No Cigar: Mets 4, Phillies 3

by FuquaManuel on Sep 11, 2010 8:36 PM EDT

Ugh.

Kyle Kendrick was decent enough, sure, allowing 2 runs in 5 innings. But his line today belies how poorly he actually pitched. He struggled with his command and surrendered a number of well-struck balls, many of which luckily found his fielder's gloves. In any case, facing a lineup with 7 left-handed hitters, 2 runs over 5 is about the best we could have hoped for from Kendrick.

The offense, meanwhile, was held in check for much of the day. It had been a full 3 games since the Phillies were last shut out at Citi Field and until the 8th inning, it appeared as if this scoring streak was sure to come to an end. The bats could muster mostly nothing against the apparently indomitable BIG PELF. Many bad at bats were had. Several double plays were grounded into. Nary a serious scoring threat was mounted.

Then, in the 8th, a glimmer of hope. With 1 out, Russ Glod doubled and was quickly driven in on a Shane Victorino single, chasing a defiant Pelfrey. His replacement, Bobby Parnell proceeded to allow a base hit to Placido Polanco and a 2-run single to Ryan Howard before striking out Jayson Werth to end the inning. Pinch hitting against replacement closer Hisanori Takahashi with 1 out in the 9th, Mike Sweeney came about 10 feet from tying the game, but was instead forced to settle for a double off the wall. A few weak groundouts later and the game was over.

Aside from the mostly invisible offense, the Phillies' chances were really hurt today by some questionable bullpen management by "accidental genius" Charlie Manuel. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th following a Raul Ibanez misplay in left, Manuel elected to have Jose Contreras intentionally walk the right-handed David Wright and have J.C. Romero face lefty Ike Davis. Of course, as anyone who has watched a Phillies game in the last 2 years could have predicted, Romero quickly ran the count to 3-0 and allowed a 2-run single up the middle on a 3-1 fastball. And that would prove to be the difference. Also seemingly hell-bent on making sure the Phillies' best reliever is shot should the team be fortunate enough to make the playoffs, Manuel called on Ryan Madson with the Phillies trailing by 1 in the 8th. Madson pitched a scoreless frame but, as Ryan Lawrence notes, he has now appeared in the team's last 5 games and 27 of their last 39. At some point Charlie will have to get him some rest. Yesterday or today would have been starts.

With the Braves' 6-3 victory over the Cardinals in extra innings, the Phillies slide back into a tie atop the NL East. Tomorrow, Roy Oswalt faces off against Jon Niese as the Phils try to lock up another series win.

via www.fangraphs.com

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The good news is that we now only need two more games from our fifth starter. The next one will be against the Nationals, and that could very well be KK’s last stand. Not that lifetime batter vs. pitcher stats are ever the greatest predictors of anything given sample size, but Kendrick’s lifetime numbers vs. nearly every single Nats hitter are comically awful.

by taco pal on Sep 11, 2010 8:51 PM EDT reply actions

I know. As much as it is dangerous to stick Worley in the middle of a pennant race, I hate the thought of sending Kendrick out there to face the Nationals- his numbers against them just this year (I haven’t even looked at his career numbers) are awful, that even if not better, Worley would have a hard time being worse.

by dannijd on Sep 11, 2010 9:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

LIfetime batter vs. pitcher numbers are not a good basis for making PT decisions. It’s OK to rest hitters occasionally against pitchers they struggle against since you’ve got to rest them occasionally anyway, and a small sample of statistics is better than nothing. But that doesn’t change the fact that small samples are basically meaningless. We can sit here and say Kyle might stink it up again, but Charlie should not make a major decision like that based on batter vs. pitcher stats of less than 20 AB per batter. Whoever he chooses, he should choose irrespective of the opponent.

by taco pal on Sep 11, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Is the aggregate of the numbers of all the Nats more meaningful then?

by phatj on Sep 12, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Relatively minor Charlie bash compared to the Romero brainfart, but I don’t know why ground ball machine Wilson Valdez goes up there with one out in the 9th and a RISP. OK, so if you tie the game, move Polanco to SS and insert Dobbs at 3B.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 11, 2010 9:02 PM EDT reply actions

Dobbs had already PHed earlier in the game. But one could argue that was a mistake too.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 11, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn’t recognize him at first with the new facial hair but that swing is destink’d.

by j reed on Sep 12, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Niese really owned us in a game earlier this year, but he’s given up a lot of runs in his last three starts (16.1 IP, 20 R, 15 ER, 4 HR, 8 BB, 18 K). Maybe we can get a little payback.

