is not likely to be sent up and down like that, but there are plenty of Milledge/Gordon/Wieters type guys that are passable but struggle somewhat in the majors after dominating the minors, and contending teams can’t really afford to keep a guy out there who is not doing well. If the Phillies are afraid that Brown will require a few options while he struggles and want to maintain control of him, I could see that outweighing 100 PA. Not sure I agree but I see a tradeoff, depending on the rules.
* Once a player is on his team’s 40-man roster, his club has three separate seasons over the course of which it can promote and demote the player without exposing him to other teams.
* Minor leaguers on the 40-man roster are on an optional assignment.
* They can be promoted and demoted an unlimited number of times within an option year.
* Once a player’s three option years are up, he must clear waivers before going to the minors.
* Options aren’t used on players who spend less than 20 days in the minors.
* Players with five years of service time can’t be optioned to the minors without consent.
Since Dom was already on the 40 Man the Option years issue is moot. They could have ping ponged him back and forth 20 times and it would make no issue (except to Dom’s Frequent flier account or EZ Pass).
Reading the comments to the Madson Article
Man, there are a lot of miserable people in this world who serve to accomplish nothing but complain.
If someone who has a lot of money wants to rebuild his house to make it more environmentally friendly going forward, why would you question that or say it’s suspect? Why would it be more interesting if some regular Schmo did it by himself on the cheap? Isn’t it better if he does this to try to help the ecosystem, however infinitessimally, rather than buy another gas-guzzling Hummer?
I thought I was cynical; turns out I’m more of a polyanna than I thought, I guess. People suck.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Some people seem to have this bizarre belief that going Green is some kind of Liberal plot to make the wealthy more money. Because, god knows there isn’t any money in oil or coal.
I’ve made a lot of Green improvements to my house and the range of reactions is fascinating when I talk to people about it.
Too many tinfoil hat wearers in this world who think everyone is conspiring against them to keep them from getting “theirs”.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Frankly, you have to be pretty deluded to think that other people give a shit about you enough to be “out to get you.”
by zfg on Sep 1, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
People get defensive. Someone going green makes them feel bad about their own carbon footprints, so they attack anyone who tries, especially if said person already makes them feel bad because they’re better looking/better at their jobs/richer than they are.
Keys to the Game: Offense, Offense!! Where are you?
by LeepinLizardz on Sep 2, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
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