In Play, Run(s): Phillies 11, Marlins 4
by WholeCamels on Sep 13, 2010 11:03 PM EDT
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PrintSeems like there's nothing the Phillies' hitters like more than having Joe Blanton on the mound. Once again, the offense came through with the right-hander on the mound, plating 11 runs in support of a very good pitching performance, en route to an 11-4 Phillies victory tonight in South Florida.
Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz paced the team's offensive attack with three hits and four RBI, including one of the Phillies' four home runs. Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, and Greg Dobbs also all went deep.
Blanton, for his part, threw six strong innings, allowing just a single run on a solo home run from Logan Morrison. Blanton struck out eight and walked two. Marlins' starter Andrew Miller was once again tattooed by the Phillies' offense, surrendering seven runs (five earned) on nine hits in just five innings pitched.
It wasn't all positive, as reliever David Herndon turned in another poor performance in what has been an up-and-(mostly) down season for the Rule V kid. Herndon allowed three runs on three hits (all for extra bases) in his one complete inning of work in the eighth. Yes, of course he had that rope because of the huge lead his teammates staked him to, but still. Yecch.
The Braves shut out the Nationals, 4-0, so the Phillies remain one game up in the National League Eastern Division.
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nice title WC.
Seemed like after the first inning, every ball hit off of Miller was a rocket until they pulled him. Even cookies drilled two, one for a hit and one that Miller had to catch in self defense.
Personally, I think Herndon’s performance this year has, if anything, been encouraging and more up than down. I mean, he clearly sucked tonight, but coming into the game he had:
ERA 4.10
FIP 3.32
xFIP 4.24
GB% 58.6
That isn’t bad. Rule 5 or not, he’s done better for free than a lot of other guys we would have had to pay for. If he improves by a non-crazy amount between now and March, he could make the team out of spring training on his own merits. I don’t think his chances are any worse than those of Schwimer or Mathieson or any of those guys.
His K rate has increased drastically over the course of the season, although his overall stats haven’t improved since his walks have also increased. But at least that suggests that he’s theoretically capable of striking people out, which would be a very good thing.
it’s not bad, but it’s not good either. I’d guess with his ERA between his FIP and xFIP you’d not be saying he’s lucky or unlucky. While he is better than many free agent “established veterans” could have been, I’d say equivalent production could be obtained from Mathieson, who wouldn’t handcuff you into keeping him on the roster for the duration of the season regardless of performance.
The Rule V thing is nice because he’s cheap, but a giant anchor that drags down the rest of the team wrt roster moves.
I think one more stat the would be more telling for him is how he did with inherited runners vs league average. Without the ability to fan people, it’s probably not great.
I’d say equivalent production could be obtained from Mathieson, who wouldn’t handcuff you into keeping him on the roster for the duration of the season regardless of performance.
If his performance hasn’t been bad, why and for whom would you have wanted to send him down? Mathieson? The guy whose performance would have been equivalent?
The Rule V thing is nice because he’s cheap, but a giant anchor that drags down the rest of the team wrt roster moves.
See above. What specific roster move that would have benefited the team went unmade because of Herndon? I like Nelson Figueroa but he hasn’t pitched any better than Herndon this year.
I think one more stat the would be more telling for him is how he did with inherited runners vs league average. Without the ability to fan people, it’s probably not great.
Herndon has a high IS/R%, but the sample size is too small to be meaningful. Fielding independent statistics measure pitching performance independent of sequencing, so looking at inherited runners adds little to the analysis. As I already mentioned, Herndon’s strikeout rate has increased dramatically over the course of the season.