Incidentally, Josh Johnson is unlikely to start against us on Wednesday, which is nice. Unclear who they will start. Might just be a bullpen game for them.

by taco pal on Sep 11, 2010 9:48 PM EDT reply actions

Their tv station almost says that.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 11, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Gelb had a link to a blog that quoted interim-manager Rodriguez as saying that Wednesday will be a bullpen game if Johnson can not go.

by dannijd on Sep 11, 2010 10:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Just checked Twitter for word on Johnson. He was unable to throw his bullpen today and will NOT pitch Wednesday.

by dannijd on Sep 12, 2010 11:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I hate bullpen games, for both teams actually. For the Phils, I feel like it can be hard to get going offensively when you don’t face the same pitcher twice. Granted, that matchup obviously favors us with Halladay starting, but I’d rather face some scrub starter than a bullpen game.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 12, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Considering how the last scrub starter fared against the Phillies, I think I would prefer the Marlins pen, who the Phillies have hit against in their last several games. At any rate, I am glad the Phillies won’t face Johnson, although I am sorry it is under these circumstances.

by dannijd on Sep 12, 2010 1:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Bummer!

I slammed on Kendrick with my crazy fantasy world of 80% chance loss if he started but it seems he was his normal self from what this recaps says. So I feel like this game should have been won. I think I am more pissed at the freak luck that happens to the braves late in games. I must agree with everyone else when I say don’t put Romero in a tight game again with guys on base and please don’t kill Madson.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 11, 2010 9:52 PM EDT reply actions

I guess I shouldn’t have missed this sentence after his normal self. the Mets weren’t thrashing him either so I feel the game should have been won. Now it makes sense.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 11, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions

On a positive note:
The blueclaws took a 2-1 lead in their series, with a 6-0 shutout.

by philsandthrills on Sep 11, 2010 10:10 PM EDT reply actions

It’s a best of three, isn’t it?

by taco pal on Sep 11, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Valle HR. Pettibone 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K. Nice.

by taco pal on Sep 11, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup, they advance to the SAL finals. What a freaking line from Pettibone, huh?

by PhillyFriar on Sep 12, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank goodness Roy Oswalt is going tomorrow. Let’s hope Jimmy Rollins is ready to return soon. That situation in the 9th inning where you can’t pinch-hit for Valdez because you have no one to play shortstop points out two things: why it was wrong to use Dobbs as a pinch-hitter early, and how limited this roster is when there is only one bench player besides Valdez who can play any infield position except for first and third.
By the way, the recap hit all the right notes, but there were two other Mets relievers in the 8th inning, with ex-Brave great Manny Acosta getting the wild-swinging Jayson Werth.

by phillyinportland on Sep 11, 2010 10:54 PM EDT reply actions

Oh damnit. You are right. My bad.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 11, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Why did KK only throw 64 pitches today?

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Sep 11, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

He was getting hit hard (and being REALLY lucky that most of them were straight at fielders). I also think there may have been a desire to get some offense in there, although asking Greg Dobbs to help on offense is sort of like asking the store clerk to give you the winning numbers for the upcoming lottery.

by dannijd on Sep 11, 2010 11:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Haha, thanks for the information.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Sep 11, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Any time.

by dannijd on Sep 11, 2010 11:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

It was pretty gruesome seeing Exxon up in the 9th. Was Ransom claimed when we DFA’d him? Bocock? Just seems like someone should have seen this coming. Even if neither of those guys was around, they could have added someone when Robertson was cut rather than signing that stiff out of the Padres org who sucked at AAA.

by dajafi on Sep 12, 2010 12:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Ransom cleared waivers and accepted assignment to AAA. I have no clue why he was not brought back up either when the rosters expanded or when Rollins got hurt. I am hoping that the failure to add someone speaks to the Phillies belief that Rollins will be back quickly. That being said, it is still dangerous to spread the middle infield that thin.

by dannijd on Sep 12, 2010 1:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Brian Bocock has been called up. This makes me wonder whether Rollins is going to be put for longer than anticipated or if this is simply the team trying to avoid a situation like yesterday by being able to pinch hit for Valdez and then insert Bocock (who is not known for his bat either). No word on why Bocock and not Ransom got the call.

by dannijd on Sep 12, 2010 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Rivera allows a run to tie the game, then loads bases with on out. FUCKING JEFF FRANCOEUR get hit…yeah gets hit by the greatest reliever ever, to bring in the game winning.

by j reed on Sep 12, 2010 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

…run. He didn’t have to do anything but stand there and get hit by the ball.

by j reed on Sep 12, 2010 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Anybody who beats the Yankees is okay in my book

The Yankees announcers made the point tonight that Jeff Francouer is a great guy in the clubhouse, not a good guy but a GREAT guy. So, maybe he’s not that bad.

by phillyinportland on Sep 12, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Good point…

by dannijd on Sep 12, 2010 11:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Good recap, FM.

The Madson thing is really starting to bug me. I like that Charlie seems to recognize who his best reliever is, but not at the cost of ruining his season/career.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 12, 2010 12:19 PM EDT reply actions