I agree with you in general about Herndon, but I think you could argue that Figueroa has pitched better. in relief, he’s pitched 32 innings, allowed 26 hits, and struck out 24 to 7 walks. his overall FIP and xFIP are basically the same as Herndon’s, but Figueroa has been much better in relief than starting (3.43 SO:BB compared to 1.42), and I’m not sure where FIP and xFIP splits like that are available.
by perfectdepth on Sep 14, 2010 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
It could be that Figueroa’s a little bit better. Another factor that needs to be taken into account, however, is that there is a long-term benefit to the Rule 5 process. Herndon will be cost-controlled and under exclusive team control for several years. Even if he’s a little bit below Figueroa now, he might be a much better long-term asset. Figueroa isn’t under team control.
agreed
and, of course, Herndon is only 24 while Figueroa is 36.
by perfectdepth on Sep 14, 2010 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions
perhaps Mathieson might’ve been better, but because Herndon was prohibited from being sent down, it’s not feasible to assess if that’s the case.
Thankfully were talking middle relief, but it’s equivalent to Jimmy in leadoff or Lidge as the closer. You CANT take that position away from Herndon unless you are willing to completely sever the tie.
he’s inherited 22 runners and allowed 11 to score. I don’t think a league average IS% would be particularly useful, but for comparison, Romero has allowed 10 of 27 IR to score, Contreras has allowed 8 of 22, Durbin has allowed 4 of 26, and Madson has allowed 3 of 12.
out of every pitcher who’s inherited at least 20 runners (130 so far this year), Herndon ranks tenth in highest percentage scored (Romero 30th, Contreras 33rd, Durbin 119th).
by perfectdepth on Sep 14, 2010 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions
What website did you get the rankings from? I could only find them player-by-player.
In any event, the benefit of looking at inherited runner statistics (notwithstanding the sample size issue) is that it can help correct misconceptions fostered by ERA.. Once you move to the more advanced metrics, however, much of that corrective effect is already incorporated into the metrics.
the B-R play index—definitely worth the money!
and yeah, I don’t think IR numbers are all that useful either once you get beyond straight ERA for the reasons you’re saying.
by perfectdepth on Sep 14, 2010 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions
perhaps xFIP or FIP captures the performance, but that’s one of the reasons I asked, because ERA doesn’t capture it (and he also gets dinged for runners that other guys let in that he let on).
I would think being in the bottom 8% or so of inherited runners allowed to score is a very very bad place to be.
Not really, no. That would only be the case if the stat were particularly meaningful, which it isn’t, or if the stat measured more than only a small subset of overall pitching performance, which it doesn’t.
I disagree.
The reliever’s job is to prevent runs from scoring (as it is for any pitcher).
Now…I’ll give that it’s unfair to one reliever or another how often he comes in with runners in scoring position, or the number of outs he has to work with. Every situation is different. The 1 IP, up by 3 runs saves is cake.
The bases loaded, 0 outs, up 1 save is much harder to get, but they both count the same in the stats.
That being said….if a reliever can’t induce GIDPs or Ks, it is a definite weakness and hinders his ability at stranding runners, which is a critical part of his job.
I’ll give you that the stat measures a small subset of pitching, but it’s a very important subset.
I think TP’s point is not that whether inherited runners are allowed to score isn’t meaningful to the team, because clearly it is, but rather that it’s not meaningful to evaluation of the pitcher because it’s too small a sample to be predictive.
It would take a much larger sample than the typical relief pitcher gets in a single season. And Herndon has a smaller sample than the typical relief pticher.
Anyway, nearly every flawed stat is improved if you make the sample large enough. ERA – even W-L record, for that matter – tend to (though do not always) converge with reality as the sample gets larger. But it would be silly to say, “oh this guy has 1000 major league IP now, so now we can look at his ERA.” You already had the advanced metrics all along, plus advanced metrics over a large sample are still better than flawed metrics over a large sample.
…if a reliever can’t induce GIDPs or Ks, it is a definite weakness…
except Herndon should be good at inducing double plays; he’s a fairly strong groundball pitcher. he’s actually produced the fifth most GDP on the team, behind Halladay, Kendrick, Hamels, and Blanton.
by perfectdepth on Sep 14, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. And also (for the third time) Herndon’s K rate has improved dramatically over the course of the season. 3.9 before the break, 6.2 after the break. The sample is small enough that this could be a statistically blip, but it’s also large enough that people need to reserve judgment on whether Herndon can or can’t induce Ks.
I won’t go as far as to say that Herndon can’t induce strikeouts, but the evidence is pretty strong that he’ll struggle in that area throughout his career. Frankly, his career minor strikeout rate of 5.2 (virtually the same as reliever and starter, too) is what kept him off my Top 30 list before the season.
Now, he’s certainly exceeded my expectations, but I think his ceiling is essentially Clay Condrey 2.0 — a serviceable middle reliever, certainly, but lacking the kind of upside that would generally warrant a roster spot on a championship caliber club.
That’s a fair point. I guess what gives me pause is that he’s been quoted as saying that his slider’s improved a lot this year, and the learning (or improvement) of a new pitch is one of the few things that can actually change a pitcher’s trajectory. Herndon saying something isn’t proof by any means, but it at least makes me want to reserve judgment on whether his increased K rate might have been caused by something other than a statistical fluke.
Chooch has been the team MVP this year, from his defense, bat, and ability to handle the pitching staff. Easily one of the most underrated catchers in baseball.
A whole two games without Madson pitching? What sort of Devilry is this?
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 14, 2010 1:26 AM EDT reply actions
I’m not sure if this is good news or not, but I was watching MLB Network tonight and Harold Reynolds and Kevin Millar ran down their top nine teams right now. Braves were #9, Padres didn’t make the top 9. I believe the Rockies were #5, Yankees #4, Rays #3, Giants (?!) #2, and the Phillies were #1. Krukie had the Phillies #4 on his weekly top 5 list – Yankees and Rays were 1 & 2 for him.
by phillyinportland on Sep 14, 2010 3:09 AM EDT reply actions
Heard that on MLB Network Radio
Awesome, but at the same time surprising. Hope it’s not a black cat.
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Sep 14, 2010 3:33 AM EDT up reply actions
It was sort of a stupid list. I mean, I love the Phillies, but there’s no way the Phillies top any list as best in baseball. Can’t even say hottest, b/c that was the Rox.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I’m not sure I would put them at the top either, but doing a quick look up of total wins and records in the last 10 (which is probably about the level of analysis these guys put into it), I can see how someone would pick them — they’re one of the top teams, and one of the hotter top teams:
Yankees: 87, 5-5
Rays: 87, 3-7
Twins: 85, 8-2
Phillies: 84, 7-3
Braves: 83, 5-5
I would probably go with the Twins based on this, but they’re lower profile. The Phillies, as two-time NL Champs, look like a juggernaut making another run.
Hard to believe after the incredible starts by the Rays and then the Yankees, that they have only three more wins than the Phillies. I like the way the Twins have crept up to the point that the winner of the AL East may end up with the #2 seed. Wouldn’t that be a great turn of events.
by phillyinportland on Sep 14, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
the same crew that was nob-slobbering the Braves a few weeks ago. I’d just as soon have the Phillies win a division in total obscurity.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 14, 2010 6:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Two possible reasons to worry:
1) superstition (“black cat”), which I refuse to get sucked into
2) fear that expectations will be raised and the team will falter under the pressure — if this was 2007 or even ’08 this might be a valid concern, but this team strikes me as being beyond that
WL, I agree — I’d rather have them sneak up on people (thank you Krukie for doing your part), but overall, I’d say meh, whatever.
Not total obscurity, but as long as the Rays and Yankees are duking it out, and the Rockies surge, the Phils-Braves will be the 2A or 2B story. I’ll take it.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 14, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed that the 2A or 2B story is a better place to be. Different sport, but I think the Eagles suffered under the intense focus of being the top story – how many years did we see Sal Palantonio in the parking lot outside Lincoln Field? – and they might have done better with a little less expectations. That said, there certainly are Phillies fans who are already expecting the Series title. I read one comment yesterday that said that if the team doesn’t win the World Series they might as well not make the playoffs. That’s some twisted way of looking at postseason play.
by phillyinportland on Sep 14, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
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